Zyphros
Footballguy
We've all heard about 50% success rate for 1st round picks right? So I'm going back to look at my draft's in multiple leagues to see how I compare. The 50% mark is draft specific though, I don't expect that to be the overall outcome since each draft is different. I'm doing this on the fly while I type this up. For the leagues I'm looking through, we run a google doc to update things each year so it's easy to keep track of the "history of the league".
1st league, my 1st ever dynasty league that started in 2010 (1st rookie draft in 2011). It's a 10 team 2QB league. Here are my 1st round picks.
2011 - Mark Ingram, 2012 - Andrew Luck, Michael Floyd, Brian Quick, 2013 - Christine Michael, 2014 - Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Jordan Matthews, 2015 - Melvin Gordon, Nelson Agholor, 2016 - Carson Wentz, 2017 - Corey Davis, 2018 - Nick Chubb, Josh Rosen, Ronald Jones.
I think in my early goings at dynasty there were a lot of flawed picks but overall I don't see it as bad at all. Ingram, Luck, Evans, OBJ, Matthews, Gordon, Agholor, Wentz, Davis, Chubb, Rosen all had value at some point. Out of those the only ones that didn't quite pan out were Matthews and Agholor, probably a bit too early to write off Davis or Rosen as well. So overall it looks like out of the 15 picks I had in those years, 7 seem to be hits (Ingram, Luck, Evans, OBJ, Melvin G, Wentz, Chubb) with 2 that possibly could add to that depending on what they do this year probably (Davis and Rosen), and 2 that depending on how you classify a "hit" could make it as well. Matthews and Agholor are more roster cloggers than "hits" I'd say though.
Out of an 8 year sample size, it seems to have come close to that 50% overall.
2nd league, I started in 2012 (1st rookie draft in 2013) it was a different story though. Again a 10 team league with 2QB.
2013 - Eddie Lacy, 2014 - none, 2015 - Melvin Gordon, Kevin White, 2016 - Ezekiel Elliott, 2017 - OJ Howard, 2018 - Saquon Barkley
Instantly you notice a smaller sample size as I didn't trade for as many picks, I traded for quality, and that seems to have worked out. Overall the only complete miss was Kevin White, while Lacy had some good seasons and some high value, don't remember when I sold him though but I know I traded him away. Anyways that's 4/6 that were "hits", 1 more that would be a "maybe" and 1 bust.
I didn't start my "scouting" until 2015 and that seems to be when my drafting turned the corner a bit.
Both of those leagues I "analyzed" I've been a competitive team for most years so I say not too shabby. Fun little exercise, I encourage everyone to do this for leagues that have been running a while to give a large sample.
1st league, my 1st ever dynasty league that started in 2010 (1st rookie draft in 2011). It's a 10 team 2QB league. Here are my 1st round picks.
2011 - Mark Ingram, 2012 - Andrew Luck, Michael Floyd, Brian Quick, 2013 - Christine Michael, 2014 - Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Jordan Matthews, 2015 - Melvin Gordon, Nelson Agholor, 2016 - Carson Wentz, 2017 - Corey Davis, 2018 - Nick Chubb, Josh Rosen, Ronald Jones.
I think in my early goings at dynasty there were a lot of flawed picks but overall I don't see it as bad at all. Ingram, Luck, Evans, OBJ, Matthews, Gordon, Agholor, Wentz, Davis, Chubb, Rosen all had value at some point. Out of those the only ones that didn't quite pan out were Matthews and Agholor, probably a bit too early to write off Davis or Rosen as well. So overall it looks like out of the 15 picks I had in those years, 7 seem to be hits (Ingram, Luck, Evans, OBJ, Melvin G, Wentz, Chubb) with 2 that possibly could add to that depending on what they do this year probably (Davis and Rosen), and 2 that depending on how you classify a "hit" could make it as well. Matthews and Agholor are more roster cloggers than "hits" I'd say though.
Out of an 8 year sample size, it seems to have come close to that 50% overall.
2nd league, I started in 2012 (1st rookie draft in 2013) it was a different story though. Again a 10 team league with 2QB.
2013 - Eddie Lacy, 2014 - none, 2015 - Melvin Gordon, Kevin White, 2016 - Ezekiel Elliott, 2017 - OJ Howard, 2018 - Saquon Barkley
Instantly you notice a smaller sample size as I didn't trade for as many picks, I traded for quality, and that seems to have worked out. Overall the only complete miss was Kevin White, while Lacy had some good seasons and some high value, don't remember when I sold him though but I know I traded him away. Anyways that's 4/6 that were "hits", 1 more that would be a "maybe" and 1 bust.
I didn't start my "scouting" until 2015 and that seems to be when my drafting turned the corner a bit.
Both of those leagues I "analyzed" I've been a competitive team for most years so I say not too shabby. Fun little exercise, I encourage everyone to do this for leagues that have been running a while to give a large sample.