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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (21 Viewers)

Joe Bryant said:
Thank you. I guess it shouldn't surprise me as everything seems this way now but it seems from what I see that NYC has two very different takes. One is it's near disaster. The other is Cuomo is guiding it well and it'll be ok.

Do you have an opinion there on balancing the two? 
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There's only the reality, which is that cases in a very dense city are exploding and they have no quarantine in place.  

 
Nothing like a good old fashion blizzard to keep people from leaving their homes here in Colorado.  :thumbup:

So a question my wife and I were wondering about is, lets say a shelter in place is put in effect, do they still allow people to receive Fedex and Amazon shipments? I mean with all the pharamacies pushing people to go to mail order, this seems like an important question. What about grocery delivery as well? 

 
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A large group of my friends/co-workers (30+) returned this past Saturday from a ski trip in Austria. This is the first year I have not been with them in 5+ years. Based on the state of things I wanted to stay with my family. Took a $ hit because most of the money was already paid and non-refundable. OK.

About half of them are now down with serious flu-like symptoms. A few are in quite bad shape. Most are young and strong but still ...

This got me to thinking that the apres ski bars in all of those Alpine ski resorts probably were prime incubation places. Tightly packed places with bad air circulation. Hundreds of sweaty folks. Far too much booze. This virus was there at the peak of the ski season.  :(

 
Slapdash said:
I'm not local to NYC at all.  Seems like the mayor would like to have shelter-in-place but the governor is preventing it.  The density of that city is a big concern. 
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The local color is, these two have been at odds for years, so if one says white the other almost has to say black.  The difference is, Cuomo is a lifer in politics and seems to know what he's doing and DiBlasio is a conniving opportunist who's got a hell of a lazy streak.  He is unlike any mayor I've seen, he's late to events, he works out for 2 hours a day which is really almost 3 hours after his motorcade travels.

DiBlasio wanted to keep the schools open this time last week and now he wants to shelter in place?  

NYC is going to be very tricky to shelter in place, people don't have the space to store food.  Most housing projects refrigerators are the smallest "full size" one you can imagine, something you'd see in a college apartment (not the tiny half fridge but not too much bigger)

It makes no sense to lock down unless you lock the country down.  So people keep partying elsewhere, come to NYC and respread the infection?  

 
Courtjester said:
So a question my wife and I were wondering about is, lets say a shelter in place is put in effect, do they still allow people to receive Fedex and Amazon shipments? I mean with all the pharamacies pushing people to go to mail order, this seems like an important question. What about grocery delivery as well? 
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Probably safer than increased foot traffic.  Personally I'm wiping down all mail and packages before storing/opening.  Then washing my hands.

Jagov said:
A large group of my friends/co-workers (30+) returned this past Saturday from a ski trip in Austria. This is the first year I have not been with them in 5+ years. Based on the state of things I wanted to stay with my family. Took a $ hit because most of the money was already paid and non-refundable. OK.

About half of them are now down with serious flu-like symptoms. A few are in quite bad shape. Most are young and strong but still ...

This got me to thinking that the apres ski bars in all of those Alpine ski resorts probably were prime incubation places. Tightly packed places with bad air circulation. Hundreds of sweaty folks. Far too much booze. This virus was there at the peak of the ski season.  :(
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You're a smart guy.  Hope your friends get better.

 
Smack Tripper said:
The local color is, these two have been at odds for years, so if one says white the other almost has to say black.  The difference is, Cuomo is a lifer in politics and seems to know what he's doing and DiBlasio is a conniving opportunist who's got a hell of a lazy streak.  He is unlike any mayor I've seen, he's late to events, he works out for 2 hours a day which is really almost 3 hours after his motorcade travels.

DiBlasio wanted to keep the schools open this time last week and now he wants to shelter in place?  

NYC is going to be very tricky to shelter in place, people don't have the space to store food.  Most housing projects refrigerators are the smallest "full size" one you can imagine, something you'd see in a college apartment (not the tiny half fridge but not too much bigger)

It makes no sense to lock down unless you lock the country down.  So people keep partying elsewhere, come to NYC and respread the infection?  
Click to expand...
De Blasio still going to the gym before arriving at work ~10-11am?

 
tonydead said:
You dont say.

People in here were saying that China tested nearly everyone that was infected. 
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WHO said this in mid-February in their oft-cited 40-page China report, not "people". Before this report, almost all of us assumed the China confirmed-case count HAD to be low. After WHO came out with that report, many trusted in WHO's analysis and assumed that there were few "uncaught" cases in China. Others still doubted the Chinese counts, and still others (me, for one) rode the fence.

I will say this: influenza is known to have a very large number of undiagnosed cases every year. Statistical background sampling on healthy people has been done for influenza many times. I read recently (and should be able to find a cite, but it's cited WAY back in this thread) that something like 1.6 billion (with a B) people are infected with a strain of influenza every year. Thanks to natural immunity, flu shots, and blind luck, something like 90% of the cases (maybe more) are asymptomatic.

I don't see a logical reason why SARS-CoV-2 would behave all that differently, minus the availability of a partial** vaccine as exists for influenza.

** "partial" meaning "not every known strain covered".

 
shader said:
fyi, great source for info on the coronavirus in any particular country is wikipedia.  Your statement sparked my interest and I'm reading that entry now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Japan
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My quick takes from reading Japan's response is that they responded very quickly.  In mid-February the government was focused on preventing large-scale outbreaks.  All the things the USA are doing this month, they did last month.

They had less than 200 total cases when their government started these policies.  

 
Otis said:
Pretty sure this is coming today for NYC and certain suburbs. Mayor Diblasio has been talking about it for two days, I assume just to let it sink in and get everyone comfortable with the idea, and last night was on CNN and his language was even stronger.  Matter of time I imagine. 
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Just recently Maryland Governor Larry Hogan stated he doesn’t foresee a shelter in place situation for now. You guys might be different. 

Wife and I just got back from the last grocery run we’re gonna make for awhile. Gonna be a lot of alcohol, weed, movies, games, and yard work for a few weeks.

If the crap really hit the fan we could make it a year. There’s a few streams nearby, plenty of deer and we were planning on starting a garden this spring anyway. 
 

Things would be good until we ran out of wine. Then nothing is promised. :shudder:

 
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Jagov said:
A large group of my friends/co-workers (30+) returned this past Saturday from a ski trip in Austria. This is the first year I have not been with them in 5+ years. Based on the state of things I wanted to stay with my family. Took a $ hit because most of the money was already paid and non-refundable. OK.

About half of them are now down with serious flu-like symptoms. A few are in quite bad shape. Most are young and strong but still ...

This got me to thinking that the apres ski bars in all of those Alpine ski resorts probably were prime incubation places. Tightly packed places with bad air circulation. Hundreds of sweaty folks. Far too much booze. This virus was there at the peak of the ski season.  :(
Click to expand...
Until yday more people in Denmark were infected in Austria than in Denmark. There is no doubt the (in)actions of the municipalities will merit some serious looking into, for learning what not to do

 
Jagov said:
A large group of my friends/co-workers (30+) returned this past Saturday from a ski trip in Austria. This is the first year I have not been with them in 5+ years. Based on the state of things I wanted to stay with my family. Took a $ hit because most of the money was already paid and non-refundable. OK.

About half of them are now down with serious flu-like symptoms. A few are in quite bad shape. Most are young and strong but still ...

This got me to thinking that the apres ski bars in all of those Alpine ski resorts probably were prime incubation places. Tightly packed places with bad air circulation. Hundreds of sweaty folks. Far too much booze. This virus was there at the peak of the ski season.  :(
Click to expand...
I'm sorry to hear about your friends, but glad you chose wisely. 

 
Godsbrother said:
It is difficult for people to stop seeing family members immediately and for an indefinite period of time.  
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Today is new year for Iranians. Huge celebration. I have no doubt there will be gatherings behind closed doors, sadly.

 
Also, just fed up with trying to talk sense into my mother. They aren’t taking this serious. 

Her theory is it’s airborne and basically nothing is going to stop it so why even bother. :mellow:  

I’ve been on my parent’s case about selling their condo and they’ve been dragging their feet for months and now all of a sudden, this week they want me to help them clean it out. 
 

I don’t understand people. 
 

 
shader said:
My quick takes from reading Japan's response is that they responded very quickly.  In mid-February the government was focused on preventing large-scale outbreaks.  All the things the USA are doing this month, they did last month.

They had less than 200 total cases when their government started these policies.  
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They also have a culture that lends to complying with structure and direction. As well as a reverence for self sacrifice. So there is also a large cultural aspect to this

 
Smack Tripper said:
The local color is, these two have been at odds for years, so if one says white the other almost has to say black.  The difference is, Cuomo is a lifer in politics and seems to know what he's doing and DiBlasio is a conniving opportunist who's got a hell of a lazy streak.  He is unlike any mayor I've seen, he's late to events, he works out for 2 hours a day which is really almost 3 hours after his motorcade travels.

DiBlasio wanted to keep the schools open this time last week and now he wants to shelter in place?  

NYC is going to be very tricky to shelter in place, people don't have the space to store food.  Most housing projects refrigerators are the smallest "full size" one you can imagine, something you'd see in a college apartment (not the tiny half fridge but not too much bigger)

It makes no sense to lock down unless you lock the country down.  So people keep partying elsewhere, come to NYC and respread the infection?  
Click to expand...
I read a lot of negative things about DiBlasio as I follow many transportation/biking advocates and he is abysmal on that front.

 
Joe Bryant said:
Thank you. I guess it shouldn't surprise me as everything seems this way now but it seems from what I see that NYC has two very different takes. One is it's near disaster. The other is Cuomo is guiding it well and it'll be ok.

Do you have an opinion there on balancing the two? 
Click to expand...
Cuomo has been great at the state level.  Mayor Deblasio, on the other hand, has been an absolute train wreck.  He was fighting back on school closures when everyone around the coutnry and in the NYC suburbs was implementing closures.  He's had his head in the sand.  Unfortunately with such a dense population, and so much reliance on public transportation, I have no doubt his refusal to act will end in tens of thousands of additional infections in the area.  

I also have no doubt that the NYC "shelter in place" order is coming, any minute.  I don't see how you avoid it with the steep jump in infections and the density here.  If they're doing this in NorCal, how in god's name do you not do it in Manhattan?   The pressure will just become overwhelming.

Deblasio just doing a really poor job here.  I get there are a lot of competing concerns, and concerns about putting kids at home and child care issues, but the major public health issue should trump all of this.  They've found a way to get it done in other places, and you need to get it done here.

Most everyone I know in the area lives in the suburbs now and have been telecommuting all week, and will be for the foreseeable future.  As I understand from my colleagues who are still heading into our office in 30 Rock, Manhattan is a ghost town.  So, even if Deblasio isn't acting, at least the people, in general, are.

But yeah, I have great concerns about the NYC area.  It's not surprising to me there has been a run on gun purchases in the Long Island suburbs.  People are anxious, and scared, and don't know what to do.  The guns will be totally useless--we're not about to come under massive looting and home invasion scenarios--but it's a sign of how people are feeling.

 
Doug B said:
WHO said this in mid-February in their oft-cited 40-page China report, not "people". Before this report, almost all of us assumed the China confirmed-case count HAD to be low. After WHO came out with that report, many trusted in WHO's analysis and assumed that there were few "uncaught" cases in China. Others still doubted the Chinese counts, and still others (me, for one) rode the fence.

I will say this: influenza is known to have a very large number of undiagnosed cases every year. Statistical background sampling on healthy people has been done for influenza many times. I read recently (and should be able to find a cite, but it's cited WAY back in this thread) that something like 1.6 billion (with a B) people are infected with a strain of influenza every year. Thanks to natural immunity, flu shots, and blind luck, something like 90% of the cases (maybe more) are asymptomatic.

I don't see a logical reason why SARS-CoV-2 would behave all that differently, minus the availability of a partial** vaccine as exists for influenza.

** "partial" meaning "not every known strain covered".
Click to expand...
Some of us were ridiculed for knowing what mathematically had to be true.

 
Doug B said:
WHO said this in mid-February in their oft-cited 40-page China report, not "people". Before this report, almost all of us assumed the China confirmed-case count HAD to be low. After WHO came out with that report, many trusted in WHO's analysis and assumed that there were few "uncaught" cases in China. Others still doubted the Chinese counts, and still others (me, for one) rode the fence.

I will say this: influenza is known to have a very large number of undiagnosed cases every year. Statistical background sampling on healthy people has been done for influenza many times. I read recently (and should be able to find a cite, but it's cited WAY back in this thread) that something like 1.6 billion (with a B) people are infected with a strain of influenza every year. Thanks to natural immunity, flu shots, and blind luck, something like 90% of the cases (maybe more) are asymptomatic.

I don't see a logical reason why SARS-CoV-2 would behave all that differently, minus the availability of a partial** vaccine as exists for influenza.

** "partial" meaning "not every known strain covered".
Click to expand...
FYI, the study  being referenced is based on math and estimates, not based on actual results.

A few highlights from the WHO report that I think are good to re-post.  They are good for me as it's been 3 weeks since I've read the report and these articles.  IMO, these hold much more water than "estimates" from people that weren't on the ground.

China has a policy of meticulous case and contact identification for COVID-19. For example, in Wuhan more than 1800 teams of epidemiologists, with a minimum of 5 people/team, are tracing tens of thousands of contacts a day. Contact follow up is painstaking, with a high percentage of identified close contacts completing medical observation. Between 1% and 5% of contacts were subsequently laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19, depending on location. 

Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.

Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.

Interview with Bruce Aylward of WHO:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china

More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.

 
jplvr said:
Wakes up late... does some chores and errands... gets something to drink... opens the board... clicks on this thread... "what page was I on last? oh, 343... what page is this thread on now? oh, 353"... skips all 10 pages.
Click to expand...
Pretty much my routine as well. No way to keep up with thread. Hate that there is probably some really good info in there but don't have the time.

 
What I have learned in the last 12 hours - 

people really have no idea that this is serious and still somehow think that it is just the flu and the death rate is .0001 percent..

you can't find TP or ice cream at the local grocer; - maybe folks are lactose intolerant and that is why they need all of the TP :shrug:

Based upon the number of people out you would think there is nothing going on - we are so screwed. 

(yes, I was out..for the 1st time in 4 days - I had a prescription to pick up and then went for bread and milk - I looked for TP and icecream also)

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
Gov Cuomo of New York doing an excellent job IMO in the leadership department. 

"Misinformation, Fear and Panic as deadly as the virus itself"

Well said!
Click to expand...
Did you see the comments of his I posted earlier today? When asked about establishing a shelter in place order, he was telling people in NYC to go to the park, go for for a walk, and go shopping. The city wasn't closing and people needed to go out get fresh air. Sure, panic is a problem, but so is encouraging people in a hot zone to congregate at a park.

 
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