Draft lessons learned (1 Viewer)

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Great thread idea, with excellent responses so far. Some thoughts on the thoughts:

Selecting WRs from an almost certain bad offense that runs a lot, despite the perceived quality of the players. Tennessee Titans

Courtland Sutton is either the exception that proves the rule, or proof that it may not matter if a WR has volume and talent. We can argue that DEN isn't an offense that runs "a lot" -- in fact I think their run/pass ratio tilts towards pass, but I think that's a function of their certainly bad offense and being behind a lot. That team is definitely built to run.

History is a great tool to base decisions on and regression is a real thing. For example, teams that scored 500+ points the previous season almost always have drop offs the following season for any number or reasons (KC, NO, LAR) and people will expect the same level of production. Those teams are on pace for 448, 390, and 428 points scored this season. A lot of that is due to injuries, but that's one of the reasons why things don't often repeat themselves.

You caveated this correctly as injury is the primary factor for KC and NO. So maybe this rule is simply the old adage that regression to the mean is a real thing, and you can't predict injury. The first is a good guide for drafting; the second I don't see matters in terms of drafting strategy -- I would still draft Mahomes as the first QB off the board knowing a regression might come. I wouldn't avoid him because injury to him and others on the team would hamper the team's ability to perform at a similar high level as last year.

Stay away from RB's on the Patriots

Unless you are in a PPR. I have always looked for the primary pass catching back for years in my 2/3 pt PPR - White, Dion Lewis, Faulk, even Vereen and Woodhead are/were quality flex material.  

I passed on Eckler to take Duke Johnson. I bought into the fact he was traded for a third round pick and would be a big part of this offense. The mistake is taking a pass catching back on a team with a running QB. 

Great adage -- a potential related one is when it comes to choosing between two RBs, go with the one with the stronger D, as opposed to the cruddy D where the QB will need to pass all the time to catch up.

Be wary of the 1st round pick with an early bye week. It will put you at an immediate disadvantage against a divisional opponent when that player sits.

I get where you are coming from, but I don't take bye weeks into account at all with my first 2-3 picks, and especially the Round 1 pick -- I'm optimizing for the points he will give me all season, not indexing to what might happen the game he is out. 

To that end, I don't pay attention to byes for starting RBs and WRs -- rather have many people in a position out in one week if I think they are the better players to help me all season long.

I do pay attention to byes of the RB2+, WR2+, starting TEs, Ks, Ds, and QB1 (and obviously QB2) -- you want depth that can fill in credibly for starters on byes, and harder to do if you have multiple guys out across multiple positions.

This.   Three good RBs are a must in my league and probably most other leagues.   I feel like try to get three during every draft, but  always find myself trying to find that third RB all season.   

This is my own personal credo and one of my rock-hard rules every seaso -- have the best RB3 in the league.

Trying to find the best flex RB I possibly can, all season long, is a continuous focus of mine every week. I will gladly trade off receiver depth to build depth with starting RBs who have volume or primary pass catching RBs with a secure role in a high octane offense. They have way more value than boom/bust or more unpredictable higher floor WRs given positional scarcity, injury risk, and trade value as the season goes on.

 

[ericttspikes]

Drafting TE’s early in TE premium leagues didn’t pay off for me. My RB/RB start teams are my best this year. 

 

[BassNBrew]

A lot of people are saying to not draft RB from bad teams, or do not draft WR with bad QB.

Well at the beginning of the season did you know who the bad teams and QB were?

Baker Mayfield was being drafted as a top 12 QB this season. He had a great rookie season. He was expected to improve on that not regress. 

It seems like too much hindsight to actually be actionable next season.

For all we know the Browns improve their offensive line and Mayfield plays great next season. So avoiding good WR paired with him could be a lesson learned this year to only need to be unlearned again next year.

RB have had good seasons on bad teams plenty of times before.

Not applicable. Everyone knows rule number 1 don’t draft Browns. 

 

[Runnyb]

I only play in a 2qb league (12 team redraft), but the lesson I've slowly learned over the last decade has been to get an average 3rd qb soon, get 2 solid RBs and wait on WRs. Maybe this year was a fluke, but there was a lot of WRs available late and on the WW that have performed well.

 

[BradtheAg]

This year has reinforced two of my long-time rules (load up on RB early and wait on QB) and made me re-think one (stream TE).

 

[zamboni]

Don’t let strength of schedule dictate your draft picks, thinking that a player has a good or bad playoff schedule. Defenses change from year to year (as Anarchy pointed out) and things change quickly intra-year as well.

 

[Biabreakable]

Not applicable. Everyone knows rule number 1 don’t draft Browns. 

Hard to argue with that.

One of these years they may turn it around?

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Kind of a regular season lesson learned, but still related to the draft:

Don't get too attached to guys you've drafted for depth and upside if they aren't performing, in favor of break-out candidates that emerging around Week 2.

I learned this the hard way last year and held on to a depth RB I thought would overcome a time share because of talent, and missed out on some breakout candidates.

This year, I drafted Barber thinking like last year, he'd be the guy with more attempts and RoJo would be ineffective like last year.

After a ~5 point performance and seeing carries split more RoJo way as he had the hot hand, shed him before Week 2 for Chark seeing his WK1 break out game and needing to fill in for Hill. 

 

[wlwiles]

Not exactly a draft lesson, but close enough - in the past several years, I’ve typically done well by NOT jumping for the Week 1/2 waiver darlings, and instead holding pat, moving up in priority, and pouncing on the underperformers who got dropped for the darlings. 

But that didn’t happen this year.  Hollywood, Chark, McLaurin, Waller, RoJo, Fells, and Hyde all got pounced on like they should have, but what got dropped (and what I ended up waiting on) was players like Penny, Gio, Goodwin, Barber, or backup QBs.  I missed out on some great additions by ignoring what they actually did and just assuming history would repeat itself. 

 

[tjnc09]

History is a great tool to base decisions on and regression is a real thing. For example, teams that scored 500+ points the previous season almost always have drop offs the following season for any number or reasons (KC, NO, LAR) and people will expect the same level of production. Those teams are on pace for 448, 390, and 428 points scored this season. A lot of that is due to injuries, but that's one of the reasons why things don't often repeat themselves.

You can't predict injuries so I don't know what your point is with this post.  Should we have avoided these teams and targeted players from garbage offenses like the Bengals, Bears and Redskins instead?

 

[zamboni]

We say it every year, but take preseason hype/performance with a heavy dose of salt.

Darwin Thompson serves as a prime example this year.

 

[rockaction]

Don't draft players on teams that you wouldn't want to watch.   If you have players from the Jets and Bengals, you'll have to watch Jets and Bengals games.  Why would you want to do that to yourself?

This is excellent advice and I find myself using it every year. I also try hard to trade players on teams I wanted to see but can't stand to look at anymore because the player or situation was clearly not as advertised (I'm lookin' at you, Browns). That way, even when I don't win, I win.

 

[GoBirds]

Don't start drinking hours before your draft. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Don’t draft tyreek, Davante and Patrick first 3 rounds...

I went Davante ~> Tyreek ~> ACooper

i’m 7-2 



so I guess there’s an “unless” statement here. “Unless the rest of your draft can carry you while they’re all hurt at various times”. 

honestly pre-season I was psyched with these guys as my first 3 picks. 

and Cooper’s foot “issue” was why he fell to 3.08, so about that “don’t draft guys why are already hurt”, well, that can work out too sometimes, though he’s had like eleventy gillion injuries since. 

I’ll go with “grab up as many lottery tickets RBs as your bench allows”. I did this more this year than ever & have hit on almost all of them (Singletary, LMurray, Samuels, Edmonds, Ronald Jones) The ones I didn’t hit on and even a few I did became valuable depth & trade bait. It’s always easier to sweeten up a deal to another owner if you can toss in the handcuff to their RB1. So not only did those guys all contribute to my starting lineup at one point or another, but I was able to turn 3 of them in bigger packages. 

This was my lesson learned from 2018, and it’s helped a ton this year.

also, I’d like to second “don’t take players from teams you don’t want to watch”, and add “don’t draft players from crappy teams”. Bell may the perfect example - he’s RB15 PPR, which isn’t terrible, but likely not what owners were expecting on draft day. I’m thrilled to not have any Jets, Dolphins or Redskins on my redraft team, and I’m only happy I have Sutton & Boyd because that’s a dynasty league. 

good topic - this is a post LCG postmortem exercise I do every year. I go back to the photo I took of the draft board, look at my notes from the draft & consider what I could have done differently. Mid-season is just as good a point to do it. 

 

[TheWinz]

I am gonna break this down by position, during my redraft this year.  I will try to steer clear of player names, as that's not really the point of this thread (but I'm sure a few names will pop up).  Anyway, it was a 10-team, 17 round draft.  QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, 2 flex (RB, WR, or TE), K, and D, with 7 bench spots.  Here we go...

Defense - After 10 rounds, I had selected 1 QB, 4 RB, 4 WR, and 1 TE.  I was very happy with my weekly starting lineup, so I decided to jump first and chose CHI D in the 11th (chasing points from last year's leader).  As soon as I selected them, I saw they faced GB week 1, so what did I do?  Grabbed BAL with my next pick, because they opened the season vs the Dolphins.  Selecting 2 D's is dumb enough, but to make them back to back picks in the 11th and 12th is insane.  Next year, I will force myself to wait and select a D that faces whoever I consider a crappy offense in week 1.  It's no coincidence that NYJ & MIA, the 2 lowest scoring teams in the league, along with TB, who hand out sacks and turnovers like they were candy, are the 3 easiest teams for D's to score against.  The top fantasy defenses have been changing rapidly from year to year, but crappy offenses tend to remain.

Lessons learned include:

- Start drinking when you start your draft - not 3 hours prior.

- In a 10-team league, there are more than enough options left in free agency each week.

- The Patriots schedule the first 8 weeks may have been the easiest ever.  They will come back down to earth, but for now, they trail only 5 QB's and 2 RB's in my league scoring.  The next closest D has only 60% of the points that NE has.  In VBD terms, that would've made them worthy of a 1st round pick.

- Don't sit back and admire your team after 10 rounds like I did.

- While it's not bad to be the first to take a D, it is bad to take that D 4 rounds before anyone else.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

- Don't sit back and admire your team after 10 rounds like I did.

Public rosterbation is never cool, and is most certainly an ettiquite issue. Plus, you can go blind.

that said; there’s nothing wrong with a little roster evaluation at the mid-way point of the draft to strategize your next few rounds. 

 

[TheWinz]

Public rosterbation is never cool, and is most certainly an ettiquite issue. Plus, you can go blind.

that said; there’s nothing wrong with a little roster evaluation at the mid-way point of the draft to strategize your next few rounds. 

Problem is, I didn't evaluate it - I admired it.  I still remember thinking, when I chose the Bears in round 11... CHAMPIONSHIP!!!  I was the guy who celebrated too soon.

 

[JohnnyU]

Public rosterbation is never cool,

Won't that get you 5 to 10?

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

Don't get cute and take Adams and Kelce with your first two picks. Take D. Cook and N.Chubb instead. Your season will turn out better than 1-9 at this point. 

 

[TheWinz]

Kicker - Top kickers have been more consistent than top D's in recent years.  Tucker has finished top 10 every year since he joined the league in 2012.  We all pretty much know the guys we expect to finish up near the top (Butker, Lutz, Zuerlein, to name a few).  I will be looking for a late bye kicker, and not playing matchups.  Just set it and forget it with your stud.  It's too much hassle to stream kickers.  And no, you shouldn't be carrying 2 kickers, unless you have a top dog and need a bye week filler.

Fun fact - No player, currently in the top 10 this year, at any position, has a longer top 10 streak than Tucker.  If Brees can get there before season's end, he will blow past Tucker, because his streak dates back to 2005.

- 

 

[fightingillini]

Going forward, I am going to look at the offensive line rankings more closely.  Hard to be successful when your OL sucks.  

Also, look at coaching changes more closely.  Assume their past tendencies.  Be conservative when it's close.....take the player where you're more confident of their role and the coach's philosophy.   As they say....."You can't teach an old dog new tricks".  I am looking at YOU, Bruce Arians.  Sorry for all that wasted a pick on OJ Howard, when you could have waited later and took a Austin Hooper or Darren Waller or Mark Andrews.

While there were some good TEs drafted later, the position is still quite shallow, while the WR position is so deep.  I may want to invest in a solid TE earlier than usual (but I still think taking Kelce early is a mistake).   Instead of taking a WR3 in rounds 5-6, take a solid TE like Hunter Henry.  You can get multiple WRs later (or a guy like DJ Chark off the WW) than can help you fill your WR3 slot.....they may outperform the WR3 that you thought about taking in round 5-6.

 

[fightingillini]

Kicker - Top kickers have been more consistent than top D's in recent years.  Tucker has finished top 10 every year since he joined the league in 2012.  We all pretty much know the guys we expect to finish up near the top (Butker, Lutz, Zuerlein, to name a few).  I will be looking for a late bye kicker, and not playing matchups.  Just set it and forget it with your stud.  It's too much hassle to stream kickers.  And no, you shouldn't be carrying 2 kickers, unless you have a top dog and need a bye week filler.

Fun fact - No player, currently in the top 10 this year, at any position, has a longer top 10 streak than Tucker.  If Brees can get there before season's end, he will blow past Tucker, because his streak dates back to 2005.

- 

Depends on when the top kickers are drafted in your league.  If they are drafted fairly early (say rounds 10-12)....hard pass.  Rather stream the position and take my chances.  But if they are drafted in say round 15-16 in an 18 round draft, sure I would take the Tucker/Zuerlein kicker and forget about the position.

 

[habsfan]

Depends on when the top kickers are drafted in your league.  If they are drafted fairly early (say rounds 10-12)....hard pass.  Rather stream the position and take my chances.  But if they are drafted in say round 15-16 in an 18 round draft, sure I would take the Tucker/Zuerlein kicker and forget about the position.

You can't argue with this logic. The only footnote I would add is that "take my chances" over the course of a season can result in quite a mixed bag (points wise). I drafted Tucker for his accuracy and consistency, content that he wouldn't be the reason I lost in any given week. As part of that pick I also don't have to deal with the weekly grind of sifting through the wire for someone. Set and forget is a real thing.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Don't get cute and take Adams and Kelce with your first two picks. Take D. Cook and N.Chubb instead. Your season will turn out better than 1-9 at this point. 

This is merely hindsight being 20-20 though. You took Adams because he was potentially the #1 PPR WR, and very likely too 3.

kelce is argue was a bad pick, just because I never spend a top 7 round pick on an elite TE. Some years that’s been a mistake (passed on Gronk/Gates/TGonz many times and regretted it) but most years you’ll do just fine with a Goedart or Dissley (before he got hurt) off the FA list. 

 

[rockaction]

Depends on when the top kickers are drafted in your league.  If they are drafted fairly early (say rounds 10-12)....hard pass.  Rather stream the position and take my chances.  But if they are drafted in say round 15-16 in an 18 round draft, sure I would take the Tucker/Zuerlein kicker and forget about the position.

Absolutely, and I think there are tiers and value to kickers, so it's not like I'm dismissing it. I'd just rather take a position player and pick a kicker based on weekly matchups than a kicker early like that. That's a no-go.  I think Round 15 of 18 is even too early.

 

[TheWinz]

Tight End - I went against my own advice this year and took Kelce at the 2/3 turn.  Waller was getting hyped up in the SP, and I was on board, yet couldn't resist and pulled the Kelce trigger.  Of course, once I had Kelce, I told myself not to draft another, as he has a late bye.  FYI - Waller wasn't even drafted in my 10-team league, and was picked up after he had a good week 1.  Note to self - it's OK to draft a backup TE before taking your 8th RB.  I tried to corner the market on RB handcuffs, and missed out on one of my own sleeper TE's.

Lessons learned include...

- The TE position is getting deeper

- SP group think did a wonderful job this year with TE's

- Deshaun Watson loves TE's and hates RB's

 

[rockaction]

Lessons learned include...

- The TE position is getting deeper

Funny, because I was arguing this and people were insisting that the TE position is thin. That's the common narrative I hear. I don't agree it's thin -- I agree with you; but that's the refrain. 

 

[fightingillini]

Funny, because I was arguing this and people were insisting that the TE position is thin. That's the common narrative I hear. I don't agree it's thin -- I agree with you; but that's the refrain. 

It's deeper in that you can get one in a pinch.  But it's shallow if you're looking for a consistent option.  How many TEs can you rely on as your everyweek starter?

Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Waller, Engram, Hooper, Henry, Andrews are the ones that come to mind.  That's 8 TEs.

 

[rockaction]

It's deeper in that you can get one in a pinch.  But it's shallow if you're looking for a consistent option. 

That's a good point but a distinction not many people make when they're talking about the narrative. To me, that's important, as I used to stream tight ends, too. I'd rather have a more consistent performer these days, though. But when people talk about TEs being thin, my default position is stream or late, and that being the case, it's not thin, just has huge variance if you're looking for one starter all year.

 

[TheWinz]

Wide Receiver - I have a bad habit of taking "name" WR's.  I tend to end up with over-the-hill has been's who miss games due to old age.  Have to make a concerted effort to trust younger WR's more.  I won't list all my WR's, but I will say their average age is 29.25 years.  As for WR's on good teams with good QB's, I tend to disagree.  4 of the top 10 WR's thus far are on losing teams.

Lessons learned include...

- Tyler Lockett was stuck behind an inferior Doug Baldwin, and is now flying high.  He is for real.

- Roster more than 4, even if you think you are set.  The waiver wire is for bye week fillers and up and comers - not to replace your entire WR corps.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

IDP lessons applied this year that worked for me:

1. DBs are the kicker of the IDP world. If you only start 2, it’s insane to draft a DB early. I drafted 3 in the last 3 rounds. Replaced 2 of them, and have 3 top 10 DBs.

2. Defensive players, in general, get hurt a lot more frequently than offensive players. That doesn’t mean don’t invest - I always take 1-2 elite LB early, but don’t go nuts. I’ve found that year after year teams go offense for 5-6 rounds then lean way too hard into IDP.  While they stack up on IDP I’m taking guys like Carson in the 4th & Lockett in the 6th, with LVE between em. Then I kept going with offense until about the 10th 11th. Then I felt good about scooping up LB & DL players that slipped. There are always sleepers & impact rookies with IDP - wait for them. Don’t get caught in the IDP run. By the time you’re out of the run the offensive depth has significantly thinned out.

3. It’s ok to punt on DL if you miss the top 7-8. DL’s fall off a cliff after the elite tier, and I’d rather take a RB4-5 than a 3rd tier DL. The difference between that guy & the dude you pluck off the wire is going to be marginal, but it might cost you a guy like Singletary, which is a huge hit to take. 

4. know your scoring system. If you’re in a tackle-heavy format, sack specialists are almost worthless. If tackles are light, my advice in #3 kinda goes out the window - sack heavy scoring, is grab my bookends rounds 5-6, and then start scouting LBs. 

5. if your league isn’t IDP, lobby you’re commish & leaguemates to change it. Team D/ST sucks and you’ll never want to draft a defense again. Plus just watching the games becomes more fun. As exciting as a 70 yard TD is for a WR, it’s got nothing on a “holy grail” play of a strip-sack DFR/DTD by your IDP player. And to any league curmudgeon complaining about high scoring, what’s wrong with scoring?! More scoring is more fun. That’s just science. Don’t @ me.    

 

[TheWinz]

It's deeper in that you can get one in a pinch.  But it's shallow if you're looking for a consistent option.  How many TEs can you rely on as your everyweek starter?

Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Waller, Engram, Hooper, Henry, Andrews are the ones that come to mind.  That's 8 TEs.

I stand corrected.  When I said TE is getting deeper, the numbers below suggest the opposite.  They represent the number of TE's who topped 150 FP.  If anything, startable TE's are getting more rare.  Our standards have just went down.  BTW, only 9 are currently on pace for 150 this year.

2018 - 7

2017 - 8

2016 - 11

2015 - 11

2014 - 12

2013 - 11

2012 - 11

2011 - 14

2010 - 13

2009 - 13

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

This is merely hindsight being 20-20 though. You took Adams because he was potentially the #1 PPR WR, and very likely too 3.

kelce is argue was a bad pick, just because I never spend a top 7 round pick on an elite TE. Some years that’s been a mistake (passed on Gronk/Gates/TGonz many times and regretted it) but most years you’ll do just fine with a Goedart or Dissley (before he got hurt) off the FA list. 

I think it was more because of where I was drafting. Due to the league setup I had the 8th in the first round, 1st in second round (13th overall), and then didn't have another pick until 9th in the 3rd round (33rd overall). Went Adams/Kelce/AJones. Wish I would have gone Cook/Chubb/WR or TE in hindsight. I was even debating during the draft which way to go. Took the full 3 minutes with each pick hemming and hawing, Probable what makes it worse now. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think it was more because of where I was drafting. Due to the league setup I had the 8th in the first round, 1st in second round (13th overall), and then didn't have another pick until 9th in the 3rd round (33rd overall). Went Adams/Kelce/AJones. Wish I would have gone Cook/Chubb/WR or TE in hindsight. I was even debating during the draft which way to go. Took the full 3 minutes with each pick hemming and hawing, Probable what makes it worse now. 

Makes sense; and not blaming you at all. Also sorry for my broken English, was using voice to text, which never works out. 
 

Lol 

but yeah - I’ve had those “f it!” panic picks. They usually work out as well as voice to text.  

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

Makes sense; and not blaming you at all. Also sorry for my broken English, was using voice to text, which never works out. 
 

Lol 

but yeah - I’ve had those “f it!” panic picks. They usually work out as well as voice to text.  

All good. Didn't see anything wrong with what you typed. Was just explaining myself.

 

[wlwiles]

IDP lessons applied this year that worked for me:

1. DBs are the kicker of the IDP world. If you only start 2, it’s insane to draft a DB early. I drafted 3 in the last 3 rounds. Replaced 2 of them, and have 3 top 10 DBs.

2. Defensive players, in general, get hurt a lot more frequently than offensive players. That doesn’t mean don’t invest - I always take 1-2 elite LB early, but don’t go nuts. I’ve found that year after year teams go offense for 5-6 rounds then lean way too hard into IDP.  While they stack up on IDP I’m taking guys like Carson in the 4th & Lockett in the 6th, with LVE between em. Then I kept going with offense until about the 10th 11th. Then I felt good about scooping up LB & DL players that slipped. There are always sleepers & impact rookies with IDP - wait for them. Don’t get caught in the IDP run. By the time you’re out of the run the offensive depth has significantly thinned out.

3. It’s ok to punt on DL if you miss the top 7-8. DL’s fall off a cliff after the elite tier, and I’d rather take a RB4-5 than a 3rd tier DL. The difference between that guy & the dude you pluck off the wire is going to be marginal, but it might cost you a guy like Singletary, which is a huge hit to take. 

4. know your scoring system. If you’re in a tackle-heavy format, sack specialists are almost worthless. If tackles are light, my advice in #3 kinda goes out the window - sack heavy scoring, is grab my bookends rounds 5-6, and then start scouting LBs. 

5. if your league isn’t IDP, lobby you’re commish & leaguemates to change it. Team D/ST sucks and you’ll never want to draft a defense again. Plus just watching the games becomes more fun. As exciting as a 70 yard TD is for a WR, it’s got nothing on a “holy grail” play of a strip-sack DFR/DTD by your IDP player. And to any league curmudgeon complaining about high scoring, what’s wrong with scoring?! More scoring is more fun. That’s just science. Don’t @ me.    

I’m in a 14 team league with 4 IDP spots (LB, DL, DB, flex) and your #2 point above is me to a T.  In my league as soon as the 8th round hits (after everyone has their 1/2/2/1/1 filled), everybody immediately dives into the top tier DL, safety, or LB positions, and they pretty much all go four rounds in a row filling their IDP spots.  Meanwhile I sat back picking up ESanders, Singletary, AJ Green (oof now but was ecstatic then), and Waller in R8-11.  

I still ended up with (so far based on total points) the #2 DL (Hunter), #1 DB (Ryan), and #5 & #7 LBs (Littleton/Kuechly).  

Makes no sense to me when the average IDP player score equals a kicker why everyone goes nuts for them so early. I’m happy to have first pick at filling my bench though! 

 

[tigerz]

1. Due your due diligence and trust your picks. Was big on VBD previously. I always got to playoffs but I always hated my teams because I'd have guys i didn't believe in. Doesn't matter if they were value picks if they weren't hits. This year I just looked for safe picks that I believed in for first 6 rounds. I missed out on guys like Dalvin Cook but I was right about guys like LJ, Carson, Kupp, Godwin, etc. Unless your league mates suck, you probably won't get them using VDB. Taking them a round early is worth it imo. 
   
2. Pick the team, not just the player. I really liked Chiefs and Ravens this year. I bought into the hype and got multiple players from both teams. I still factored the player into the equation but I value the team and o-line very highly and it helps me when I'm picking a safe choice vs a risky choice as I favor stable offenses that can take a step forward. 
   
3. Do not be afraid of NOT going RB heavy in a flex heavy Non-PPR league. In the past I always thought my flex always had to be a RB. This year, I focused on getting quality RBs for my starters but for my flex I went for WRs like Kupp, Golladay, Goodwin, Lockett because I saw the value there over the RB in those rounds. Unless you got a top 5 RB, a top 10 RB vs top 10 WR or top 15 RB vs top 15 WR aren't that different. However, getting a RB25 instead of a top 15 WR is.
   
4. Do not write off players on bad teams completely. Just do more due diligence and figure out if the player can overcome the situation or if the situation may not be as bad as indicated. i.e. Dalvin Cook (injury prone overreaction), Derrick Henry (titans bad offense), Fournette (injury prone). I think there can be markers that separate them from guys like Desean Jackson, Joe Mixon, etc.
   
5. Do not be afraid to take a risk if there is a good backup plan available. Melvin Gordon with Eckler. Dalvin Cook with Mattison. It's hard to find these situations but if you feel uneasy about a starter, I think getting the backup is a good idea if you truly believe that role on that team is worth something.
   
6. Do not forget to backup your QB1/TE1. Always take a shot on a high upside backups even if you are set on QB1 and got someone like Mahomes. Getting LJ as a backup was basically free and way better value than anyone else at round 12. Same with TE. I didn't get someone else when I got Kelce as TE1 but there was value with guys like Andrews, Hooper, and Waller. Should try to find the upside and not forget positions.
   
7. Do not fear going QB / TE early. If you got Mahomes and Kelce you are still better off than many others who missed in rounds 1-3. 
   
8. Every year is different. Don't think that if last year many handcuffs emerged that this year the same thing will happen. Don't assume that Melvin Gordon will hold out the entire year because Leveon Bell did. 
   
9. Don't fall in love with a player's upside and blindly stack them over guys that have similar or slightly lower upside and higher floors. High floor players have value on your roster. Guys like Justice Hill, Hockenson, Darwin Thompson, etc were very hyped but guys like Hooper, Waller, Howard, Murray, Breida, J. Williams actually scored points as starters instead of sitting on your bench giving you 0.
   

 

[davearm]

Never take a player that is already injured

Don't get too attached to guys you've drafted for depth and upside if they aren't performing, in favor of break-out candidates that emerging around Week 2.

My lesson learned is that there are counter-examples to all of the anecdotal takes here.

"No injured players" guy missed out on OBJ's rookie year.

"Don't get too attached" guy dropped Nick Chubb last year.

"Avoid RBs on bad teams" guy misses out on Barkley.

etc. etc.

Sometimes these rules save you from disasters, other times they cost you great opportunities.

 

[davearm]

It's OK to forgo name brand value and projected rank at RB for guys you think will have solid, steady volume without competition.

In a 14 team RB focused league, went WR in RD 1 from a late round slot after the big 4 (CMC, Zeke, Kamara, Barkley) were gone. Guys up next were RBs that were projected highly by all, nearly all were really talked up as 1st round no-brainers, but I really had questions about them -- DJ, Conner, Bell, Gurley, Fournette, and Mixon. Thought it was too high in RD1 to reach for a Chubb or Cook and though one might fall to me coming back in RD2.

Unfortunately Chubb or Cook did not fall (Cook taken in pick right before mine in RD2) so was eyeing two RBs that I knew were the centerpieces of their offensive running game, didn't think they had competition for carries given what I saw from their benches and usage last year:

Derrick Henry

Chris Carson

I thought that either could easily be a Top 10 RB if their usage remained. Got em both. Was laughed at pretty soundly for trotting these guys out as my RB1 and RB2.

Meanwhile, they are BOTH Top 10 backs.

Lesson: Sometimes with RBs a dependable role with high volume and little competition is worth more than sexier consensus pick where you might have lingering doubts about usage of these other backs, how the offense might fare around them with new personnel, coaches, etc.

Solid advice, but coming into the year, Derrick Henry was about the last guy you'd label dependable role and high volume.

He was the king of the 200 yard game followed by a long string of 30 yard games.  One of the most frustrating fantasy players out there the last few year.

 

[cloppbeast]

The best lesson I've learned which might apply to future years: don't be scared to use your FAAB after the week 1.

 

[FF Ninja]

Don't take the decent RBs on a terrible offense that will always be playing from behind before round three (Mixon comes to mind).

I've seen Mixon mentioned a couple times, but what happened to Cincy to take them from 6-10 to 0-9? I mean, they weren't good last season, but Mixon was still a top 10 RB. I don't feel like this season's results were predictable. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I've seen Mixon mentioned a couple times, but what happened to Cincy to take them from 6-10 to 0-9? I mean, they weren't good last season, but Mixon was still a top 10 RB. I don't feel like this season's results were predictable. 

The injury to Green, their 1st round OL getting hurt and I think their top OG retiring. All that happening before the season started had me avoiding Mixon.

 

[NREC34]

Just quit paying attention all offseason and let it auto draft. Then barely pay any attention until the baseball playoffs end. 

Might have my best team ever and did not spend all that time overthinking it. 

 

[FF Ninja]

The injury to Green, their 1st round OL getting hurt and I think their top OG retiring. All that happening before the season started had me avoiding Mixon.

Green missed half the season last year and they didn't have that 1st round OL last year. Don't get me wrong, I didn't really want Mixon.. I only have him in a single league and I got him relatively cheaply (was lightly price enforcing in an auction). I just think people are leaning a little heavily on hindsight. The differences between last year when he was RB9 (17.4 ppg) and this season when he's RB38 (10.7 ppg) aren't THAT drastic. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Green missed half the season last year and they didn't have that 1st round OL last year. Don't get me wrong, I didn't really want Mixon.. I only have him in a single league and I got him relatively cheaply (was lightly price enforcing in an auction). I just think people are leaning a little heavily on hindsight. The differences between last year when he was RB9 (17.4 ppg) and this season when he's RB38 (10.7 ppg) aren't THAT drastic. 

Sure that’s all true. Just seemed like lots of negativity around the team/offense going into the year which I try to avoid.

 

[fightingillini]

I think it was more because of where I was drafting.

Lesson learned here.......make your draft an auction

Problem solved.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This is a good thread for me to share my philosophy and why I have stopped reading so much off season fluff pieces and try to follow the actual moves by the teams and not listen so much to outside noise or hype. The NFL is a machine and people make a lot of money presenting stories and things about the NFL that don't really matter in terms of The Game-fantasy football. This game shadows the NFL and tries to mimic things but it's really just Dungeons and Dragons repackaged for sports.

1st Round-Make it a point to find someone with a reliable track record, not just a 1 year career numbers guy that should go 3 rounds later by all logical metrics. Don't lose the season in the 1st round, sometimes it can't be avoided and I get that. 

2nd/3rd-By the end of the 3rd round you should have 1-2 RBs secured on your team I believe in that strongly. Chasing RBs in the middle of the season or realizing you got a bag of donuts as your stable of RBs is going to pretty much render you DOA at some point. You just won't have the horses to play when it comes for the playoffs or that push we are all in right now. I just went 1-1 vs the Division Leaders, top Wildcard team at the moment and I am just getting Mahomes back, Gordon taking shape, it's looking better. 

Wide Receivers:They are streaky, I get why folks grab them early, especially the Top 10-15 projected guys with track records 2-5 years, hard to go wrong with them. But the reality is almost every week in leagues I play there are multiple WRs that have some appeal on the Waiver Wire. You can find a guy and get 10-15+ in PPR but the RBs not so much so I go back earlier and tell you to not fall for the bait. You are going to feel that others have stronger 1-2-3 punches at WR but you can still take them down in the playoffs and they are sacrificing their other spots. 

So I think don't read too much fluff or hype stuff, it only makes you lock in on guys and miss good value in the draft. The 1st 6 round or so, anyone can draft those rounds, it's the middle and later rounds that give you depth and confidence to make moves going forward. 

Cheers!

 

[TLEF316]

If you REALLY dont trust a coach,  take a REAL hard look before you take one of their players as a key guy on your team.

I HATED the Adam Gase hire. Absolutely hated it. But I really believe in Leveon Bell's talent (and assumed that Darnold would lead an ascending Jets offense) and took him at 7.   Obviously other factors have played a part (injuries to Herndon, Enunwa and Darnold, the horrible O-line, tough first half schedule) but the bottom line is that Gase is a clown who has absolutely no idea how to exploit an elite talent like Bell. Just keeps running him into a brick wall behind a terrible O-line.  So next year, I'm gonna make damn well sure that my first rounder has a guy with a brain calling the plays, even if that means taking a slightly lesser talent.

 

[fightingillini]

This is a good thread for me to share my philosophy and why I have stopped reading so much off season fluff pieces and try to follow the actual moves by the teams and not listen so much to outside noise or hype. The NFL is a machine and people make a lot of money presenting stories and things about the NFL that don't really matter in terms of The Game-fantasy football. This game shadows the NFL and tries to mimic things but it's really just Dungeons and Dragons repackaged for sports.

1st Round-Make it a point to find someone with a reliable track record, not just a 1 year career numbers guy that should go 3 rounds later by all logical metrics. Don't lose the season in the 1st round, sometimes it can't be avoided and I get that. 

2nd/3rd-By the end of the 3rd round you should have 1-2 RBs secured on your team I believe in that strongly. Chasing RBs in the middle of the season or realizing you got a bag of donuts as your stable of RBs is going to pretty much render you DOA at some point. You just won't have the horses to play when it comes for the playoffs or that push we are all in right now. I just went 1-1 vs the Division Leaders, top Wildcard team at the moment and I am just getting Mahomes back, Gordon taking shape, it's looking better. 

Wide Receivers:They are streaky, I get why folks grab them early, especially the Top 10-15 projected guys with track records 2-5 years, hard to go wrong with them. But the reality is almost every week in leagues I play there are multiple WRs that have some appeal on the Waiver Wire. You can find a guy and get 10-15+ in PPR but the RBs not so much so I go back earlier and tell you to not fall for the bait. You are going to feel that others have stronger 1-2-3 punches at WR but you can still take them down in the playoffs and they are sacrificing their other spots. 

So I think don't read too much fluff or hype stuff, it only makes you lock in on guys and miss good value in the draft. The 1st 6 round or so, anyone can draft those rounds, it's the middle and later rounds that give you depth and confidence to make moves going forward. 

Cheers!

To add to this great post.......

You will be much better off passing on a solid WR3 (say a top 25-30 guy) in rounds 5-6 to get that RB3.  As MOP illustrates, you can get WRs later in the draft and off of the WW.  Having 3 solid RBs is huge.  Just ask the owner who lost Saquon or Kamara for a few weeks.  Plus, RBs are always the most expensive to trade for.  You hold 3 solid backs, you hold the hammer in trade negotiations.

Don't be that guy that drafts their starting lineup before backups.  Their lineup may look really good, but they won't have RB depth, and they are one RB injury away from being in bad shape.

 

[J R]

This is a good thread for me to share my philosophy and why I have stopped reading so much off season fluff pieces and try to follow the actual moves by the teams and not listen so much to outside noise or hype. The NFL is a machine and people make a lot of money presenting stories and things about the NFL that don't really matter in terms of The Game-fantasy football. This game shadows the NFL and tries to mimic things but it's really just Dungeons and Dragons repackaged for sports.

Good rule. All fluff. Mindlessly entertaining at best, distorting and misleading at worst.