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TheWinz

Official 2019 FBG Subscriber Contest

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Humming along around 30 points above the Turk’s 9 Circles of Hades...for now.  However, small rooster and not crazy about all the risks. There are enough that should keep me out of the final 250. Need quite the perfect storm for my plan to pay off. 

Wagon hitched and welded to the backs of Mahomes & Kelce as are (160) others. Late bye is scary so the lone backup at each position must come through. Core needs to remain healthy Connor, Golliday and Kupp  (1 team left with this trio)  The Turk has graciously accepted the other teams as tribute for my longevity.

 

Mahomes (6) 543   Trubisky (0) 282 - Trubisky plays NYG on Mahomes bye week. 11 teams have this duo

RB flex 5 times   Connor (5) 271  Carson (5) 2832   The Duke (3) 2454   Breida (4) 2039 Justice (0) 526

WR flex 7 times   Golladay (4) 293   Kupp (4) 735   Dede (4) 1577   MVS (1) 1482   Stills (3) 90   Gordon (3) 3230

TE flex hahahahaha   Kelce (6) 810   Herndon (0) 450 - shifted from Andrews for early bye and lower injury risk. Ask me later how that move panned out.

 

Overall happy with this blend of herd, high ceiling and less popular studs.  Stills could be my wild card filling the Fuller V role when he goes down for the playoff run.  Yes I have more sacrifices offered to our benevolent, merciful Turk. 

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4 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Speaking of similar rosters, this guy qualifies with lots, I am sure...

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2019/109412.php

The top 10 most common players when the contest opened were Gordon (7177), Jackson (5542), Carson (5391), Johnson (5246), Singletary (5023), Lockett (3938), Breida (3903), Andrews (3896), Chubb (3707), and Valdes-Scantling (3433)

Not only does he have all 10 of the above, he decide to roster #'s 11 & 12 too (Westbrook & Waller).  How many players do you have in common with this guy?

 

five eight after i followed the link

Edited by barackdhouse

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21 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

I thought he checked out ok after that game?

Kamara missed practice Wednesday

I don't have the link but it was reported "high ankle type injury". 

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6 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

Kamara missed practice Wednesday

I don't have the link but it was reported "high ankle type injury". 

Here are the last 2 blurbs from Rotoworld:

 

Alvin Kamara (ankle, knee) was sidelined for Wednesday's practice.

Even though Kamara isn't expected to practice this week, he still believes he has "a shot to play." All signs point to him missing Sunday following the signing of Zach Zenner as insurance. Whatever the case, Latavius Murray needs to be prioritized off waivers as an every-down back in the event Kamara's ruled out for Week 7 against the Bears.

SOURCE: Amie Just on Twitter

Oct 16, 2019, 5:33 PM ET

 

NFL Media's Tom Pelissero reports Alvin Kamara has "a high ankle-type issue" that will limit him in practice.

Kamara still believes he has "a shot to play" this Sunday against the Bears, but he's best viewed as questionable for now. The star running back was clearly slowed by his ankle injury last week, which led to a season-low 11 carries. If Kamara can't get healthy in time, Latavius Murray would slide into a featured role as a volume-based RB2 for fantasy purposes. Kamara's availability in practice this week will be extremely important for his Week 7 status.

RELATED: 

Latavius Murray

SOURCE: Tom Pelissero on Twitter

Oct 15, 2019, 8:38 PM ET

Edited by TheWinz

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Josh Gordon... 2019s Marquis Goodwin... the WR everyone said you must have! 

 

Should have went with Beasley or Dorsett, whom I felt were better deals. Fool me once (Goodwin) shame on you... fool me twice (Gordon) shame on me!

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Cutline still at zero.  Only 3260 entries scored points.

QB - Mahomes (543 - 10.00), Flacco (182 - 10.65), Lock (2 - 0.00)

RB - Thompson (787 - 0.00), McCoy (228 - 8.60), Freeman (147 - 14.70), Lindsay (102 - 3.70), Williams (39 - 1.60), Riddick (15 - 0.00), Booker (6 - 0.00)

WR - Hardman (521 - 10.80), Sanders (491 - 11.00), Watkins (293 - 0.00), Hill (249 - 16.40), Sutton (175 - 14.70), Robinson (33 - 6.10), Hamilton (24 - 2.40), Patrick (2 - 0.00)

TE - Kelce (810 - 13.40), Fant (121 - 2.20)

K - Butker (895 - 13.20), McManus (450 - 0.00)

D - DEN (349 - 1.00), KC (341 - 17.00)

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Somewhat nervous this week...$54 on bye

Chubb

Godwin

Gay

Panthers D

 

Edited by JoeSteeler

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1 hour ago, JoeSteeler said:

Somewhat nervous this week...$54 on bye

Chubb

Godwin

Gay

Panthers D

 

We knew from the start this would be a tough week, but that's true for a lot of people.

Some of the most popular and best players are out this week, Panthers, browns, Steelers, Bucs. Which will likely mean a lower cutoff. 

Chubb, OBJ, gay, and Gordon out for me.

 

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There's always one

The leader after last night's games (with 81.15) is carrying an 18-man roster, nine of those guys from Denver (4) and KC (5).

Enjoy your 15 seconds of fame, Entry 110678. 

Duke/A Jones/Sony/Thielen -6.10, -10.80 and Engram/Rudolph at TE (where, I guess he could technically get another flex).

Butker has 13.2 for him, so that's not increasing much.  Jags and Hawks are his D's.  

20 points per man should do it :)

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Through 6 weeks, the overall contest survival rate is 39.79%.  Here are the numbers for roster size:

18 - 1469/4651 = 31.58%
19 - 709/1833 = 38.68%
20 - 646/1521 = 42.47%
21 - 583/1230 = 47.40%
22 - 467/1014 = 46.06%
23 - 354/715 = 49.51%
24 - 261/530 = 49.25%
25 - 167/345 = 48.41%
26 - 118/249 = 47.39%
27 - 92/193 = 47.67%
28 - 63/113 = 55.75%
29 - 41/85 = 48.24%
30 - 46/128 = 35.94%

Besides the spike for the 28-man teams, only one of these stands out to me - the low % for the 30-man roster.  My guess is because those owners were so concerned about making a max roster, they weren't selecting the players they really wanted.

 

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On 10/14/2019 at 9:35 AM, hagmania said:

I hope Barkley is healthy to cover for King Christian's bye.

 

:scared:

Well, they're telling me there's a chance.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Through 6 weeks, the overall contest survival rate is 39.79%.  Here are the numbers for roster size:

18 - 1469/4651 = 31.58%
19 - 709/1833 = 38.68%
20 - 646/1521 = 42.47%
21 - 583/1230 = 47.40%
22 - 467/1014 = 46.06%
23 - 354/715 = 49.51%
24 - 261/530 = 49.25%
25 - 167/345 = 48.41%
26 - 118/249 = 47.39%
27 - 92/193 = 47.67%
28 - 63/113 = 55.75%
29 - 41/85 = 48.24%
30 - 46/128 = 35.94%

Besides the spike for the 28-man teams, only one of these stands out to me - the low % for the 30-man roster.  My guess is because those owners were so concerned about making a max roster, they weren't selecting the players they really wanted.

 

Isn't the overall contest survival rate just using the two numbers of 'how many people entered' and 'the last cutoff number'? We could calculate survivorship of every week from here on out minus the 'championship' weeks, yeah?

I was wondering more about overall survivorship for each team size, so I did it.

Overall survivorship for team sizes (number still alive/last cutoff - 5000 in this case) :

18 - 29.4%

19 - 14.2%

20 - 12.3%

21 - 11.7%

22 - 9.3%

23 - 7.1%

24 - 5.2%

25 - 3.3%

26 - 2.4%

27 - 1.8%

28 - 1.3%

29 - 0.8%

30 - 0.9%

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15 minutes ago, L3gion said:

Isn't the overall contest survival rate just using the two numbers of 'how many people entered' and 'the last cutoff number'? We could calculate survivorship of every week from here on out minus the 'championship' weeks, yeah?

I was wondering more about overall survivorship for each team size, so I did it.

Overall survivorship for team sizes (number still alive/last cutoff - 5000 in this case) :

18 - 29.4% - 36.9%

19 - 14.2% - 14.5%

20 - 12.3% - 12.1%

21 - 11.7% - 9.8%

22 - 9.3% - 8.0%

23 - 7.1% - 5.7%

24 - 5.2% - 4.2%

25 - 3.3% - 2.7%

26 - 2.4% - 2.0%

27 - 1.8% - 1.5%

28 - 1.3% - 0.9%

29 - 0.8% - 0.7%

30 - 0.9% - 1.0%

I will take your numbers one step further, and list the percentage of each that we started the contest with.  Typically, as weeks pass, the smallest rosters get eliminated at a quicker rate.  As an example, right now, 29.38% of the remaining teams have 18 roster spots.  That would calculate to 73 teams reaching the top 250.  I am betting less than 73 make it.  On the other end, right now, 0.92% of the remaining teams have 30 roster spots.  That would calculate to 2 teams reaching the top 250.  I am betting more than 2 make it.

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My QBs are Mahomes and Foles, so this is probably my last week. Kamara, Chubb, Evans too. 

Edited by TwinTurbo
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What game is most important to you this week?  For me, it's ARI at NYG.  I have $64 invested (DJ, Fitz, Engram, and NYG D).

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Missed the cut by 7.5 points. Waller on the BYE & Engram missed the game.

i still had a chance with MVS on SNF, but alas, it was not meant to be. 

good luck to everyone left active, and next year imma draft more than 2 TE. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Missed the cut by 7.5 points. Waller on the BYE & Engram missed the game.

i still had a chandler with MVS on SNF, but alas, it was not meant to be. 

good luck to everyone left active, and next year imma draft more than 2 TE. 

That completely blows.  You went pretty thin at RB, but in the end, Kupp, Kirk, and Engram did you in week 6.

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2 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

That completely blows.  You went pretty thin at RB, but in the end, Kupp, Kirk, and Engram did you in week 6.

Yep. I was riding a pretty good wave with Carson, Godwin & Hill coming back really helped.

but losing Mahomes probably woulda ended my contest anyway a week later, so...

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

What game is most important to you this week?  For me, it's ARI at NYG.  I have $64 invested (DJ, Fitz, Engram, and NYG D).

Ravens-Seahawks

Jackson, Carson, Lockett, Andrews, Seattle def

$63

 

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I know Josh Gordon hasn't lit it up, but he is owned by 65% of the remaining entries.  He has put up games of 16, 14, 10, 7, 3, and 1, and has likely been used a few times by most.  The reason I am mentioning this is because if he sits (which is very likely), there will be many teams running with only 3 WR options this week.  The most common number of WR's left in the contest is 5, and Samuel, Godwin, and Juju were all in the top 8.  Also, Westbrook and MVS were the 3rd and 4th most common, and neither are a sure thing this week.

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Although I will be one of the Gordon/Westbrook/MVS owners hurting at WR this week, with so many byes or injuries for top players such as Kamara, Mahomes, McCaffery etc. who I do not have I feel like I still have a decent chance. 

Edited by huthut

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On 10/10/2019 at 8:57 PM, QuizGuy66 said:

This is always great - may I humbly suggest a Billy Beane award?  Entry that has survived using the least amound of $ over the course of the whole contest.  (Any perhaps a Billy Bean Jr award for the lowest $ used on average each week)

:)

-QG

Okay, I have the first one of these:

Entry 109476 has had only 20 of their 30 players count so far this season. Their 10 idle players are the most of any living team. Six teams have 9.

Entry 109476 is also the team with the most idle money: those ten players cost $79. Entry 100363 has survived with $76 of idle money (8 players). No other living team is over $68.

Several 18-player teams have gotten by using only 13 guys so far. Similarly, several 19-player teams have used only 14 and lived. Entry 108954 has used the smallest percentage of their players (among living teams) for the season so far, only getting scoring from 17 out of 26 guys (65%).

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15 hours ago, jdkapow said:

Okay, I have the first one of these:

Entry 109476 has had only 20 of their 30 players count so far this season. Their 10 idle players are the most of any living team. Six teams have 9.

Entry 109476 is also the team with the most idle money: those ten players cost $79. Entry 100363 has survived with $76 of idle money (8 players). No other living team is over $68.

Several 18-player teams have gotten by using only 13 guys so far. Similarly, several 19-player teams have used only 14 and lived. Entry 108954 has used the smallest percentage of their players (among living teams) for the season so far, only getting scoring from 17 out of 26 guys (65%).

:thanks:

-QG

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16 hours ago, jdkapow said:

Okay, I have the first one of these:

Entry 109476 has had only 20 of their 30 players count so far this season. Their 10 idle players are the most of any living team. Six teams have 9.

Entry 109476 is also the team with the most idle money: those ten players cost $79. Entry 100363 has survived with $76 of idle money (8 players). No other living team is over $68.

Several 18-player teams have gotten by using only 13 guys so far. Similarly, several 19-player teams have used only 14 and lived. Entry 108954 has used the smallest percentage of their players (among living teams) for the season so far, only getting scoring from 17 out of 26 guys (65%).

3 for $38

Green and Herndon still haven't played. Moncrief has been a disaster 

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I suspect we’re looking at an irrationally low cut line this week.

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so... I have no WRs this week...

 

Do I have a chance?

QB - Allen, Foles, Jackson

RB - Gor, D Singletary, David Johnson, Duke Johnson, Christian McCaffrey

WR - Landry, Kirk, Samuel, Gordon

TE - Kelce, Ertz, Andrews

K - Gonzalez, Seibert, Gay

49ers, Packers, Buccaneers

I'm assuming I'm gonna need 20s from Ertz and Andrews, right?

64.3 so far, my FLEX spots are 2.3 and 0.2, so all of Andrews' and Ertz' points are gonna score, plus Lamar Jackson -25.3.

I just have to survive here and I'm ok! :wall::lmao:

Edited by larry_boy_44

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:unsure:

After 1pm games 91.25 + (LJax/Brady - 25.65) + (Carson - 2.1/2.6/6.6) + (K Allen/AJ Brown - 2.1/2.1/2.6/10.5) + (Andrews - 2.1/2.6/10.1) + (Sea/Jets - 2.0)

:scared:

-QG

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Hello m Jones. Plus 50 over cut so I should be good.  

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EDIT: Robinson’s TD got me to within 6 points. 
 

This may be it for me. Sitting 15 points below the cutoff. 

Remaining players:

Brady - 24.05

A. Jeffrey - 3.10

J. Gordon (ruled out)

Cowboys - 0.0

Jets - 0.0 

 

 

Edited by chocula
Update

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Ugh - not looking good.

After 4pm games 115.95 + (Brady - 25.65) + (Jets - 2.00)

Only 3.80 above the cut line :(

Either need Brady to go absolutely nuts or have the Jets defense get a fluky big performance.

:kicksrock:

-QG

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I hate seeing guys in this thread dropping out.  Would love to see the winner come from here (myself first, but y’all are my second choice).  😏

Good week for me, moving on and hoping as many regulars as possible join me.

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Players for tonight and tomorrow:

T Pollard RB DAL 1297 25.94

Cowboys DT DAL 1262 25.24

M Gallup WR DAL 1261 25.22

B Maher PK DAL 477 9.54

D Prescott QB DAL 353 7.06

E Elliott RB DAL 259 5.18

J Witten TE DAL 247 4.94

A Cooper WR DAL 184 3.68

R Cobb WR DAL 80 1.6

M Sanders RB PHI 626 12.52

Eagles DT PHI 534 10.68

C Wentz QB PHI 357 7.14

Z Ertz TE PHI 193 3.86

J Elliott PK PHI 179 3.58

J Arcega-Whiteside WR PHI 158 3.16

D Goedert TE PHI 129 2.58

A Jeffery WR PHI 99 1.98

N Agholor WR PHI 81 1.62

J Howard RB PHI 59 1.18

T Brady QB NE 970 19.4

Patriots DT NE 787 15.74

S Michel RB NE 479 9.58

J Edelman WR NE 266 5.32

J White RB NE 157 3.14

P Dorsett WR NE 92 1.84

B Watson TE NE 69 1.38

D Harris RB NE 44 0.88

Jets DT NYJ 967 19.34

S Darnold QB NYJ 676 13.52

C Herndon TE NYJ 449 8.98

J Crowder WR NYJ 291 5.82

T Montgomery RB NYJ 249 4.98

R Anderson WR NYJ 241 4.82

L Bell RB NYJ 75 1.5

I don't think anyone's missing - I took out players ruled out.

Average entry has 2.73 players

:unsure:

-QG

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Huh. After 4 PM games and into tonight's action, looking at eight above the cut line with Darnold, Michel (-4.40) and Patriots D to go.

Will be sweating it all. 

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3 hours ago, dbc925 said:

I hate seeing guys in this thread dropping out.  Would love to see the winner come from here (myself first, but y’all are my second choice).  😏

Good week for me, moving on and hoping as many regulars as possible join me.

I agree. So many people here shared their lineup, helped others, gave recommendations and did so much for the good of other players.  It would be great to see a regular from here win it. 

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Any guesses as to how much the cutline moves up on Monday night?  ~10 points seem right given there's not a ton of heavily owned players?  If I'm doing the math right only an average of <1.5 players per team active for MNF (not counting Gordon).

Edited by Stray Doug

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10 minutes ago, Stray Doug said:

Any guesses as to how much the cutline moves up on Monday night?  ~10 points seem right given there's not a ton of heavily owned players?  If I'm doing the math right only an average of <1.5 players per team active for MNF (not counting Gordon).

Really depends on how many teams below the cutline own players in the games.

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My worst week by a lot, but I should make it. 17ish above the cut line.

Edited by Abrantes

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Cut line sitting at 120.95 going into Monday Night's game.  Guessing the line will stay under 130, but we will find out tomorrow.

Only had a few guys show up today.  Good luck to all who advance.

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Quick analysis of 27 teams that are currently within 0.5 of the cutoff (scoring 129.45-129.90):

 

6 could move a lot

Brady-0, Pats-0

Michel-0, Herndon-0

Brady-25, White-0, Edelman-9, Gostkowski-16

Michel-4, Edelman-5

White-7, Herndon-0, Jets-1

Darnold-25, Crowder-3, Herndon-3

 

8 should move some

Bell-4, Anderson-11

Michel-6

Anderdon-4

Anderson-7

Pats-0

Brady-25, White-3, LaCosse-7

Darnold-32, Bell-7, Crowder-7

Darnold-20, Montgomery-7, Jets-1

 

6 likely to only move a little

Brady/Darnold-25, Jets-5

Brady-25

Darnold-26, Jets-0

Montgomery-3

Jets-1

Pats-2, LaCosse-2

 

4 might not move (or only a little)

Brady-26, Pats-11

Pats-5

Jets-5

Jets-11

 

3 won't move

No players

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Well I’m out kerryons injury couldn’t have come at a worse time with no Chubb and garbage mixion not doing enough . I really hope someone from this thread wins I’ll be rooting and following 

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