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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
BassNBrew
Footballguy
OrtonToOlsen
Footballguy
Rolling smiley = banable
Jokes about divorce in a quarantine thread = shut down thread
Spreading misleading information about a very deadly situation = haha cool
Jokes about divorce in a quarantine thread = shut down thread
Spreading misleading information about a very deadly situation = haha cool
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Maybe Tripitup is arguing that we are living in a Shroedinger's Cat experiment and that the only reason that NYC has alot of deaths now is because we tested (i.e. looked inside the box)! Damn, if only we'd have known not to confirm all those "cases" we'd be at zero deaths now.
That's it, I'm convinced: stop testing immediately, everyone back to work, we figured it out!
Doug B
Footballguy
It’s OK to test that few for data collection purposes if the sampling is more randomized, or at least grouped more widely.
shader
Footballguy
He said it may be as much as 25%... so great, if it’s 25%, then we could factor that in.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
I tend to agree that hospitalizations, ICU cases and deaths are the most solid data points. That doesn’t mean cases are irrelevant, but they are a function of testing. I would add that discharged hospitalizations are also highly relevant as it helps portray how hospitals are faring with capacity.
TripItUp
Footballguy
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fred_1_15301
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Confirmed cases is a very important stat. It’s used in many ways. If someone says it’s meaningless, and then continues to say it’s meaningless, even when they are shown how there is value in the numbers, proves they are trolling.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
All of you are making semantics arguments. He is making good arguments but is guilty of a little hyperbole. If he said "mostly meaningless" instead of "meaningless", would that make you happy? Language debates are so dull.
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NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
he didn't, it was a joke...y'now hyperbole...reducto ad absurdum. That's why I lead my sentence with "Maybe..."
sorry if you didn't get the sarcasm. I felt it was a pretty ridiculous statement that no one could possibly read as a sincere opinion. I guess I forgot about the ridiculousness of some of the opinions in here to begin with.
carry on.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Yeah I have a broken tooth under a bridge that was occasionally giving me a lot of pain. Its not bad now, but it really worries me that its going to act up again soon. I really don't anyone's hands in my bleeding mouth now.
Doug B
Footballguy
His links only partially support his case — they just say case counts don’t support certain kinds of commonly-assumed conclusions. That’s not the same as ‘meaningless’, because at local levels there is predictive value to case counts (for instance, almost all hospitalizations will come from the set of positive cases independent of any count of uncounted no- or light-symptom carriers).
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Of course I knew you were being sarcastic. Just not sure why? BTW - I loved your post ~ 7-8? pages ago on why you are "optimistic". Maybe my favorite post of this entire thread.
shader
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
For the purposes of dealing with hospitalizations and deaths, that 25% is laid aside, anyway.
The people that could really use accurately-sampled infection estimates are a separate group from those who can really use triaged positive-test counts. Each data set informs different types of decisions.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
This is a good point.
I should probably restate my assertion to read as “mostly meaningless”
Wasn’t trying to be hyperbolic, was just using similar language to what has been used in the numerous reports I’ve read on the topic.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Otis
Footballguy
You’re missing the point then. That the testing isn’t capturing the complete and precise total amount does not make the confirmed data meaningless. Sorry.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
This is my absolute worst nightmare related to any kind of prepping activity. Under perfectly normal conditions several years ago I cracked a tooth and was in excruciating (could not sleep) pain. My only problem was I was new to my dental plan and finding a dentist, in plan (20), available for an emergency visit was impossible. Of everything I'm prepped for, I have no idea how I'd deal with a dental emergency if we were truly in a locked down (say post hurricane) situation.
the moops
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Has there been any further info on the whole shop towel masks thing? Looks like pretty much everything out there is based off of a single article about some clothing store owners setting up their own experiments and deciding shop towels are where it’s at. It kind of makes sense that it would work better than cotton, but would hate to go this route and then find out that it’s totally ineffective. But it would be nice since I happened to have a roll in the house.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
I was being sarcastic because I thought the use of the word "meaningless" required an equally hyperbolic response to demonstrate the absurdity. FWIW, I read the Nate Silver article that Trip posted earlier today and I agree with much of the specific content. I just don't agree with over-arching takeaway that cases are "meaningless" for the US. The article is worth reading but if we acknowledge that cases are not accurate because not everyone is being tested AND we assume that MORE people are being tested today than last week THEN I don't see how one can't argue that a flattening of cases is a good thing. Conversely, if cases were rising I'd agree that it would be impossible to determine how much of that rise is real vs. increased testing. So, THAT's why I and others are so staunchly defending the value of testing. Because we are seeing flattening and reading that as a positive. We know the data is highly flawed but this is a hopeful sign and the leading indicator thereof. Does that help?
Thanks for the feedback on my "optimistic view" post from several pages back. I remain hopeful and am encourage by the flattening in cases even if some of that does turn out to be a weekend artifact and they rise again tomorrow I will remain optimistic that the timing I set forth in that post for tamping this wave down remains viable.
Doug B
Footballguy
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
All masks are ineffective compared to the N95.
All masks are effective compared to nothing.
MTskibum
Footballguy
I joined this site over a decade ago and have been a lurker since then, I have not posted much on this site except for the past few months in this single thread.
I post on 2 other forums and this site was by far the most informative. In late January and through the end of February this was an extremely informative and helpful thread, possibly even the best thread on the internet that I have participated in. It was a driving factor that led me to prep in February a month ahead of everyone else which let the supply chain recover. This was excellent for me and also good for everyone else that lives around me.
Recently this thread seems to have taken a turn for the worse. There is more arguing than facts. I scroll through entire pages without seeing any new information. The thread goes extremely fast and it is possible that I am missing the good information now.
I am sorry if I am ranting, my expectations were set extremely high based on this thread a month ago and maybe I should now adjust my expectations to treat this thread like any other on the internet.
I post on 2 other forums and this site was by far the most informative. In late January and through the end of February this was an extremely informative and helpful thread, possibly even the best thread on the internet that I have participated in. It was a driving factor that led me to prep in February a month ahead of everyone else which let the supply chain recover. This was excellent for me and also good for everyone else that lives around me.
Recently this thread seems to have taken a turn for the worse. There is more arguing than facts. I scroll through entire pages without seeing any new information. The thread goes extremely fast and it is possible that I am missing the good information now.
I am sorry if I am ranting, my expectations were set extremely high based on this thread a month ago and maybe I should now adjust my expectations to treat this thread like any other on the internet.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Agreed. A better description than meaningless would be highly problematic and almost certainly misleading without consistency in application.
toshiba
Footballguy
I don’t think many will disagree with you. This thread and forum have been invaluable, but the bickering doesn’t help.
Thanks for your post
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Morton Muffley
Footballguy
MT, I couldn't agree more. Your experience both then and now mirrors my own. I tried several hours ago to raise the discourse in here to what happens next but no one took the bait. I've linked articles (Hammer and the Dance, Morningstar Long-term Impacts, McKinsey) and no one reads them...they just continue arguing whatever they (want to) believe. Indeed, I fell into this trap just now with Tripitup re: "meaningless case counts." I had read the 538 article he cited and found the contents worthwhile but the headline misleading. But rather than state that initially I chose the path of sarcasm and mockery, which I now recognize was unhelpful. In my defense, I was intending to mock the idea not the poster, but have already been shown that, in my haste to post, I failed to make that perfectly clear.
I, too, would like to see more ideas discussed and more data/articles linked. Not sure why this thread has taken the turn it has but I recall knowing more about what was going on in Italy 3 weeks ago than I know about what is happening in the US today. For example, where is the US data that shows mortality by age group? by co-morbidity? by obesity? by gender? I know I've seen some high-level data by gender, but not a data set. Am not a conspiracy theorist, but it feels to me that this data might be intentionally being withheld from us. Specifically, I fear that it confirms that young people are largely unimpacted by this disease but the authorities (understandably) don't want to let that info out for fear of the behavioral impact from those under 30. What little age data I have seen is grouped as 20-44, 45-59, 60+. As a data nerd I can smell in that categorization that someone is trying to hide something. No one puts 22 year olds in the same group as 42 year olds unless they have a motive.
Anyway, am ranting now. Thoughts? Anyone? Am I missing something? Am I crazy?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
Maricopa County in AZ breaks their data out somewhat:
https://www.maricopa.gov/5460/Coronavirus-Disease-2019
skol asylum
Footballguy
encaitar
Footballguy
I think that's exactly what he's talking about though. They break it down in 20-44 and 45-64. That's using statistics to hide something IMO.
12 people from 20-44 were hospitalized. So we can say that there is a threat to people under 30? What if everyone of those hospitalized in that age group is between 40 and 44? Then it's a useless statistic to include anyone from 20-35 in that group.
31 of the people from 45-64 were hospitalized. 7 died. How many were over 60? Most 45 year olds are relatively healthy. At least half of 60+ year olds are taking a pill for something. Why are they in the same breakdown?
How many of the hospitalized had preexisting conditions? How many of the dead? Why don't we know these things? Why don't we have accurate breakdowns for 20-30, 30-40, 40-50, etc... It wouldn't take anymore time than breaking it down the way they did? So it begs the question of why did they do it they way they did and what are they hiding?
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
You are not crazy. Of course there is an agenda. It is more of the same "noble lies" .
There is a reason you see a rush to judgment on every case of a young person where they can find a cousin that will give them a quote that says "no prior health issues."
Yes young people can get this. Young people can die. Healthy middle aged people can die too.
But nowhere near the rate of older people and diabetics, smokers, etc.
Night and day. That isnt let granny die talk. That is reality and we should be able to be adults and discuss the reality of the situation and how to best handle it.
skol asylum
Footballguy
I think that line of thinking is overly paranoid. No offense intended.
One thing sticks with me. Early on they were talking about how this virus hits mostly the elderly and those with comorbidities the hardest. Then this stat was thrown at me:
60% of Americans have one of these comorbidities. We are NOT a healthy people.
And then you hear stories of young healthy active people being taken out.
Bottom line, you can't take your safety for granted. Yes you have a lower risk the younger and healthier you are, but it's still a risk.
Myself, I'm overweight. I don't exercise. My diet is pretty suspect. I don't sleep well. I have sleep apnea. I recently started BP meds. And I have borderline high cholesterol and pre-diabetes. I'm 46 years old. I don't want this crap. I'm not sure I trust my immune system to handle it properly.
For all I know though that typical cold I had at the end of February was Covid19. No reason at all to believe so but this virus is just plain weird.
