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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

Kal El said:
I don't understand why people are apparently choosing the economy over people's lives. Yes, the economy is going to suffer in a big way because of this, it might even be worse than the Great Depression for a while, but no money in the world is worth exchanging human lives for. We'll all have to make changes, whether we like it or not, but this is not a time to think about jumpstarting the economy. That can wait.
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For some people, losing everything you own would basically be there life. The Great Depression was no picnic.

 
Penguin said:
What will be the bar and restaurant landscape after this?
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Gone or dominated by the big players. Craft beer and small independent restaurant will be crushed without significant sit down sales. Thousands of breweries are nowhere near the size they need to be to survive on the margins of a distribution heavy model. To-go and delivery sales will only support a small staff for so long and only for the best breweries.

 
My ####### sister is insisting that dogs can't carry it.  She's got a lapdog that she just brought to our 88 year old Mom (who has high BP).  I have tried like hell to keep her safe for a month now.  Sister, who lives a block away and rarely visited prior to the pandemic, waltzes up just now and lets the dog go nuts.  I'm beyond livid.  At both of them, actually.

I haven't read enough of this thread -- it gets too depressing at times, unfortunately -- to know the consensus on pets carrying this ####.  Does anyone have some links on that?  I just feel it's too risky, period.  Certainly not worth the 2 minutes of petting for ####'s sake.

While I'm at it.  Thanks for the massive contributions all of you make in here.  Little chance I would've been out in front of this thing without you.  Stay safe.

 
BassNBrew said:
For some people, losing everything you own would basically be there life. The Great Depression was no picnic.
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I'm fully aware, but stuff can be replaced. People can't. If I lose everything I own, yeah, it'll suck, but if I'm alive, I can work, and I'm in a field that's an absolute necessity for everyone, except maybe the Amish.

 
adonis said:
Agreed.

That's why I'm curious as to the views of those who think the economy should be opened again full throttle.  Let folks decide for themselves if they're hermits for a year, or fully engaged in the workforce, or somewhere inbetween.

To me, I see one outcome of this and it's pretty terrible.  For others, I think they see a shinier outcome.  I'd be curious to hear the optimistic view.

I'm not sure there's a person out there who wouldn't prefer things to go back to normal ASAP.  But what are those costs?

I'm trying to sell a house in one city and buy another.  That was the plan.  But now...who the hell knows?  I'm in a city that relies on an industry very hard hit from this downturn.  Housing prices to plummet?  SHould we just rent in the new city?  What about our job stability, me and the wife.  3 kids in school - what about them?

Hell, I'm happy to entertain ideas about getting things back to normal soon.  I'd love it.  But tell me the price and be honest about it.
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Ok, I'll take a crack at this.  But be forewarned, my "optimistic view" is likely less optimistic than most.

  1. The near nation-wide lock down is effective in slowing the spread over the next few weeks.  That stock market stabilizes.
  2. Within the next 10 days the death of a famous person who is neither old nor has substantive underlying medical conditions occurs.  Simultaneously, most Americans discover they are only 2/3 degrees of separation from someone who either dies or has a near-death experience with this virus.  These two things alerts ALL of us to the seriousness of this virus and the aforementioned slow-down turns into a R naught below 1.  The stock market remains stable.
  3. By end of May the virus is as common as it was in March, but now there is substantial testing and contact tracing and so we begin to re-emerge cautiously from our quarantines content in the knowledge that with new cleaning regimens and smart social distancing we can feel ok doing simple things like shopping (they have created an app queuing system to ensure there is never over-crowding), walking in big cities (they close entire streets to provide pedestrians with extra walking room), and taking mass transit (masks and temp checks are a requirement to board trains and buses).  The stock market gains 2%
  4. In June restaurants re-open by promoting that they have: fewer tables to create more spacing, servers wearing masks, and temp checks for all patrons.  The stimulus package was effective in stemming the worst possible outcome as unemployment never exceeds 15%.  The stock market gains another 3%
  5. In late June there is confirmation that the virus does not transmit well in the summer.  Additionally there is confirmation that a treatment plan that reduces both mortality AND hospitalization to something similar to the seasonal flu (IF engaged early enough) is on the way.  People begin to plan trips; airlines and hotel chains announce re-hiring plans. Unemployment falls below 10% and the stock market gains 5%.
  6. July and August demonstrate that the above conditions have kept the virus largely intact, but there's still a fear that it will return with a vengeance in the Fall.  The stock market is stable.
  7. The virus does return, but the prohibition on large gatherings and the substantial contact tracing limits the spread.  Treatment is also clearly effective.  The NFL/NCAA seasons begin with games played without crowds, but by November crowds are allowed.  The stock market rises 10% between September and November.
  8. In December, word comes that a vaccine has been approved and is 2 months away from wide-scale distribution.  Stock market rises 5%.
  9. On 12/31/20 most of us raise glasses, hug our loved ones and reflect that 2020 was the longest decade** ever and we never want to go through that again, but we have gained a full appreciation for the things that were taken from us - some permanently, some temporarily.  Strangely, a few people complain that "my 401k is down 5% YoY and we stupidly shut down the whole economy for no reason."  We ignore these people.


Well, I warned ya about my "optimism"!

;)

*apologies if this is offensive.  Am not rooting for anyone to pass

**intentional

 
adonis said:
Definitely don't want to turn the FFA into the PSF cesspool, but to some degree Trump's comments on the coronvavirus and how seriously he's taking it seems relevant to this thread, no?  If he's considering, or pushing back against experts to open up church services for Easter, that seems relevant to Covid-19.  I should keep my editorialization to a minimum though, but simply saying this seems like a bad idea would be sufficient - no?
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You still just cant help yourself. Even when its clearly against the rules, many times by Joe. 

 
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BassNBrew said:
For some people, losing everything you own would basically be there life. The Great Depression was no picnic.
Click to expand...
This...My grandparents used to tell me what it was like in the Great Depression and suffering is way beyond anything most realize.  The picture of the bread lines in India would be the norm except we need to keep 6' apart.

But I am tired of the accusation that follows the lines of "if you do not want to agree with letting the shelter in place go for however long is necessary (and we never get a realistic number on this) you are choosing money over the lives of people which is incomprehensible."  We make these decisions every day in our lives and I am not one to say this is just the flu....but we have many things that are behaviors we could modify but we have decided the deaths are acceptable for the lifestyle we want/expect - best example is auto accidents.

And many seem to think you can just start up the economy and are sadly wrong.  Just one long term effect is the government just printing money without any production in the economy.  This could easily have a dramatic affect on our economy for a decade or more.  How much is the dollar really going to be worth after this?  The only hope we have is every other country in the world is going into severe debt to try to survive as well.

 
I am most worried about kids. Not only their mindset as they get exposed to all the news about this, but divorce, depression, financial stress and even suicide of their parents. 

If it was only comparing the effects of a shattered economy to the lives of 70+ year olds that would make for tough decisions. 
 

But we can’t let our health care system collapse and that will happen if we don’t stretch this virus out over several more months. 

 
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chet said:
What are the quarantine requirements for someone who's tested positive?  A friend was tested on 3/24 and the result on 3/30 was +ve.  She thinks there was an 8-day quarantine which seems way too low to me.  I think a 14-day quarantine after no symptoms is correct but I'm not sure.  Anyone know?  I don't want her infecting others.
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The virus is communicable for ~21 days.

I've read various reports which have said that a person can lift the quarantine once they've gone 3 days without a fever (without requiring Tylenol). But that seems like it might be outdated info now that we know that A) symptoms tend to come-and-go, and B) asymptomatic people can be superspreaders.

 
Morton Muffley said:
Ok, I'll take a crack at this.  But be forewarned, my "optimistic view" is likely less optimistic than most.

  1. The near nation-wide lock down is effective in slowing the spread over the next few weeks.  That stock market stabilizes.
  2. Within the next 10 days the death of a famous person who is neither old nor has substantive underlying medical conditions occurs.  Simultaneously, most Americans discover they are only 2/3 degrees of separation from someone who either dies or has a near-death experience with this virus.  These two things alerts ALL of us to the seriousness of this virus and the aforementioned slow-down turns into a R naught below 1.  The stock market remains stable.
  3. By end of May the virus is as common as it was in March, but now there is substantial testing and contact tracing and so we begin to re-emerge cautiously from our quarantines content in the knowledge that with new cleaning regimens and smart social distancing we can feel ok doing simple things like shopping (they have created an app queuing system to ensure there is never over-crowding), walking in big cities (they close entire streets to provide pedestrians with extra walking room), and taking mass transit (masks and temp checks are a requirement to board trains and buses).  The stock market gains 2%
  4. In June restaurants re-open by promoting that they have: fewer tables to create more spacing, servers wearing masks, and temp checks for all patrons.  The stimulus package was effective in stemming the worst possible outcome as unemployment never exceeds 15%.  The stock market gains another 3%
  5. In late June there is confirmation that the virus does not transmit well in the summer.  Additionally there is confirmation that a treatment plan that reduces both mortality AND hospitalization to something similar to the seasonal flu (IF engaged early enough) is on the way.  People begin to plan trips; airlines and hotel chains announce re-hiring plans. Unemployment falls below 10% and the stock market gains 5%.
  6. July and August demonstrate that the above conditions have kept the virus largely intact, but there's still a fear that it will return with a vengeance in the Fall.  The stock market is stable.
  7. The virus does return, but the prohibition on large gatherings and the substantial contact tracing limits the spread.  Treatment is also clearly effective.  The NFL/NCAA seasons begin with games played without crowds, but by November crowds are allowed.  The stock market rises 10% between September and November.
  8. In December, word comes that a vaccine has been approved and is 2 months away from wide-scale distribution.  Stock market rises 5%.
  9. On 12/31/20 most of us raise glasses, hug our loved ones and reflect that 2020 was the longest decade** ever and we never want to go through that again, but we have gained a full appreciation for the things that were taken from us - some permanently, some temporarily.  Strangely, a few people complain that "my 401k is down 5% YoY and we stupidly shut down the whole economy for no reason."  We ignore these people.


Well, I warned ya about my "optimism"!

;)

*apologies if this is offensive.  Am not rooting for anyone to pass

**intentional
Click to expand...
I’d sign up for this right now.

 
Ksquared said:
This...My grandparents used to tell me what it was like in the Great Depression and suffering is way beyond anything most realize.  The picture of the bread lines in India would be the norm except we need to keep 6' apart.

But I am tired of the accusation that follows the lines of "if you do not want to agree with letting the shelter in place go for however long is necessary (and we never get a realistic number on this) you are choosing money over the lives of people which is incomprehensible."  We make these decisions every day in our lives and I am not one to say this is just the flu....but we have many things that are behaviors we could modify but we have decided the deaths are acceptable for the lifestyle we want/expect - best example is auto accidents.

And many seem to think you can just start up the economy and are sadly wrong.  Just one long term effect is the government just printing money without any production in the economy.  This could easily have a dramatic affect on our economy for a decade or more.  How much is the dollar really going to be worth after this?  The only hope we have is every other country in the world is going into severe debt to try to survive as well.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with you that we make policy choices every day in this country that places a value on people's lives.  Ok, so now recognizing that and knowing the bold, please reflect on how those two facts can exist together.  Do you really think that EVERY country forgot the former?  Or that EVERY country fell under some mass hypnosis that suddenly caused them to act differently THIS time.  Or perhaps, just perhaps, they all came to the conclusion that the near-term actions are worth the long-term costs?  Because that's what I think is happening.  

 
I posted this previously, but IMO we can stop shelter-at-home when the following 4 conditions are met:

1. Testing is ubiquitous.  We need data to make data-driven decisions.

2. Daily new infections show a clear declining trend.

3. Hospitals can handle it.  That may mean improvement in treatments, or it may mean additional capacity. Obviously PPE in stock.

4. People can have assurances they can go about their business and not get sick.  Maybe that means masks, sanitizer everywhere, public monitoring of temperatures, ability to maintain space, etc.  That means, not everything will open.  No crowds, for example. Or, maybe there are crowds but the vulnerable population will need to be protected.

Personally, i don't see me being in a crowd until either i have recovered from COVID and therefore have some immunity or have a vaccine.   That means i won't be going to any bars, sporting events, etc probably for a couple of years.  

 
CBS Los Angeles

@CBSLA

·

20m

Essential workers will have access to state-subsidized childcare programs under an executive order signed on Saturday by Gov. Gavin Newsom.

 
CurlyNight said:
Laparoscopic procedures cancelled because the air that can escape and the aerosol effect isn't known. So procedures are going back to more invasive techniques.
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So stupid.

The entire purpose and reason these procedures are growing is because they reduce comorbidities (the definition of less invasive).  So lets stop doing them because we don't know what the aerosol effect is?  :lmao:

 
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adonis said:
Agreed.

That's why I'm curious as to the views of those who think the economy should be opened again full throttle.  Let folks decide for themselves if they're hermits for a year, or fully engaged in the workforce, or somewhere inbetween.

To me, I see one outcome of this and it's pretty terrible.  For others, I think they see a shinier outcome.  I'd be curious to hear the optimistic view.

I'm not sure there's a person out there who wouldn't prefer things to go back to normal ASAP.  But what are those costs?

I'm trying to sell a house in one city and buy another.  That was the plan.  But now...who the hell knows?  I'm in a city that relies on an industry very hard hit from this downturn.  Housing prices to plummet?  SHould we just rent in the new city?  What about our job stability, me and the wife.  3 kids in school - what about them?

Hell, I'm happy to entertain ideas about getting things back to normal soon.  I'd love it.  But tell me the price and be honest about it.
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Not sure it is an optimistic view, but one I see the public shifting too as we go on:

If 50k people need to die to save MIllions of jobs... deal.  Take it and run.  MIllions able to continue providing for their family and paying mortgages... easy call.

Take the curve and make it vertical.  Get this over with.

 
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matuski said:
Not sure it is an optimistic view, but one I see the public shifting too as we go on:

If 50k people need to die to save MIllions of jobs... deal.  Take it and run.  MIllions able to continue providing for their family and paying mortgages... easy call.

Take the curve and make it vertical.  Get this over with.
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50k? Methinks you are GREATLY underestimating here. By magnitudes.

 
So me and the GF were on House party with her BFF right now, and her BFF's brother popped in the room (we hadn't locked the room yet) and he was at an actual house party. ####### dumbasses.

Edit: this is Erie County, NY

 
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adonis said:
So Trump is setting this all up to be able to blame the scientists for the ####ty economy.

He is clearly reluctant to shut anything down in a meaningful way.  And he'll likely come out of this blaming Fauci and other scientists who admonished him to shut the economy down.

Instead of accepting responsibility, inevitably he'll point fingers of blame.
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You'd expect anything different? This is who he is; expecting responsible action on his part? It's not in his DNA.

 
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eoMMan said:
Few months? Some people in this thread are saying 6 months.
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Peter 3:20

Which sometime were disobedient, when once the longsuffering of God waited in the days of Noah, while the ark was a preparing, wherein few, that is, eight souls were saved by water.
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Speaking of Peters, I think most of the models are predicting this peters out late July/early August. Depending on containment measures and potential therapeutics, YMMV. And let's hope the virus doesn't mutate in any meaningful way. 

 
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I kept waiting for the IHME model to update. The website said today. Now that message is gone and still says last updated April 1st. Guess he didn't get his data quick enough.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Peter 3:20

Speaking of Peters, I think most of the models are predicting this peters out late July/early August. Depending on containment measures and potential therapeutics, YMMV.
Click to expand...
I've been wondering about that. I'm not as big of a math nerd as I should be. How do they decide the time period of the curve anyways?

 
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