What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

I think Jayrod brings up good, valid arguments. I think they’re things we’ve all probably thought about when we try to picture what the future looks like after we get on the other side of this. The only thing is that those are ethical arguments for a bit down the road. We need to remember that we are still very early in the fight. It seems like this has been going on for longer than it really has. We need to do what we can right now to stabilize the healthcare system and prevent it from becoming overwhelmed. If we don’t do that first and foremost, we’re most likely in big time trouble. 

 
cashman88 said:
Any word on the Remdesivir trials?
Click to expand...
DOOM AND GLOOM ALERT!

I've mentioned this already, but there is no precedent for rapid development of highly effective antivirals. HIV treatment is one of the greatest medical triumphs in human history, and it took ~15 years after the virus was identified. Hepatitis C treatment piggybacked on HIV therapeutic advances, but less toxic, "curative" drugs took decades to develop. Those are the best examples of what antiviral therapy can accomplish, and the expected timeline.

Flu treatment doesn't eliminate influenza. It shortens the duration of symptoms by a day or so. Ribavirin is the only other drug commonly used for viral respiratory tract infection, and the data supporting its use is limited.

And you've probably already heard about vaccine expectations.

I really, really hope we figure out a treatment/prevention plan for SARS-CoV-2, but I'm not optimistic it will happen anytime soon. This underscores the importance of effective containment measures. In addition to "flattening the curve" to spare healthcare collapse, the more virus we allow to replicate, the more likely it will mutate.

 
Man In The Box said:
I think Jayrod brings up good, valid arguments. I think they’re things we’ve all probably thought about when we try to picture what the future looks like after we get on the other side of this. The only thing is that those are ethical arguments for a bit down the road. We need to remember that we are still very early in the fight. It seems like this has been going on for longer than it really has. We need to do what we can right now to stabilize the healthcare system and prevent it from becoming overwhelmed. If we don’t do that first and foremost, we’re most likely in big time trouble. 
Click to expand...
I would agree with this.

 
mr roboto said:
As a business owner...

We we’re profiting (EBITDA) around 10k/month. We are now spending about $4000 a month to keep a minimum rent payment and our insurance and other required payments going without any revenue. So for two months we are going to go from profiting $20,000 to losing $8000. That’s a $28,000 loss. 
 

i’m expecting to make about $5,000 to $10,000 less per month at my job. I’m in sales and it’s almost entirely commission based and people arent making big purchases right now.

So if we go two months like this I’m expecting our families going to lose roughly $30,00-$50,000.

We are very fortunate that can we can observe this loss but I’m also not sure how our businesses are going to perform after we reopen society and I have a tax liability to pay on profits from the business last year that will be more than wiped out by losses this year. 
Click to expand...
Feel for you brother. To big for stimulus, to small for a bailout. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Some people are dumb. My wife runs a company of about 60 people. Starting last Monday, they let everyone who wasn't in production move to WFH. A couple office staff still insisted on going to the office everyday. Yesterday, one of those office workers who could have been working from home calls her midday and says, "I wasn't feeling good all weekend, feel like I am getting the flu. I am probably going to WFH Tuesday." She also got a call from a freaked out production worker who says one of other production members said his girlfriend (whom he lives with) was hospitalized over the weekend for a cough and trouble breathing. WTF is wrong with people? Are people really this dumb and oblivious? 
Click to expand...
Yes. Glad I could help.

Stay safe out there. 

 
themeanmachine said:
Pretty cool...

Michael Martinez @MikeMartinez_AN

BREAKING: @Ford plans to build respirators, ventilators & face shields in Michigan in partnership with the UAW, GE Healthcare & 3M. Some details:

-1,000 respirators per month, using F-150 seat fans, portable battery packs & 3D printed parts

-100,000 face shields per week
Click to expand...
Remember this next time you (are allowed outside to) buy a vehicle. Support the companies that support the community. 

 
Jayrod said:
No, there is a point where the death graph lines will cross, that is a fact as well.
Click to expand...
It's your opinion.  It's not a fact.  There are thousands of unknowns that go into any such calculation, such as the secondary effect on the economy from the virus-related deaths and potential actions by government to blunt the economic damage.  Regardless, this will be my last post on the topic.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Austin shelter in place starts today — for three weeks. 
Click to expand...
I know I was a little condescending when this thread fired up to you and your bunker tactics but I'm apologizing now and giving you kudos for being ahead of this  :thumbup:  Good job by you Ham, it took a while but I came around and now folks are thinking I know what I'm talking about thanks to you and many others in this thread. Thanks all.

DocHolliday said:
This is the kind of action that will help us get through this.   
Click to expand...
So antidote to this. One of our supplies builds an atomizing misting fan. Works great to cool folks down during the hot months (think sidelines on a football field). They took it upon themselves to see if they could come up with something to help so they mixed a bleach solution and fired it up. While it is well intentioned and I think it probably does have an application for gross disinfection, I'm not sure either of the two applications they are advertising is doable. We tested it last Friday and after 5 minutes, our eyes felt the chlorine and it took until about 9pm before the taste/smell of it left me. Can't imagine what an area would smell like after leaving this thing on for 4-5 hours overnight.

Office Area

Warehouse Area

 
E-Z Glider said:
My wife has had sore throat off and on, low-grade fever (never over 100), fatigue, and no appetite for about 10 days now. Her parents are very "at-risk" and have daily in-house nurses. She's terrified that the nurses will no longer be able to come, or that they will infect her parents, or that she will be forced into action if the nurses get sick and then she will "infect" her parents.

She hasn't left the house for over 10 days. Its literally impossible that she has it. And yet she feels sick every day. Its surely stress/anxiety related, but that doesnt make it any less real.  :(

No idea what your situation is, just sharing hers. Hope you're feeling better.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure that's true - you said she hasn't left for 10 days and has felt bad for 10 days.  There's a lot of time before that she could have come in contact with it.

I do think stress adds to it.  Right now my SIL/BIL are recovering from something while they are probably going through a divorce, my Uncle is getting out of the hospital and my Mom thinks she has the flu but in her words "I don't think I have that virus".   :wall:   Unfortunately, I think a lot of us are in for a rude awakening in 2-3 weeks.  I'm very fearful there's not enough of us taking this serious enough.

 
Terminalxylem said:
DOOM AND GLOOM ALERT!

I've mentioned this already, but there is no precedent for rapid development of highly effective antivirals. HIV treatment is one of the greatest medical triumphs in human history, and it took ~15 years after the virus was identified. Hepatitis C treatment piggybacked on HIV therapeutic advances, but less toxic, "curative" drugs took decades to develop. Those are the best examples of what antiviral therapy can accomplish, and the expected timeline.

Flu treatment doesn't eliminate influenza. It shortens the duration of symptoms by a day or so. Ribavirin is the only other drug commonly used for viral respiratory tract infection, and the data supporting its use is limited.

And you've probably already heard about vaccine expectations.

I really, really hope we figure out a treatment/prevention plan for SARS-CoV-2, but I'm not optimistic it will happen anytime soon. This underscores the importance of effective containment measures. In addition to "flattening the curve" to spare healthcare collapse, the more virus we allow to replicate, the more likely it will mutate.
Click to expand...
So as somebody who doesn’t understand this stuff at all, what is New York doing using 100k of those pills that people have been touting to work? I read they were putting them into play today. Last-ditch effort to save people? 

 
Ksquared said:
I am going to jump in this and may regret it, but the same can be said for shutting everything down.  There were charts that were linked that showed deaths from both options, you have to decide what numbers you want to go with.  I have been in this thread daily from the beginning and the "shut it all down" crowd never has an exact end game.  They cannot quantify (or simply don't when discussing this issue) what will trigger we can get back to even semi-normal.  See Hong Kong and leaks from China that this is not going away just because we shut down everything for 2 weeks, a month, two months, etc.

I am blown away when Jayrod gets chastised by Joe for bring up a valid point.  The crowd that wants to shut it all down needs to quantify what has to happen to allow the releasing of society.  And many in here clearly have no idea about macro or micro economics and the long term affects this is having.  Economies are like freight trains or very large ships, it takes a long time to get them stopped (normally) and going again.  I would guess from my background that everyday we are telling people to not go out will add a month to the length of getting the economy back to a resemblance of normal.  This will not be a quick recovery like many seem to think.  Wait to see what happens when the end of March unemployment numbers are around 10% (hopefully) and in the 20% range by the end of April.
Click to expand...
This isn't an either/or scenario, nor do we have to "decide what numbers we want to go with."  This is a false dichotomy.

Shutting down while we (try to) contain will undoubtedly have a staggering economic impact.  What seems to be lost on that side of the argument is that letting the disease run rampant and claim millions of lives will also have a staggering economic impact, and not only after the fact.  It will just as surely shut down the economy.  Except now, a bit later, and with significantly less human capital on the other side, and long-lasting social devastation in its wake.

The time to make either/or decisions is quickly fading into the rearview mirror.  Our culture is choosing both/and.  Remarkable when we're getting to see what both paths on that decision branch look like, playing out in real time across the globe.  Spain and Italy stayed open for business too long.  New York City stayed open for business too long.  They're shutting down whether they want to or not, now.  Nobody's making economic arguments from the ICU or the morgue, except passive and (IMO) very convincing ones.

The firm national belief in American exceptionalism is about to be put to the biological test.  I don't know of a doctor anywhere who thinks it'll save us any pain in this.

 
I'm getting strong vibes that this country is about to deal with a "go back to work" problem.Trump's comments, the TX governor's comments, messages on forums/social media about people's jobs and livelihoods.  At this point the death numbers don't merit the economic shutdown in the eyes of many people that aren't educated on the subject.  If this country goes back to work, things here will be many times worse than Italy.

 
shader said:
I'm getting strong vibes that this country is about to deal with a "go back to work" problem.Trump's comments, the TX governor's comments, messages on forums/social media about people's jobs and livelihoods.  At this point the death numbers don't merit the economic shutdown in the eyes of many people that aren't educated on the subject.  If this country goes back to work, things here will be many times worse than Italy.
Click to expand...
Let me make it perfectly clear.

I am NOT advocating just "going back to work".  That would be asinine.  The good thing about our country is that our local officials have the power to keep measures in place to lock down places that need to stay in their homes.

 
cosjobs said:
Is arbitrage necessarily bad? Seems mean to lump it with destruction and loss. 
Click to expand...
Can be. When it’s the financial arbitrage of which business survives and which doesn’t and when decisions will be made at all govt levels that will determine some who make it and some who don’t?  I feel lumping it in is apropos 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I'm in favor of lockdowns.  I'm also in favor of realism and very much against wishful thinking.  "I had a fever back in February -- I'll bet it was coronavirus" is wishful thinking, not hard-headed realism.
Click to expand...
To be fair, there is still a lot to learn about the coronavirus....even the medical experts will admit to this.  Nothing is impossible at this point in regards to exactly when this was sprouting up in the US.

 
Jayrod said:
We can't.  We are literally guessing.  It sucks, but we can't simply ignore it.
Click to expand...
Actually yes we can ignore it, because it's not applicable in this situation.

In times of "normalcy" (so to speak), people die for economic reasons because overall people are #######s. What I mean is that while there are generous people who help people when they are down on their luck, those generous people are a minority. The majority is the "get a job you lazy ####" type people. It's the type of people who think in capitalism opportunity exists for everyone, and if someone isn't working, it's their own fault because of their own bad decisions, and that the only help they should get and deserve to get is when they start to help themselves. People who are victims of capitalism (and yes, even though capitalism is the best, it is NOT perfect) die because there are too few people willing to step up and help them.

This coronavirus outbreak is not a time of "normalcy". In fact, when all is said and done, this may be one of the biggest, if not THE biggest event in the history of this country, killing more Americans than any war we've been through. Hopefully we avoid numbers like that with the  actions that we are taking. But those actions we are taking are causing economic victims at an unheard of scale. Will they die at the same rate economic victims die? Absolutely not! Because while many people hold to the "you need to help yourself" belief during normal times, only completely heartless #######s will continue with that belief during this one. Unfortunately those that do continue with that belief will be uber rich people, but that's another topic for discussion. The amount of people that change their attitude and chose to help those who need help economically will be well more than enough to help those who need it and keep people from dying. It will take some time for that adjustment in mindset to occur, but it will. How different it will be than the help available than times of "normalcy" is hard to enumerate, but it will be great none the less.

So can we please stop with the argument that we need to restart the economy ASAP or people will die because we don't. The economy can be brought back to life anytime. People who died can't.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ksquared said:
I am going to jump in this and may regret it, but the same can be said for shutting everything down.  There were charts that were linked that showed deaths from both options, you have to decide what numbers you want to go with.  I have been in this thread daily from the beginning and the "shut it all down" crowd never has an exact end game.  They cannot quantify (or simply don't when discussing this issue) what will trigger we can get back to even semi-normal.  See Hong Kong and leaks from China that this is not going away just because we shut down everything for 2 weeks, a month, two months, etc.

I am blown away when Jayrod gets chastised by Joe for bring up a valid point.  The crowd that wants to shut it all down needs to quantify what has to happen to allow the releasing of society.  And many in here clearly have no idea about macro or micro economics and the long term affects this is having.  Economies are like freight trains or very large ships, it takes a long time to get them stopped (normally) and going again.  I would guess from my background that everyday we are telling people to not go out will add a month to the length of getting the economy back to a resemblance of normal.  This will not be a quick recovery like many seem to think.  Wait to see what happens when the end of March unemployment numbers are around 10% (hopefully) and in the 20% range by the end of April.
Click to expand...
Fair points.  However, there are a number of models showing death count.  Are you saying those models are not satisfactory?

For example, 70% infection rate with a 4% mortality rate (which the US is currently tracking to) puts us at 9.5m deaths.  How is that for quantifying?

Now, for the record, I do not believe we will have 9.5m deaths.  I believe us shutting us down will flatten the curve and we will hit a 0.5% mortality rate over the next 5-6 months.  Hopefully this is enough time to get our #### together.

If we didnt shutdown?  I think 1-7mil deaths would be very reasonable.

 
Politician Spock said:
Actually yes we can ignore it, because it's not applicable in this situation.

So can we please stop with the argument that we need to restart the economy ASAP or people will die because we don't. The economy can be brought back to life anytime. People who died can't.  
Click to expand...
What about the people who die from the poor economy?  People die as a direct result of poverty, not just because people are jerks.

And it CANNOT be brought back to life "anytime".

 
Cjw_55106 said:
Why should they be "outed" and why are people angry that they haven't? 
Click to expand...
Its a highly contagious disease in a small town. The practice right now is to trust that the people are self quarantining and rely on their memory of who they ran into. 

Thats dumb. 

The two women that came forward have been met with help and kindness. 

Sooner or later everybody will know exactly who hosted and attended. Instead of a community being able to help itself and prevent spread by alerting people in real time, people will be mad that these people cared more about their right to privacy than the safety of the community. 

It should have been public knowledge day one.

I gave the example already of a coworker of my wife catching it. They wont say who. They are relying on the information from the coworker for contact tracing. 

It is a very big company. He or she could easily forget some people that were in a meeting with them. Or the elevator. Or whatever else. 

So we have no problem crushing the economic livelihood of a lot of people but heaven forbid people learn if somebody has coronavirus. 

Oh no the stigma!!! Omg they will have to live with people offering to bring them groceries!

 
Jayrod said:
What about the people who die from the poor economy?  People die as a direct result of poverty, not just because people are jerks.

And it CANNOT be brought back to life "anytime".
Click to expand...
Given my answer to your question is exactly the words you cut out from my post, it is clear to me you don't want to hear the answer. I'm not going to discuss it with someone like that. 

 
Jayrod said:
Huh?  So unless we know all the details, it isn't true?  You see how that statement is false, right?  Poverty kills people, that is a fact.  Shutting down the economy is causing poverty to increase, that is a fact.  Ergo, shutting down the economy is killing people.  Just because I can't accurately quantify that number doesn't mean it isn't true.
Click to expand...
It doesnt mean it isnt true, it means your projection is based on opinion and not data.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Sure.  If I had cold-like symptoms back in February, there is some very remote chance that I was one of the tiny number of people who had coronavirus very early on, before it became a public health crisis.  The probability of that isn't literally zero, just very small.
Click to expand...
How small?  Like 1/1000?  How about 1/10,000

When it comes to the US populate, those "very small" or "literally zero" chances become significant.

Its like online poker.  Once the world started playing a million hands of poker an hour, royal flushes started popping up all the time.  When we think about a world population of 4b and a US population of 340m, how many people come through airports, even the small chances become realities.

Again - if you reread my post, I said I would be first in line for the anti-body test.  This will answer definitively right?

 
mr roboto said:
Am I correct to believe that the only real data we have right now is number of people that have died. I feel like total cases are irrelevant based on testing procedures. 
 

also, deaths are a lagging indicator reflecting cases that happened 7 to 14 days before the patient died. How are we ever going to have an accurate mortality rate if we never really knew how many people actually contracted the virus?
Click to expand...
IMO, all the data is somewhat taken out of context. For starters, the most important number is number of cases requiring hospitalization. But even that is not telling the right story. We could have 50,000 people hospitalized across the country, but having 1,000 people hospitalized all in the same place would be worse. The fatality rate will vary based on the over saturation of cases in an area. And as brought up previously, there will be indirect fatalities due to devoting medical resources to COVID which will never be included in the statistics. 

 
Jayrod said:
We can't.  We are literally guessing.  It sucks, but we can't simply ignore it.
Click to expand...
OK - so you are guessing, without using any data to drive your hypothesis, that the economic impact of shutting down will be worse than the flattening.

I value your opinion.  I disagree with it, but I hear you.

 
JAA said:
How small?  Like 1/1000?  How about 1/10,000

When it comes to the US populate, those "very small" or "literally zero" chances become significant.

Its like online poker.  Once the world started playing a million hands of poker an hour, royal flushes started popping up all the time.  When we think about a world population of 4b and a US population of 340m, how many people come through airports, even the small chances become realities.

Again - if you reread my post, I said I would be first in line for the anti-body test.  This will answer definitively right?
Click to expand...
Sure, but there's a huge difference between saying "Somebody, somewhere will be dealt a royal flush on their next hand" and "I will be dealt a royal flush on my next hand."  The first statement has an extremely high probability of being true.  The second has an extremely low probability of being true.  They are not in the same universe of probability.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
The population of Lombardy is about 10MM people.

If you look at the comparison here it's difficult to see how NYC gets out of this with fewer than 5-10k fatalities.  And to limit it to that we'd have to more or less shut it down completely in the next few days.
Click to expand...
What’s been disconcerting to me is this is a simple math conclusion...I’m no epidemiology expert or quite frankly have any knowledge whatsoever regarding the transmission or seriousness of COVID-19.  But the numbers are the numbers and what Cuomo has been trying to emphasize is the need to value time...he’s already resigned to the fact this will spread through a majority of the population, NYC in particular because of its density.  He’s trying to force that infection rate over a period months not weeks...because if it’s weeks, God help them.

Its crazy how people don’t understand that if you don’t flatten the curve and you get sick, you’re likely on your own medically.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
IvanKaramazov said:
Sure, but there's a huge difference between saying "Somebody, somewhere will be dealt a royal flush on their next hand" and "I will be dealt a royal flush on my next hand."  The first statement has an extremely high probability of being true.  The second has an extremely low probability of being true.  They are not in the same universe of probability.
Click to expand...
I had a Royal Flush dealt to me in early February. I just didn't know it because the cards were all different suits. 

 
chet said:
Actually, it is in patients with severe cases.  
Click to expand...
No, SARS-CoV-2 acutely depresses total lymphocyte count in a subset of patients. This includes both CD4 and CD8 T cells. The mechanism of this decrease is unclear, but transient lymphopenia is not uncommon in severe infection of just about any cause, including bacteria and other viruses.

HIV infects macrophages and CD4+ lymphocytes directly, and gradually kills them off over a period of years. In contrast, CD8+ cells increase in early infection, but tank in later disease. Concomitantly, B cells are activated and there is a paradoxical hypergammaglobulinemia, but humoral immune response is decreased. "Cytokine storm" is not a feature of HIV disease.

AFIK, the only commonality is decease in lymphocyte count, but the mechanism, duration and extent of immune involvement of the two viruses are otherwise quite different. And to be clear, a lot of infections transiently decrease lymphocyte counts.

What other common characteristics does SARS-CoV-2 share with HIV? I know the the drug you're promoting targets CCR5, which is a co-receptor for HIV. There were early reports that SARS-CoV-2 also involves that receptor, but I thought they were debunked.

Though I've not seen this comparison made, I was thinking SARS-CoV-2 immunology was potentially more like dengue. Dengue causes decreases in cell counts, and has a hyperimmune phenomenon like the "cytokine storm" described in COVID-19. This results from re-infection with a second dengue strain, due to cross reacting antibodies - is it possible people who experience the "cytokine storm" have an overzealous immune response from prior, non-COVID coronavirus infection?

 
Capella said:
I would suggest we don’t have any real data, truthfully 
Click to expand...
Deaths is the only real data.  Well, that and the stock market.  Both are (should be) trailing indicators.  Testing should be a leading indicator but IMHO it cant be trusted right now.

 
JAA said:
OK - so you are guessing, without using any data to drive your hypothesis, that the economic impact of shutting down will be worse than the flattening.

I value your opinion.  I disagree with it, but I hear you.
Click to expand...
Not as an either or, but on some unknown sliding scale, yes.

 
Jayrod said:
No, there is a point where the death graph lines will cross, that is a fact as well.
Click to expand...
Will they?  How do you know for sure?  What if they cross at an advantageous spot?  Can you show that?

My advice is to not speak in terms of fact.  I would encourage you to use lines like "Im my opinion" or "I believe".

 
JAA said:
Will they?  How do you know for sure?  What if they cross at an advantageous spot?  Can you show that?

My advice is to not speak in terms of fact.  I would encourage you to use lines like "Im my opinion" or "I believe".
Click to expand...
OK, so unless you can tell me exactly how many people will die if we do nothing to stop it, then you preface it with, "in my opinion".

 
Man In The Box said:
I think Jayrod brings up good, valid arguments. I think they’re things we’ve all probably thought about when we try to picture what the future looks like after we get on the other side of this. The only thing is that those are ethical arguments for a bit down the road. We need to remember that we are still very early in the fight. It seems like this has been going on for longer than it really has. We need to do what we can right now to stabilize the healthcare system and prevent it from becoming overwhelmed. If we don’t do that first and foremost, we’re most likely in big time trouble. 
Click to expand...
I disagree.  He is not making arguments.  He is stating opinions as facts and I think that is a bad idea.  We are still in a data gathering phase.  We dont know where we are in the curve as it was pointed out last night.

I think there is good discussion in there, but again - the statements are made as facts.

 
Ksquared said:
I am blown away when Jayrod gets chastised by Joe for bring up a valid point.  The crowd that wants to shut it all down needs to quantify what has to happen to allow the releasing of society.  And many in here clearly have no idea about macro or micro economics and the long term affects this is having.  Economies are like freight trains or very large ships, it takes a long time to get them stopped (normally) and going again.  I would guess from my background that everyday we are telling people to not go out will add a month to the length of getting the economy back to a resemblance of normal.  This will not be a quick recovery like many seem to think.  Wait to see what happens when the end of March unemployment numbers are around 10% (hopefully) and in the 20% range by the end of April.
Click to expand...
Our peak case count starting to decline.

Is that a perfect answer, no, but a good starting point. If we took more serious measures a couple weeks ago, we might only have been a couple weeks from having that discussion. 

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

K
Coronavirus prevention
Replies
4
Views
324
JaxBill
JaxBill
nirad3
COVID-19 / CoronaVirus - terms/phrases
Replies
35
Views
623
Galileo
Galileo
Joe Bryant
Scared to ask but don't have anywhere else - Clay Travis Article?
2
Replies
71
Views
3K
roadkill1292
roadkill1292

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 15 (members: 0, guests: 15)
Top