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TheIronSheik

2019 MLB Off Season - Hot Stove and Winter Meetings

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9 hours ago, Engelberg said:
9 hours ago, TheIronSheik said:

Do you see that second line to the right of the first base line?  That box is where the runner is supposed to be running.  That's his safe spot.  Do you see where Trea Turner is?

By the time he got to the bag he was dead nuts in the center. Where is he supposed to go?

You guys know this was like a week ago, right?

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8 minutes ago, MindCrime said:

99 days and 33 minutes (and counting) until Pitchers and Catchers report. What else are we gonna talk about?

99 days and 22 minutes

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If Bregs can win the MVP, it'll be the first time a team ever swept the MVP, ROY and CY awards.

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1 hour ago, TheIronSheik said:

If Bregs can win the MVP, it'll be the first time a team ever swept the MVP, ROY and CY awards.

I'm not sure if he'll be more intolerable next year if he wins it or if he doesn't. At least he's OUR intolerable, narcissistic #####.

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So this always confuses me, but Yordan wasn't technically a rookie, right?  He was a call up.  Only played like 1/4 of the season and will most likely win ROY.  But is next season his "rookie season" then?  And if so, is he not eligible to win the ROY in his rookie year?

Also, when was the last guy to win ROY when not playing a full season?

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9 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

So this always confuses me, but Yordan wasn't technically a rookie, right?  He was a call up.  Only played like 1/4 of the season and will most likely win ROY.  But is next season his "rookie season" then?  And if so, is he not eligible to win the ROY in his rookie year?

Also, when was the last guy to win ROY when not playing a full season?

Alvarez appeared in 87 games.  If he wins, it would be the least number of games played for a position player RoY since Willie McCovey hit .354/.429/.656 in only 52 games in 1959.  There have been other RoY who have been close to 87 games:  Ryan Howard and Wil Myers 88, Bob Horner 89.

Win or lose, Alvarez won't be considered a rookie next year.

Quote

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

 

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On 11/5/2019 at 7:54 AM, TheIronSheik said:

If Bregs can win the MVP, it'll be the first time a team ever swept the MVP, ROY and CY awards.

I have it 4 rounds to 2 for Trout

April Trout 10-9

May Trout 10-9

June Trout 10-9

July Trout 10-9

August Breg 10-9

September Breg 10-8

Trout 57-56

 

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11 hours ago, NREC34 said:

Bregman deleted all of his social media. 

So no one can hear him whine when he loses to Trout. 

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I love Trout.  What's not to love about that guy.  But when I think MVP, I think what guy did the best for his team.  Trout and Bregman have similar numbers, but Bregman's numbers helped his team get to the WS.  Even if Trout had better numbers, I still think getting your team is more of an MVP.  But I don't understand why with similar numbers, Trout would win.  I think he WILL win.  But I think it's dumb.  

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37 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

I love Trout.  What's not to love about that guy.  But when I think MVP, I think what guy did the best for his team.  Trout and Bregman have similar numbers, but Bregman's numbers helped his team get to the WS.  Even if Trout had better numbers, I still think getting your team is more of an MVP.  But I don't understand why with similar numbers, Trout would win.  I think he WILL win.  But I think it's dumb.  

Yeah it used to be pretty much what you are saying. The guy who won needed to be on a contender. Now we have this thing called WAR so who knows. 

 

Someone tell me how Boggs finished 9th here with that stat line. Not even close to winning.

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3 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

Yeah it used to be pretty much what you are saying. The guy who won needed to be on a contender. Now we have this thing called WAR so who knows. 

 

Someone tell me how Boggs finished 9th here with that stat line. Not even close to winning.

I get WAR, but if you're helping your team win 10 more games and you still come in 4th place in your division, then I don't think you're an MVP.  And I'm not arguing so much with you, but with the idea of how the people vote now.  

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I think if Trout had been on the Astros the team would have been even better. Bregman doesn’t deserve credit for being on such a loaded team and Trout shouldn’t be knocked for having an incompetent front office. But if it’s super close I can see the winning team being the tiebreaker. 

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8 minutes ago, Capella said:

I think if Trout had been on the Astros the team would have been even better. Bregman doesn’t deserve credit for being on such a loaded team and Trout shouldn’t be knocked for having an incompetent front office. But if it’s super close I can see the winning team being the tiebreaker. 

And I totally get that.  But since the numbers are so close, I lean towards the team that made the playoffs.  

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MLB Network guys were saying the Astros should let Cole walk for his big money but go after Wheeler.  Apparently he throws the same 4 seamer that Cole did and the Astros turned him into a megastar.  Could do the same for Wheeler at a much cheaper price.

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5 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

MLB Network guys were saying the Astros should let Cole walk for his big money but go after Wheeler.  Apparently he throws the same 4 seamer that Cole did and the Astros turned him into a megastar.  Could do the same for Wheeler at a much cheaper price.

I agree. Get someone cheaper and develop him like they did Cole. Let someone else overpay and weaken the rest of their team due to paying one guy too much. 

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4 hours ago, NREC34 said:

Yeah it used to be pretty much what you are saying. The guy who won needed to be on a contender. Now we have this thing called WAR so who knows. 

Someone tell me how Boggs finished 9th here with that stat line. Not even close to winning.

Here were the numbers for Babe Ruth from 1924 through 1929.

1924: .378 - 46 - 124 - 1.252 - 11.7 WAR
1925: Injured for a big chunk of the season
1926: .372 - 47 - 153 - 1.253 - 11.5 WAR
1927: .356 - 60 - 165 - 1.258 - 12.4 WAR
1928: .323 - 54 - 146 - 1.172 - 10.1 WAR
1929: .345 - 46 - 154 - 1,126 - 8.0 WAR

Why did I bring this up? The Bambino received a grand total across ALL those seasons of 0 MVP votes. Not even a single one. Some years 27 AL players got MVP votes! How was Ruth not one of the Top 27 players in the American League?

For some reason they didn't have MVP awards in the 1930 season. But since then, here are all the players that have had a seasonal WAR of 10+ that did not finish the season in the Top 10 in MVP balloting . . .

Player, WAR, Season, MVP Finish

Bob Gibson	11.3	1969	30
Cal Ripken	10	1984	27
Jose Rijo	10.1	1993	21
Zack Greinke	10.4	2009	17
Phil Niekro	10.4	1978	17
Alex Rodriguez	10.4	2000	15
Lefty Grove	10.7	1936	15
Aaron Nola	10	2018	13


 

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The mvp when it first started had a rule that you could only win it once...

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3 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

The mvp when it first started had a rule that you could only win it once...

I was not aware. Seems like an odd rule. They took that out when they brought back the MVP Awards in 1931.

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8 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

The mvp when it first started had a rule that you could only win it once...

Interesting.  I never knew that.  

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Also, a lot of the voters won’t ever vote for a pitcher since they have the Cy Young for them. 

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8 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

Also, a lot of the voters won’t ever vote for a pitcher since they have the Cy Young for them. 

Yeah, I have a tough time giving the MVP to the pitcher since they only can affect 1/5 of the games.  Has to be something special for them to win, IMO.

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1 hour ago, TheIronSheik said:

Yeah, I have a tough time giving the MVP to the pitcher since they only can affect 1/5 of the games.  Has to be something special for them to win, IMO.

Yeah, sort of. A position player impacts roughly 10% of his teams at bats and depending upon the position played, roughly that amount in the field (ie, the number of times a ball might be hit to him). But that fielding contribution probably is inflated, as many outs are recorded by strikeout, and many plays are just routine that any player would be expected to make. So I would say defensively an individual player really only impacts 2% of his team's fielding plays.

But since there is offense and defense, that pretty much means a position player impacts 5% of the game offensively and 1% of the game defensively. So 6% of an individual game. Since starting pitchers pitch every 5 games, a position player over 5 games would score 6-6-6-6-6 = a score of 30. If someone wanted to argue that a really good player would impact a game at a rate of 7% instead, that would get the position player up to a score of 35 over 5 games.

Starting pitchers obviously do nothing in 4 games out of 5. But in the one game they play, they have a huge impact. Say a decent starter pitches 7 innings on average. That's 78% of the game while on defense. Pitchers rarely have much impact on offense, so count that as 0. So the average of those two would be 39%. That starter would then have an impact score of 0-0-0-0-39 = 39 total over 5 games. Adding an average of a third of an inning to the stud pitcher's average workload per game, and the pitcher's score would be almost 41 over 5 games.

Bottom line, even though position players could impact every game, in a five game stretch, there may not be as much difference in the impact between a position player and a top notch starting pitcher (and the pitcher could actually have a greater impact). I realize this is a very simplistic break down and there are other components to the game (base running, throwing, moving runners along, etc.), but as an example to illustrate how much impact there is, I think it's not that far off base.

 

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3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Say a decent starter pitches 7 innings on average.

Did Cane or Verlander even average 7 innings?

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4 minutes ago, falguy said:

Did Cane or Verlander even average 7 innings?

Verlander average about 6 2/3. Sadly, with the trend to go match ups and bring bull pens in early, the starting pitchers don't get the innings they used to. But back 10+ years ago when some starters used to pitch 250-300 innings I think work horse pitchers did have more value.

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45 minutes ago, Ron Swanson said:

Sucks. He’s the face of the Astros. 

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16 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Yeah, sort of. A position player impacts roughly 10% of his teams at bats and depending upon the position played, roughly that amount in the field (ie, the number of times a ball might be hit to him). But that fielding contribution probably is inflated, as many outs are recorded by strikeout, and many plays are just routine that any player would be expected to make. So I would say defensively an individual player really only impacts 2% of his team's fielding plays.

But since there is offense and defense, that pretty much means a position player impacts 5% of the game offensively and 1% of the game defensively. So 6% of an individual game. Since starting pitchers pitch every 5 games, a position player over 5 games would score 6-6-6-6-6 = a score of 30. If someone wanted to argue that a really good player would impact a game at a rate of 7% instead, that would get the position player up to a score of 35 over 5 games.

Starting pitchers obviously do nothing in 4 games out of 5. But in the one game they play, they have a huge impact. Say a decent starter pitches 7 innings on average. That's 78% of the game while on defense. Pitchers rarely have much impact on offense, so count that as 0. So the average of those two would be 39%. That starter would then have an impact score of 0-0-0-0-39 = 39 total over 5 games. Adding an average of a third of an inning to the stud pitcher's average workload per game, and the pitcher's score would be almost 41 over 5 games.

Bottom line, even though position players could impact every game, in a five game stretch, there may not be as much difference in the impact between a position player and a top notch starting pitcher (and the pitcher could actually have a greater impact). I realize this is a very simplistic break down and there are other components to the game (base running, throwing, moving runners along, etc.), but as an example to illustrate how much impact there is, I think it's not that far off base.

 

You make good points, but that's why I said "has to be something special."  I didn't say they shouldn't win it.  

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How would it factor if it was MOP vs MVP?  2 different things.  Either way, baseball is unique in that it is a team game made up of a bunch of individual performances.

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51 minutes ago, dino259 said:

How would it factor if it was MOP vs MVP?  2 different things.  Either way, baseball is unique in that it is a team game made up of a bunch of individual performances.

Most Obvious Player? :confused:

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8 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

Most Obvious Player? :confused:

Bregman? Most Obnoxious Player. 

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8 minutes ago, Fat Drunk and Stupid said:

Outstanding

Thank you.  I mean, I didn't personally think it was that funny, but I appreciate the compliment. :bowtie:

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1 hour ago, dino259 said:

How would it factor if it was MOP vs MVP?  2 different things.  Either way, baseball is unique in that it is a team game made up of a bunch of individual performances.

Did he bring canned tuna to a movie theatre?

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As a Phillies fan, they better have some big signings this offseason.  The farm system is not good enough to get good players through trades.  Plus, even if it was, we can't deplete it anymore.  But there is plenty of money to sign at least 2 BIG free agent's and maybe 1 or 2 smaller ones.  

I'd love to see Wheeler and Rendon signed.  Strengthen yourselves and hurt your competition.  

I think you could easily sign Hamels on a flyer.  And I think Puig would be a nice fit.  There are so many good/decent FA's that could help this team, they better not disappoint.  Hopefully this year we actually get a fun Hot Stove instead of a non-existent one like last year.

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3 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

I think you wasted too much on Harper, brah. 

1)  I wouldn't call it a waste.  He had a very good year.  And it re-energized the fan base.  People were excited about this team again.  It was an awesome summer in this city.  Sure, we didn't get to the playoffs, but we came close.  Injuries (and a suspension) really hurt us.  By the end of the season, half the team was cobbled together from Reading, Lehigh Valley and castoffs that other teams had cut or traded for nothing.  Yet they still were playing meaningful games with 3 weeks to go.  Plus, it's not like we only get him one year.  He's become a beloved hero in this town.  We love champions, but we love guys who play their hardest, even more.  And Harper has given 110% since he's put on the red pinstripes.

2) We still have plenty of cash.  They were saving enough room to make a run at Trout up until the Angels extended him.  There's plenty of money.  The biggest issue is the draft picks we'll lose to free agents who got a QO.  I think they need to change that rule.  But regardless, you give up a pick if you want to compete.  

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3 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

I think you wasted too much on Harper, brah. 

The Harper contract is fine for now.  He made $27M in 2019 for a 4 WAR season, which isn't bad value.  It's not unreasonable for him to outperform his contract for the next three or four years if he stays healthy.

The question is how big of an albatross his contract will be a decade from now when he's in his late 30s.  Maybe $23M won't be an exorbitant salary in 2030 but if the TV rights bubble bursts and revenues plummet, it could become a turd.

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On 11/4/2019 at 11:30 AM, Engelberg said:

By the time he got to the bag he was dead nuts in the center. Where is he supposed to go?

What kind of question is that?  There are literally two lines that he's supposed to go between.  That's where he's supposed to go.  They literally drew them on the field for him.  By the time he's half-way down the basepath he has to be in between the two lines or he can be called for runner interference if he impacts the 1st baseman's ability to catch the ball.  That's the rule.

Does he look like he's between those two lines to you?

 

On 11/4/2019 at 11:22 AM, Engelberg said:

So he should have slid into 1st base. Only possible way not to interfere. Didn't know the runner isn't entitled to the bag. And he was not out of the baseline. It was a brutally bad call.

No it's not the only possible way to not interfere.  If he runs in the runner's lane than he can't get called for interference even if he's in the way.  If he runs out of the runner's lane (which he did) then he will get called for interference if he ends up in the way.  It's plain and simple.

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On 10/31/2019 at 2:35 PM, NREC34 said:

Man...listened to Francesa’s first hour where he was on the WS. He makes a heckuva case that the 2-1 pitch Greinke threw to Soto with one out in the 7th which was called a ball but was definitely in the zone turned the whole game and series around. He had a really good argument and can’t say I disagree. 

Hence, the reason I said I’m all for the robo strike zone the other day, even when it was a bad call that helped my guys that day. 

It’s super frustrating when a pitcher throws a perfect pitch in the zone that doesn’t get the call more than the other way around for me. 

I was thinking that at the time but I didn't want to sound whiny in the thread.

It turned a 2-2 count into a 3-1 count, and when Soto walked they pulled Greinke.  If he gets that strike call who knows how differently that at bat could have gone and then he wouldn't have been pulled.

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9 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I was thinking that at the time but I didn't want to sound whiny in the thread.

It turned a 2-2 count into a 3-1 count, and when Soto walked they pulled Greinke.  If he gets that strike call who knows how differently that at bat could have gone and then he wouldn't have been pulled.

Yeah, Francesa did a whole hour on that and that they named the MVP trophy after Willie Mays when Mays didn’t really do much in the WS. 

I haven’t heard Astro fans complain much about it but we still had Nats fans complaining days later over a correct call that was made in a game they won handily.  

Sucks that the Astros couldn’t get enough key hits in the game early with chances and put it away then a bad ball/strike call wouldn’t have mattered. 

 

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On 11/7/2019 at 6:07 AM, TheIronSheik said:

I love Trout.  What's not to love about that guy.  But when I think MVP, I think what guy did the best for his team.  Trout and Bregman have similar numbers, but Bregman's numbers helped his team get to the WS.  Even if Trout had better numbers, I still think getting your team is more of an MVP.  But I don't understand why with similar numbers, Trout would win.  I think he WILL win.  But I think it's dumb.  

He once snapped at me on a golf course. 

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20 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

Man what type of contract is Yelich going to sign when eligible? More than Harper less than Trout? $340-$375 million?

Yelich will be entering his age 30 season when he hits free agency which is 3 & 4 years older than Trout and Harper respectively.  That'll impact the duration and total value of the deal if not the AAV. 

The other huge factor is the expiration of the current CBA in Dec 2021, a month after Yelich is expected to become a free agent.

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4 hours ago, Eephus said:

Yelich will be entering his age 30 season when he hits free agency which is 3 & 4 years older than Trout and Harper respectively.  That'll impact the duration and total value of the deal if not the AAV. 

The other huge factor is the expiration of the current CBA in Dec 2021, a month after Yelich is expected to become a free agent.

Hindsight is 20-20 but I wonder how much that team friendly 7 year $49M deal is costing him.  

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ROY of the year awards go out tonight.  Zero drama in this.  If Alvarez and Alonso don't win, something went horribly wrong in the voting booths and a lot of the hanging chads weren't counted, I'd assume.

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I have never understood why baseball doesn’t just announce the winners of everything all at one time instead of dragging it out like they do. 

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On 11/9/2019 at 9:42 AM, Zow said:

He once snapped at me on a golf course. 

Ok well you gotta expand on that one :coffee: 

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