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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Seemed too big of a story to be pretty much nowhere in the media.
Thanks to you and toshiba for the links.
Doug B
Footballguy
If the South Korean researchers themselves -- and not through a media intermediary -- say that "absolutely, no human can be or ever will be infected with COVID-19 twice in their lifetimes" ... that particular statement is certain to be false. Why? Because like all human traits, immune response varies markedly between humans. A very small number of people never develop effective antibodies against viruses at all. A still-small, but larger, number never develop antibodies in great numbers -- so they'll (sometimes) barely beat a given infection, but don't have enough residual antibodies (or ones long-lasting enough) to avoid re-infection by the same pathogen later.
All that said -- I think the South Korean researchers were likely speaking broadly and probably not concerned with the rare exceptions posed by congenitally immuno-compromised individuals.
Doug B
Footballguy
Mask usage here in grocery stores has been topping out at about 50% locally over the last two weekends. Often less than that (yes, I've been going more than once a week lately). This is in contrast to apparent mask usage of ~80% Easter weekend and the weekend before.
Last week on Saturday April 25th, I went to the local chain grocery in the early afternoon. When I walked in, it appeared that every customer in line for checkout was NOT wearing a mask. On my way back out maybe 40 minutes later, mask usage of the patrons seemed to have increased a good bit, maybe back to 50% again. Just so spotty.
There is an incentive for hospitals to treat patients with corona virus. I was told by a doctor where I work in Miami that the feds will pay about $130,000 per patient, on top of whatever insurance pays. I read earlier, from the CEO of Miami's large public hospital who was complaining, that it's about $103,000. And in NY, much less, in Nebraska, much more. Some of these patients can be expensive to treat, so I'm not sure that's such a good deal.
The point being that not all numbers are audited and there is potential for mistakes, fraud and misinformation. See the upward revision below in the Twitter feed of Miami's 2000 bed public Jackson Memorial Hospital, for COVID-19 patients discharged, about 3 days ago. The numbers of in-patients has plateaued, but remains high.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JacksonHealth?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
"After reviewing our internal reports, we inadvertently failed to include some of our discharges in previous updates."
TheWinz
Footballguy
That's why I asked you to assign a death rate, and you said 0.5% to 2% (a factor of 4). Now you are asking, what if the rate is between .0001% to 10% (a factor of 100,000)? That's quite a jump, don't you think? As I said, knowing the true death rate isn't that important, if it's in the ballpark of what we already think. If the rate is off by the magnitudes that you are now suggesting, then yes, we need to know.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Fyi, I think Alex is referring to the mortality rate fore someone exactly like him (i.e. age, gender, weight, underlying health status, etc.) I don't believe he is altering his previous statement about the overall mortality at all. Rather refining it for individual circumstances. You do realize that providing a range for the overall mortality doesn't mean the fatality rate for EVERY group will fall within that range, right?
TheWinz
Footballguy
I guess I am just befuddled. @lakerstan posted a link in here that said South Korean researchers working for the CDC say it's IMPOSSIBLE to be reinfected. That news is monstrous, yet almost no one in here seemed to mention it. Either:
- People didn't see it
- People don't think it's important
- People don't believe it
Which is it?
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Apple Jack
Footballguy
I had the same question yesterday. I assume you are talking about the Sky News article. It didn't say that it's impossible. It said South Korean scientists are saying all of their 277 cases were false positives. They were seeing "harmless dead traces" of the virus and thinking they were live traces.
I think the rest of the media might be waiting for the WHO to respond. I don't think they have altered their statement saying there is no evidence anywhere of immunity. Who knows, maybe they won't based on this news.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Oh, you don't have to tell me about higher risk people. I am over an overweight 50+ year old, with high cholesterol, mild diabetes, and a chain smoker with onset COPD. I've been saving up for my very own ventilator to bring with me to the hospital if/when I get it.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
You asked me the death rate. I gave you an overall average, across all age groups.
I’d like to know the death rate for my demographic, whatever that means. You appear to be looking to either argue or nitpick, and candidly, I have zero interest in that.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Yes, it did. Here is the sentence...
Researchers at the South Korean centre for disease control and prevention (CDC) now say it is impossible for the COVID-19 virus to reactivate in human bodies.
How can this sentence be interpreted any other way?
Penguin
Footballguy
I wonder if that implies just they same strain they previously had or from all strains that are out there.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Found a good explanation for the CDC "Provisional Data" that some folks are misinterpreting as the CDC "revising the death toll down".
Created a PDF that explains what the two CDC sites are, and how they are actually in sync... in fact the CDC Audit is actually moving the totals slightly UP in most cases.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/d96t2qthdhyzfc2/COVID_CDC_Data.pdf?dl=0
If anyone has any questions please fire away @ tag me. I've been too busy to keep up in here.
Cheers!
Created a PDF that explains what the two CDC sites are, and how they are actually in sync... in fact the CDC Audit is actually moving the totals slightly UP in most cases.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/d96t2qthdhyzfc2/COVID_CDC_Data.pdf?dl=0
If anyone has any questions please fire away @ tag me. I've been too busy to keep up in here.
Cheers!
The Commish
Footballguy
I was talking to a friend the other day about all these reopenings, and I realized something: I don't miss eating in a restaurant so much as I miss being able to relax and enjoy myself in a restaurant. The thought of an experience where I have to wear a mask and spend the whole time looking over my shoulder to ensure that no one is too close to me doesn't seem worth it. If that's the choice, I'd much rather eat at home.
I'd say the same thing about going out to movie theaters.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
Alex the Actuary gave a range of 0.5% to 2% that fits with normal statistical patterns. I'd interpret what he stated as being a bell curve where that range covers - we're not sure - but maybe 90 to 95% of the likely outcomes. A range of .0001% to 10% would cover more like 99 to 99.5% of the likely outcomes. I'd agree that 0.5% to 2% is a reasonable range.
--
Weekend numbers for Covid worldometers? Yet about 83,000 new cases and 3,500 deaths. Russia again with over 10,000 new cases. Larger percentage increases throughout south and central america; middle east; the old SSR countries. We'll cross a quarter million worldwide deaths (as reported) tomorrow.
Doug B
Footballguy
I don’t mean that businesses won’t comply — I meant consumers. People shopping at retail establishments. A good portion of them will have to be forced into mask usage, at least for the first few weeks or months.
And around here, there’s enough suburban poverty that the following are winning arguments:
”I can’t afford a mask”
“I can’t take time off work to get a mask”
“No stores around here have masks”.
Therefore, there will have to significant governmental push to make widespread mask usage happen. The honor system won’t be close to enough.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
I stand corrected. I think I must have processed that as they don't think it can happen. I'm not sure where their data is that it cannot, other than that they haven't seen it. Whatever the case, I am with you in your enthusiasm. I was pretty geeked when my boss shared that during happy hour on Friday.
JAA
Footballguy
bigbottom
Footballguy
Unrelated, but I’m two episodes into the Season 2 podcast of Gangster Capitalism, which centers on the NRA’s internal power struggle and financial scandals. It’s pretty fascinating.JAA said:
toshiba
Footballguy
Thoughts and prayersJAA said:
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
I'm sorry, but none of those are winning arguments. Literally anything qualifies as a mask, right? A turtleneck pulled over your nose and mouth, a paper towel, an old t-shirt, a bandanna. Heck, my brother made one from an old sock. You don't need money or time to have a mask. So, now it's up to the business owner to police their establishment. Are they willing to ask non-compliers to leave? Why wouldn't they, if they know they could be shut down.Doug B said:
I'll present you with another scenario. I am your best friend, and you invite me to your house. When I arrive, you tell me to wear a mask if I want to enter. I say no, and enter anyways. What would you do?
shader
Footballguy
Well there are only two options that I see. The antibody testing isn’t accurate, or our timelines are off by a few months.
Capella
Footballguy
Should go in the good news related to corona thread.JAA said:
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Very interesting. Basic math would suggest at least a handful of cases (at a minimum) existed outside China back in December.
TheWinz
Footballguy
If you were asked by a business owner not to enter his/her establishment, and masks were required in your area, would you comply?
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I would comply if I decided to go ahead and enter, but I would most likely choose to just leave and go somewhere else instead. I 100% respect the wishes of a private business owner to decide what they feel are the best rules for safe practices in their own establishment, but do not believe the government should make it a requirement for going out in public.
I went out to eat Friday evening and for lunch today. None of the employees were wearing masks in either establishment. I only saw 2 customers wearing masks.
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TheWinz
Footballguy
I think you misunderstood my question a bit. If, in your area, masks are required to enter any building, will you mask up to enter any of them? For example, in my area, you cannot enter any grocery store without a mask.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Ah, I withdraw my question. If masks aren't mandatory, you have every right. Enjoy, and good luck.
Sorry, I did misunderstand that. Today we tried to eat in one town only to be told there is a requirement (city government rule) to wear a mask while dining. (Not sure how I'm supposed to eat while wearing a mask). We were traveling and on the way home so we simply got back in the vehicle and drove 30 miles to the next town, which did not have a mask requirement.
The interesting part of our "story" today is that the restaurant we ate at was the same company we attempted to eat at in the first town. Simply different rules in place in that town than the first.
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fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I didn’t even realize there were restaurants in this country open for sit-down dining. Shows you how clueless I am. Enjoy the nights out and stay safe.
I'm in Oklahoma, most opened up Friday. Most are not allowing normal capacity and are officially asking customers to social distance but not really enforcing it from what I can tell.
jhib
Footballguy
Is it normal for hospitals to save blood samples for months after originally testing them?
DJackson10
Footballguy
I think my co workers and I are at a point of frustration at this point. A lot of it has to deal with customers. Today I had a guy try to buy 4 things of the TP and had to explain to him it's a limit of 1. He gives me the "oh I'm not hoarding and I've been out for this long." I wanted to tell him there's a thing called rationing. This was 1st thing in the morning before my coffee. Then I had to explain to 4 people why they can't bring 25 items in the beer/wine express line. I was by myself and because of certifications I barely got my lunch till almost 2 hours before I had to leave (on an 8 hour shift mind you) and by 3PM I had a line of almost 25 people and only myself to ring people out. This was after we made a rule of because of the extra volume of customers now you had to have alcohol in order to get in the line or we'd have a line out the door. Fortunately most of the customers getting the products were very patient and following rules. The only issue I have is with the person who wants to give you change and holds up the line dinging for it so now people have to wait longer. Or those who want to take their grand ole time being on their phones instead of taking everything out needed for their transaction Money/ID?etc which hold up the lines too.
I think the Masks are giving people issues. My mask is comfortable but when you can't get outside and take it off for a few mins and go back in it's the worst. Warmer weather today wasn't helping either as those things no matter what you wear still get hot. We are still well stocked but I feel like I'm talking to elementary school kids with some of these customers. It's amazing how dumbed down this country really is and how completely oblivious people are of their surroundings. I knew some of this already but given all this stuff with states shutting down it's become more obvious by the day.
I think the Masks are giving people issues. My mask is comfortable but when you can't get outside and take it off for a few mins and go back in it's the worst. Warmer weather today wasn't helping either as those things no matter what you wear still get hot. We are still well stocked but I feel like I'm talking to elementary school kids with some of these customers. It's amazing how dumbed down this country really is and how completely oblivious people are of their surroundings. I knew some of this already but given all this stuff with states shutting down it's become more obvious by the day.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
What about underpants? Should the government make rules (I think there called laws or something) that require citizens to cover their genitals? How about consumption of alcohol on public property? Cigarette smoking? What about my right to yell "fire" in a crowded building?
My point is, this FEELS onerous because it is new. But the government establishment of what you can and can't do on public property certainly isn't
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Good. I'd rather be comfy in my own place. People who are now struggling with money are not going to the theatre any time soon after opening. That'll probably become like where brick and mortar book stores are now, rare.IvanKaramazov said:
In The Zone
Footballguy
My wife works for a courier service and last night she got a phone call from one of her bosses offering a new route starting tomorrow. This route includes driving to two different cities and picking up Covid-19 test and driving them to MUSC in Charleston, SC 5 days a week. I'm sure this will go on for a while. She's going in this morning to negotiate wages. I told her to make sure that she ask for hazard pay.
I'm not really sure what I think about all of this though. Definitely nervous. I'm sure that I will ride with her on some of my days off.
I'm not really sure what I think about all of this though. Definitely nervous. I'm sure that I will ride with her on some of my days off.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
The cotton masks are still too warm. I'm always warm so this is tough on me. When standing out in the line I keep it off my nose. When I get in I'll wear it but if no one is around, it's off my nose. I cannot even imagine the workers who pull long shifts. The red lines on their faces looks painful. Poor things. :(
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
That isn't what the article says.TheWinz said:
Recurrent viral infections can occur by a number of mechanisms:
1. Reinfection due to an inadequate immune response to initial infection (related to viral and/or host factors, e.g. genetic susceptibility, immunosuppressive conditions or medications), or the virus evading the immune system. This would be a second infection with the same virus.
2. Reinfection due to a virus that has structurally mutated in the critical regions recognized by the first infection's antibodies. This would be a second infection due to a new strain.
3. Reinfection due to waning immunity. Antibody protection doesn't last forever, and the duration of immunity varies for different infections. This could also lead to a second infection with the original virus strain.
4. Reactivation of latent infection. Some viruses cause symptoms with initial infection, are temporarily contained by the immune system, but aren't completely killed off. A subset of viral populations hide out in areas inaccessible to the immune response. Years later they may reactivate, often when the immune system is impaired due to age, medications or concurrent medical conditions. Herpes, shingles and HIV are examples of reactivation of the original infection.
The headline of the article is deceptive, implying none of these mechanisms is possible. But the meat of the article mostly refers to mechanism #4, and alludes to #2 not being evident on genetic analysis thus far. But they don't exclude that possibility altogether:
More importantly, there's nothing in the article that says #1 & #3 are impossible. And no reputable scientist would give 100% guarantee this early in our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 virology. Unlike "hard" sciences and math, medicine is rarely so cut and dry.
FTR, based on what we know about other coronavirus infections, I expect short-term reinfection is pretty unlikely. And early in this thread there were posts explaining SARS-CoV-2 mutates less rapidly than some other viruses, including other coronaviruses and influenza. Plus we don't have clear cut evidence of anyone infected twice. So hopefully our immune response can keep it at at bay a while, at least until a vaccine is developed.
Coach Morris Buttermaker
Footballguy
This paper finds nursing home residents comprise 57% of all COVID-19 deaths in Spain, 53% in Italy, and 45% in France.
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1250759687592706050?s=20
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1250759687592706050?s=20
