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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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14 hours ago, jamny said:
15 hours ago, JAA said:

Am i reading this right?

 

Sweden is 59 per million

US is 39 per million

Wow - seems like proof our NPIs are working

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14 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

French news (France 2) tonight says that of the total deaths in France, approximately 75-80% of them were overweight/obese individuals.

They're finding similar numbers in Italy as well, according to the report.

For those that arent aware, being overweight in those countries isn't like here in North America...

Just curious, what do you mean by this?

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14 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

Seems like workers probably could get better hours if the choice is no workers vs workers at reduced hours.

The reason nobody would take the job right now is because it would be a pay cut. 

I dont subscribe to this philosophy

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14 hours ago, Doug B said:

Reading it right -- per Worldometers right now:

Country (Deaths/Cases, Current CFR)
--------------------------------------------

Iceland (6/1586, <0.4%)
Norway (89/5953, 1.5%)
Sweden (593/7693, 7.7%)
Denmark (203/5071, 4.0%)
Finland (34/2308, 1.4%)

NPIs work it seems

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, JAA said:

Just curious, what do you mean by this?

North americans are fat and inactive, by and large

Edited by Soulfly3
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13 hours ago, JaxBill said:

Florida new cases and deaths by day

4/3 - 1260 , 26

4/4 - 1277,  25

4/5-  805,  26

4/6 - 1279, 33

4/7 - 1118, 42

New cases kind of flattening out but deaths ticking higher.

New cases may be flattening because there isnt testing.  Without consistent and abundant testing cases are not useful except as a floor.  Hospitalizations and deaths are our best indicators to date.

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Something I havnt seen or read yet:

If you have the antibodies, can you still be a carrier and infect others?

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1 minute ago, JAA said:

I dont subscribe to this philosophy

So you think that recently unemployed people are passing on a seasonal job for less pay than staying at home for a different reason than money? 

This should be interesting. 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Bottomline for me...we’re not going to be lifting much of anything until testing increases by a factor of 10 (at least)...and not the idea that we have a test that can be administered quickly and provide results.  Having the actual execution and supply chain airtight too.

Edited by TheDirtyWord
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9 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

What is your end game expectation? Seems like you think a vaccine will save the day or something else.

I don't think a vaccine will happen in time and i think staying holed up for 18 months is dumb. 

So to me it is about making sure healthcare doesn't get overwhelmed, which is exactly what the high risk people will eventually do if they keep running out for sausage and cheese or baking soda and parchment paper. 

Excluded middle?

...

We agree about making sure vulnerable healthcare systems don't get overwhelmed.

Where we differ is in evaluating the efficacy of partial near-isolation (e.g. only certain age groups) versus wide-scale near-isolation (all age groups doing the same thing).

End-game expectation really doesn't matter this early on, IMHO -- any expectation I'd put down on paper today will get shot to heck by unforeseen, "un-model-able" near-future events. Rather than worrying about "When and how does it end?" now, I think we're still early in the data-collection/situation-monitoring stage.

We start thinking about "When and how does it end?" much further down the road when we have a better handle on population-wide case estimates and antibody testing; and when number of severe-symptom patients (those who generally get tests readily now) presenting to hospitals decreases sharply for an extended period of time

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1 hour ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/epidemiologist-coronavirus-exterminated-lockdowns-lifted/

Has this one been discussed in here? I'm seeing it making the rounds on my Facebook by justtheflubros of course :wall: 

Cards on the table: I don't want to accept information from non-traditional-media sites like that.

That sure seems to be a popular idea ... that "high risk" folks can somehow be whisked away from wider society, and then everyone else gets COVID without issue, and voila! Herd immunity!

And then you reintroduce the "high risk" folks and then ... oh yeah ... :( 

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one more Florida / South East risk: we will be entering hurricane season soon.   For the mid-west: when does flood season start?   How do we reconcile shelter-in-place with mandatory coastal evacuations?  

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3 minutes ago, moleculo said:

one more Florida / South East risk: we will be entering hurricane season soon.   For the mid-west: when does flood season start?   How do we reconcile shelter-in-place with mandatory coastal evacuations?  

There have been some minor discussions about quarantine during hurricane season will be an epic cluster-####...  almost 3 months until actual hurricane season, but man that seems like a bad scenario.

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57 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

If you are processing 20k tests a day. 11 k of which are negative. What is the protocol for those tests? 

Does that mean there are tons of people with covid like symptoms that dont have it???

What do they have then? 

 

My guess is a lot of the negatives are contact tracing. People who were in contact with a known positive and may have shown/felt the slightest of symptoms. Just crazy that people still can’t get tested.

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4 minutes ago, moleculo said:

one more Florida / South East risk: we will be entering hurricane season soon.   For the mid-west: when does flood season start?   How do we reconcile shelter-in-place with mandatory coastal evacuations?  

Have had this general thought many times.

All of us, households, cities, states, nation are fragile right now.  We're coping OK with the CV, but it leaves us vulnerable.  Other external shocks we'd normally weather without much problem will be much bigger problems than they'd normally be.

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1 minute ago, Biff84 said:
1 hour ago, parasaurolophus said:

If you are processing 20k tests a day. 11 k of which are negative. What is the protocol for those tests? 

Does that mean there are tons of people with covid like symptoms that dont have it???

What do they have then? 

 

My guess is a lot of the negatives are contact tracing. People who were in contact with a known positive and may have shown/felt the slightest of symptoms. Just crazy that people still can’t get tested.

I've always wondered how many of the negatives are faking the symptoms.  'Yes I have aches/pains' and 'Yes, my close family member has it'

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33 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:
39 minutes ago, JAA said:

Just curious, what do you mean by this?

North americans are fat and inactive, by and large

I wouldn't lump Mexicans or Canadians in with the obesity problem in the US

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33 minutes ago, JAA said:

New cases may be flattening because there isnt testing.  Without consistent and abundant testing cases are not useful except as a floor.  Hospitalizations and deaths are our best indicators to date.

Can't fault FL for testing, we have tested 139,669 people (not pending tests, but tests with results). 

Of that, 14747 positive.

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10 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Have had this general thought many times.

All of us, households, cities, states, nation are fragile right now.  We're coping OK with the CV, but it leaves us vulnerable.  Other external shocks we'd normally weather without much problem will be much bigger problems than they'd normally be.

Regarding the midwest, I worry more about it being tornado season.

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48 minutes ago, shader said:

Everything we know about the origins of the virus says those dates are wrong.  If that report is accurate, then not only are China and the WHO lying about the origins and timeline...the CDC and the USA are too.

I thought we'd gotten confirmation that the earliest identified Chinese cases were in mid-November? If these intelligence reports are true, though, China would have to be lying about how early it was a recognized (at least potential) issue within their borders. Our intelligence would be getting stuff from their internal communications, so they would have had to internally have recognized this as an "outbreak" for us to get that indication. 

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2 minutes ago, Poke_4_Life said:

I've always wondered how many of the negatives are faking the symptoms.  'Yes I have aches/pains' and 'Yes, my close family member has it'

I wouldn’t necessarily say faking it, more psychologically convinced themselves that they have the symptoms. Worry enough about it and you’ll convince yourself that you’re experiencing the symptoms. In most places thinking you have the symptoms isn’t enough or get tested but if you’re high risk or been in contact with a COVID+ person it might.

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We just found out my wife's 96 year old grandmother is in the hospital with confirmed COVID-19. She is house bound so we think one of her aides must be asymptomatic. The doctors say she's responding well to supplemental oxygen. She has a DNR, and won't be placed on a ventilator if she worsens though. Worst part though is no visitors, of course. I'm cautiously optimistic, she's beaten several bouts of illness recently. I think she has whatever it is in Keith Richards genes that has kept him alive all these years.

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9 minutes ago, the moops said:

I wouldn't lump Mexicans or Canadians in with the obesity problem in the US

Dunno about Canada but Mexico is just as bad if not worse 

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36 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Cards on the table: I don't want to accept information from non-traditional-media sites like that.

That sure seems to be a popular idea ... that "high risk" folks can somehow be whisked away from wider society, and then everyone else gets COVID without issue, and voila! Herd immunity!

And then you reintroduce the "high risk" folks and then ... oh yeah ... :( 

I really hate this idea.

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8 minutes ago, flranger said:

Can't fault FL for testing, we have tested 139,669 people (not pending tests, but tests with results). 

Of that, 14747 positive.

Yeah Florida has been testing a ton. It’s been mentioned a few times here that they are reporting a very high number of ‘unknown’ deaths currently and some have questioned if their reported deaths are accurate. I think we will find cases of underreporting and overreporting depending on the state. 

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6 minutes ago, Moe. said:

Dunno about Canada but Mexico is just as bad if not worse 

Yeah Mexico is just as bad for obesity and especially diabetes.

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1 hour ago, Trey said:

 

Long story short... I'm not a fan of coronavirus.

Same.

I just found out yesterday I am only going to get 2-3 hours with baby after the C-section and then I get kicked out of the hospital. Wife will be there 3-4 days alone. :sadbanana:

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1 hour ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Interesting. What exactly were they picking up on in early and mid November that clued them in? Did it state that anywhere? 

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14 minutes ago, Moe. said:

Dunno about Canada but Mexico is just as bad if not worse 

US has a 36.2% obesity rate (holy ####!!)

Canada 29.4%

Mexico 28.9%

 

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1 hour ago, msommer said:

I think I read somewhere that each person is tested twice, but not sure if that is counted as one or two tests

Here (state of LA) they are counted as two tests.  So there could be some duplication, but with limited testing, I'm not sure how many would be given the option of a second test. And we aren't reporting recoveries here either like some states are. I've asked our state health department about that very thing. No answer yet. 

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2 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Interesting. What exactly were they picking up on in early and mid November that clued them in? Did it state that anywhere? 

The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images.

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Just now, JbizzleMan said:

The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images.

No, I saw that, but maybe I missed something at some point. I thought Covid-19 wasn't reported until later in December in China? So I was curious what exactly they were seeing that was alerting them almost 2 months prior to that. Maybe it's classified. 

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1 hour ago, Trey said:

My personal experience with Covid-19:

Took wife to the ER on 3/22 because she was 38.5 weeks pregnant and had an on/off fever and just general "blah" feeling for a few days. Last resort because it was the last spot we wanted to go given all that was going on.

Blood test shows she has early stages of HELLP syndrome which is major red flag and essentially means baby needs to be delivered ASAP.

At the same time, the call was made to test her for COVID-19. On one hand I understand being overly cautious given the environment but on the other hand she hadn't been in contact with anyone who had traveled or been a suspected case... hell she hadn't even left the home except for a doctor's appointment for 10 days prior. 

Emergency C section where they almost didn't let me into the room because now she is a presumed case since there is a pending test out there. Hospital was making it up as they went along at this point so the "rules" were changing every time a nurse came into the room.

Post-birth: Mom goes to isolation room in delivery area. Baby goes to isolation room in the NICU. Once I leave mom, I am not allowed to go back into the room. But I'm allowed to be with baby. Again, I'm baffled at most of what is happening at this point.

Mom didn't get to meet baby until Thursday 3/26, 4 days post-birth. And that was only because both of them were discharged and we were told to "quarantine" at home.

Best part: Didn't receive COVID-19 results until Wednesday 4/1. 10 days post-test and at the 14 day mark anyway. So the test was totally worthless. (And negative obviously)

Long story short... I'm not a fan of coronavirus.

Congratulations on the new addition to the family. 

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1 minute ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

No, I saw that, but maybe I missed something at some point. I thought Covid-19 wasn't reported until later in December in China? So I was curious what exactly they were seeing that was alerting them almost 2 months prior to that. Maybe it's classified. 

I'm sure it's classified if we have an ear/eye on some health official over there discussing a situation going south.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Navin Johnson said:

:no:

Nurse I know says that common denominators in her hospital in our neck of the woods here on LI are: over 65, obesity, diabetes, and Latinos...

Edited by glock

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1 hour ago, moleculo said:

one more Florida / South East risk: we will be entering hurricane season soon.   For the mid-west: when does flood season start?   How do we reconcile shelter-in-place with mandatory coastal evacuations?  

Was just talking to my wife about this last night. Time to start planning for Hurricane season. At least with COVID, the electricity is on (lights, AC, refrigerator) and you don't have to worry about fresh water. If a major hurricane hits, it's not going to be pretty...

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41 minutes ago, Moe. said:

Dunno about Canada but Mexico is just as bad if not worse 

no one on earth is as obese as america.  no.  one.  

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Just now, DaVinci said:
1 hour ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

I don’t know how they could have known in November when patient zero didn’t go to the hospital until mid-December.

Only if a lot of dates were falsified. Really don't know what to think about that November-December 2019 time frame in Wuhan.

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4 minutes ago, Senor Schmutzig said:

Was just talking to my wife about this last night. Time to start planning for Hurricane season. At least with COVID, the electricity is on (lights, AC, refrigerator) and you don't have to worry about fresh water. If a major hurricane hits, it's not going to be pretty...

Yep, worried about hail. The last two years have been terrible--Two years ago, we were in a hotel for 42 days because of how bad our house got hit--along with multiple cars totaled.  Last year another car really damaged, our sliding glass door destroyed.  Hail sucks. 

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14 minutes ago, DA RAIDERS said:

no one on earth is as obese as america.  no.  one.  

Nairu has 61% obesity rate :excited:

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2 hours ago, Weebs210 said:

For all the people feeling depressed/stressed about the situation. Make sure to take long breaks from the news/this thread. Also, get some exercise. I'm a huge gym guy so this has been a bit rough for me. Been getting by with a pull up station, a few free weights, and a band. Been doing p90x and some yoga with the finance as well.

I drink heavily.

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2 hours ago, Weebs210 said:

For all the people feeling depressed/stressed about the situation. Make sure to take long breaks from the news/this thread. Also, get some exercise. I'm a huge gym guy so this has been a bit rough for me. Been getting by with a pull up station, a few free weights, and a band.

Is it a mariachi band?

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40 minutes ago, JbizzleMan said:

The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images.

If the contagion was big enough to be seen by satellite in November, it would have had to have started in October or September, which suggests it would have shown up worldwide earlier than late January.

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2 hours ago, Apple Jack said:

Can somebody explain to me why Wuhan would lift any restrictions? What about their environment makes it safer now to have people gathering, other than some of the people likely have immunity now by virtue of having recovered from the virus.

If China's numbers are accurate, they probably waited a bit longer than necessary to completely lift the restrictions. You don't have to wait until the virus is completely eradicated, especially if you're in an environment that has the ability to quickly identify and isolate any leftover carriers.

 

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