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Prediction Time - No. 5 Bills vs. No. 4 Texans -3.5

Prediction Time - No. 5 Bills vs. No. 4 Texans -3.5  

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Bills are a tough "Blue Collar" team with a pretty good defense.  I'll take defense over offense during the playoffs.

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Since I could easily see the Bills winning outright give me the points. Houston has some major talent on offense but the Bills should be able to find a way to make this a slog type of game.

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Will wait on Will Fuller V's and J.J. Watt's status. I would take the points and go with Buffalo because I'm not sold on Houston's defense, and DeShaun, without Fuller, can have a rough go of it. But Houston also annihilated NE at home, so there's that.

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Bills defense vs Texans Offense

Gimme the Bills.

Bills 17

Texans 12

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I think the Bills are still a year away from being legitimate contenders.  Houston has a penchant for scoring in bunches, and I think they get some big strikes early and hold on for the win.

Houston 27-21.

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If Watson is good to go, I'll take Texans to win and cover.  If he's limited, I'll take the Bills to win outright.

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Are we getting Jekyl Watson or Hyde Watson?  Man I had high hopes for Houston this year but their inconsistency just scares the crap out of me. I'm taking the Bills and the points. 

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Close one, tough to pick either side, so give me the points.

Without the spread, I think Houston wins by a hair, but this game goes on the bottom of my confidence pool.

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Bills + points all day long....good enough to cover and win this game outright.  Defense in the playoffs with above avg offense.  That is if JA can hang onto the ball

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9 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Close one, tough to pick either side, so give me the points.

Without the spread, I think Houston wins by a hair, but this game goes on the bottom of my confidence pool.

Exactly 

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I think the Texans are a more talented team than the Bills, but McDermott is a much better coach than O'Brien. I would like if Buffalo had beaten anybody good this season, there best win is probably over Dallas, but they match up pretty well against Houston on both sides of the ball.

I don't see either team's running game having much success, so I think it'll come down to which pass defense steps up, and I'm more inclined to believe in Buffalo, as long as they don't foolishly try to match up White v. Hopkins 1-1 the whole game, as Hopkins will win that matchup. 

Ultimately, the Bills pass rush should give Watson some fits, and the Bills offense should do just enough(like Beasley a lot this week) to win.

Bills win 21-16

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Bills played the fourth easiest schedule and beat nobody this year.  They have that Jaguars vibe from a few years ago.

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I’m on the bills plus points as well, but I probably won’t bet it. The bills are a little bit Jekyll and Hyde on offense, and the Texans look pretty shaking on defense, but can put up a 50 burger any given Sunday.

so while I voted for the bills, I probably won’t touch this game.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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15 minutes ago, zeeshan2 said:

Bills win this and I am a Texans fan; I just don't know what team we will get on Saturday

That’s exactly why I won’t bet it. 

HOU has been ridiculously up & down, getting shut down on offense by mediocre defenses and then blowing up randomly. 

might be a product of the OL, or play calling or injury.  but they’re way too volatile for me to wager on.  

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Buffalo probably wins, but I'll definitely take the 3.5

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Can't figure this one out.  Texans are 1-4 in the playoffs since 2015, with 3 of those at home.  That shouldn't necessarily play into picking a team, but subconsciously it's hard to shake the perception of Houston choking in the postseason.  And numerous other posters have mentioned,  Bills lack of quality opponents this year doesn't build confidence.  Gun to my head today, I'll take the points.

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Texans are so up and down that I don’t know what to make of my favorite team. Since I think it’ll be close, that means the Texans will surely score a ton and blow things open. 

Btw, if that happens it guarantees they’d find a way to score under 10 the following week and get blown out by KC/Baltimore. 

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Bills are a junk yard dog

This will be the ugliest game of wild card weekend but maybe the most entertaining

When the dust settles I like

Bills by 2

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Fuller’s status will be huge. White will likely be matched against Hopkins for the most part and will likely limit the damage done there. Wallace got dinged up this last week and may not be 100%, so if Fuller is at 100% he could be very dangerous.

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I have to take the points here. Bills are really scrappy. It will be very close. Either team can win and it will come down to the end.

 

Texans 24

Bills 23

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It’s really bizarre as a Bills fan to not only see other fans picking the Bills to cover or win a playoff game outright, but seeing the Vegas line move in Buffalo’s favor fairly heavily early on. Definitely something new for Bills fans.

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The hook is huge here.  I can't see HOU stopping BUF on the ground.   So I will take the team with the better D and better run game.

BUF 24-21 in a close game.

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One thing I am worried about as a Bills fan is their LBs. A lot of attention gets paid to Allen and how he will handle big games. 

Not much is said about their MLB, Edmonds, who is also in his second year and younger than Allen, only 21. 

The LB Corp had a real bad game against the Pats and let NE run all over them, with several long scoring drives. A lot of times Edmunds was out of position. 

The Bills pass D is stout, but I could see them struggling against the run if their LBs play like they did against NE. 

As a homer I took the Bills, but I can see this being an issue for them.  

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Tough one to pick - I keep thinking Buffalo and then I look at what Houston did at home vs the Patriots. But come playoff time, I guess I'll still go with what I perceive to be the only excellent unit in this game - the Bills D. I like their front 7 to get enough done vs the Texans run game and I like their secondary and pass rush vs the Houston passing game. I feel like Houston's D has struggled vs running QBs and vs slot WRs - so look for Cole Beasley to have a good day.

Like most folks, I see this as tight and so will take the points. I'll go Buffalo 20-17

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Early reports today are that Will Fuller will not play today. That’s a huge blow to Houston’s offense if it’s true. They are way more efficient with him than without him as he provides their best vertical threat to stretch the field. The Bills don’t give up many big passing plays anyway, but without Fuller the Texans will likely have to depend much more on long sustained drives versus explosive plays. Long sustained drives are more difficult to come by and get points off of Watson tends to look more for the big plays than the dink and dunk stuff.

For the most part, Buffalo’s strengths on defense matchup really well against what Houston does on offense and what Buffalo does on offense matches up pretty well with what Houston does on defense. 

The biggest wildcard that could blowup Buffalo is Watt. He will be matched up against Cody Ford and Ford has struggle badly at times. If Watt is 100% and has one of his takeover games, the Bills could really struggle.

At the end, I think it comes down to what I’ve heard referred to as “toxic differential”. If the Bills can give up fewer turnovers+big plays than the Texans, I think they win. With each team’s strengths and weaknesses, I think there’s a pretty gold chance of that happening. The Texans have some elite players (Watson, Hopkins, Watt) that can go out and make plays that can win games, but overall this matchup is about as good of one as the Bills could have hoped for. 
 

As a Bills fan, what really feels good is seeing a Buffalo team that has developed a lot of young guys, that plays together as a team, that seem to have a great overall plan for the organization from the front office through the coaching staff, and who have the 4th most cap space in the league next year (with plenty in future years right now as well). Today’s game doesn’t feel like the “we’re just happy to be here” of two years ago. I believe the Bills have a good chance of winning, but if they don’t, I don’t have fear that it will be a long time before they are back to the playoffs. Yeah, “easy schedule”, “didn’t beat anyone”, blah blah blah. But the Bills are being built well and are heading in the right direction. Ultimately Josh Allen’s development or lack of is key for the next several years, but the organization as a whole has things moving in a direction that should at least keep the Bills competitive.

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John Brown is just a deep threat and well he's sick and well he's not that good and...I've been so wrong on him all year. He's a player, no doubt.

That said, the stars are on the Texans. I love love love breaking down games and rooting elsewhere and hoping stars get shut down by team defenses but these games are usually where stars write something in the history books. Watson is a gem, Hopkins is too and Watts' return just points out that somehow some way this game will wind up being a huge play from Watson to Hopkins.

The Titans held Hopkins to 28 yards through three quarters and then he had nearly 100 in the fourth. The Bills are lucky Fuller is out, but Stills is still "nothing" and then wow he's fast as he cruises past a S for a deep catch. Hopkins' pretty arm will catch the Bills sleeping at some point and that could be it for them. I bet it's like that Titans game where it looks like they've got it under control through 3 Qs. As such, I think the Bills have to find a way to get a big lead. Don't get a lead and run their back a ton to waste time, but get way out in front of them. 

When I watch the Bills, Kroft does nothing and I wonder if he's playing. I really liked him in Cincy. I have noticed he pops up now and again on the stat sheet but he's been curiously underused this year. The Texans probably double Brown and they're bad against TEs when they do that. I remember Clay having some good games in BUF and...if they could just dust off the playbook, they could take advantage of a weakness there and have a real good shot. 

Mercilus is excellent and Cunningham is the tackling machine everyone knew he'd be when he was drafted. If they run right into Zach or Allen takes too long so Whitney gets a sack....the Bills just can't be stupid against this D. Teams are, it happens. "We have to establish the run" so they run right into Cunningham over n over. They're beatable if the Bills simply take what's given and don't overthink things. 

 

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This looks like a fg difference kind of game, so I'll take Buffalo to cover.

Straight up is tougher. As a Jets fan (living in Houston), I have reasons to dislike both teams, but I don't. I actually admire the job Buffalo has done and I really like their coaching staff.  On one hand, Buffalo has no playoff experience, so that's a negative and probably a big one for a young QB on the road. On the other hand, the Texans have a negative playoff experience. Hmm.  The Bills always seem to put up a strong effort. The Texans are a bit more inconsistent, but have a higher upside. This is the game I feel least confident about, but I'll give the home team the edge in a tight one. The Bills have a good future though.

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15 minutes ago, Bri said:

John Brown is just a deep threat and well he's sick and well he's not that good and...I've been so wrong on him all year. He's a player, no doubt.

That said, the stars are on the Texans. I love love love breaking down games and rooting elsewhere and hoping stars get shut down by team defenses but these games are usually where stars write something in the history books. Watson is a gem, Hopkins is too and Watts' return just points out that somehow some way this game will wind up being a huge play from Watson to Hopkins.

 

 

Hopkins is probably a top 3 WR in the NFL and the Texans do a great job of moving him around to try to get good matchups, but the Bills simply don’t give up big passing plays. They have the best safety duo in the league (IMO) and Tre White lead the league in INTs while not giving up a TD all year. They have consistently made QBs look bad this year. If the Texans and Watson can find it within themselves to throw a lot of shorter passes and RB screens, they should be ok. If they are looking to win on big chunk plays, I think they could struggle. 
 

The biggest ways for Hopkins to have success would be:

1) Move Hopkins around and get him matched up against the nickel corner or Kevin Johnson

2) Throw shorter slants and comebacks

3) Hope that when matched up against White they can get some holding or PI calls (White can be a bit handsy and refs seem to call him pretty tight at times)

For the Bills, with Fuller looking like he’s out, I would either shadow Hopkins with White or plan on doubling him with some sort of bracket coverage whenever someone else is on him. I don’t think the Texans can win without a good game from Hopkins, so I would do what I could to erase him if I were Leslie Frazier.

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I’m rooting for Buffalo but I’m thinking Houston will win this one. I think Watson vs Allen and the home field advantage will be difference. Hope I’m wrong; while I’m not a Bills fan per se, I live outside Buffalo and love feeling the excitement in the air. Plus, it really appears to me that Buffalo is finally building something the right way. I thought hiring Ryan was the worst move at the time.

Fuller being unlikely to play helps but Stills is more than competent. I heard an ESPN segment this morning that said 11/16 Bills opponents ranked 21st or below on offense this year, the suggestion being that their defensive stats were “padded”, at least somewhat. Also heard a segment on local radio the other day with an interview with Tradavius White, who said he won’t be shadowing Hopkins. Will be interesting to see how that impacts things, how Kevin Johnson plays, etc.

Hope I’m wrong, hope Buffalo D gets some game changing plays, I just don’t think Allen is there yet. I could easily see some devastating mistakes from him. 

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27 minutes ago, Ranethe said:

I heard an ESPN segment this morning that said 11/16 Bills opponents ranked 21st or below on offense this year, the suggestion being that their defensive stats were “padded”, at least somewhat.

This is somewhat fair as their overall competition was pretty low. But they did play against the top 2 offenses and held Dallas to just a touch under their 431 ypg average (426) although a large chunk of that was garbage time, and Baltimore to 157 yards under their 408 ypg average.

Overall they played 6 games against top 15 offenses. In 4 out of the 6 they held the opponent to under their season average by an average of 101 yards.

Against the Eagles they gave up 10 yards more than Philly’s season average in a monsoon game where Philly ran the ball down their throats and their worst one was when they gave up 60 yards more than their season average in their second game against the Patriots when Tom Brady had a vintage game dinking and dunking and the Pats killed them in the RB screen game.

The thing the Bills defense struggled with the most throughout the season was when teams did a great job involving their RBs either in the run game or in the screen game.

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So roughly 70% of the Shark Pool is taking Buffalo...WOW!!!

60/40 in favor of Houston right now where the money is going in Vegas as we speak...hmmmm. 

I don't feel like Buffalo has the offense to win in the playoffs but I have NOTHNG against them and commend them for the season they have had thus far. I know they are 6-2 on the road this year, Houston has not held home court all that well, going 5-3. I just feel like DeShaun Watson will prevail and Houston wins this game today. 

Over Under moved from 39.5 to 43.5

Houston 24

Buffalo 20

Lay the points IMO today for Game 1. 

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On 12/30/2019 at 2:23 PM, tjnc09 said:

Bills played the fourth easiest schedule and beat nobody this year.  They have that Jaguars vibe from a few years ago.

That would include a run to the AFCC, are you saying they win today and possibly next week?

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Josh Allen hasn't unleashed his legs yet this year like he did a few games last season.... today he's going to look like Lamar Jackson's clone 

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If I gambled (and I don't) I'd take the Bills and the points.

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On 12/30/2019 at 3:11 PM, IvanKaramazov said:

Buffalo 41

Houston 38

 

  Hide contents

I don't care that it's technically not the same franchise.

 

Like the over but not by that much.

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5 hours ago, Ranethe said:

I’m rooting for Buffalo but I’m thinking Houston will win this one. I think Watson vs Allen and the home field advantage will be difference. Hope I’m wrong; while I’m not a Bills fan per se, I live outside Buffalo and love feeling the excitement in the air. Plus, it really appears to me that Buffalo is finally building something the right way. I thought hiring Ryan was the worst move at the time.

Fuller being unlikely to play helps but Stills is more than competent. I heard an ESPN segment this morning that said 11/16 Bills opponents ranked 21st or below on offense this year, the suggestion being that their defensive stats were “padded”, at least somewhat. Also heard a segment on local radio the other day with an interview with Tradavius White, who said he won’t be shadowing Hopkins. Will be interesting to see how that impacts things, how Kevin Johnson plays, etc.

Hope I’m wrong, hope Buffalo D gets some game changing plays, I just don’t think Allen is there yet. I could easily see some devastating mistakes from him. 

Buffalo playing great. Would be glad to be wrong on this prediction. Thinking of becoming a temp Bills fan until Jerry Jones is no longer involved with the Cowboys 😀🤔

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Pretty good prediction if I do say so....

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