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Yup, that's part of the problem.
I agree - they seem to have gotten a lot better. Oh, they'll still have 19 reporters on the ground during an event like this and will go all-Barry all the time.....but, that's their raison d'etre. Cantore can still get hysterical, but even he has toned it down some.
And this is the problem with any media service (I'm looking at you 24-hour news channels) doing the fear mongering stuff to get ratings. Even if you decide to stop doing that and actually legitimize yourself later, it's too late. The trust is gone. And, you can ruin it for other services that never resorted to that. There are local mets in LA right now who are probably pleading with citizens to evacuate and to get out and to higher ground. And a large amount of people are watching and thinking, "Pfft. Look at this idiot trying to scare up ratings." And this will be their last 24 hours alive.
TS's will almost always be unique looking. There is circulation, but you usually don't get a closed eye circulation until it's a hurricane. That's why the worst side of a TS is on the eastern side of the circulation. If you look at the visible you can see the center of circulation is off the coast of central LA. And you can see the comma trying to build from underneath the circulation (south of it) and curling up around it to the northeast. Most building will take place over sea, and that's why the largest cloud cover is over the GOM. The ocean is the fuel along with the sun. So it's really not that odd looking right now.
For New Orleans, it’s not going that level of a storm where there will still be cleanup apparent to visitors after a month. There could be localized flooding of homes. People throwing out carpets and wet furniture. Maybe. But nothing that would affect business-as-usual for visitors to the city.
I’m more worried about the Lafayette and B.R. areas than here in N.O. Most here will be fine.
Yep, just came to post that for you. It may get moved again. I think it's suppose to still be raining then, which is kind of a problem.
I’m afraid I may have already been slightly overserved last night. Going out to get more whiskey.On the way! What time will you be serving?
If I refrained from visiting New Orleans because of rain I'd never get there. I've driven I-10 plenty of times when it was a car wash until Mobile. Hopefully Sunday it will be tracking further north towards BR.
There's rain. And then there's flooding rain. Like a month or two worth of rain in a 24 hour period.
Here's later Euro run from about 7 PM CDT last night (if I'm interpreting the time correctly). It shows the entire NO metro area between 4 and 7 inches of rain over 96 hours, between runtime and 7:00 Monday evening.
The key is, you track the circulation (I feel like I should get paid $10 every time I say that word) and not the clouds and convection. You can see where the center of circulation is. It's just off the coast. The general thought is it'll move slightly more west before it begins its trek inland. But the sudden move north seems to have happened unlike any model projection. I'm not saying it will be more east than the current track shows, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was. And unless they live in northwest LA, they probably won't be unaffected, unfortunately.
Looks darn near untrackable. Just not organized tightly enough.
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It's interesting to me that, looking at comments on this and other boards, most people near Louisiana's coast -- no matter how far east or west they are -- feel like Barry is going to largely avoid them and make a mess of somewhere else. We can't all be right
Agreed. Although Morgan City is where it looks like is really going to get whacked.
It's not like we haven't had false alarms before. I mean ... you don't exactly want to totally count on worst-case models being wrong. At the same time, it's not exactly astonishing when the worst case doesn't play out.
EDIT: That said, BR is very much in the crosshairs right now. If I lived there, I'd be a lot more concerned for my own homestead.
Whenever I think of Morgan City I think of that boat with the Virgin Mary statue coming off the bridge. Best wishes to them, solid, tough people.
Was going to say that nothing's flooded now around here. Then I caught the Wednesday caveat.
Yes but the Wednesday events played into that. The Washington Ave / Palmetto canal was stunning.
So far, this is holding up. Gretna, LA (across the Mississippi River to the SW of New Orleans) had 0.2" of rain yesterday. Forecast for today is a little over 3.5".Henry Ford said:
Locals are now lightening up and posting jokes about it.
Their wishes came true: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLABATON225?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdashHenry Ford said:
I don't know if you meant the bolded in general, or specifically in reference to Hurricane Barry. If you meant Barry ... so far as I'm aware, that storm was taking in dry air from the SE U.S. since at least Wednesday 7/10. All that dry air kept Barry from forming a coherent center of rotation until very late in the game, and kept the northern half of the storm virtually cloud-free. The dry air mass certainly wasn't a last-second thing.
The dry air was there, but the models were taking it into consideration. Even with the dry air, the convection and eventual shift of the precip from the south to the eastern side was what was going to bring the rains. But the dry air pushed through and did not react as modeled.
I didn't say they were. And I agree totally with what you/they are saying about evacuations. I was actually asking a serious question. I thought he had failed to order an evacuation. Or he ordered it too late. Or something. Don't really remember. But swear he caught crap for something about evacuations.
I've posted about this guy before, but local weather maven Nash Roberts' (1918-2010) hurricane chats with New Orleanians are such warm memories that I feel compelled to post about him again.
Visuals:
