*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)

[Mr Anonymous]

No, no he isn't.  #4 is off by quite a bit.

I believe he has a shot since we're in the infancy of testing people who had this in the US and around the world prior to it arriving on everyone's radar. We're just now uncovering cases in the US from December through February. Very few of those cases have been added to the official count, if any. Once all those cases are added in, it's going to have a big impact on the mortality rate. Again I believe he has a shot. Time will tell. Way too early to definitely say he can't be right about a mortality of .5% given how little testing has been done outside of those who have been hospitalized and/or came forward with symptoms.

 

[TwinTurbo]

You're death rate is way too low.  0.1% is nigh impossible and 0.5% is also on the super optimistic end.

Preliminary sample study of NYC residents showed ~20% tested positive for antibodies. There are over 8M people in NYC. If you apply the results from the sample study, that's 1.6M that would have antibodies. There are just over 18k deaths reported in NYC to date. 18k is just around 1.1% of 1.6M. And that's in the worst hit city in the country. Once you factor in the rest of the country, the actual rate will likely be lower. 

 

[Jayrod]

I believe he has a shot since we're in the infancy of testing people who had this in the US and around the world prior to it arriving on everyone's radar. We're just now uncovering cases in the US from December through February. Very few of those cases have been added to the official count if any. Once all those cases are added in, it's going to have a big impact on the mortality rate. Again I believe he has a shot. Time will tell. Way too early to definitely say he can't be right about a mortality of .5% given how little testing has been done outside of those who have been hospitalized and/or came forward with symptoms.

South Korea conducted 630,000 tests with 10,793 positives.  They tested everyone they thought had it and everyone they came in contact with.

Their death rate is over 2%.

Germany conducted 2.5 million tests with about 165,000 positives.  Their death rate is about 4-5%.  Even if the were somehow missing 500,000 positive cases, their death rate would still be substantially over 0.5%.

0.5% isn't close to the real death rate and it isn't debatable. 

 

[Jayrod]

Preliminary sample study of NYC residents showed ~20% tested positive for antibodies. There are over 8M people in NYC. If you apply the results from the sample study, that's 1.6M that would have antibodies. There are just over 18k deaths reported in NYC to date. 18k is just around 1.1% of 1.6M. And that's in the worst hit city in the country. Once you factor in the rest of the country, the actual rate will likely be lower. 

Why would death rates be worse in NYC than elsewhere?

Outside of treatment capabilities, which are fairly equal throughout the US, and previous health issues (which NYC is hardly the worst place in the US) there is no reason why someone in NYC would be more apt to die than someone in the middle of the US.

Death rates are likely over 1% which is twice 0.5%.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Why would death rates be worse in NYC than elsewhere?

Outside of treatment capabilities, which are fairly equal throughout the US, and previous health issues (which NYC is hardly the worst place in the US) there is no reason why someone in NYC would be more apt to die than someone in the middle of the US.

Death rates are likely over 1% which is twice 0.5%.

Because it's densely populated and had all the international flights coming in. Lots of elderly folks with poor underlying health conditions living in densely packed apartment buildings, which is essentially the same situation as a nursing home. If someone on your floor had covid, you probably got it, even if you only left your tiny apartment to check the mail. 

 

[shader]

I think our disagreements boil down to the following and they way you belittled and dismissed people with differing viewpoints despite many of them now appearing to have raised very valid and accurate points. You don't seem to have gone so far as to say vaccine or don't reopen but you sure as heck repeatedly made the case it was pretty hopeless without one. And you sure liked to tell others how wrong they were...

The comment above is in direct opposition to what you then say below...

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Then you started talking about how unlikely it was that there were a lot of asymptomatic people around the world and based it partially on your belief of the lies China was spouting...

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On March 22, I posted the following...

And you responded...

In retrospect it looks like nothing I said there was wrong. But thanks for telling me that I was.

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Here you are proclaming your faith in WHO and basing it on what they got from their visit to China where they were lied to...

And then when people question the info coming from WHO and China you tell everyone else that those doing the questioning are getting it from right wing sites. Yet as shown earlier it was you who "firmly believed China was lying through their teeth for weeks". I guess when you don't believe China it's valid, when others don't they're buying into right wing websites...

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Here you call people sycophants for suggesting the mortality rate might be around 1%

And then a month later you're telling everyone how you had this pegged at between .5 and 1.5%. So are you a sycophant?

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More assumptions that China was telling the truth despite them later greatly increasing their totals.

Yet here you are again mentioning about how much of a China skeptic you've been...

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Here's an interaction where TwinTurbo says he's convinced it was in Seattle in January...

Nice definitive way you dismissed TwinTurbo when it now seems very likely he was right. Again telling someone they're wrong.

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Here you are again shooting down someone (your own friend) who thinks there were many as yet detected asymptomatic cases. Turns out your friend was 100% right about there being "loads" of asymptomatic cases...

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Here you are nearly guaranteeing the failure of lockdowns and predicting we'll fail disastrously at flattening the curve...

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Here you are saying asymptomatic cases are mostly just people who haven't developed symptoms yet and telling us how we fail to understand that...

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This doesn't sound like someone who thinks we should reopen anytime soon. Nor do the 3 quotes that follow...

And here, responding to someone who doesn't want the shutdowns to drag on. Really, you can't think of many things this shutdown prevents people from doing...?

Here you are today anticipating another shutdown will be required. Does that sound like someone who has much hope for anything other than a vaccine solving this problem?

And here you say other than a vaccine the only way to eliminate it is via martial law. Does that sound like someone who thinks it's time to end shutdowns and try some less drastic measures....?

I didn't even include the interaction we had on the PSF where you rushed forward with a non-peer reviewed study that discredited hydroxychloroquine which I was able to completely invalidate within an hour by displaying the scientific fraud they committed using it on high risk patients and withholding it until the patients were in the latest stages of decline. It's funny how you disparaged others for sharing studies that were yet peer reviewed, yet couldn't wait to break that rule and share one here that fit your agenda.

back to ignore 

 

[Jayrod]

Because it's densely populated and had all the international flights coming in. Lots of elderly folks with poor underlying health conditions living in densely packed apartment buildings, which is essentially the same situation as a nursing home. If someone on your floor had covid, you probably got it, even if you only left your tiny apartment to check the mail. 

Infection rate isn't death rate.

The bolded sentence is pure conjecture. 

 

[Don't Noonan]

back to ignore 

He just owned you with your prior quotes and you are laughing and saying you will now ignore him?  At least man up and admit you were wrong.

 

[shader]

He just owned you with your prior quotes and you are laughing and saying you will now ignore him?  At least man up and admit you were wrong.

I’ve admitted that I’ve been wrong many times in this thread. We all evolve as we learn more. I’ve made errors. I’m here to discuss corona, not Mr A’s track record or how great his predictions have been. Discussion over

 

[TwinTurbo]

Infection rate isn't death rate.

The bolded sentence is pure conjecture. 

I keep an apt in NYC. It's pretty accurate. One of the saddest parts of NYC is all the aging people that live alone and have nobody. About 1 in 3 older adults live alone. New Yorkers over the age of 65 make up 13% of residents. 

 

[the rover]

He just owned you with your prior quotes and you are laughing and saying you will now ignore him?  At least man up and admit you were wrong.

This really doesn't have anything to do with a topic of conversation, does it?   Seems like a post trying to get a reaction.

What's that called again?

 

[Don't Noonan]

I’ve admitted that I’ve been wrong many times in this thread. We all evolve as we learn more. I’ve made errors. I’m here to discuss corona, not Mr A’s track record or how great his predictions have been. Discussion over

I think all of us have been wrong to some degree with regards to the coronavirus.  I certainly didn't expect it to be this dangerous.  Where I agree with Mr. A is that throughout this thread you have repeatedly laughed and dismissed at anyone who didn't share your opinion.  Even though you provide a ton of useful info in here it is very offputting.  

 

[Jayrod]

I keep an apt in NYC. It's pretty accurate. One of the saddest parts of NYC is all the aging people that live alone and have nobody. About 1 in 3 older adults live alone. New Yorkers over the age of 65 make up 13% of residents. 

Good grief.  Your personal experience is anecdotal and irrelevant to statistics across the entire city.

The entire US has 16% of its population over 65, which makes NYC younger than the rest of the US on average. 

 

[Don't Noonan]

This really doesn't have anything to do with a topic of conversation, does it?   Seems like a post trying to get a reaction.

What's that called again?

an opinion

 

[shader]

Preliminary sample study of NYC residents showed ~20% tested positive for antibodies. There are over 8M people in NYC. If you apply the results from the sample study, that's 1.6M that would have antibodies. There are just over 18k deaths reported in NYC to date. 18k is just around 1.1% of 1.6M. And that's in the worst hit city in the country. Once you factor in the rest of the country, the actual rate will likely be lower. 

The 1% isn’t a rock-solid number. We can’t use that as an established number anymore than we could use the .5% they got a week ago when they did their tests.

Unless I’ve missed it, their antibody tests haven’t been approved by the cdc, and we know that their tests are not random and are done in a way that could invite those that have been sick to get tested. 
 

The bottom line is that we really don’t know yet. We won’t get that data conclusively for awhile. But is .8% vs 1.5% vs 3% going to result in a major policy change? I doubt it.  We’ve spent a lot of time talking about a percentage that isn’t going to affect things. We know it’s far worse than the flu.  How much worse is a future discovery.  But even then, it will be an estimate. Of course, the .1% death rate for the flu is an estimate too...

 

[TwinTurbo]

Good grief.  Your personal experience is anecdotal and irrelevant to this discussion.

The entire US has 16% of its population over 65, which makes NYC younger than the rest of the US on average. 

I used math not my personal experience. NYC unfortunately had multiple introductions of the virus from Europe due to all the international flights and did not implement social distancing measures quickly enough. It is also the most densely populated city in the US with large numbers of elderly and poor underlying health conditions living in close proximity. And yet we are still probably looking at a rate close to 1% in the worst hit city in the US. 

 

[TwinTurbo]

The 1% isn’t a rock-solid number. We can’t use that as an established number anymore than we could use the .5% they got a week ago when they did their tests.

Unless I’ve missed it, their antibody tests haven’t been approved by the cdc, and we know that their tests are not random and are done in a way that could invite those that have been sick to get tested. 
 

The bottom line is that we really don’t know yet. We won’t get that data conclusively for awhile. But is .8% vs 1.5% vs 3% going to result in a major policy change? I doubt it.  We’ve spent a lot of time talking about a percentage that isn’t going to affect things. We know it’s far worse than the flu.  How much worse is a future discovery.  But even then, it will be an estimate. Of course, the .1% death rate for the flu is an estimate too...

This is true. We don't really know for certain yet and it's all just estimates. 

 

[msommer]

Did you read my original post?

I have a theory and it’s based off of existing death rates 

Yes. I answered that death rate could vary with many factors we don't know. If your contention is that weather (hotter temperatures?) changes transmisibility, take a look at Brazil, Qatar, Indonesia, UAE etc. then look closely at what is being reported about how they test, behave when reporting etc. 

That transmisibility changes death rate is an odd contention, except in that with lower transmission it is harder to overwhelm hospitals.

Finally I believe you use the word "environmental" to describe weather and possibly including pollution where as I use the word environmental to describe the environment within we deal with the virus.

 

[msommer]

Is this where I predict people (and some states) are gonna let down their guard over the next six weeks.  And then it's gonna get REALLY ugly around the Fourth of July with Corona exploding in parts of the country.

  Then Christmas and Thanksgiving is gonna be really sad, as we are still trying to stop it AND pick up the pieces as a nation.

It could be

 

[msommer]

How far apart were the crawfish?

You should rather ask how far apart (in time) the beers were  

 

[Navin Johnson]

Don't know why people keep engaging.   Every post twists facts to match his theory.   

Wait until you call him out on his fuzzy math and you get a 10-day vacation

 

[Navin Johnson]

Lol. No it’s not. We don’t know how many are infected as testing is incomplete.

If their testing is incomplete then how can you point to them as a model of how things are being done correctly?

 

[fred_1_15301]

All for firing up a gofundme for unemployed FBGs

In

 

[Coach Morris Buttermaker]

South Korea conducted 630,000 tests with 10,793 positives.  They tested everyone they thought had it and everyone they came in contact with.

Their death rate is over 2%.

Germany conducted 2.5 million tests with about 165,000 positives.  Their death rate is about 4-5%.  Even if the were somehow missing 500,000 positive cases, their death rate would still be substantially over 0.5%.

0.5% isn't close to the real death rate and it isn't debatable. 

You can't compare covid-19 test results to antibody test results. Obviously the person could have had covid-19 prior and test negative. You need to do antibody tests. So it is debatable. You are compaing apples to oranges. I think its better to base any guesstimates off the anti-body tests only.

 

[DallasDMac]

Sad to see an OK mayor have to back off mask requirements because of threats of violence, including gun violence, against store workers. It's times like these that make me think maybe we deserve every bit of misery we are experiencing right  now. It's pathetic what this country has become.

 

[[icon]]

Sigh... 

My, how this thread has gone downhill since Feb. You guys are losing your #### over a percent or two on a completely unprovable statistic at this point. Chill... it's purely a pride fight at this point and it's bringing the thread down. 
 

65,000 Americans are dead of this and that number is climbing by thousands daily.

We are experimenting with opening things up to varying degrees in varying places. Let's talk about stuff other than the same back and forth on a stat that neither side can prove 100%... and it doesn't matter. 
 

 

[[icon]]

Sad to see an OK mayor have to back off mask requirements because of threats of violence, including gun violence, against store workers. It's times like these that make me think maybe we deserve every bit of misery we are experiencing right  now. It's pathetic what this country has become.

Yep. 
 

SOME of these  "Freedom/America" anti vaccine / anti mask crowd I'm encountering in person and on social media are horrible, horrible people. Just brutally selfish and operating with terrible information and situational awareness. 

It's sad but many of them are going to die or get innocent folks killed. 

 

[[icon]]

Just read Apr 30-May 1 was the deadliest 48 hours in the US due to corona. 

Where did you hear that? Do you have a link by chance?

I'm seeing 3988 deaths in those two days, which definitely Would not be the deadliest 48 hours. 

Thanks! 

 

[The Commish]

I had to make sure I wasn't in the PSF...JFC  

You guys can't help yourselves can you?

 

[The Commish]

Sigh... 

My, how this thread has gone downhill since Feb. You guys are losing your #### over a percent or two on a completely unprovable statistic at this point. Chill... it's purely a pride fight at this point and it's bringing the thread down. 
 

65,000 Americans are dead of this and that number is climbing by thousands daily.

We are experimenting with opening things up to varying degrees in varying places. Let's talk about stuff other than the same back and forth on a stat that neither side can prove 100%... and it doesn't matter. 
 

 

This is PSF level dumb to be arguing over "who's right"...go over there and do it please.  Reality is, we aren't going to know "death rates" or "mortality rates" in any accurate fashion until we go through a couple seasons of this thing.  We don't know what we missed early and we aren't going back to dig up bodies to find out.  As a result, even if we DO go back and see that thousands more have had it than thought (antibody tests), that just distorts mortality rate even more.

 

[RCon]

The first wave of COVID lawsuits has begun.  Color me shocked that Ticketmaster is being sued for screwing over ticket buyers.  So predictable.

I had tickets to an event originally scheduled in the first half of June.  They have rescheduled to late September, and sent me an e-mail offering me a refund if I decide by June 1.  Somewhat fair, although that seems fairly early to have to make a decision for whether an event three months later will be a health risk.

 

[jamny]

Atlanta today

Please tell me that's been proven to be a video from last year. No way not a single person (maybe a bike rider I saw) is wearing a mask.

 

[jobarules]

Like I said there are millions of people willing to risk dying to go about living their lives. You can call it selfish, you can call it human nature, but no matter what once restrictions are lifted you will see more and more videos like above. It's unfair to healthcare workers

 

[jobarules]

Minorities live with death every day by living in the projects. It's sad but true. Does anyone think CV is going to scare them?

 

[lakerstan]

Outstanding news, if true.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-scientists-conclude-people-cannot-be-infected-twice-11981721

 

[JAA]

LOL I have no idea what Venmo is but I am watching a live broadcast from the local pub and they have a Venmo thing.

Sometimes a good struggle can be good. I thank you and everyone else for your offers. I may take you up on it but right now I will wait and see what happens. 

It truly is humbling to get these offers. I thank you all.

Anytime. We are all in this together. 

 

[JAA]

Yes. I answered that death rate could vary with many factors we don't know. If your contention is that weather (hotter temperatures?) changes transmisibility, take a look at Brazil, Qatar, Indonesia, UAE etc. then look closely at what is being reported about how they test, behave when reporting etc. 

That transmisibility changes death rate is an odd contention, except in that with lower transmission it is harder to overwhelm hospitals.

Finally I believe you use the word "environmental" to describe weather and possibly including pollution where as I use the word environmental to describe the environment within we deal with the virus.

I didn’t mention weather.

I'm simply asking folks to have an open mind.

My hypothesis is that transmission is significantly impacted by density and air circulation. I posted this exact hypothesis like a month ago in this forum.  

 

[parasaurolophus]

My hypothesis is that transmission is significantly impacted by density and air circulation. I posted this exact hypothesis like a month ago in this forum.  

Its as good as any other out there. 

 

[Sammy3469]

Minorities live with death every day by living in the projects. It's sad but true. Does anyone think CV is going to scare them?

There have been many tropes put forth in this thread, but this one takes the cake for ignorance.  Of course it scares them.  

 

[the moops]

Like I said there are millions of people willing to risk dying to go about living their lives.

Yes there are. But there are also many millions more who are not willing, yet they have no say if the millions are doing whatever the #### they want and spreading this thing around

 

[TheWinz]

Outstanding news, if true.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-scientists-conclude-people-cannot-be-infected-twice-11981721

Here is a line directly from that article...

"Researchers at the South Korean centre for disease control and prevention (CDC) now say it is impossible for the COVID-19 virus to reactivate in human bodies."

It boggles my mind that we still have to say, "if true".  Pay me big bucks as a recovered volunteer, and you can do whatever you want to me.  With so much research already done, this question should've been answered already.

 

[jobarules]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/03/crowds-gather-to-buy-new-air-jordan-sneakers-in-atlanta-after-lockdown-lifted/

Gotta get those new kicks

 

[jobarules]

Yes there are. But there are also many millions more who are not willing, yet they have no say if the millions are doing whatever the #### they want and spreading this thing around

Of course they do. They can stay home. The people who get stuck in the crossfire are the health care workers. 

 

[the moops]

Of course they do. They can stay home.

Not if they have to go to work or get groceries

 

[Slapdash]

Please tell me that's been proven to be a video from last year. No way not a single person (maybe a bike rider I saw) is wearing a mask.

I'd love to have been caught by fake news there, but it appears the video is from a local to Atlanta news producer.

 

[Soulfly3]

From France:

As I mentioned weeks back about believing my wife and I both MAY have contracted covid back in December while in France and Spain (having basically all the symptoms)... Doctors in France are now saying they have in fact traced the virus back to December in patients in some the country ( per BFM News)

(again, im not saying we DID have it, I have no idea... but we genuinely have given it strong thought based on what we experienced... very well could have just been a serious flu bug)

 

[CurlyNight]

Still no unemployment. I have started to try to sell stuff.

You should start a go fund me. 

 

[Jayrod]

Death rates are absolutely critical to all decisions that are being made and are likely the most important thing to know about this virus.  It directly effects what we do, when we do it and how we do it.

We can't "know" what the number is for sure, but we can sure make an educated guess.  Acting like it is a pointless argument while two people in here are declaring some certainty at it being somewhere between "0.1% and 0.5%" is simply not true, because it will effect people's behavior.

The bottom line is that we really don’t know yet. We won’t get that data conclusively for awhile. But is .8% vs 1.5% vs 3% going to result in a major policy change? I doubt it.  We’ve spent a lot of time talking about a percentage that isn’t going to affect things. We know it’s far worse than the flu.  How much worse is a future discovery.  But even then, it will be an estimate. Of course, the .1% death rate for the flu is an estimate too...

As far as the bolded, absolutely yes it will make a difference.

The powers that be are in a struggle between the economic risks of shutdowns and the healthcare risks of allowing society to interact and spread the disease.  It is an imaginary graph of lives ruined and risked from economic factors vs lives risked from the virus.  If 70% of our population eventually get the virus, 0.1% is about 230,000 deaths.

Again, it is the most relevant number in this whole discussion and worth calling out when people are stating that their poorly rationalized numbers are correct.

 

[bostonfred]

Movie theaters opening in Texas

I think it's too early for this, and that this is practically an unethical experiment on human subjects to see how well these new rules work.  

But

Interesting to see how they're planning to approach this. Plexiglass between seats.  Temperature checks.  Asking people if anyone in their family has been sick in the last 14 days. This may be the model for the rest of the country soon. 

 

[Coach Morris Buttermaker]

I didn’t mention weather.

I'm simply asking folks to have an open mind.

My hypothesis is that transmission is significantly impacted by density and air circulation. I posted this exact hypothesis like a month ago in this forum.  

Agree. My best guess is this virus is almost impossible to spread outside in warm temperatures unless you are touching someone, or literally sneezing in someone's face.