A look back at 1st round success (1 Viewer)

We've all heard about 50% success rate for 1st round picks right?  So I'm going back to look at my draft's in multiple leagues to see how I compare.  The 50% mark is draft specific though, I don't expect that to be the overall outcome since each draft is different.  I'm doing this on the fly while I type this up.  For the leagues I'm looking through, we run a google doc to update things each year so it's easy to keep track of the "history of the league". 

1st league, my 1st ever dynasty league that started in 2010 (1st rookie draft in 2011).  It's a 10 team 2QB league.  Here are my 1st round picks.

2011 - Mark Ingram, 2012 - Andrew Luck, Michael Floyd, Brian Quick, 2013 - Christine Michael, 2014 - Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Jordan Matthews, 2015 - Melvin Gordon, Nelson Agholor, 2016 - Carson Wentz, 2017 - Corey Davis, 2018 - Nick Chubb, Josh Rosen, Ronald Jones.

I think in my early goings at dynasty there were a lot of flawed picks but overall I don't see it as bad at all.  Ingram, Luck, Evans, OBJ, Matthews, Gordon, Agholor, Wentz, Davis, Chubb, Rosen all had value at some point.  Out of those the only ones that didn't quite pan out were Matthews and Agholor, probably a bit too early to write off Davis or Rosen as well.  So overall it looks like out of the 15 picks I had in those years, 7 seem to be hits (Ingram, Luck, Evans, OBJ, Melvin G, Wentz, Chubb) with 2 that possibly could add to that depending on what they do this year probably (Davis and Rosen), and 2 that depending on how you classify a "hit" could make it as well.  Matthews and Agholor are more roster cloggers than "hits" I'd say though.

Out of an 8 year sample size, it seems to have come close to that 50% overall.  

2nd league, I started in 2012 (1st rookie draft in 2013) it was a different story though.  Again a 10 team league with 2QB.

2013 - Eddie Lacy, 2014 - none, 2015 - Melvin Gordon, Kevin White, 2016 - Ezekiel Elliott, 2017 - OJ Howard, 2018 - Saquon Barkley

Instantly you notice a smaller sample size as I didn't trade for as many picks, I traded for quality, and that seems to have worked out.  Overall the only complete miss was Kevin White, while Lacy had some good seasons and some high value, don't remember when I sold him though but I know I traded him away.  Anyways that's 4/6 that were "hits", 1 more that would be a "maybe" and 1 bust.  

I didn't start my "scouting" until 2015 and that seems to be when my drafting turned the corner a bit.  

Both of those leagues I "analyzed" I've been a competitive team for most years so I say not too shabby.  Fun little exercise, I encourage everyone to do this for leagues that have been running a while to give a large sample.  

Before looking at any of my drafts my expectations are > 50% hits.  Never really thought about a specific number, but my expectations vary depending on the position.  I only play IDP, but if I'm drafting a non RB/WR anytime in the first 2 rounds I probably need to feel 80-90% confident they're a hit.  Expectations for RB/WR are lower and I'd just be making up a number, but I feel comfortable saying > 50%.  Curious though...

I think it's a mistake to read much of anything into 2018 right now, so I'll start at 2017.  Since I do IDP I'll separate round 1 and 2 then lump everything beyond that together.  League started in 2009, so I'm starting with the 2010 draft.

Round 1

Dalvin Cook - tbd, important year for him (stay healthy!!!)

Corey Coleman - woof

Laquon Treadwell - x2

Michael Thomas - yahtzee!

Myles Jack - base hit

Amari Cooper - hit because of where the arrow is finally pointing now

Sammy Watkins - miss, but has had moments and I'm optimistic about this year

Devonta Freeman - since I drafted him 1.12 I'm giving myself extra bases

Teddy Bridgewater - miss, but injury driven

Trent Richardson - hahahaha

RG3 - maybe my success expectations should be closer to 50%

Julio Jones - okay, here we go

Dez Bryant - good finish

So, not counting Cook I think I'm right at 50% - 6 of 12.  2 HR's (Thomas and Julio) and 2 extra base hits (Freeman and Dez).

Round 2

Curtis Samuel - like Cook, too early to grade but I think he's 4 months away from being a hit.

Patrick Mahomes - HR

Davante Adams - HR

Alec Ogletree - base hit

LaMichael James - oof

AJ Jenkins - yikes

Eric Decker - another good finish

So, not counting Samuel I'm apparently a better 2nd round drafter than 1st - 4 of 6 w/2 HR.  But I think this actually makes some sense.  I position myself for particular players in the late 1st/2nd round whereas early round 1 is more adp driven.  I traded into those spots to get all of Michael Thomas, Devonta Freeman, Curtis Samuel, Pat Mahomes, and Davante Adams.

The rest

QB - Ryan Mallett

RB - Josh Robinson, Storm Johnson, Jerick McKinnon, Denard Robinson, Andre Ellington, Stefan Taylor, Bilal Powell, Dion Lewis

WR - Kenny Golladay, Ty Montgomery, Titus Davis, Jared Abbrederis, Juron Criner, Clyde Gates

TE - Jake Butt, Hunter Henry, Jordan Reed

LB - Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Blake Martinez, Keenan Robinson

S - Jabrill Peppers, Budda Baker

DL - Vic Beasley, Dion Jordan, Jerry Hughes

I'm glad I went through this exercise because the above confirmed my adjustment in strategy a few years ago is starting to pay off.  Chasing QB/RB is an exercise in futility.  Because even 2 of my 3 hits (McKinnon and Lewis) didn't hit until after I cut them and re-acquired them later.  DL's take time to develop and are susceptible to position reclassifications, so only draft great ones then waiver wire scour for the rest.  If you have picks back here go hunting for TE, LB, S, and WR - probably in that order, but follow the talent. 

Generally speaking spend your time trying to upgrade your draft positioning in the future.  Although now I'm thinking it may be wiser to just try and hoard 2nd rounders.  Before I'd go for the 1st rounders, but then I'm more likely to fall in line with ADP rather than trending more towards my eval of the talent and team fit.  Next year I'm currently sitting on two additional 3's and down a 5 and a 6.  Instead of paying the premium to get up to round one I'm now thinking the right move may be frugally just getting to the 2nd.

great list Mac!

I used to have a lot of success early on in drafts. I follow your advice, I take a TE very early, usually rnd 2-3 - we give 1 pt per 15 yards rec., PPR + TDs. TEs are big scorers in our leagues.

anyways, in a dyno league, keep 5 guys, I'm trading away my early picks for established players nowadays. after being burned by taking guys like D. Cook a couple years ago, and M. Gordon, each having a hard time staying healthy, and some of these hyped rookie RBs, I've come to the conclusion that you really need to get established players, and fill in the the rest with the waivers.how many times have you seen a team win the title after picking up the waiver wire addition of the year? happens all the time in my leagues.

I just traded the 2.02 for Luck and Chubb, and couldn't be happier with it! I don't want to take Montgomery or another rookie RB at #2 , I want established guys. I'll make my hay in the mid-late rounds with the guys who aren't the 'hyped ones'. 

In dynasty leagues everyone is looking for that 7-10 year guy they can grab early on. but there is so much risk with all of these picks that you are almost always better off taking an established 3rd or 4th year player. countless guys too cook, gordon, mixon, amari cooper early on in drafts, only to have to wait 2-3 years to reap the rewards. it's simply not worth it to me.

Tanner9919 said:

great list Mac!

I used to have a lot of success early on in drafts. I follow your advice, I take a TE very early, usually rnd 2-3 - we give 1 pt per 15 yards rec., PPR + TDs. TEs are big scorers in our leagues.

anyways, in a dyno league, keep 5 guys, I'm trading away my early picks for established players nowadays. after being burned by taking guys like D. Cook a couple years ago, and M. Gordon, each having a hard time staying healthy, and some of these hyped rookie RBs, I've come to the conclusion that you really need to get established players, and fill in the the rest with the waivers.how many times have you seen a team win the title after picking up the waiver wire addition of the year? happens all the time in my leagues.

I just traded the 2.02 for Luck and Chubb, and couldn't be happier with it! I don't want to take Montgomery or another rookie RB at #2 , I want established guys. I'll make my hay in the mid-late rounds with the guys who aren't the 'hyped ones'. 

In dynasty leagues everyone is looking for that 7-10 year guy they can grab early on. but there is so much risk with all of these picks that you are almost always better off taking an established 3rd or 4th year player. countless guys too cook, gordon, mixon, amari cooper early on in drafts, only to have to wait 2-3 years to reap the rewards. it's simply not worth it to me.

Click to expand...

This is a confusing post. Are you talking dynasty or Keep 5. They are massively different. In Keep 5, you only value the studliest of stud rookies coming out in the draft. Everything else is about accumulating the best 5 redraft players you can, imo. Of course, it depends on what you paying for each keeper as well. Round+1 or contract or ?

hispeedthinmint said:

Cook & Gordon count as being burned? lol smh

Click to expand...

See my previous post for the reason why I think his take isn’t a typical “dynasty” take if he’s only talking Keep 5.