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Official 2019 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

Here's what the boys are rumbling for.......

1st Place: $20,000 + lifetime All Pro subscription to Footballguys.com + 2020 FPC entry
2nd Place: $4,000 + FPC 3-Pack + 3-year Season Long Pro subscription to Footballguys.com
3rd Place: $2,000 + FPC 3-Pack + 3-year Season Long Pro subscription to Footballguys.com
4th Place: $1,500 + FPC Entry + 3-year Season Long Pro subscription to Footballguys.com
5th Place: $1,000 + FPC Entry + 2020 Season Long Pro subscription to Footballguys.com
6th place: $500 + 2020 Season Long Pro subscription to Footballguys.com
7th place: $300 + 2020 Season Long Pro subscription to Footballguys.com
8th place: $200 + 2020 Season Long Pro subscription to Footballguys.com
9th place: $125 + 2020 Season Long Pro subscription to Footballguys.com
10th place: $75 + 2020 Season Long Pro subscription to Footballguys.com

 
Barring a huge unexpected score from someone not in top 25, I think most likely winner will be from this group of 5:

100053: Current Leader (me, nobody remaining)

106666: Needs 9.55 from D Bailey

100674: Needs 36.1 from (Rodgers - 40.2) + (A Jones - 6.5) + (Adams - 10) + (Crosby - 10.8) + (Packers - 0)

101439: Needs 25.5 from MVS or Thielen - 2.3 and possibly the other of MVS/Thielen - 15.70 (ConstruxBoy)

101123: Needs 46.8 from (Cousins - 28.35) + (J Williams - 9.4) + (MVS - 4.5)

 
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1. Stray Dog 623.25

2. ??? 619.6 + Bailey - 5.9

3. 610.65

4. 605.35

5. 605.03

6. 598.45

7. Construxboy 597.75 + theilen - 2.3

 
Stray Doug said:
Barring a huge unexpected score from someone not in top 25, I think most likely winner will be from this group of 4:

100053: Current Leader (me, nobody remaining)
106666: Needs 9.55 from D Bailey
100674: Needs 36.1 from (Rodgers - 40.2) + (A Jones - 6.5) + (Adams - 10) + (Crosby - 10.8) + (Packers - 0)
101439: Needs 25.5 from MVS or Thielen - 2.3 and possibly the other of MVS/Thielen - 15.70 (ConstruxBoy) 
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This will be exciting for you.

Construe is expected to get 12.4 from Thielen which will bum him 10.1

Bailey i.e. Projected to score 9.5 Dodds which would be a .05 difference for $15k.  Tremblay has him at 9.6 which would really suck.

Adams 17.6 - 10 = 7.6, Jones 14.9 - 6.5 = 8.3, GB 8 - 0 = 8.  That's 22.1 expected gain.

 
BassNBrew said:
This will be exciting for you.

Construe is expected to get 12.4 from Thielen which will bum him 10.1

Bailey i.e. Projected to score 9.5 Dodds which would be a .05 difference for $15k.  Tremblay has him at 9.6 which would really suck.

Adams 17.6 - 10 = 7.6, Jones 14.9 - 6.5 = 8.3, GB 8 - 0 = 8.  That's 22.1 expected gain.
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If only I could go back in time and tell Sanders to keep running for that TD instead of giving himself up. Didn’t someone else lose on a give up play a number of years ago 

 
So I took a look at the top teams to find any common themes and noticed that most of them had 2 very good TE's.   What are some other observations??  

 
stlrams said:
So I took a look at the top teams to find any common themes and noticed that most of them had 2 very good TE's.   What are some other observations??  
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Luck.....lots of luck. First time making the top 250 and did it being injury/suspension/drama free for the most part but in the last week lost Cook, Godwin, Gordon, and Jacobs so I'm just happy to still finish top 100 or so and get a free subscription. Some years I went studs/duds and seemed to flame out like week 7. This year I was more of a Meh roster and hit on nearly all my players. So luck really seems to be a huge factor...

 
The final is all luck, lol... but here my .02 on making it there.

1) Have your $20+ guys stay healthy and play well. All 5 of mine put up double-digit scores (and occasional big games) pretty consistently throughout the season (CMC, Kelce, Kittle, Julio, Golladay). Godwin did well for a lot of teams.

2) Guess right about mid-range players who will outperform... this year the biggest ones Lamar, Andrews, Waller, Carson, Gallup were huge sub-$20 values... but even that isn’t enough: Of the 145 teams who had all 5 of these guys, only 21 survived to the end. Lamar was my only pick from this group, but Ekeler was similar to Carson for me.

3) Manage your bye weeks and try to front-load within reason, but don’t go overboard. Ekeler and Kelce were critical for me this year and both had week 12 byes (hence good prices).

4) Get lucky at K/D. These are so unpredictable IMO. I usually go $9-10 per position with 3 cheapies each. This year I felt I needed an extra $3 elsewhere and so only had 2 Ks but Gay carried me there. And my 3 cheap Ds managed to combine for 7 double-digit weeks.

5) Hit on a couple of your sub-$10 to help put up scores... Singletary, Beasley, Hardman helped for me some weeks. Others mostly fizzled (Brieda, Gordon, Duke). Don’t need perfection here, just contributions.

One other team I noticed was 108514 would have had an outside shot if Mattison was playing.  Several other teams had Cook that will come up a bit short.

 
Stray Doug said:
That 4Q 56-yard TD run by Aaron Jones won me a championship in a dynasty league that I joined over 15 years ago (from these forums)... and cost me $16k in this contest.  😮
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Sorry to hear that. I thought you had dodged the bullets. Still a decent pay day and props for building such a great team

 
The FBG site shows winner with 6 less points week 14 than on Calcomatic, making his lead 3 points instead of 9.  So I’ll hold onto a morsel of hope that there’s a similar delta on week 16... nothing’s final until the fat lady posts them and weekly stat corrections are in. 🤣🤣🤣 

 
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Condolences Stray Doug. I got nothing from Thielen or MVS and one team passed me so I finished in 8th place, which has 100x less prize money than I had a chance at to start the night. Pretty amazing stat. Happy that I ended up 1st this week, which is probably the best single week to finish 1st all season. Just wasn't quite enough. Godwin getting hurt did me in. 

Congrats to the winner.  

 
Stray Doug said:
The FBG site shows winner with 6 less points week 14 than on Calcomatic, making his lead 3 points instead of 9.  So I’ll hold onto a morsel of hope that there’s a similar delta on week 16... nothing’s final until the fat lady posts them and weekly stat corrections are in. 🤣🤣🤣 
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You need to look over every single one of his players and yours. I don’t think they automatically make stat corrections, you have to point them out and I believe either today or tomorrow is the last day

 
Stray Doug said:
The FBG site shows winner with 6 less points week 14 than on Calcomatic, making his lead 3 points instead of 9.
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First, congrats Stray Doug on an excellent showing in this contest! 

Each week of this contest where there are cut-downs I compare every team in the contest between my results and FBG results to make sure I am advancing the correct teams to the following week.  Since there are no cuts in the finals I didn't compare all teams to ensure accuracy - busy at work and at home.  Anyway, I hope you find those 4 points you need to take down first!

 
BassNBrew said:
You need to look over every single one of his players and yours. I don’t think they automatically make stat corrections, you have to point them out and I believe either today or tomorrow is the last day
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This is right.  There is a deadline when the contest results lock but I don't know when that is - good luck!

 
Found a minor error in week 14 (Waller had 16.2, was credited with 16.3) and in week 15 (Josh Gordon had 6.8 but was only credited 5.8, but still didn't count towards my score regardless).  The Waller one closes the 1st/2nd place gap from 2.4 to 2.3 but obviously that's not enough.  I also don't know if they'd change week 14/15 scores even though there was not actual cutoff or aspect of the game impacted... I realize why you can't change prior weeks when there's a cutoff, but for weeks 14-16 that's essentially one "set" of games for contest purposes.  Again, moot point as there's no correction that would have changed the final outcome.

I didn't realize how much FPC contests cost, but looks like 1st place only gets one entry whereas 2nd place gets a 3-pack... those 2 additional entries are woth $3k... so "total-value-package-wise" (not counting the subscription) its kinda like 1st place was $22k and 2nd place was $9k, so the total value delta there is only $13k instead of $16k (and only a 60% value drop instead of 80% value drop).  Makes me feel slightly better about coming up short to realize this, and maybe I can translate one or more of those FPC entries into even more actual cash next year.

Oh, and re: calcomatic I can't see the individual player breakdown that I'm aware of, but just FYI for the winning entry 100674 somehow the calcomatic site credited that team an extra 6 total points for week 15... most likely an extra TD awarded to a single player I would guess.

Comparing 1st and 2nd place entries demonstrates there's no one right way to do it... 1st place was able to spend more at QB/RB/WR, but nailed the two TE value picks of Andrews and Waller.  And made it through all season with just a single $5 team D (who averaged >7 ppg weeks 14-16)... although spent $1 more combined on 2 K / 1 D than I did on 2 K / 3 D.  Only two players in common between our teams (Lamar and Singletary).

 
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Sorry to bump this, just curious if any winners had been notified yet. I want to make sure I didn't miss an E-mail Somewhere. 

 
Yes, I got an email Jan 1.

Had 15 days to get my notarized paperwork to them and was overseas at the time.  In the meantime, I tried emailing twice about the fact I moved recently and wasn't sure to use my new address or old address (both are still "current" in the sense I can still receive mail at each, I have relatives at the old address and plan to be there regularly).  The old currently matches my Driver's License, which I haven't yet updated... headed to DMV tomorrow or Friday to apply for new one. Heard nothing, so had a friend who is better acquainted with the FBG Staff reach out on my behalf.  Never got a response to any of those attempts, and was running out of time, so I wound up filling out and overnighting two copies of the form, one filled out with each address, and a note asking them to determine whichever one they think is appropriate to use in this case.  Still no word back, but at least I have confirmation the forms were received (by "Jones") this AM.

 
Rusty_Bungus said:
Don Quixote said:
How do the number of options compare to the past? I was just looking for some deeper sleepers that I like, and noticed Jordan Scarlett, KeeSean Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, and Rashard Higgins among those who did not make the cut.
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I really wish there was a write-in option for players who don't make the cut. Example - Jesse James. How is there no Detroit TE available in the list?!? I would take 40-400-4 floor for $2.
Click to expand...

This is a good illustration of what I think makes the contest fun. We do all we can to minimize the "steals". When we set the salaries in mid August, every year there be players in early September who have huge shifts in value and would have been layups. Sure, the contest would be tons easier if we did that. But our contest is not an easy contest. And I think lots of people love that about it.

So yes, we'll always have lots of players who aren't included for this reason.
 
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