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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
shader
Footballguy
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Czechia is now 14 days past their plateau, and new cases are down 50% from the peak.
The USA is maybe 1 day past our plateau. I very much doubt that our caseload will be down 50% two weeks from now.
The USA is maybe 1 day past our plateau. I very much doubt that our caseload will be down 50% two weeks from now.
Nugget
Footballguy
Do you think the testing and tracking the Czech government is planning to do will fly in the US? We have more of a history of civil liberties. We can’t even get churches to close down in KS.
moleculo
Footballguy
It won't. The reason it won't is we are 50 states, each with its own peak. As NY ramps down, Florida will tamp up. And then Texas and on down the line.
Statorama
gangster
My point is that people are smart enough to distinguish what they are ingesting. You were smart enough to discern that Dr Drew was talking out of his backside.
To simply take the point that Dr Fauci is infallible is a fools errand, and is as bad as saying Dr Drew is infallible and should always be trusted. To accept Dr Faucis opinions like they are the word of God without considering even for a moment that he might be *gasp* wrong about something isn't a good fit for the intellectually curious.
You're a smart guy, and I trust in your ability to hear opinion 1 from expert A and opinion 2 from expert B and figure out for yourself which one sounds like the truth.
I'm not afraid of more information and I don't think anyone else should be either. In fact, it was misinformation from the "experts" at the CDC that put us way behind on testing in the first place. There were a lot of trusted voices that called travel bans from China racist. Don't get me started on the WHO.
My whole point isn't to ignore the data, it's that you demand all the data. Granted, it's a lot safer to say "well, Dr Fauci says we have to shut down for 14 months, I guess we have to shut down for 14 months.....and anyone that disagrees must be "anti-science"". I just think people deserve (and should demand) more.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
All I can say---
All I can say---
NotSmart
Footballguy
That is a timely quote.Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
All I can say---
I had never thought about it until now, but it also is even applicable to learning (or not) from recent history.
Statorama
gangster
Respectfully disagree. I need data from multiple sources and multiple experts. And when those experts clash, I trust my instincts as to which ones are feeding me the truth.
And I'm very proud to say that I have confidence that others on the board are smart enough to do the same.
It's super easy to just roll the dice with Dr Fauci and not do any thinking of your own. I'm just not that lazy. I demand more.
I'm not saying trust your instincts if they say go out and lick a toilet seat. I'm saying trust your instincts if something an expert says sounds like they are pulling thoughts out of their nethers and is diametrically opposed to something you heard another expert say. Trust your instincts when it comes to differing expert opinions. If one expert says we need to shutdown 14 months and another says 5 months, do some digging and follow your instincts on which opinion seems bonafide.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
That was my thought too as I watched the documentary on the Spanish Flu. SF did now what SF did then, acted before there was a case of flu (covid) there. Thought it's gone, then second wave hit them because SF let its guard down. Same will happen if anywhere opens up a little too soon.Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
All I can say---
CurlyNight
Footballguy
I think the whole hoard tp started because so many thought it's the flu. So with flu comes a lot of #2. It continues because many still think it's the flu. Plus it's flu season still on top.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Saw they are reopening Polaris in northern Minnesota on Monday because, you know, snow mobiles and four wheelers are obviously essential. 
skol asylum
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
Can we stop the flour hoarding now too?
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
-fish-
Footballguy
You have misinterpreted what you've posted. The bike shops are the first to open back up, not the last. Your own link doesn't support what you're claiming.
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CurlyNight
Footballguy
Damn. God bless them. How they can think in that situation and remain calm and all is amasing.
msommer
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
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NotSmart
Footballguy
Hold off on your spring cleaning, trash collection services are overwhelmed by rising amount of household waste
'It's just a nightmare.' Trash collectors overwhelmed by rising amount of household waste
By Matt McFarland, CNN Business
Updated 9:44 AM ET, Thu April 9, 2020
Washington, DC (CNN)Barney Shapiro, owner of Tenleytown Trash, never expected that he would turn to the Washington National Opera's costume department to design gear for his employees. But when a member of his staff heard the National Opera was sewing masks for workers on the frontlines of the coronavirus pandemic, he jumped at the chance.
Shapiro's staffers haul trash in Washington, DC, and Maryland. Like the entire waste management industry, Shapiro is trying to keep his employees healthy and safe so they can handle the massive influx of household trash that is accumulating as more Americans self-quarantine at home.
"Our residential volumes are drastically increased," Shapiro said. "People are calling in and asking for increased services. We can't do that on a short-term basis. It's just a nightmare."
Tenleytown Trash workers are wearing masks made by the Washington National Opera's costume department.
Republic Services, one of the largest waste management companies in the US, said it expects the volume of residential garbage to increase by as much as 30%. In order to redirect resources and address the growing amount of day-to-day household waste, about 50 communities nationwide have paused curbside recycling pickup and dozens have suspended yard waste collection, according to the Solid Waste Association of America. Other companies are shifting workers to residential routes and away from slower commercial routes where many of the businesses have closed.
Companies are also making contingency plans in case the residential volume becomes too great or their workers get sick.
Shapiro said one of his drivers and the colleague he rides with have both tested positive for coronavirus, as well as one of his administrative employees.
Another driver recently said he was scared to work and is staying home, according to Shapiro. And Shapiro, who employs 32 drivers, is growing concerned that more employees will want to do the same.
"I hate to say this. Those things do tend to snowball," he said. "I can't say to a driver, 'No I want you working.' Quite honestly, they're being put at risk."
David Biderman, CEO of the Solid Waste Association of North America, said the industry has seen a slight uptick in absenteeism so far. That's mostly been due to workers who have been quarantined after a potential exposure to the virus or who need to stay home because their kids are out of school. But he expects those absenteeism figures to increase, especially in areas that have yet to start to flatten the curve when it comes to new coronavirus cases and fatalities.
At Tenleytown Trash, all of Shapiro's backup drivers have been called in and he has hired an extra worker just to keep everything sanitized. Shapiro said the company's trucks are sanitized daily and cleanings at its offices have increased, too.
All of this is adding pressure to the industry when its services are needed the most.
Bill Rumpke Jr., CEO of Rumpke Waste & Recycling, has hired 36 new employees in the last week to deal with an increase in residential volume in the markets where it operates in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia.
Rumpke Waste & Recycling has hired new employees in the last week to handle a massive influx in household trash.
Rumpke said he's facing financial losses due to the dramatic drop in commercial and industrial business, but his main concern right now is keeping his employees safe and meeting the increased demand for residential waste pickups. He's prepared to suspend yard waste and bulk trash pickup if necessary.
"We've been able to stay ahead of it so far," Rumpke said. "Hopefully, we'll be able to stay on schedule."
To offset increased labor costs and declining revenue, Rumpke said the company plans to cut back on other expenses, such as a planned IT project and the purchase of new heavy equipment.
The challenge of coronavirus is unlike anything the company has faced in its 88 years of operation, Rumpke said. If there's an outbreak among its staff, the company is preparing to shift labor between its markets or to delay service.
One way Americans can help, said Biderman, is to hold off on spring cleaning and limit curbside waste.
"[Spring cleaning is] going to put additional pressure on an already pressured solid waste collection system," Biderman said. "Wait until things return to normal."
By Matt McFarland, CNN Business
Updated 9:44 AM ET, Thu April 9, 2020
Washington, DC (CNN)Barney Shapiro, owner of Tenleytown Trash, never expected that he would turn to the Washington National Opera's costume department to design gear for his employees. But when a member of his staff heard the National Opera was sewing masks for workers on the frontlines of the coronavirus pandemic, he jumped at the chance.
Shapiro's staffers haul trash in Washington, DC, and Maryland. Like the entire waste management industry, Shapiro is trying to keep his employees healthy and safe so they can handle the massive influx of household trash that is accumulating as more Americans self-quarantine at home.
"Our residential volumes are drastically increased," Shapiro said. "People are calling in and asking for increased services. We can't do that on a short-term basis. It's just a nightmare."
Tenleytown Trash workers are wearing masks made by the Washington National Opera's costume department.
Republic Services, one of the largest waste management companies in the US, said it expects the volume of residential garbage to increase by as much as 30%. In order to redirect resources and address the growing amount of day-to-day household waste, about 50 communities nationwide have paused curbside recycling pickup and dozens have suspended yard waste collection, according to the Solid Waste Association of America. Other companies are shifting workers to residential routes and away from slower commercial routes where many of the businesses have closed.
Companies are also making contingency plans in case the residential volume becomes too great or their workers get sick.
Shapiro said one of his drivers and the colleague he rides with have both tested positive for coronavirus, as well as one of his administrative employees.
Another driver recently said he was scared to work and is staying home, according to Shapiro. And Shapiro, who employs 32 drivers, is growing concerned that more employees will want to do the same.
"I hate to say this. Those things do tend to snowball," he said. "I can't say to a driver, 'No I want you working.' Quite honestly, they're being put at risk."
David Biderman, CEO of the Solid Waste Association of North America, said the industry has seen a slight uptick in absenteeism so far. That's mostly been due to workers who have been quarantined after a potential exposure to the virus or who need to stay home because their kids are out of school. But he expects those absenteeism figures to increase, especially in areas that have yet to start to flatten the curve when it comes to new coronavirus cases and fatalities.
At Tenleytown Trash, all of Shapiro's backup drivers have been called in and he has hired an extra worker just to keep everything sanitized. Shapiro said the company's trucks are sanitized daily and cleanings at its offices have increased, too.
All of this is adding pressure to the industry when its services are needed the most.
Bill Rumpke Jr., CEO of Rumpke Waste & Recycling, has hired 36 new employees in the last week to deal with an increase in residential volume in the markets where it operates in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia.
Rumpke Waste & Recycling has hired new employees in the last week to handle a massive influx in household trash.
Rumpke said he's facing financial losses due to the dramatic drop in commercial and industrial business, but his main concern right now is keeping his employees safe and meeting the increased demand for residential waste pickups. He's prepared to suspend yard waste and bulk trash pickup if necessary.
"We've been able to stay ahead of it so far," Rumpke said. "Hopefully, we'll be able to stay on schedule."
To offset increased labor costs and declining revenue, Rumpke said the company plans to cut back on other expenses, such as a planned IT project and the purchase of new heavy equipment.
The challenge of coronavirus is unlike anything the company has faced in its 88 years of operation, Rumpke said. If there's an outbreak among its staff, the company is preparing to shift labor between its markets or to delay service.
One way Americans can help, said Biderman, is to hold off on spring cleaning and limit curbside waste.
"[Spring cleaning is] going to put additional pressure on an already pressured solid waste collection system," Biderman said. "Wait until things return to normal."
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-fish-
Footballguy
Seems logical, given the respiratory component. But South Korea has some of the world's worst air pollution, and a relatively high rate of male smoking. But their death rate is relatively low.
-fish-
Footballguy
Where sanitation workers are picking up bags and stuff this seems like a major issue. Where I live, we have trash cans that are provided to us by the waste management company, so that they fit in the hydraulic lifting device on the truck. They drive up, they clamp onto the can, it empties into the truck and puts it back down (often sideways, halfway down the street or blocking the mailbox). If you have more than fits in the can, that's on you and you have to take it to the dump. They won't pick it up. Our trash company contacted us and said they won't pick up trash cans that have loose trash--it all has to be bagged. I can't really figure out the difference. The workers never get out of the truck.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Exactly. Why would anyone expect an instinctual understanding of pandemic response? This isn’t common sense. And it isn’t something epidemiologists, infectious disease experts and government officials have undertaken without considering the short and long-term economic consequences. While they certainly may revise their plans, those decisions need to be be data-driven, not emotional.
ETA I see Adonis covered it.
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NotSmart
Footballguy
Our community went to that format as well a few years ago; I'm a big fan, I like the large wheeled containers with the big flappy lid.
I suspect the trash bag requirement is intended to prevent loose trash from being spread by the wind, either when it's dumped into the truck, or when the can is placed back down, or when the truck drives down the road.
I'm sure the trash companies get tired of residents calling to complain about trash blowing around the neighborhood after trash pickup.
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
bucksoh said:
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
Did you have to write it out?Mr Anonymous said:
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
It is pretty clear that one of you is not a doctor.bucksoh said:
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
This thread is clear evidence that not everyone should trust their instincts. Some might even need a sign on the bedroom wall that reads: "First pants, THEN shoes."
Not pointing fingers.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Apologies if already posted as I haven't been keeping up with the thread the last couple of days.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-leading-cause-of-death.html
Wow. Covid-19 is now the leading daily cause of death in the US. Hopefully that sober reality will convince the remaining few who refuse to take this as seriously as it should be and want to downplay it. And this result could be even worse if we hadn't been shutting things down the last few weeks. Glad to hear glimmers of hope about a peak, just hope that peak isn't a wide plateau.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-leading-cause-of-death.html
Wow. Covid-19 is now the leading daily cause of death in the US. Hopefully that sober reality will convince the remaining few who refuse to take this as seriously as it should be and want to downplay it. And this result could be even worse if we hadn't been shutting things down the last few weeks. Glad to hear glimmers of hope about a peak, just hope that peak isn't a wide plateau.
In The Zone
Footballguy
I postponed my March trip to Charleston until the second week of September. I'm just in a wait and see how things play out mode. By then a second wave could be underway. I'm just going to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.moleculo said:
Be cooler than this. Certainly it's fair to respectfully talk about how we're responding and if it seems the response to the crisis is appropriate. But lots of people are anxious and concerned and hurting on this. Be more cool if you come back.bucksoh said:
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
moleculo
Footballguy
There are very few things I disagree with more than the above post.
The modern push to disregard expertise and data in lieu of personal "instinct" is the weirdest thing about modern America. Its really weird. There is nothing special about your instinct that allows you to know if Dr. Fauci is full or it.
I'm not saying follow him blindly. Be skeptical. Be skeptical of EVERYTHING and EVERYONE. But, if experts have data, and other experts agree that the data is legit, and the decision falls within someone's expertise, a smart man would go with it.
If one expert says 14 months and another says 5, the prudent thing to do is examine why there is a difference. What assumptions are being made, what their underlying models are, what kind of biases they may have, what the rest of the scientific community says, etc.
You claimed that trusting Fauci is lazy...i say its lazy to not trust him because your instincts say so. If you can find compelling data-driven counter arguments, that's when you can have a legitimate debate.
If we cound just trust instincts, there would be no need for science at all. If my instincts told me that if I build ccx an engine a certain way, it would work...therefore no need for research or testing. If my instincts told me I can mix two chemicals and get a particular reaction, there would be no reason to experiment. No, "trusting your instincts" is the exact opposite of science.
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top dog
Footballguy
Guys... This whole situation sucks. It is a completely new phenomenon we are all experiencing for the first time. Not everyone is going to agree with what steps our government has taken, the magnitude of this, etc. @bucksoh hit a few of my posts with a laughing emoji early on and I'll be honest, it pissed me off. It is hard for me not to be emotional when I personally know 3 people in the hospital with this. One of which is on a ventilator now. I've never known ANYONE on a vent over "the flu". Especially not someone in their early 50s. I don't agree with him that it is "the flu". He responded to one of my posts with what I first took as condescending in tone. I wanted to come at him telling him all about himself but I thought about it and thought maybe it was more of a passionate response. I asked him to clarify what he was talking about and we had a civil conversation about it and I understood where some of his frustration was coming from and understood his position a little better. I'm not calling out @bucksoh personally to point out anything he has done, but as an example of someone that I could have came at differently because of my passion in this situation and my interpretation of his responses. And don't take this post of me defending him or a agreeing with his view point.
None of us are the smartest person in the world. Lets stop acting like somehow because we are in the medical field, or know data (I'm a data analyst myself. I get data). If we can get past being passionate and STOP being snarky jerks to each other... Maybe we will learn something from the people who have a different view point.
This thread has been awesome and has helped me SO much over the past couple months. I personally don't believe this is a hoax, or conspiracy, or some made up thing. But I'm willing to listen to the people who don't agree with me. I'd hate it to just turn into a giant pissing match of people being ##### to each other. We can totally do better than that.
None of us are the smartest person in the world. Lets stop acting like somehow because we are in the medical field, or know data (I'm a data analyst myself. I get data). If we can get past being passionate and STOP being snarky jerks to each other... Maybe we will learn something from the people who have a different view point.
This thread has been awesome and has helped me SO much over the past couple months. I personally don't believe this is a hoax, or conspiracy, or some made up thing. But I'm willing to listen to the people who don't agree with me. I'd hate it to just turn into a giant pissing match of people being ##### to each other. We can totally do better than that.
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Blick
Footballguy
Politician Spock
Footballguy
It's really easy for people to conflate "instinct" with "confirmation bias".
Nobody is choosing data that supports shutting down the economy because they have a bias towards shutting down the economy. And if you think they actually do have such a bias, then you're not suffering from a conflation of "instinct" with "confirmation bias". You are suffering from
The data speaks for itself. If you want to know how dangerous the virus is, look at where it hit the hardest... New York City
Population: 8.4 million
Documented COVID-19 deaths: 6367
That is one death for every 1,319 citizens of the city.
And that is only documented deaths. And nearly half of those deaths have occurred in the last 5 days alone. And this is with mitigation efforts.
Does this virus see a difference between New York City and elsewhere. Does it say to itself, "I like Des Moines, IA better than NYC, so I won't be so bad on them". Or "Springfield [insert any state]... they're good people... I won't hurt them as much"
Our mitigation efforts are working. End them and COVID-19 will work on the rest of NYC, and the rest of the country just like it does... and it does, until we have medical advances to fight it.
That is what the data says. That is nothing to do with "confirmation bias". It is what it is.
Nobody is choosing data that supports shutting down the economy because they have a bias towards shutting down the economy. And if you think they actually do have such a bias, then you're not suffering from a conflation of "instinct" with "confirmation bias". You are suffering from
The data speaks for itself. If you want to know how dangerous the virus is, look at where it hit the hardest... New York City
Population: 8.4 million
Documented COVID-19 deaths: 6367
That is one death for every 1,319 citizens of the city.
And that is only documented deaths. And nearly half of those deaths have occurred in the last 5 days alone. And this is with mitigation efforts.
Does this virus see a difference between New York City and elsewhere. Does it say to itself, "I like Des Moines, IA better than NYC, so I won't be so bad on them". Or "Springfield [insert any state]... they're good people... I won't hurt them as much"
Our mitigation efforts are working. End them and COVID-19 will work on the rest of NYC, and the rest of the country just like it does... and it does, until we have medical advances to fight it.
That is what the data says. That is nothing to do with "confirmation bias". It is what it is.
moleculo
Footballguy
Engineer: based on my inspections and analysis, this bridge may collapse. I reccomend shutting it down for 2 weeks and repairing it.
Politician: wow, shutting the bridge down will put a real strain on our economy. Besides, this bridge had stood for 50 years already; my instincts say its good for 50 more.
Politician: wow, shutting the bridge down will put a real strain on our economy. Besides, this bridge had stood for 50 years already; my instincts say its good for 50 more.
Coach Morris Buttermaker
Footballguy
moleculo
Footballguy
And, just like that, the good @Coach Morris Buttermaker found a way to mitigate the problem. He found a way to keep the economy viable and allow let the work be completed.
To complete the analogy, I wonder if its possible for the economy to continue while the lockdown is in place? Perhaps Americans are smart and resilient enough to figure it out?
Let's hope so.
I think a ton of that will be determined by if we can overcome the condescension and snark and tribalism we seem to love. Where anything that's not my way is dismissed as stupid or naive or worse. And how we seemingly love to focus on blame instead of solutions.
I hope we can get past those things.
proteus126
Footballguy
Nicely put, although you present a very binary problem. However, your engineer above presumably has solid data that he knows how to analyze.
Also, even though in your example above the correct action (shut down for 2 weeks) will be taken, the politician does at least have to do a quick check of the risk-reward numbers. That's his job. Or is he not allowed to perform that step? Is he not allowed to ask the engineer "what does may mean"?
Hey, don't get me wrong. I'm with the general crowd that the current shutdown should be continued through the end of April. After that, I need to see a proper risk-reward analysis, supported by data that is robust. If that analysis says wait another month, I'm onboard. However, I doubt we will have enough data to justify making any choice other than to continue in shutdown as our "abundance of caution". Just a few more weeks. And a few more. And another month, we just don't know yet. Etc.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Engineer: i have never seen a bridge like this before. Have zero experience, but based on other bridges I have seen i am going to assume this bridge will collapse so all traffic should be shut down. I realize there are tons of bridges like this in other countries where the real damage to them is being caused by semi trucks and equipment haulers and the data supports that, but I just dont agree with that and hey, i am an engineer so when I say close down all traffic, even foot traffic you better listen to me!
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
It's important to understand that neither of these is a "hoarding" issue. The main reason why TP is sold out everyplace is because people are using the bathroom at home, and so they're using way more household TP than usual. Likewise, the reason why flour, yeast, and baking soda are in short supply is because a whole bunch of people decided that now would be a good time to do some baking. These are both industries that are normally very stable, predictable markets, and so they have production capacities and supply chains that are well-designed to handle stable, predictable sales. Neither is designed to accommodate the massive increases in demand that materialized out of nowhere over the course of about a week or so.
In other words, these products are scarce now because of a fundamental production issue, not because other people are panic-buying. The reason it's good to understand this is because you should't just complacently sit back and wait for the TP "hoarding" to end. This shortage isn't going to end any time soon, probably not until industrial TP manufacturers figure out a way to sell in the household market. I would not let my own stock get too low. That doesn't mean that you need to drive around town first thing every morning buying up all the TP you can. It just means not running out because you thought supply would go back to the old normal.
If I were still teaching ECON 101, this would be my new go-to example of how how the law of supply and demand -- that markets tend toward equilibrium -- doesn't mean that individual markets can't be out of equilibrium for a little while.
