Does anyone just target teams in their draft? Not too strictly, like trying to get a team’s QB/RB/WR, but focusing on a short list of teams you trust?
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Draft lessons learned (1 Viewer)
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DocHolliday
Footballguy
Boone22
Footballguy
I know this is mainly a redraft discussion but I’ll throw a Dynasty comment in too...
Situation can have a big impact. I know everyone says talent trumps situation but at this level all these guys are almost all talented. They need opportunity to prove themselves.
my recent example; I drafted McLaurin in the 4th round of the rookie draft. I knew nothing about him but I considered two factors:
1) Washington drafted him fairly high
2) Opportunity was there with only Paul Richardson in his way
now understand that these will miss more than they hit but in the 3rd and 4th rounds of a rookie draft, the picks are a crapshoot anyway.
Situation can have a big impact. I know everyone says talent trumps situation but at this level all these guys are almost all talented. They need opportunity to prove themselves.
my recent example; I drafted McLaurin in the 4th round of the rookie draft. I knew nothing about him but I considered two factors:
1) Washington drafted him fairly high
2) Opportunity was there with only Paul Richardson in his way
now understand that these will miss more than they hit but in the 3rd and 4th rounds of a rookie draft, the picks are a crapshoot anyway.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
That's something I routinely employ in the 96 team IBL league. Wilson, Lynch, Baldwin, Seattle D, and Sea K was very successful. Romo, Murray, Dez, and Witten was a team that was dominating most of the season but came up short of a title. Trying it again this year (to an extent) with Mahommes, Williams, Watkins, and Butker, but it was too expensive to add Hill or Kelce.
Pipes
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
We've had a weird year though, very few injuries at the position. Starting quarterbacks may have missed more games than starting running backs. This has been the worst season in recent memory for getting rbs off waivers. Next year could be completely different.
It's very true but on the whole it's better to have major depth at rb in my opinion
I have cook, henry, chubb, Jacobs and singletary
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
More thoughts on some excellent posts; a few more of my own to boot:
That said? The opposite is true -- watch and pay attention to what is happening in preseason. Look at performances in games when starters are in. Example: Hearing nothing but stellar things about Courtland Sutton through camp, seeing videos/game footage in the season, etc. convinced me he was poised to breakout. More on this below in my own thoughts.
Lots of discussion around TEs, but I tend to agree dependable ones are fewer and further between, and would rather have a set-and-forget. That said, I always forego the Top 3-4 that you need to get in the first 3 rounds -- always. I tier TEs and there is always a group of 4-5 TEs in the mid-tier that have a fall off in projected points/VBD where I draw the line under -- I will prioritize getting one of these before they are gone. This year, totally avoided Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz. Saw others reaching for Engram, Howard, and even Njoku. I was drafting WRs and RBs for value instead. My line was drawn under Austin Hooper -- who I grabbed -- and who was generally ranked around 10th TE and a "tier 3" guy, and after whom I saw a big drop off.
Backing up QB1 seems rational in the draft into the season -- if you lose your QB1 in Week 3, and don't have a guy who can support the position sustainably, if not at the same level as yrou starter, your season might be sunk as you face guys like Mahomes, Jackson, Brady, Rodgers, etc. every week. It burns a position slot, but if you are able to grab two Top 15 QBs, that's a huge cushion for your season.
Backing up your TE I am not as convinced of -- compared to burning a roster spot on a QB, holding a TE2 all year seems much more costly. You will still face the Kelces, Kittles, etc., but you will also face more streamers at TE than you will at QB any given week.
More of my own:
Watch football. Watch all the preseason you can, and watch as many games in the first few weeks that you can. To me, eye test is a real thing, and if you can actually see with your own eyes guys popping -- especially the RB2 coming in for relief, or how the QB was often checking down to a slot receiver -- these are the queues that keep you ahead of others who are just looking at stat lines and the instant info hot takes that now everyone has access to, from the most savvy GM to a first-time dart-thrower. It's becoming one of my main competitive differentiators.
There is always a heavy dose of coach-speak going on in preseason, and sometimes watching the games is misleading as skill players that are a little further down from the #1 guy are going off on 3rd and 4th stringers.
That said? The opposite is true -- watch and pay attention to what is happening in preseason. Look at performances in games when starters are in. Example: Hearing nothing but stellar things about Courtland Sutton through camp, seeing videos/game footage in the season, etc. convinced me he was poised to breakout. More on this below in my own thoughts.
Agree with all three. For the first, O-line 100% matters -- for both the RB and the WER. Look not just for rankings from last year, but key additions, turnover, and even (to the second point) impact of OC or line coach changes (and specifically schemes). Sometimes Olines need to gel with new personnel and moving from, say, man to zone block.
Lots of discussion around TEs, but I tend to agree dependable ones are fewer and further between, and would rather have a set-and-forget. That said, I always forego the Top 3-4 that you need to get in the first 3 rounds -- always. I tier TEs and there is always a group of 4-5 TEs in the mid-tier that have a fall off in projected points/VBD where I draw the line under -- I will prioritize getting one of these before they are gone. This year, totally avoided Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz. Saw others reaching for Engram, Howard, and even Njoku. I was drafting WRs and RBs for value instead. My line was drawn under Austin Hooper -- who I grabbed -- and who was generally ranked around 10th TE and a "tier 3" guy, and after whom I saw a big drop off.
I like the bolded -- you need to be wary of bad teams, but if a player has the volume and a solid supporting cast that helps him do his job, than there is upside. Henry is the perfect example of a guy who was going to get all the volume, zero competition in the run game, and the Titans upgraded their O-line with Saffold. Heavily targeted him in all my drafts despite conventional "wisdom" of the TItans being horrendous and Henry's past history of fantasy ineffectiveness (completely discounting the last half of last season). Said best here:
Don't let perceptions (highly variable, super frustrating in most years past, not dependable, etc.) overcome more recent and provable data (team was actually relying on Henry more in terms of carries, succeeded and had similar if not better line, etc.).
Backing up QB1 seems rational in the draft into the season -- if you lose your QB1 in Week 3, and don't have a guy who can support the position sustainably, if not at the same level as yrou starter, your season might be sunk as you face guys like Mahomes, Jackson, Brady, Rodgers, etc. every week. It burns a position slot, but if you are able to grab two Top 15 QBs, that's a huge cushion for your season.
Backing up your TE I am not as convinced of -- compared to burning a roster spot on a QB, holding a TE2 all year seems much more costly. You will still face the Kelces, Kittles, etc., but you will also face more streamers at TE than you will at QB any given week.
More of my own:
Watch football. Watch all the preseason you can, and watch as many games in the first few weeks that you can. To me, eye test is a real thing, and if you can actually see with your own eyes guys popping -- especially the RB2 coming in for relief, or how the QB was often checking down to a slot receiver -- these are the queues that keep you ahead of others who are just looking at stat lines and the instant info hot takes that now everyone has access to, from the most savvy GM to a first-time dart-thrower. It's becoming one of my main competitive differentiators.
I wonder if this is the direction (fewer RB injuries) moving forward because there are so many teams utilizing more than one RB so they aren't taking the pounding of the past. It could just be a luck thing and it hasn't happened but I think having less workhorses is a contributing factor.
I think this goes to the point of know your scoring rules. In IDP leagues that play so few spots in relation to the offense there will always be quality players on the waiver wire that you do not need to use draft capital to get quality IDP players. In addition to that, there isn't a lot of information easily locatable for IDP players so the majority of owners know the name guys but don't know the values for IDP. Let them take the name guys while you scoop up offensive talent that won't be on waivers and then fill in your IDP's with no name guys that perform just as well as the name IDP guys.
1. DB's - There are always top 10 DB's that come out of nowhere. I always draft the bare minimum and then watch the waiver wire for who is performing. DB's usually pop up and stay consistent within the year due to defensive scheme and the way offenses try and attack a defense. You can always find startable DB's this way and they are usually solid for the entire year. Wasting draft capital on DB's is usally a bad thing.IDP lessons applied this year that worked for me:
1. DBs are the kicker of the IDP world. If you only start 2, it’s insane to draft a DB early. I drafted 3 in the last 3 rounds. Replaced 2 of them, and have 3 top 10 DBs.
2. Defensive players, in general, get hurt a lot more frequently than offensive players. That doesn’t mean don’t invest - I always take 1-2 elite LB early, but don’t go nuts. I’ve found that year after year teams go offense for 5-6 rounds then lean way too hard into IDP. While they stack up on IDP I’m taking guys like Carson in the 4th & Lockett in the 6th, with LVE between em. Then I kept going with offense until about the 10th 11th. Then I felt good about scooping up LB & DL players that slipped. There are always sleepers & impact rookies with IDP - wait for them. Don’t get caught in the IDP run. By the time you’re out of the run the offensive depth has significantly thinned out.
3. It’s ok to punt on DL if you miss the top 7-8. DL’s fall off a cliff after the elite tier, and I’d rather take a RB4-5 than a 3rd tier DL. The difference between that guy & the dude you pluck off the wire is going to be marginal, but it might cost you a guy like Singletary, which is a huge hit to take.
4. know your scoring system. If you’re in a tackle-heavy format, sack specialists are almost worthless. If tackles are light, my advice in #3 kinda goes out the window - sack heavy scoring, is grab my bookends rounds 5-6, and then start scouting LBs.
5. if your league isn’t IDP, lobby you’re commish & leaguemates to change it. Team D/ST sucks and you’ll never want to draft a defense again. Plus just watching the games becomes more fun. As exciting as a 70 yard TD is for a WR, it’s got nothing on a “holy grail” play of a strip-sack DFR/DTD by your IDP player. And to any league curmudgeon complaining about high scoring, what’s wrong with scoring?! More scoring is more fun. That’s just science. Don’t @ me.
4. This is huge. In addition know your lineup format. If you are only starting a couple IDP players there will always be plenty of talent on the waiver wire and you do not have to waste draft capital on IDP guys if they are essentially meaningless because you only start 2 IDP compared to 8 offensive players. Scoring is also key. Most IDP sites seem to gear towards tackle heavy formats. If you play in a big play league there are lots of players that are way down the list that are premier elite guys. (Think Von Miller). They will be 30 ish in the rankings but will actually be top 5 guys for big play scoring. You can get huge value there.
5. I totally agree........but lobby for the IDP to be meaningful otherwise it is a waste of time. Playing one or two IDP's doesn't serve a purpose and then end up like kickers. You need to start equal number of IDP as offensive starters. You also need the scoring to be equal. Ideally the top tier of each position should score the same or similar points. If the top RB in your scoring system puts up 15 ppg then your top DL, LB and DB should also be putting up 15 ppg. If this isn't the case the IDP becomes an afterthought and has no value. It is difficult to pull this off because IDP scoring is usually a lot more boom/bust. In order to smooth this we have found adding categories really helps. For example, instead of having sacks be worth 8 pts break it down to each component.....sack is 3 pts, QB hit is 3 pts, and Tackle for loss is 2 pts. This has really helped smooth the peaks and valleys for IDP scoring.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
My main league is an IDP and I agree with all of this. Ours doesn't prioritize or make equal the IDP players. We play 4 of any position. I keep exactly 4 on my roster. If they have a bye, they get dropped because I know I'll be able to pick one up off the wire that is decent. Also in the draft I wait until almost the last few rounds.
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