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Iceman03

Iceman's 2020 Draft Tiers (Post Draft - Complete)

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Going to use this thread as my home base for personal rankings, notes, and process discussion. I believe ZWK has the best process on the board and it's hard to articulate my own as I don't assign value to metrics and instead looks for how many blocks a guy checks. That can make it hard to differentiate whether one metric is more important than the other. I also have trouble believing there is a good analytical way to view QB's when you have Daniel Jones be a modest rookie success and Haskins and Mariota playing the way they are. 

For RB's this early in the process I place emphasis on rushing market share, breakout age, receiving share, age and BMI. WR's I focus on breakout age, receiving market share, BMI (also looking for weight >210) and YPR. TE's I'm looking at weight (>250), YPR, receiving market share and breakout age. QB's I will be focused more on YPA, completion %, QBR and overall athleticism but I will also be attempting to take in more of the trusted film scouts and PFF's draft guide. 

Right now my lists are rather lengthy, so I will be breaking it up into a few posts by position. I'm more than willing to take opinions and questions. Please keep in mind I can not get a full picture until athletic testing is complete. I have a vague idea on some guys based on MPH which I will list in a post after the rankings. 

Post Combine QB

Post Combine RB (2/29)

Post Combine WR (2/28)

Post Combine TE (2/28)

Top 24 1/22

Top 36 2/29

Final Post Draft

Edited by Iceman03
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Running Backs

Tier 1

Jonathan Taylor  Wisconsin
Ke'Shawn Vaughn Vanderbilt
JK Dobbins tOSU
Cam Akers  Florida St.
D'Andre Swift  Georgia

Tier 2 

AJ Dillon Boston College
Eno Benjamin  Arizona St.
Zack Moss Utah
Michael Warren Cincinnati
Clyde Edwards-Helaire  LSU
Salvon Ahmed  Washington

Tier 3

James Robinson  Illlinois St.
Pete Guerriero  Monmouth
Tra Minter South Alabama
Darryton Evans Appalachian St.
Tra Barnett Georgia State
Cameron Scarlett Stanford
Ben Lemay Charlotte
Jonathan Ward Central Michigan
Joshua Kelley UCLA
Rodney Smith Minnesota

Tier 4

Anthony McFarland Maryland
LeVante Bellamy Western Michigan
Art Pierce Oregon St.
Gerold Bright (fmr WR) Utah St.
Frankie Hickson Liberty
Darius Anderson TCU
Javon Leake Maryland
JJ Taylor Arizona
Lamical Perine Florida
Deejay Dallas Miami (FL)
Reggie Corbin Illinois

These are not in a "ranked" sequence. Just where I have players lumped right now.

Edited by Iceman03
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Wide Recievers

Tier 1

Isaiah Hodgins    Oregon St.
Antonio Gandy-Golden    Liberty
Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
Ceedee Lamb    OU
Bryan Edwards    South Carolina
Gabriel Davis    UCF
Michael Pittman Jr.    USC
Cody White    Michigan St.
Denzel Mims    Baylor
Tee Higgins    Clemson
Laviska Shenault    Colorado
Justin Jefferson    LSU
Jalen Reagor    TCU
Jerry Jeudy    Alabama

Tier 2

Kalija Lipscomb   Vanderbilt

Collin Johnson    Texas
Jauan Jennings    Tennessee
KJ Hamler    Penn St.
Quez Watkins    Southern Mississippi
James Proche    SMU
Marquez Callaway    Tennessee
Henry Ruggs    Alabama
Donavan Peoples-Jones    Michigan

Tier 3

Omar Bayless    Arkansas St.
Brandon Aiyuk    Arizona St.
Devin Duvernay    Texas
Trishton Jackson    Syracuse
Lucky Jackson    Western Kentucky
Quintez Cephus    Wisconsin
Chase Claypool    Notre Dame
Josh Imatorbhebhe    Illinois

Tier 4

John Hightower    Boise St
Maurice Ffrench    Pitt
Jojo Ward    Hawaii
Aaron Fuller    Washington
Cedric Byrd    Hawaii
Riley Miller    Ball St
Kirk Merritt    Arkansas St.
KJ Hill    Ohio State
KJ Osborn    Buffalo/Miami (FL)
Scotty Washington    Wake Forest
Nick Westbrook    Indiana
Dezmon Patmon    Washington St.
Juwan Johnson (SO B/O)    Oregon/Penn St.
Malcolm Perry (QB)    Navy
Mason Kinsey    Berry
Benjimin Victor    Ohio State
Aaron Parker    Rhode Island
Isaiah Wright    Temple

Edited by Iceman03
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Tight End

Tier 1

Jacob Breeland Oregon
Cole Kmet Notre Dame
Thad Moss LSU

Tier 2

Devin Asiasi UCLA
Jared Pinkney Vanderbilt
Armani Levias Marshall
Albert Okwuegbunam Missouri
Adam Trautman Dayton
Colby Parkinson Stanford

Tier 3

Noah Togiai Oregon St.
Charlie Taumoepeau Portland St.
Brycen Hopkins Purdue
Stephen Sullivan LSU
Harrison Bryant FAU
Josiah Deguara Cincinnati 
Hunter Bryant Washington

CJ O’Grady Arkansas
 

Edited by Iceman03
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MPH

Jonathan Taylor - 22.4

Ke'Shawn Vaughn - 21.3

JK Dobbins - 19.8

Cam Akers - 22.4

Salvon Ahmed - 22

Bryan Edwards - 22.3

Jerry Jeudy - 22.9

Henry Ruggs 24.3

Brandon Aiyuk 20.9

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Already need to make some corrections... thought I had been careful about the underclassmen. CJ O’Grady should be in the TE tiers and Pat Friermuth is returning unfortunately.

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These are very unique. I am shocked how big the WR1 tier is and I need to learn about Ke'Shawn Vaughn.

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17 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

These are very unique. I am shocked how big the WR1 tier is and I need to learn about Ke'Shawn Vaughn.

I don’t want it to be that large. It’s hard to differentiate without the athletic testing. CeeDee Lamb, Raegor and Jerry Jeudy are a little bit on the smallish side for what I look for but are already known as tremendous athletes. I will also probably take heat for Ruggs at some point. His rank will probably increase as I intend to heavily emphasize draft capital.

ETA: Thanks for pointing this out Lipscomb got listed in the wrong tier. Not that it lowers the overall tier 1 amount all that much.

Edited by Iceman03
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5 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

These are very unique. I am shocked how big the WR1 tier is and I need to learn about Ke'Shawn Vaughn.

Yep

Vaughn is among the most underrated players in this class. Played for a bad team in the SEC, so he had a rough go this year. Could be good. 

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Just now, Iceman03 said:

I don’t want it to be that large. It’s hard to differentiate without the athletic testing. CeeDee Lamb, Raegor and Jerry Jeudy are a little bit on the smallish side for what I look for but are already known as tremendous athletes. I will also probably take heat for Ruggs at some point. His rank will probably increase as I intend to heavily emphasize draft capital.

Tell me about this Vandy RB

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7 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Tell me about this Vandy RB

Well he’s a true senior... which makes him a little older (22). That may make him slip on my board at some point. He’s at the Senior Bowl and I expect him to do well there. His offensive market share was 36.2% in the SEC. That ranked him behind only Jon Taylor draft eligible players in Major D1 conferences. He had a 7.9 YPC as a JR in the SEC and broke out as a freshman at Illinois. He checks all the blocks for me including a good track record as a receiver. Age and draft capital could cost him for me but until we make the combine he’s going to hang in my top tier. As I also listed he hit 21 mph for top speed which is an elite number. I expect him to test extremely well.

ETA: he’s also listed at 218lbs. So while his overall carries look lowish, he certainly is built as more than a satellite back.

Edited by Iceman03
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3 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

Well he’s a true senior... which makes him a little older (22). That may make him slip on my board at some point. He’s at the Senior Bowl and I expect him to do well there. His offensive market share was 36.2% in the SEC. That ranked him behind only Jon Taylor draft eligible players in Major D1 conferences. He had a 7.9 YPC as a JR in the SEC and broke out as a freshman at Illinois. He checks all the blocks for me including a good track record as a receiver. Age and draft capital could cost him for me but until we make the combine he’s going to hang in my top tier. As I also listed he hit 21 mph for top speed which is an elite number. I expect him to test extremely well.

ETA: he’s also listed at 218lbs. So while his overall carries look lowish, he certainly is built as more than a satellite back.

What's his style or key traits? A comp?

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3 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

What's his style or key traits? A comp?

He’s shifty and fast. Not overly powerful. Reminds me a bit of Aaron Jones coming out. People may scoff at that now given Jones past season but it’s taken Jones three years to earn respect in the league. 

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Just now, Iceman03 said:

He’s shifty and fast. Not overly powerful. Reminds me a bit of Aaron Jones coming out. People may scoff at that now given Jones past season but it’s taken Jones three years to earn respect in the league. 

Ok, I can dig that. Jones was a late pick and really his stats this year are likely way inflated with TDs. I am going to pay attention to him now because of your recommendation. I hate that he is a true senior but he was actually a lot better as a junior so that makes me trust him more. 

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28 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

These are very unique. I am shocked how big the WR1 tier is and I need to learn about Ke'Shawn Vaughn.

I've read/heard this is a really good year for WR in the draft.   

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1 minute ago, kodycutter said:

I've read/heard this is a really good year for WR in the draft.   

Me too, but I thought there were 2 or 3 WRs who were significantly ahead of the pack.  

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40 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

I don’t want it to be that large. It’s hard to differentiate without the athletic testing. CeeDee Lamb, Raegor and Jerry Jeudy are a little bit on the smallish side for what I look for but are already known as tremendous athletes. I will also probably take heat for Ruggs at some point. His rank will probably increase as I intend to heavily emphasize draft capital.

ETA: Thanks for pointing this out Lipscomb got listed in the wrong tier. Not that it lowers the overall tier 1 amount all that much.

Second everyone else,  I appreciate this work.  

Edited by kodycutter

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Me too, but I thought there were 2 or 3 WRs who were significantly ahead of the pack.  

I agree.  I haven't seen enough of these guys to form any opinion on a lot of them other than Jeudy/Lamb/Higgins....and Jefferson and I may have caught a game from Shenault.

Excited to see combines on these guys and the rest of them.

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2 minutes ago, kodycutter said:

I agree.  I haven't seen enough of these guys to form any opinion on a lot of them other than Jeudy/Lamb/Higgins....and Jefferson and I may have caught a game from Shenault.

Excited to see combines on these guys and the rest of them.

My totally crap opinion is:

Lamb is incredible and Shenault might end up the best. Jeudy is real good but maybe need a QB who can hit routes on time. He might not have boss level WR1 kind of skills. Higgins is a Marvin Jones outside #2 WR prototype. I am not yet sure what to make of Jefferson. 

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8 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

My totally crap opinion is:

Lamb is incredible and Shenault might end up the best. Jeudy is real good but maybe need a QB who can hit routes on time. He might not have boss level WR1 kind of skills. Higgins is a Marvin Jones outside #2 WR prototype. I am not yet sure what to make of Jefferson. 

Will be fun to watch many of the rookie WRs in 2020.   It's a loaded class and there will be disappointments and surprises.   

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11 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

 I will also probably take heat for Ruggs at some point.

Not from me. Ruggs is a projected miss on all accounts and completely off my draft board 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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10 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

My totally crap opinion is:

Lamb is incredible and Shenault might end up the best. Jeudy is real good but maybe need a QB who can hit routes on time. He might not have boss level WR1 kind of skills. Higgins is a Marvin Jones outside #2 WR prototype. I am not yet sure what to make of Jefferson. 

Shenault is my wr1 today 

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Shenault is my wr1 today 

He didn't look good this year, but that doesn't mean squat going forward.

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3 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

He didn't look good this year, but that doesn't mean squat going forward.

No, he had a down season. His QB was dreadful. 

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11 hours ago, -OZ- said:

Yep

Vaughn is among the most underrated players in this class. Played for a bad team in the SEC, so he had a rough go this year. Could be good. 

http://draftcountdown.com/2020-nfl-draft-rankings/2020-running-back-rankings/

 

Ke’Shawn Vaughn is currently rated as the 10th RB of this draft by Scott Wright NFL Draft Countdown.

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I like the RB tier, but would move Clyde Edwards-Helaire  to tier 1.  Too many WRs in tier 1, most of them won't come close to being tier 1.  I don't like the TEs this year, but I would take Hunter Bryant over all 3 you listed in tier 1.  Next year will be the year for TEs with Kyle Pitts and Brevin Jordan.  I'm fine with your QB tiers, perhaps Herbert belongs in tier 1.

Edited by JohnnyU
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Your tiers are too large. I say that because generally it helps and is a good process to make them smaller.

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

I like him as a 2nd rd rookie pick and feel he could be a real sleeper if he falls to the right team.

According to Scott Wright's NFL Draft Countdown, Ke’Shawn Vaughn is almost as big as Jonathan Taylor and just as fast.

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12 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

Wide Recievers

Tier 1

Cody White    Michigan St.
 

Admittedly I'm an MSU Homer, but he's not getting enough love pre combine. Great size, seems to be a good athlete, broke out as a freshman and accounted for over 30% of MSU's (simply terrible) passing offense last year. Concerns are inconsistent hands and some injury history. 

Edited by jtd13
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2 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

Admittedly I'm an MSU Homer, but he's not getting enough love pre combine. Great size, seems to be a good athlete, broke out as a freshman and accounted for over 30% of MSU's (simply terrible) passing offense last year. Concerns are inconsistent hands and some injury history. 

He and Michigan's Donovan Peoples Jones will be interesting. Both guys have a lot to like but never really reached their full potential in college.

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16 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

He and Michigan's Donovan Peoples Jones will be interesting. Both guys have a lot to like but never really reached their full potential in college.

I would throw Byan Edwards into that pot of players who under performed in college. He never had a thousand yard season in 4 years and a max of 8 TDs in 2018.  Also, I wouldn't include him as a tier 1 WR as in the OP.  He's a 3rd rd rookie pick at best, maybe late 2nd for someone who really believes in him.

Edited by JohnnyU
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12 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

He and Michigan's Donovan Peoples Jones will be interesting. Both guys have a lot to like but never really reached their full potential in college.

Yeah DPJ is another interesting one. I see him getting hype more than White. I think that's mostly residual hype from him bring a 5 start recruit. Both look like they might have prototypical size and athleticism.

On a side note, metro Detroit is pretty well represented in this WR class with those 2, Hamler, and Trishton Jackson. 

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1 hour ago, football fan said:

http://draftcountdown.com/2020-nfl-draft-rankings/2020-running-back-rankings/

 

Ke’Shawn Vaughn is currently rated as the 10th RB of this draft by Scott Wright NFL Draft Countdown.

I'd take him 6th. 

1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

I like him as a 2nd rd rookie pick and feel he could be a real sleeper if he falls to the right team.

agreed. A lot does depend on the team. 

In a dream scenario he'd fall far enough to be a value pick and stay in Nashville. Back up Henry for a few years. 

 

Edited by -OZ-

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4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Shenault is my wr1 today 

I worry about his low YPR some. I know he is a guy the devy community was in love with last year.

3 hours ago, Bri said:

Your tiers are too large. I say that because generally it helps and is a good process to make them smaller.

They have to be too large now. It is not good process to start eliminating guys who meet thresholds for market share, breakout age and size I’m looking for. It will come out in the wash with measurables and draft capital. I will be placing a heavy emphasis on top 100 and forcing myself to drop players down who aren’t within that threshold (Hakeem Butler/Kelvin Harmon effect if you will).

3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I like the RB tier, but would move Clyde Edwards-Helaire  to tier 1.  Too many WRs in tier 1, most of them won't come close to being tier 1.  I don't like the TEs this year, but I would take Hunter Bryant over all 3 you listed in tier 1.  Next year will be the year for TEs with Kyle Pitts and Brevin Jordan.  I'm fine with your QB tiers, perhaps Herbert belongs in tier 1.

Edwards-Helaire is close. Some of those tier two guys could definitely make it into the first tier. In this case only having the one season of production has me holding him down for now.

I like both the Bryant’s. That being said Hunter is estimated at 239lbs right now. That is far too small to be the kind of TE NFL teams will line up inline and the slot. Only Evan Engram really comes to mind for a TE that small. I will be proceeding with caution with him but he is someone that has gotten a lot of buzz that I wonder if I’m too low on (especially given his early production).

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12 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

I worry about his low YPR some. I know he is a guy the devy community was in love with last year.

I think that's perfect for the NFL.I see him as a target hog. He won't be a 50/50 guy but he has potential to be a Cooper Kupp (or the way Cooper Kupp should be used), Edelman, etc...

Edited by Dr. Dan

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think that's perfect for the NFL.I see him as a target hog. He won't be a 50/50 guy but he has potential to be a Cooper Kupp (or the way Cooper Kupp should be used), Edelman, etc...

Those guys were really hard to project. Kupp has some draft capital going for him but was a bit older and a sub athlete. Edelman didn’t do anything for a long time, was an undrafted QB and is 5’10 198. Low YPR only gives me pause because of Zay Jones. It was his one big indicator that he may not be what the rest of his surface level check marks are suggesting.

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30 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

Those guys were really hard to project. Kupp has some draft capital going for him but was a bit older and a sub athlete. Edelman didn’t do anything for a long time, was an undrafted QB and is 5’10 198. Low YPR only gives me pause because of Zay Jones. It was his one big indicator that he may not be what the rest of his surface level check marks are suggesting.

Yeah I just pulled two target hogs out of the sky. I see three wrs who can be like that. Neither are Lamb or Jeudy

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yeah I just pulled two target hogs out of the sky. I see three wrs who can be like that. Neither are Lamb or Jeudy

Only 1 WR since 2009 has posted multiple 1200 yard season at 6’2+ <210lbs... only 2 WR’s to be <26 BMI. 😉

Thing is what do you get by avoiding Marquise Brown or MeCole Hardman in rookie drafts? They get opportunity and make splash plays and then the fantasy community gets all worked up without understanding how size, durability and high end success work hand in hand. You’re getting more now for those two than N’Keal Harry or Andy Isabella.

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2 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

Only 1 WR since 2009 has posted multiple 1200 yard season at 6’2+ <210lbs... only 2 WR’s to be <26 BMI. 😉

Thing is what do you get by avoiding Marquise Brown or MeCole Hardman in rookie drafts? They get opportunity and make splash plays and then the fantasy community gets all worked up without understanding how size, durability and high end success work hand in hand. You’re getting more now for those two than N’Keal Harry or Andy Isabella.

absolutely. that's why I have been a bit sour on these tall skinny guys so far. u till they weigh in, I can only.go by what's online. I just dont see them being those top guys everyone is falling over themselves to have the chance to draft. Good trade down opportunity for me at 1.4 and 1.6 after I take a rb 1.2

Shenault just seems like an AJ Brown clone to me... good route runner, shifty with the ball, good size. I think it'll translate similarly. and chances are good right now that he will land with a pretty good team

Edited by Dr. Dan

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5 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

They have to be too large now. It is not good process to start eliminating guys who meet thresholds for market share, breakout age and size I’m looking for. It will come out in the wash with measurables and draft capital. I will be placing a heavy emphasis on top 100 and forcing myself to drop players down who aren’t within that threshold (Hakeem Butler/Kelvin Harmon effect if you will).

That's a lot of predetermined action and limitations. Essentially you turned them into stepping stones, not tiers. 

Scrap them each time you remake your rankings and make new tiers, each time.

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26 minutes ago, Bri said:

That's a lot of predetermined action and limitations. Essentially you turned them into stepping stones, not tiers. 

Scrap them each time you remake your rankings and make new tiers, each time.

Well if you’re asking me what the point is? What’s the point of anyone doing any sort of rankings at this point? 

People try to draw conclusions way too quickly in the fantasy community. All I’m doing is creating a list based off of incomplete information. The only thing the athletic metrics do is begin to add clarification on who a prospect from a predictive standpoint. Then the draft further solidifies the odds of a players success just based on how early they go as usually that correlates with the amount of opportunity they have to succeed. 🤷‍♂️ 

I have zero doubts this will look a lot different by the time all is said and done but over time I do tend to lean heavier on the production side of the house than the measurable side. 

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Different strokes for different folks. Some like to specify smaller tiers right away. I appreciate Icemans approach. It's similar to my own. I'm not ready to confidently state who my top tier of WRs are. there are a lot of wrs at the top that arent projected misses, so it's difficult to really split them until after the combine. My tier 1 would be large, albeit not as large as Icemans, but still too big for some peoples' taste here. 

 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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6 hours ago, Iceman03 said:
6 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think that's perfect for the NFL.I see him as a target hog. He won't be a 50/50 guy but he has potential to be a Cooper Kupp (or the way Cooper Kupp should be used), Edelman, etc...

Those guys were really hard to project. Kupp has some draft capital going for him but was a bit older and a sub athlete. Edelman didn’t do anything for a long time, was an undrafted QB and is 5’10 198. Low YPR only gives me pause because of Zay Jones. It was his one big indicator that he may not be what the rest of his surface level check marks are suggesting.

I was a pessimist about Jones in 2017, but don't feel the same way about Shenault. My formula likes Shenault's 2018 production a lot more than Zay Jones's production. Three biggest differences in production:

Jones's yards per target was also very low (7.9 YPT in 2016), Shenault's wasn't (9.4 YPT in 2018).

Shenault had 5 rushing TDs in 2018, which is a great sign about his functional athleticism. Jones didn't have any rushing or return TDs.

Shenault has better market share numbers for TDs and big plays. His total number of receiving TDs, 25+ yard receptions, and 40+ yard receptions are similar to Jones's, but when you adjust for the fact that Colorado's passing offense had fewer of these plays than ECU then Shenault's big play production is more impressive.

Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score was similarly pessimistic about Jones, and Matt Harmon's Reception Perception numbers also painted him as an underneath receiver who did his damage against zones. We'll see what FO says about Shenault (unfortunately Harmon lost access to college tape last year so we probably won't get to see what he has to say about Shenault).

Apart from production, Jones was undersized (with a 25.7 BMI) while Shenault has great size.

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9 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I was a pessimist about Jones in 2017, but don't feel the same way about Shenault. My formula likes Shenault's 2018 production a lot more than Zay Jones's production. Three biggest differences in production:

Jones's yards per target was also very low (7.9 YPT in 2016), Shenault's wasn't (9.4 YPT in 2018).

Shenault had 5 rushing TDs in 2018, which is a great sign about his functional athleticism. Jones didn't have any rushing or return TDs.

Shenault has better market share numbers for TDs and big plays. His total number of receiving TDs, 25+ yard receptions, and 40+ yard receptions are similar to Jones's, but when you adjust for the fact that Colorado's passing offense had fewer of these plays than ECU then Shenault's big play production is more impressive.

Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score was similarly pessimistic about Jones, and Matt Harmon's Reception Perception numbers also painted him as an underneath receiver who did his damage against zones. We'll see what FO says about Shenault (unfortunately Harmon lost access to college tape last year so we probably won't get to see what he has to say about Shenault).

Apart from production, Jones was undersized (with a 25.7 BMI) while Shenault has great size.

Good info here, as always. Thanks for your contributions 

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If I had to segregate it down I would do so by size and this is not going to be a popular thought process (I’m guessing as I haven’t even heard people talk about Gandy-Golden)... here is what the outcome would be 

Tier 1

Gandy-Golden 6’4 220 26.8 BMI

Tyler Johnson 6’2 205 26.3 BMI

Bryan Edwards 6’3 215 26.9 BMI

Gabriel Davis 6’3 212 26.5 BMI 

Cody White 6’3 216 27 BMI

Tee Higgins 6’4 216 26.3 BMI

Laviska Shenault 6’2 220 28.2 BMI

Jalen Reagor 5’11 195 27.2 BMI

Michael Pittman Jr. 6’4 220 26.8 BMI

Denzel Mims 6’3 215 26.9 BMI

Tier 2

Isaiah Hodgins 6’4 209 25.4 BMI

Justin Jefferson 6’3 192 24 BMI

Jerry Jeudy 6’1 192 25.3 BMI

CeeDee Lamb 6’2 195 25 BMI

Honestly I don’t see how that helps me much. All it is doing is taking 3 high profile guys out of the top group. All three are projected to be some sort of first rounder right now. So while, based on their size, their ceiling may not be multiple 1200 yd seasons, they will end up with >60% likelihood for 1 or more top 24 season. 

I’m sort of getting into complicated territory here. This is a very productive and young WR group. It’s practically impossible for all these guys to go in the first three rounds but they all produced very young. Many of them are underclassmen and left early for a reason. 

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17 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I was a pessimist about Jones in 2017, but don't feel the same way about Shenault. My formula likes Shenault's 2018 production a lot more than Zay Jones's production. Three biggest differences in production:

Jones's yards per target was also very low (7.9 YPT in 2016), Shenault's wasn't (9.4 YPT in 2018).

Shenault had 5 rushing TDs in 2018, which is a great sign about his functional athleticism. Jones didn't have any rushing or return TDs.

Shenault has better market share numbers for TDs and big plays. His total number of receiving TDs, 25+ yard receptions, and 40+ yard receptions are similar to Jones's, but when you adjust for the fact that Colorado's passing offense had fewer of these plays than ECU then Shenault's big play production is more impressive.

Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score was similarly pessimistic about Jones, and Matt Harmon's Reception Perception numbers also painted him as an underneath receiver who did his damage against zones. We'll see what FO says about Shenault (unfortunately Harmon lost access to college tape last year so we probably won't get to see what he has to say about Shenault).

Apart from production, Jones was undersized (with a 25.7 BMI) while Shenault has great size.

I can't remember who it was, but I saw someone critical of Shenault that all his touches were mostly manufactured for him.  I don't have concern for that as much, when I see the good routes and movement, but it was for this person.  His size is a plus, add in the splash plays like you mentioned and it becomes a 0 to me.  

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