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Peyton Manning or Christian McCaffrey?

Peyton Manning or Christian McCaffrey?  

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26 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

We talking the real NFL or fantasy?

Manning was a great fantasy QB, which (in a start 1 QB league with PPR) translates to being a very good FF player to own.  Not elite.  A QB cant be an elite fantasy player unless they score so far ahead of the competition to the point we have never seen before.  

QB points are easier to generate.  

Again as some others have said, a lot of this is league specifics dependent.   If you feel very strongly about manning over CMC what league specs are you using?

real or fantasy.  Real is obvious, but in fantasy I'll take 17 years of Manning stats over 8 or 9 from McCaffrey.  The average NFL life for RBs is around 4 years I believe. 

ETA:  I was wrong, it isn't 4 years, it's 3.3.

Edited by JohnnyU

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1 hour ago, SayWhat? said:

I actually think it may have been a one finger season, which you’re casually discounting.  Has 471 points ever been eclipsed in a ppr league?

Tomlinson was the guy I checked.  He had 474 when he ripped off 2,323 total yards and 31 TDs. So I guess the answer is “yes.”  Priest Holmes best looked to be 442.  Who am I missing?  Regardless, I’m not sure you’re fully aware or acknowledging of just how dominant a season McCaffrey just had.  

Your not missing anyone.  LT had another season in the 440 range as did one other RB.  

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Best PPR fantasy season by any player ever?  Guess who?

- It's not 2019 Jackson with his 36 passing TD's and best ever 1200 yards rushing by a QB

- It's not 2019 CMC with his 1000/1000 to go along with the most catches ever by a RB (116)

- It's not 2018 Mahomes with his 5K passing yards and 50 TD's

- It's not 2007 Brady with his 50 TD's

- It's not 2006 Tomlinson with his 2300 total yards and 31 TD's

I think it's safe to say the most fantasy points ever would be a once in a lifetime season, right?  And it was accomplished by 37 year old guy that most of us could beat in a foot race.

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The question cannot be answered consistently, because it depends on too many variables.

For example, I play in 2 dynasty leagues:

  1. The first has 14 teams, scoring includes 1 PPR and 4 point passing TDs, and starting lineup supports 1 QB only, but 2 RBs plus 2 flex players which can be RBs. In this format, QBs are devalued and elite RBs are gold. I would take McCaffrey in this league.
  2. The other has 10 teams, scoring includes 0 PPR but 0.5 points per rushing/receiving first down and 6 point passing TDs, and starting lineup is super flex and includes 2 RBs and 1 additional flex (besides the super flex position) which can be RB. In this format, QBs are gold, and elite RBs who catch a lot of passes are devalued somewhat compared to many league. I would take Peyton in this league, no question.
Edited by Just Win Baby

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Huge CMac fan here, but given the original question, I take Manning and lock in the points.  If you ask this question in there years after CMC puts up 3 more 400 pt seasons, I'll consider CMC.

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I’m stunned at the results of this.  CMAC all day.  It’s much easier to find a QB to put up numbers comparable to Manning vs a RB as CMAC.  I don’t see anything to indicate CMACs not a top 5 RB for the next few years.  Obviously you can’t predict injuries but I’ll still go CMAC.

besides even if CMAC suffers a career ender you suck for a year or two and get a good young RB to replace him.  In a vacuum maybe Manning but it the real world you’d get CMAC 8 years let’s say plus 9 years of another RB.  It’s not total points of Manning vs total points of CMAC

Edited by Pipes

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21 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

real or fantasy.  Real is obvious, but in fantasy I'll take 17 years of Manning stats over 8 or 9 from McCaffrey.  The average NFL life for RBs is around 4 years I believe. 

ETA:  I was wrong, it isn't 4 years, it's 3.3.

Average life for a RB is a pretty silly stat.  Most of the guys didnt retire.  They sucked and everyone realized there was no point in signing them

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21 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Best PPR fantasy season by any player ever?  Guess who?

- It's not 2019 Jackson with his 36 passing TD's and best ever 1200 yards rushing by a QB

- It's not 2019 CMC with his 1000/1000 to go along with the most catches ever by a RB (116)

- It's not 2018 Mahomes with his 5K passing yards and 50 TD's

- It's not 2007 Brady with his 50 TD's

- It's not 2006 Tomlinson with his 2300 total yards and 31 TD's

I think it's safe to say the most fantasy points ever would be a once in a lifetime season, right?  And it was accomplished by 37 year old guy that most of us could beat in a foot race.

Keep in mind a 500 point season for a QB is about the equivalent of a 350-400 point season for a RB.  

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This is kind of a silly thread. It's like comparing fresh apples to old oranges.

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1 minute ago, BassNBrew said:

Huge CMac fan here, but given the original question, I take Manning and lock in the points.  If you ask this question in there years after CMC puts up 3 more 400 pt seasons, I'll consider CMC.

This is the right answer.  We already know Manning put up 15 straight seasons as a top 6 QB, with 13 of those in the top 4.  The only thing we know about CMC is he has finished RB9, RB1, RB1 in his first 3 years.  Is it a good start?  No, it's a phenomenal start.  What worries me is 403 touches last year.  The odds are against CMC at this point.  Only 1 RB in the last 20 years has finished top 4 more than once in his career after a 400-touch season, and that guy was an inch shorter and 10 lbs heavier.

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For those saying QB's are a dime a dozen, I could say the same for RB's.  In the past 5 seasons, there have been 23 different RB's in the top 6.  In the same span, only 19 QB's have been top 6.

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

Top 5 for RB for 2-3 years.  Maybe top 10 for a few years after that.

How many RBs in the last 25 years or so would you say have been a top-5 PPR RB for 5 years?  According to my numbers there have been two, Tomlinson and Faulk.  Maybe McCaffrey's career will end up like Tomlinson's, in which case I'd obviously take McCaffrey over Manning without a second thought.  But we don't know that yet.  McCaffrey's career may also end up like the dozens of other RBs who briefly peaked and just as quickly fell off.  That's why it's an absurd comparison.  Has nothing to do with devaluing how good he was this year. 

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13 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Only 1 RB in the last 20 years has finished top 4 more than once in his career after a 400-touch season

I have some issues with this claim:

  1. It is rare for a RB to have 400 touches in a season, so we are necessarily dealing with a small sample size, and thus it may not be particularly predictive going forward. This is even more true in recent years, since RBs with very high carry numbers (e.g., 320+) have become pretty uncommon.
  2. I assume you are not including postseason touches, which may change the results.
  3. A hard cutoff like 400 may just miss some examples that disprove the claim.
  4. Things change over time. It is indisputable that the fitness levels, training, diet/nutrition, and medical care for RBs is more advanced now than at any time in NFL history, and that could in theory mitigate the effects of high workload in a manner that wouldn't be shown by examples from the past.

Take Tomlinson for example. Here were his touches, including postseason touches, in the first 8 seasons of his career:

  • 2001 - 398 - RB7
  • 2002 - 451 - RB3
  • 2003 - 413 - RB3
  • 2004 - 427 - RB3
  • 2005 - 390 - RB3
  • 2006 - 429 - RB1
  • 2007 - 410 - RB1
  • 2008 - 349 - RB7

Those rankings are all non-PPR, not sure where to find PPR final rankings for those seasons. Should Tomlinson's 398 and 390 touch seasons really be viewed as not relevant to this subject? I think they are relevant. If we shift the cutoff to 390, Tomlinson followed a 390+ touch season with a top 3 finish 6 seasons in a row.

And don't we view Tomlinson as a good comp for McCaffrey given size, playing style, skillset, etc.?

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

Top 5 for RB for 2-3 years.  Maybe top 10 for a few years after that.

Going by your statement, that would make him top 10 for 5 more years, right?  Do you know many RB's in the history of the NFL have ever amassed five top 10 seasons after touching it 400 times in a season, whether those 5 seasons were consecutive or not?

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44 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Going by your statement, that would make him top 10 for 5 more years, right?  Do you know many RB's in the history of the NFL have ever amassed five top 10 seasons after touching it 400 times in a season, whether those 5 seasons were consecutive or not?

Not sure why the number 400 is relevant considering that sample size is tiny

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8 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I have some issues with this claim:

  1. It is rare for a RB to have 400 touches in a season, so we are necessarily dealing with a small sample size, and thus it may not be particularly predictive going forward. This is even more true in recent years, since RBs with very high carry numbers (e.g., 320+) have become pretty uncommon.
  2. I assume you are not including postseason touches, which may change the results.
  3. A hard cutoff like 400 may just miss some examples that disprove the claim.
  4. Things change over time. It is indisputable that the fitness levels, training, diet/nutrition, and medical care for RBs is more advanced now than at any time in NFL history, and that could in theory mitigate the effects of high workload in a manner that wouldn't be shown by examples from the past.

Take Tomlinson for example. Here were his touches, including postseason touches, in the first 8 seasons of his career:

  • 2001 - 398 - RB7
  • 2002 - 451 - RB3
  • 2003 - 413 - RB3
  • 2004 - 427 - RB3
  • 2005 - 390 - RB3
  • 2006 - 429 - RB1
  • 2007 - 410 - RB1
  • 2008 - 349 - RB7

Those rankings are all non-PPR, not sure where to find PPR final rankings for those seasons. Should Tomlinson's 398 and 390 touch seasons really be viewed as not relevant to this subject? I think they are relevant. If we shift the cutoff to 390, Tomlinson followed a 390+ touch season with a top 3 finish 6 seasons in a row.

And don't we view Tomlinson as a good comp for McCaffrey given size, playing style, skillset, etc.?

It's funny that you chose Tomlinson, because he is the RB I was referring to.  As for size, LT is not a good comp.  LT was an inch shorter, but 10-15 lbs heavier, depending on where you get the data.  While their skillsets are similar, the way their teams used them is not.  LT's catches account for only 16% of his touches, while CMC sits at 33%.  That actually bodes well for CMC's longevity.  But after just 3 seasons, are we really trying to compare CMC to one of the best RB's in NFL history?  Perhaps we can have a sculptor get an early start on his bust for the Hall?

  

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7 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Not sure why the number 400 is relevant considering that sample size is tiny

A sample size can be tiny but still very relevant.  And the fact that I used 400 means CMC is in good company.  He has become the 14th RB to accomplish it this century.  Still, that doesn't change the fact that Tomlinson is the only one on the list to have more than 1 top 4 finish after a 400-touch season, and the remaining 13 are household names.

While stat checking, I came across the Benjamin Button of RB's.  We all know him, but check out how his stats look like they should be in reverse.  I've purposely been avoiding listing him, because he is devastating to my case.  He is probably the best comp I can think of for CMC in terms of size, usage, skillset, etc.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarbTi00.htm

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In a start 1 QB PPR league, who are some retired RBs who's value you would put on par with Manning for their fantasy careers?

 

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6 hours ago, TheWinz said:

It's funny that you chose Tomlinson, because he is the RB I was referring to.  As for size, LT is not a good comp.  LT was an inch shorter, but 10-15 lbs heavier, depending on where you get the data.  While their skillsets are similar, the way their teams used them is not.  LT's catches account for only 16% of his touches, while CMC sits at 33%.  That actually bodes well for CMC's longevity.  But after just 3 seasons, are we really trying to compare CMC to one of the best RB's in NFL history?  Perhaps we can have a sculptor get an early start on his bust for the Hall?

  

No, "we" are not projecting that McCaffrey will have a career that compares favorably to Tomlinson, which is what you imply with your silly sculptor comment.

And, yes, LT's catches accounted for a lesser percentage of his touches, but NFL RB usage has changed quite a bit since Tomlinson's rookie season in 2001. If he entered the league today, he would probably have fewer carries and more targets.

Let's focus your point. Are you predicting that McCaffrey will not be a top 5 RB in 2020? How many top 5 seasons do you predict in his remaining career? How many top 10? Since you are claiming the 400 touch threshold is predictive/meaningful, let's see some predictions.

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5 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

No, "we" are not projecting that McCaffrey will have a career that compares favorably to Tomlinson, which is what you imply with your silly sculptor comment.  You found my sculptor comment silly?  Come on, I thought it was funny.

And, yes, LT's catches accounted for a lesser percentage of his touches, but NFL RB usage has changed quite a bit since Tomlinson's rookie season in 2001. If he entered the league today, he would probably have fewer carries and more targets.  I agree.  LT had more 300 carry seasons than all other RB's in the past 5 years combined.

Let's focus your point. Are you predicting that McCaffrey will not be a top 5 RB in 2020? How many top 5 seasons do you predict in his remaining career? How many top 10? Since you are claiming the 400 touch threshold is predictive/meaningful, let's see some predictions.  Sure, I will throw out some numbers, but please do the same.  CMC will have 1 more season in the top half of RB1's (1 thru 6), 2 more in the back half of RB1's (7 thru 12), and perhaps 1 more as a RB2 (13 thru 24).

 

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4 minutes ago, GROOT said:

Better poll......Marshall Fauk or Christian McCaffrey

Faulk by far.  We already know he finished as RB1 three times, and had other seasons as RB3, RB4, RB6, and RB7, to go along with 3 more as a RB2.  To predict CMC for 7 great fantasy seasons and 3 more useful ones in this day and age is crazy to me.

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2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

In a start 1 QB PPR league, who are some retired RBs who's value you would put on par with Manning for their fantasy careers?

Tony Dorsett - RB3, RB3, RB6, RB7, RB8, RB9, RB9, RB9, RB14, RB26, RB30, RB44

Peyton Manning - QB1, QB1, QB2, QB2, QB2, QB3, QB3, QB3, QB3, QB4, QB4, QB4, QB4, QB5, QB6, QB8, QB32

It's kind of fun trying to compare, and I am sure we all have different opinions.  I think Dorsett is a decent comp.  It's clear Manning's finishes were higher, but we all know QB1 and RB1 are not even remotely close to equal.

 

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Peyton Manning had 1070 career VBD.

Here are the RBs since 1988 with the most ppr VBD through 3 seasons (using a slightly different VBD formula than before, which is based on ppg):

586    LaDainian Tomlinson    (1634 career VBD)
561    Christian McCaffrey    (561 and counting for his career)
516    Edgerrin James    (1075 career VBD)
485    Barry Sanders    (1329 career VBD)
447    Emmitt Smith    (1578 career VBD)
439    Terrell Davis    (690 career VBD)
429    Ezekiel Elliott    (568 and counting for his career)
426    Alvin Kamara    (426 and counting for his career)
402    Chris Johnson    (594 career VBD)
398    Arian Foster    (738 career VBD)

CMC is second on this list, and we can see that:

In the top 5 on this list, 4 guys have finished their careers and all 4 of them had more career VBD than Manning.

In the full top 10 list, 7 guys have finished their careers and they averaged 1091 career VBD, which is more than Manning had. And through 3 years, McCaffrey has 1.2x as much VBD as what those guys had at that point.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

Peyton Manning had 1070 career VBD.

Here are the RBs since 1988 with the most ppr VBD through 3 seasons (using a slightly different VBD formula than before, which is based on ppg):

586    LaDainian Tomlinson    (1634 career VBD)
561    Christian McCaffrey    (561 and counting for his career)
516    Edgerrin James    (1075 career VBD)
485    Barry Sanders    (1329 career VBD)
447    Emmitt Smith    (1578 career VBD)
439    Terrell Davis    (690 career VBD)
429    Ezekiel Elliott    (568 and counting for his career)
426    Alvin Kamara    (426 and counting for his career)
402    Chris Johnson    (594 career VBD)
398    Arian Foster    (738 career VBD)

CMC is second on this list, and we can see that:

In the top 5 on this list, 4 guys have finished their careers and all 4 of them had more career VBD than Manning.

In the full top 10 list, 7 guys have finished their careers and they averaged 1091 career VBD, which is more than Manning had. And through 3 years, McCaffrey has 1.2x as much VBD as what those guys had at that point.

Very informative, well done.  FTR, I would take LT, Barry, and Emmitt over Manning for sure, but not Edge.  I would also take Payton, Faulk, Dickerson, and a few others.  Which website did you use for the VBD numbers?

A quick question about VBD - is there a max score, like 158.3 for QB rating?

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36 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Very informative, well done.  FTR, I would take LT, Barry, and Emmitt over Manning for sure, but not Edge.  I would also take Payton, Faulk, Dickerson, and a few others.  Which website did you use for the VBD numbers?

A quick question about VBD - is there a max score, like 158.3 for QB rating?

Manning's VBD is from Pro Football Reference. I calculated the RB VBD numbers myself.

There is no max score. VBD is just the player's fantasy points minus some baseline level of fantasy points (which depends on the position and the season), where the baseline accounts for the fact that if you didn't have that player then you would start someone else rather than taking a zero. There is no cap on how many fantasy points a player can score, so there is no cap on VBD.

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5 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Very informative, well done.  FTR, I would take LT, Barry, and Emmitt over Manning for sure, but not Edge.  I would also take Payton, Faulk, Dickerson, and a few others.  Which website did you use for the VBD numbers?

A quick question about VBD - is there a max score, like 158.3 for QB rating?

Yes, the “qb rating” metric caps at 158.3.

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7 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Very informative, well done.  FTR, I would take LT, Barry, and Emmitt over Manning for sure, but not Edge.  I would also take Payton, Faulk, Dickerson, and a few others.  Which website did you use for the VBD numbers?

A quick question about VBD - is there a max score, like 158.3 for QB rating?

Wow, I mean, are you sure you would take those guys over manning???  😱

 

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2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Wow, I mean, are you sure you would take those guys over manning???  😱

 

Haha.  Of course they are no brainers, but I did say I'd prefer Manning over Edge, even though Edge has a higher VBD career.  Edge had 6 finishes as a RB1, but for me, It's not as close as VBD suggests.

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6 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Haha.  Of course they are no brainers, but I did say I'd prefer Manning over Edge, even though Edge has a higher VBD career.  Edge had 6 finishes as a RB1, but for me, It's not as close as VBD suggests.

Then I think you are vastly overating the importance of the QB.  By a LOT

Edited by ghostguy123

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9 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Then I think you are vastly overating the importance of the QB.  By a LOT

I may be, but I draft like a normal guy.  In fact, I have been the last to take a QB in my redraft league 3 straight years.  My biggest fault is underrating the importance of the WR.

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