2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings

[Chaka 6,241]

On 9/2/2019 at 12:12 PM, pinkham13 said:

Kenyan Drake is looking better with Fitzy being named starting QB. Ballage looks terrible. Drake had 1000 total yards on 170 touches and Nine touchdowns last season. If he stays healthy and can add 50 touches with potential for more with Gore gone then Drake is going to way outperform his ADP.

He was on a marginally better team last year that didn't just trade away their best two players...but I actually agree. 

Drake is easily their best receiver out of the backfield which should be a very valuable in Miami. The line won't be able to stop pressure and the RB dump off is going to be a necessity.

They are also going to be playing behind all season so expect I expect they will need to pass much more than they would prefer. 

Flores also comes from New England and knows the value of using short passes to as an alternative to the running game when needed. So I don't assume he will be a Marvin Lewis, three yards and a cloud of dust, type just because he comes.from the defensive side of the ball.

So, despite being in the worst team in the league I am cautiously optimistic about Drake this season 

[SoBeDad 1,352]

35 minutes ago, Chaka said:

He was on a marginally better team last year that didn't just trade away their best two players...but I actually agree. 

Drake is easily their best receiver out of the backfield which should be a very valuable in Miami. The line won't be able to stop pressure and the RB dump off is going to be a necessity.

They are also going to be playing behind all season so expect I expect they will need to pass much more than they would prefer. 

Flores also comes from New England and knows the value of using short passes to as an alternative to the running game when needed. So I don't assume he will be a Marvin Lewis, three yards and a cloud of dust, type just because he comes.from the defensive side of the ball.

So, despite being in the worst team in the league I am cautiously optimistic about Drake this season 

Ballage didn't impress in the preseason, but he had some great plays late last year after Gore went down. He has size, straight line speed, can block and catch, and is the gl back. I'm not sure how it'll play out.

[Chaka 6,241]

43 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Ballage didn't impress in the preseason, but he had some great plays late last year after Gore went down. He has size, straight line speed, can block and catch, and is the gl back. I'm not sure how it'll play out.

Ballage had one 75 yard run on 36 season long carries, of course you can't take that away but, at the same time you can see how it severely skews his numbers. And he didn't do much on his limited targets.

Drake is by no means a lock to start or get the majority of touches at RB in Miami He has a reputation as a freelancer which leads to him getting hit for a loss with high frequency. That's why Gase never gave him the full time job. Nothing frustrates a HC more than guys not following the game plan. Take what's blocked for you is the mantra and Drake apparently doesn't do that enough so he's hardly a lock.

However Drake has flashed a lot more ability both in college (Alabama of course makes that easier) and, more importantly, as a pro than Ballege (so far). 

It makes sense for Ballege to be the GL back, it would certainly be consistent with the Belichick model. He's big at 232 but also unusually tall for a RB, 6'2",  so I am not sure about his ability to get his pad level low. The same can be said about Drake though.

My early speculative $$$ is on Drake but it would be no shock to see him get pulled for the guy who takes what's blocked for him.

[pinkham13 135]

Almost ready to start the season. Dropped a backup QB for Justin Jackson. He seems like the better back to own in San Diego with Gordon holding out. Ekeler doesn’t seem to be the one to own just on the eye test.

[BobbyLayne 7,604]

10 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

Ballage didn't impress in the preseason, but he had some great plays late last year after Gore went down. He has size, straight line speed, can block and catch, and is the gl back. I'm not sure how it'll play out.

You would think so, but he’s one of those big backs who doesn’t really use his size to his advantage.

Last year Drake had 12 rushing attempts in the Red Zone for 49 yards and 3 TDs.

Kalen Ballage had 1 for (-2) yards.

[Mario Wario 24]

49 minutes ago, pinkham13 said:

Almost ready to start the season. Dropped a backup QB for Justin Jackson. He seems like the better back to own in San Diego with Gordon holding out. Ekeler doesn’t seem to be the one to own just on the eye test.

You mean Los Angeles.

[SoBeDad 1,352]

5 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

You would think so, but he’s one of those big backs who doesn’t really use his size to his advantage.

Last year Drake had 12 rushing attempts in the Red Zone for 49 yards and 3 TDs.

Kalen Ballage had 1 for (-2) yards.

You could be right about the 2019 usage, but with a new coach, it's anyone's guess. Small sample size for Ballage.  I was going off rotoworld, but haven't heard locally. This sounds encouraging for Drake owners, from today. Local writer Barry Jackson:

>> Flores said Kenyan Drake is as talented as any player on the roster and "we look forward to giving him a lot of touches this week."  <<

Ballage impressed late last year on a few runs, including a 75 yard TD, and a couple of pass receptions. In both pre-seasons,  I wasn't impressed.

[pinkham13 135]

24 minutes ago, Mario Wario said:

You mean Los Angeles.

Next you’ll be telling me the Rams aren’t in Saint Louis anymore. Wait what.🤪

[Steeler 2,340]

I used the shotgun approach to filling my RB2 slot and thanks to this thread I like how it turned out!

P. Barber - uninspiring, but is listed as the starter.  The remaining guys all have stand-alone value to one degree or another and all could become insta-starters if something were to happen to the lead backs on their teams:  L. Murray, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, D. Henderson, C. Edmunds

 

Thanks to all who contributed to this thread!

[Chaka 6,241]

1 hour ago, SoBeDad said:

You could be right about the 2019 usage, but with a new coach, it's anyone's guess. Small sample size for Ballage.  I was going off rotoworld, but haven't heard locally. This sounds encouraging for Drake owners, from today. Local writer Barry Jackson:

>> Flores said Kenyan Drake is as talented as any player on the roster and "we look forward to giving him a lot of touches this week."  <<

Ballage impressed late last year on a few runs, including a 75 yard TD, and a couple of pass receptions. In both pre-seasons,  I wasn't impressed.

Again, we know almost nothing about Ballage, his opportunities were very limited.  He literally had one 75 yard run and one 31 yard reception.  On his other 43 touches he did little to nothing.  Way too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions one way or the other.

Drake freelances way too much, it has cost the team because he gets hit behind the line too much and it has cost Drake touches.  We don't know Flores but we know Belichick would never stand for that so I am going to assume it's not something Flores appreciates either.

However Drake flashes a lot when he gets the ball.  His catch % isn't great but it's passable and what he does with the ball often looks special.  On a team with a dearth of proven talent he has to be the horse to back early in the season. How it shakes out from there is anyone's guess.

[daylight 166]

Updated the list just now.

[daylight 166]

On 8/25/2019 at 1:41 PM, BobbyLayne said:

Thompson was Waldman and Hollman’s 2nd best RB in the class if you listen to film guys. Great balance.

What was Waldman's #1?

[daylight 166]

Added:

• SEA - CJ Prosise
• SEA - Rashaad Penny

What are folks opinions on either of those 2 being King Makers?

 

[BobbyLayne 7,604]

9 minutes ago, daylight said:

What was Waldman's #1?

Josh Jacobs

[Mongidig 213]

23 hours ago, Steeler said:

I used the shotgun approach to filling my RB2 slot and thanks to this thread I like how it turned out!

P. Barber - uninspiring, but is listed as the starter.  The remaining guys all have stand-alone value to one degree or another and all could become insta-starters if something were to happen to the lead backs on their teams:  L. Murray, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, D. Henderson, C. Edmunds

 

Thanks to all who contributed to this thread!

I grabbed L Murray and Samuels everywhere I could. 

I missed on getting Edmonds. I have a feeling he could end up being one of the bigger surprises this year.

[BobbyLayne 7,604]

4 minutes ago, daylight said:

Added:

• SEA - CJ Prosise
• SEA - Rashaad Penny

What are folks opinions on either of those 2 being King Makers?

 

If we’re listing CJ Prosise as a kingmaker, please update post #1 to list all 120 RBs on active rosters. Might as well add all the practice squad players and potential FAs who will come off the street. Don’t sleep on Chris Ivory.

How many years do we have to listen to Pete Carroll pumping up his third/fourth string RB to the local media until we realize it means nothing?

[Mongidig 213]

I grabbed Damien Harris in the 17th in a deep bench league. He's 4th on the depth chart but seems to be the likely back up to Sony. 

This is a situation where the depth chart has created the illusion that a player has no value. 

[The Dude 505]

So to beat everyone to the waiver wire, I think these are the guys to target before the games (random order):

Ogun - might play a ton; if not should still catch a few passes

Ito Smith - will play more than people expect and may do goal line work

Mike Davis - I think he starts and if he is rolling tonight keeps the spot for the short term

I don't have shares of any - but trying to get one

[4th&inches 304]

with the news that AB is looking to be suspended, Jalen Richard might be a sneaky play this week as one of Carr's fav pass targets. 

 

[Patrick the Pirate 25]

5 hours ago, daylight said:

Added:

• SEA - CJ Prosise
• SEA - Rashaad Penny

What are folks opinions on either of those 2 being King Makers?

 

Penny for sure could be if Carson is banged up. But he stills costs quite a bit in drafts. Prosise I don't think so. A lot would have to happen for him to become a King Maker.

If Penny is considered, I really like Alexander Mattison. Odds of Dalvin lasting until fantasy playoffs are really low IMO.

[Patrick the Pirate 25]

I really like Gio Bernard too. Not as young as most guys mentioned here but he was really good when Mixon was out last year. Goes really late in drafts or doesn't get drafted in shallow leagues.

[Shawnky 244]

Who holds more value in redraft for this year......Justice Hill or A Mattison?  Both were dropped this week and I'm looking for one of them to replace Darwin with McCoy's recent signing.

[Choke 287]

23 minutes ago, Shawnky said:

Who holds more value in redraft for this year......Justice Hill or A Mattison?  Both were dropped this week and I'm looking for one of them to replace Darwin with McCoy's recent signing.

Dont think there is any chance Mattison overtakes Cook, this year sans an injury.  There is a small chance Hill could leapfrog Ingram.  Nice pair of options though.

[EBF 1,670]

I don't think Mattison or Hill have much chance to leapfrog the starter, so for me it probably comes down to the likelihood of the starter getting injured. Injuries are random to a degree, but even so I have more faith in Ingram's ability to stay healthy than Cook's. Mattison appears to be a JAG, but he's a JAG who can also catch the ball and if Cook goes down then he may be a top 20 PPR RB based on that.

[bcnfinance 6]

I have Kerryon & Ekeler in full PPR and need to drop either CJA and Justin Jackson. What’s the move?  

[4th&inches 304]

11 minutes ago, bcnfinance said:

I have Kerryon & Ekeler in full PPR and need to drop either CJA and Justin Jackson. What’s the move?  

1/2 joking, 1/2 not... 

Find answer HERE

😁

 

[bcnfinance 6]

4 minutes ago, 4th&inches said:

1/2 joking, 1/2 not... 

Find answer HERE

😁

 

Sounds good - thanks

[Long Ball Larry 12,140]

i would 100% drop CJA in that situation.  We don't really know Jackson's upside is but I'd much rather gamble on that than CJA.

[Judge Smails 2,962]

Went RB heavy. McCoy is my lottery ticket 

[themeistersinger 187]

On 9/4/2019 at 12:12 PM, pinkham13 said:

Next you’ll be telling me the Rams aren’t in Saint Louis anymore. Wait what.🤪

I think you mean the Cleveland Rams

[wormburner 333]

On 9/4/2019 at 10:46 AM, Mario Wario said:

You mean Los Angeles.

Dang.  From all my Navy years in San Diego, I'll be making this same mistake for a long time!  😳

[Chaka 6,241]

12 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

i would 100% drop CJA in that situation.  We don't really know Jackson's upside is but I'd much rather gamble on that than CJA.

Man, what does CJ have to do to buy some respect around here?

[BobbyLayne 7,604]

47 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Man, what does CJ have to do to buy some respect around here?

Lose 20 lbs?

[daylight 166]

So, now that we are beyond Week 1 - I did what we have done in the past:

Divided the list into 3:

1. Possible King Makers (Lotto Ticket)
2. Honorable Mentions (maybe worth rostering - dealers choice)
3. Too Late - the cat is out of the bag and these players are no longer Lotto Tickets

If anyone has an opinion on what I did - I welcome it - I have a thick skin so don't hold back - a competition of opinion on this thread is very valuable.

I divided the list into 3 based on my own "eyeball test" - top performing offenses, etc.

As always, depending on your league size/roster size/competitiveness/etc. - your mileage WILL vary.

Edited September 14, 2019 by daylight

[The Dude 505]

Great effort.  Some of your first tier should probably be ranked in "case of emergency break glass."

Guys like Pollard, Kelly and a few others are not ready for pick up or monitoring for emergence - they are handcuffs

[daylight 166]

offence

32 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Great effort.  Some of your first tier should probably be ranked in "case of emergency break glass."

Guys like Pollard, Kelly and a few others are not ready for pick up or monitoring for emergence - they are handcuffs

Thank you - and fair enough.

However, does "a handcuff" or "not a handcuff" matter.  To quote @TZMarkie again, it is all about "availability, upside and possibility" - regardless of handcuff status if they have those 3 things they belong on one of the lists (probably King Maker) as I understand it.

What are folks current (pre-week2) opinions on Henderson/LAR and Thompson/KC - do they belong on the King Maker list? (yes, I drank the Kool-Aid)

(Same question for Dexter Williams/GB (pending LaFleur fielding a LAR offence instead of a 2018 TEN offence), Mike Boone/MIN and *any* NO back.)

Edited September 14, 2019 by daylight

[The Dude 505]

It's a fine line and I appreciate other views. I think the highlight should be in guys we should be monitoring based on increased usage or improving performance or emerging opportunity.  

Ronald Jones was the perfect example of well 1.  Even if he stalled in week 2.

Whatever you decide I will be here to read.  Thanks for the heavy lifting

[Stompin' Tom Connors 3,098]

I saw Dameara Crockett on the original post -- guy is on the Raiders practice squad, and while I think he's talented, can a guy not on the 53 still qualify? Seems at least we should narrow consideration to guys that actually are in position to step up, rather than have to get on the 53 man squad first. In that case, would think that DeAndre Washington takes his place -- Richard adn Washington would likely split carries if Jacobs goes out.

Thinking through seeing Crockett on the list, what do we think of Mostert as a lotto ticket?

Coleman is coming back, and Breida is solid, but Breida was susceptible to nagging injuries last year. missing two games, then coming back, then injuring his ankle and going on IR.

Is it that Mostert simply behind two credible threats? Because the guys ahead of him aren't fragile or labeled true injury-prone backs (Breida had a pretty clean slate before last year)? Because we don't think Mostert in a tandem role with one or the other backs ahead of him isn't fantasy worthy? Is it his journeyman practice squad status? Age? That holding him is really a true stretch in terms of others you could be burning that bench spot on?

This week will be interesting as talk seems to be that he'll get work if not see true split carries. But If Mostert looks as good as Breida or better, argue that he should be added as a potential deep lotto ticket, if not on the list already as a guy to watch.

[Stompin' Tom Connors 3,098]

BTW, @daylight, thanks so much for doing this!

[Long Ball Larry 12,140]

6 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I saw Dameara Crockett on the original post -- guy is on the Raiders practice squad, and while I think he's talented, can a guy not on the 53 still qualify? Seems at least we should narrow consideration to guys that actually are in position to step up, rather than have to get on the 53 man squad first. In that case, would think that DeAndre Washington takes his place -- Richard adn Washington would likely split carries if Jacobs goes out.

Thinking through seeing Crockett on the list, what do we think of Mostert as a lotto ticket?

Coleman is coming back, and Breida is solid, but Breida was susceptible to nagging injuries last year. missing two games, then coming back, then injuring his ankle and going on IR.

Is it that Mostert simply behind two credible threats? Because the guys ahead of him aren't fragile or labeled true injury-prone backs (Breida had a pretty clean slate before last year)? Because we don't think Mostert in a tandem role with one or the other backs ahead of him isn't fantasy worthy? Is it his journeyman practice squad status? Age? That holding him is really a true stretch in terms of others you could be burning that bench spot on?

This week will be interesting as talk seems to be that he'll get work if not see true split carries. But If Mostert looks as good as Breida or better, argue that he should be added as a potential deep lotto ticket, if not on the list already as a guy to watch.

probably true on Crockett.  I think that he was initially put on when he was seen as handcuff or someone who might take over for Lamar Miller.

I do think that someone not on the 53 could be considered, as occasionally a guy could jump up, but I agree that he should probably be in a similar category.

Mostert is interesting.  He definitely looked good a couple years ago before he went down with that wicked broken arm.

[daylight 166]

1 hour ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I saw Dameara Crockett on the original post -- guy is on the Raiders practice squad, and while I think he's talented, can a guy not on the 53 still qualify? Seems at least we should narrow consideration to guys that actually are in position to step up, rather than have to get on the 53 man squad first. In that case, would think that DeAndre Washington takes his place -- Richard adn Washington would likely split carries if Jacobs goes out.

Thinking through seeing Crockett on the list, what do we think of Mostert as a lotto ticket?

Coleman is coming back, and Breida is solid, but Breida was susceptible to nagging injuries last year. missing two games, then coming back, then injuring his ankle and going on IR.

Is it that Mostert simply behind two credible threats? Because the guys ahead of him aren't fragile or labeled true injury-prone backs (Breida had a pretty clean slate before last year)? Because we don't think Mostert in a tandem role with one or the other backs ahead of him isn't fantasy worthy? Is it his journeyman practice squad status? Age? That holding him is really a true stretch in terms of others you could be burning that bench spot on?

This week will be interesting as talk seems to be that he'll get work if not see true split carries. But If Mostert looks as good as Breida or better, argue that he should be added as a potential deep lotto ticket, if not on the list already as a guy to watch.

Added Mostert to the Honorable Mention list.

Added perennial tickets Richard and Washington to the Honorable Mention list.

[TZMarkie 518]

1 hour ago, daylight said:

 

Added perennial tickets

 

 

 

 TZM

[Ilov80s 21,741]

Do Gio Bernard and potentially Peterson count?

[Dismattle 211]

Preston Williams?  WW picked to the bone and I had an open spot w/ Guice on IR   Seems like a lot of QB and noted deficiency on defense to not take a look at their WR's  

[Dr. Dan 5,474]

1 minute ago, Dismattle said:

Preston Williams?  WW picked to the bone and I had an open spot w/ Guice on IR   Seems like a lot of QB and noted deficiency on defense to not take a look at their WR's  

Man, I know the guy is good but I had no idea he was good enough to play RB

[daylight 166]

20 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Do Gio Bernard and potentially Peterson count?

Added Gio and AP.

Edited September 15, 2019 by daylight

[daylight 166]

I am still interested in everyone's opinion on :

What are folks current (post-week1, pre-week2) opinions on Henderson/LAR and Thompson/KC - do they belong on the King Maker list? (yes, I drank the Kool-Aid)

(Same question for Dexter Williams/GB (pending LaFleur fielding a LAR offence instead of a 2018 TEN offence), Mike Boone/MIN and *any* NO back.)

(yes, I am repeating myself here but reaction to Week 1 on this thread would be appreciated - are these guys ALL HYPE or "for real")

[daylight 166]

CIN - Sunday Sep. 15 8:38ET - Mixon - Game Time Decision - but expected to play.

Edited September 15, 2019 by daylight

[Ilov80s 21,741]

45 minutes ago, daylight said:

Added Geo and AP.

As did I. 

[Ilov80s 21,741]

I am holding Gio even if Mixon plays. There is a chance he tweaks it, it becomes worse and this turns into a multi week issue.