*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

[Mr Anonymous]

Even if there were cases in December or January, it doesn't get where he wants to go.   His whole point is to try to claim its just a flu, and if we increase the infection rate and lower the mortality rate then it's been a giant overreaction.   This ignores the actual number of deaths and number of hospitalizations, which has nothing to do with rates.   The number of deaths is disproportional to the flu.   It's disproportional to other years.   The premise is wrong and continues to be wrong.  

Categorically false accusation and the trolling manner which you continue to try and assign a different meaning to what I say should be handled by the mods. I have said repeatedly that this is far more dangerous than the flu due to how easily it spreads and thus it's ability to overwhelm the hospital system.

 

[[scooter]]

What planet am I living on?

https://www.ktnv.com/13-investigates/earlier-coronavirus-timeline-confirmed-in-wake-of-13-investigation

Someone please explain an alternate meaning to the bolded and especially the underlined below...

Within just two days of our story airing, the Nevada Health Response team confirmed what the people we spoke to suspected. That they got sick here in Las Vegas in December and January, and the illness was COVID-19.

Now I may be crazy but I believe what the government authorized health authority of Nevada tasked with tracking Covid-19 cases and deaths, is saying is that people got sick here in Las Vegas in December and January, and the illness was Covid-19. Or are they saying that people got sick here in Las Vegas in December and January and the illness was Covid-19?

You are quoting the reporter (in bold), not the NHRT.

However, when the reporter actually quotes the NHRT statement, the statement does not make a reference to December or January.

Basically, one of two things has happened here:

1. the reporter saw the NHRT's statement ("there were earlier cases") and assumed that it was a reference to December or January.

or

2. the NHRT did indeed confirm that there were cases in December or January, but the reporter did not bother to include that quote in her story.

 

[Slapdash]

Texas just topped 1,000 new cases for the third straight day. Bad timing on opening things up, and I don't think it will end well. Our behavior won't change. The only time we venture out if for groceries. We'll stay the course.

When you strip out the NYC area, the US is still on an upwards trend in terms of hospitalizations and deaths.

 

[Slapdash]

Atlanta today

 

[Terminalxylem]

I think we can say with near 100% certainty that there is some type of short term immunity. I don't know a single virus that doesn't have some type of short term immunity

Know any rabies survivors? We don't do so well with HIV, hemorrhagic fevers or Hepatitis C either. And there are a bunch of examples of incomplete immunity - many URIs, herpesviruses, norovirus, etc...

Don't get me wrong, I think short-term reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 is unlikely, at least until it mutates in a meaningful way.

 

[Ksquared]

We got it, you will be dissected, ridiculed, and basically told to "shut the bleep up" if you do not follow the prevailing opinions.  Which of course are fact....how many times so far has the conventional wisdom based on facts has proven to wrong or clearly misguided.

Some in here sure seem to have an agenda.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Simply no words left. The news reporter did her own investigation and tracked down people around the country who were in Vegas in Dec and Jan and later tested positive for Covid-19 when tested back in their home states. The reporter then shared her investigation with the state health authority who is tracking Covid-19 cases and deaths. They confirmed the accuracy of what she uncovered by indicating that yes those people who fell ill during or soon after their stay were indeed Covid-19 cases from Dec and Jan in Las Vegas. That's stated clear as friggin' day. All that's missing is how the Nevada Health Authority was able to verify her claim - a detail I stated very clearly earlier. I don't know how they can confirm what the reporter discovered BUT THEY DID. Considering it's part of their job in this crisis, I imagine they tracked those same individuals down as well. I'll also reiterate something I posted earlier - when the Nevada Health Authority later shares their investigation, as I anxiously await, I'll share it so everyone can understand how they were able to confirm the newswoman's report.

 

[[scooter]]

Simply no words left. The news reporter did her own investigation and tracked down people around the country who were in Vegas in Dec and Jan and later tested positive for Covid-19 when tested back in their home states. The reporter then shared her investigation with the state health authority who is tracking Covid-19 cases and deaths. They confirmed the accuracy of what she uncovered by indicating that yes those people who fell ill during or soon after their stay were indeed Covid-19 cases from Dec and Jan in Las Vegas. That's stated clear as friggin' day. All that's missing is how the Nevada Health Authority was able to verify her claim - a detail I stated very clearly earlier. I don't know how they can confirm what the reporter discovered BUT THEY DID. Considering it's part of their job in this crisis, I imagine they tracked those same individuals down as well. I'll also reiterate something I posted earlier - when the Nevada Health Authority later shares their investigation, as I anxiously await, I'll share it so everyone can understand how they were able to confirm the newswoman's report.

Why didn't she include a quote from the NHRT which referenced December or January?

edit: I shouldn't have asked "Why?" because it just invites a trollish non-answer, so I'll change my response:

She did not include a quote from the NHRT which referenced December or January. That makes for sloppy reporting at best, and false reporting at worst.

 

[Ksquared]

Mr A, give it up.  Your not allowed to bring anything in this thread anymore that threatens the positions that some have clearly made.  They will kill you with a thousand cuts.

 

[prosopis]

I just got word that family members on the other side of the country have the Covid. Ages 80,81,50's with downs syndrome. All three are staying home and communicating with doctor remotely. I have been told all three are pretty sick but not check into hospital sick. Hoping for the best, these are pretty good human beings here and I have many fond memories of them.

Scary times and #### me

 

[Mr Anonymous]

We got it, you will be dissected, ridiculed, and basically told to "shut the bleep up" if you do not follow the prevailing opinions.  Which of course are fact....how many times so far has the conventional wisdom based on facts has proven to wrong or clearly misguided.

Some in here sure seem to have an agenda.

It's even more shocking at this point since most of what people like myself, you, @parasaurolophus, @Pipes, @Blick, @jamny, @Statorama, @Grace Under Pressure, @Possum, and others have posted has turned out to be quite true. None of the people I just listed have been "itsjustaflu" people. We were the ones saying the virus was here much earlier than we had been told, that there were better measures long term than simple shutdowns, that a vaccine wasn't required to end our home confinement, that masks would be a useful weapon, that the number of people who had the virus without issue was far greater than estimated, that there were drugs that were helping with this virus when administered in a timely fashion, and that we still had to exercise caution as we reopen. Each and every one of those stances has been damn near spot on. All of the above were vigorously challenged at some point - even the extent of how useful masks would be. Yet here we are today, knowing what we now know, and we're the crazy ones.

 

[Terminalxylem]

It's even more shocking at this point since most of what people like myself, you, @parasaurolophus, @Pipes, @Blick, @jamny, @Statorama, @Grace Under Pressure, @Possum, and others have posted has turned out to be quite true. None of the people I just listed have been "itsjustaflu" people. We were the ones saying the virus was here much earlier than we had been told, that there were better measures long term than simple shutdowns, that a vaccine wasn't required to end our home confinement, that masks would be a useful weapon, that the number of people who had the virus without issue was far greater than estimated, that there were drugs that were helping with this virus when administered in a timely fashion, and that we still had to exercise caution as we reopen. Each and every one of those stances has been damn near spot on. All of the above were vigorously challenged at some point - even the extent of how useful masks would be. Yet here we are today, knowing what we now know, and we're the crazy ones.

Can you clarify your positions for me?

All I can recall is you support early use of hydroxychloroquine, remdesivir for hospitalized patients and believe COVID-19 was in the US since ~last Fall. And measured reopening of businesses should occur.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I'm not picking sides here, but the reporter did some pretty sloppy work.

She stated that the Nevada Health Response team "confirmed" a specific claim (that people got COVID "in December")....but then she cites a quote which does not actually confirm that specific claim (it only says "we know there were earlier cases").

Now, perhaps the NHRT provided her with an additional quote which did confirm the December claim -- but if that's the case, then she should have included that quote in her report.

Exactly.  Lazy reporting - or inaccurate reporting.  If the NHRT really believes that people got COVID in Dec, that’s a huge story and should be clarified, validated, confirmed......pick whatever word you like best.

 

[bcat01]

We are probably getting into "political" territory here, so I'll leave this as my last comment...we were told this can't be hidden and shouldn't be a concern.

They won't be able to hide it if hospitals start filling up.

 

[shader]

Mr A, give it up.  Your not allowed to bring anything in this thread anymore that threatens the positions that some have clearly made.  They will kill you with a thousand cuts.

No one here has a position, we just demand evidence higher than a local Nevada reporter to overturn the timeline. Covid being here in December doesn’t jive with what the medical authorities tell us. 

 

[PIK95]

Is this where I predict people (and some states) are gonna let down their guard over the next six weeks.  And then it's gonna get REALLY ugly around the Fourth of July with Corona exploding in parts of the country.

  Then Christmas and Thanksgiving is gonna be really sad, as we are still trying to stop it AND pick up the pieces as a nation.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Simply no words left. The news reporter did her own investigation and tracked down people around the country who were in Vegas in Dec and Jan and later tested positive for Covid-19 when tested back in their home states. The reporter then shared her investigation with the state health authority who is tracking Covid-19 cases and deaths. They confirmed the accuracy of what she uncovered by indicating that yes those people who fell ill during or soon after their stay were indeed Covid-19 cases from Dec and Jan in Las Vegas. That's stated clear as friggin' day. All that's missing is how the Nevada Health Authority was able to verify her claim - a detail I stated very clearly earlier. I don't know how they can confirm what the reporter discovered BUT THEY DID. Considering it's part of their job in this crisis, I imagine they tracked those same individuals down as well. I'll also reiterate something I posted earlier - when the Nevada Health Authority later shares their investigation, as I anxiously await, I'll share it so everyone can understand how they were able to confirm the newswoman's report.

Scooter explains my issue with the reporter better than I was able to.

My apologies for calling you out.  Looking back it appeared I was personalizing it, which wasn’t at all my intent.  I continue to appreciate the links and articles you share on this board.

 

[shader]

Atlanta today

Not good. 2k new cases combined today and yesterday

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Can you clarify your positions for me?

All I can recall is you support early use of hydroxychloroquine, remdesivir for hospitalized patients and believe COVID-19 was in the US since ~last Fall. And measured reopening of businesses should occur.

That's pretty accurate save for I've only been willing to go so far as to say that it's been in the US as early as December. Something later acknowledged as a suspicion by Governor Newsom of California. I also previously stated that I believed it began in China in November not December as they claim. And that opinion was backed by a 60 Minutes Australia segment I linked. I told a story of two clients and their experiences at 4 different Las Vegas emergency rooms in January and indicated that I shared their belief that it was Covid-19. I also spent a morning at the outset of the shutdowns in mid March sharing a couple dozen Amazon links to masks since I believed they were a useful tool and that they might be required at some point. I stated that shutdowns of a limited duration made sense but that states should reopen where hospitals were not overwhelmed but with precautionary measures in place. I never once said this was the flu or said we should simply reopen everything in a free-for-all manner without safety measures and guidelines. I have statistically compared it to the flu in a few different contexts, just as doctors and experts continue to do, while cautioning that it is far more dangerous that the flu due to it's ability to spread far more rapidly and extensively and in turn quickly overrun hospitals.

 

[shader]

It's even more shocking at this point since most of what people like myself, you, @parasaurolophus, @Pipes, @Blick, @jamny, @Statorama, @Grace Under Pressure, @Possum, and others have posted has turned out to be quite true. None of the people I just listed have been "itsjustaflu" people. We were the ones saying the virus was here much earlier than we had been told, that there were better measures long term than simple shutdowns, that a vaccine wasn't required to end our home confinement, that masks would be a useful weapon, that the number of people who had the virus without issue was far greater than estimated, that there were drugs that were helping with this virus when administered in a timely fashion, and that we still had to exercise caution as we reopen. Each and every one of those stances has been damn near spot on. All of the above were vigorously challenged at some point - even the extent of how useful masks would be. Yet here we are today, knowing what we now know, and we're the crazy ones.

Your stance that there are better measures than simple shutdowns is spot on? I totally disagree.  We didn’t go far enough with the shutdown and will pay the price in a few months, imo.

The drug you’ve spent the most time arguing for is the drug Trump touted. Now your position has suddenly changed to all drugs?

Everyone on the planet thinks we should exercise caution when we reopen.

Everyone also knew there were more cases than  reported. But the test you touted the most was the Stanford test that many ridiculed, and that put the cfr in the flu range.  A range that the New York testing is showing to be inaccurate.

There’s no need to try to scoreboard your previous positions.  It shows that being right seems more important to you than discussing covid 19. 

 

[bcat01]

Went out today to get vegetables for the garden and there were people everywhere.  The good thing was that about 80% had masks on and were keeping their distance.  

 

[Ksquared]

Went out today to get vegetables for the garden and there were people everywhere.  The good thing was that about 80% had masks on and were keeping their distance.  

This will not happen everywhere (there are always dimwits), but I envision that this will be the new normal of the places that successfully open up without a major spike.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Went out today to get vegetables for the garden and there were people everywhere.  The good thing was that about 80% had masks on and were keeping their distance.  

Went out for a long walk and a long run today.  Probably 5x to 10x as many people as normal out there today.  Crazy nice weather here - so everyone is outside.  Lots of masks on people.  Not everyone (I don’t wear one when walking or running, but I’m also more than happy to get the hell out of everyone’s way), but probably 60-70% of folks had masks.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Went out for a long walk and a long run today.  Probably 5x to 10x as many people as normal out there today.  Crazy nice weather here - so everyone is outside.  Lots of masks on people.  Not everyone (I don’t wear one when walking or running, but I’m also more than happy to get the hell out of everyone’s way), but probably 60-70% of folks had masks.

I ran alone in the morning, and walked with my wife in the afternoon.  Today was a windy day where I live, so there weren't as many people out as the temperature and sunshine would have suggested, but there were still quite a few folks on our local bike/pedestrian trail.  Literally nobody wears masks when outdoors, me included -- you're just not around people for long enough to infect anyone, and also the wind.

I've made a special point to get out and walk around the neighborhood at least once a day while I'm working from home, and I've encountered a fairly large and diverse group of coworkers while doing so.  On Thursday, I actually managed to put out two different fires thanks to bumping into the right random people who I needed to talk to anyway.  Good times.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Your stance that there are better measures than simple shutdowns is spot on? I totally disagree.  We didn’t go far enough with the shutdown and will pay the price in a few months, imo.

Shutdowns were not needed in places with zero deaths and empty hospitals. Much simpler measures such as masks and social distancing have proven effective as indicated by the fact people aren't dying in mass quantities from frequent packing of grocery and hardware stores. Shutdowns were needed in localized areas where hospital capacity was challenged and should have been lifted when the curve was flattened in those places as was the original stated goal.

The drug you’ve spent the most time arguing for the drug Trump touted. Now your position has suddenly changed to all drugs?

You shared a study that was quickly tabbed as "scientific fraud" when you attempted to dispute the effectiveness of Hydroxychloroquine. Would you like me to share that interaction we had on that?

Everyone on the planet thinks we should exercise caution when we reopen.

You were the one saying we shouldn't reopen until there's a vaccine. Remember that? At one point you vociferously scoffed at any notion of reopening anytime soon.

Everyone also knew there were more cases than  reported. But the test you touted the most was the Stanford test that many ridiculed, and that put the cfr in the flu range.  A range that the New York testing is showing to be inaccurate.

You said it was "impossible" that we had cases before the official first case reported in Washington in mid January.

There’s no need to try to scoreboard your previous positions.  It shows that being right seems more important to you than discussing covid 19. 

It became somewhat of a scoreboard practice when people like yourself kept telling myself and others how wrong we were when in actuality we've been near spot on about everything we were saying. All this while being ridiculed for weeks.

So yeah, there's all that.

 

[shader]

So yeah, there's all that.

So much of that is totally false.  As an example, I have never once said we shouldn’t reopen until there is a vaccine.

I have no idea what  Hydroxychloroquine Study you’re talking about.  All I’ve ever been is skeptical of any drug until I see proof that it works.  If I ever linked an article that turned out to be false, my apologies. 
 

I agree that I felt it wasn’t possible for there to be cases here before mid-January, but I also don’t agree you’ve proven anything there either. I’ll stick with the CDC and the WHO until they change their tune. 

 

[Mongidig]

You can do foursomes if it's all people from one household.  Otherwise it's twos.  The proclamation refers to another document, which refers to guidelines put in place by the Golf Alliance of Washington.   At this point, it looks like no carts unless you're disabled, but that may open up.   

My tee time is at Gold Mountain on the Olympic course.  One of the most brutal to walk.   

Why no golf carts? I live in AZ and they still allow one to a golf cart. They say they sanitize them between rounds. I would also wipe it down as well. Are carts really that dangerous? 

BTW...I looked into a push cart but the good ones are out of stock. I looked on Ebay and carts that list at 200 are going anywhere from 4-6 hundred dollars. I tried walking with my bag but it killed my back. I'm taking a cart next time. If it's properly wiped down I should be good.

 

[NutterButter]

What u guys talking about in here?

 

[the rover]

Why no golf carts? I live in AZ and they still allow one to a golf cart. They say they sanitize them between rounds. I would also wipe it down as well. Are carts really that dangerous? 

BTW...I looked into a push cart but the good ones are out of stock. I looked on Ebay and carts that list at 200 are going anywhere from 4-6 hundred dollars. I tried walking with my bag but it killed my back. I'm taking a cart next time. If it's properly wiped down I should be good.

You're not 6 feet away from someone else in a cart, and there aren't enough carts to let everyone ride single.  If you aren't disabled, you don't get to ride for now unless you own your own cart.

 

[trader jake]

The US is doing a pretty job testing, actually.  But ramping up from here is tough.  There was a NYT pod this week about testing.  There are shortages all along the supply chain.  

Agreed on the last part (and have listened to the pod mentioned - The Daily has been a great source of information during this), but the US is NOT doing a good job with testing.  At all.  It's embarrassing how poor the country has done with testing.  The resulting holes in information due to that relative lack of testing is keeping decision makers in the dark more than they should be.

 

[TheWinz]

My county - New London
Cases - 623/265,206 = 0.23%
Current Hospitalizations - 33/265,206 = 0.01%
Deaths - 43/265,206 = 0.02%

My state - Connecticut
Cases - 29,287/3,590,886 = 0.82%
Current Hospitalizations - 1,551/3,590,886 = 0.04%
Deaths - 2,436/3,590,886 = 0.07%

My country - USA
Cases - 1,159,430/330,684,677 = 0.35%
Current Hospitalizations - UNK/330,684,677 = UNK
Deaths - 67,391/330,684,677 = 0.02%

Although I live in one of the hardest hit & smallest states, you can see the rates are closer to the US average in my county.  Built-in social distancing & limited public transportation could play a bigger part in the spread than we are counting.  Also, I think our low county case count is probably closer to the USA average, but testing on the eastern border of CT has been quite low.

 

[Apple Jack]

I ran alone in the morning, and walked with my wife in the afternoon.  Today was a windy day where I live, so there weren't as many people out as the temperature and sunshine would have suggested, but there were still quite a few folks on our local bike/pedestrian trail.  Literally nobody wears masks when outdoors, me included -- you're just not around people for long enough to infect anyone, and also the wind.

I've made a special point to get out and walk around the neighborhood at least once a day while I'm working from home, and I've encountered a fairly large and diverse group of coworkers while doing so.  On Thursday, I actually managed to put out two different fires thanks to bumping into the right random people who I needed to talk to anyway.  Good times.

You have coworkers in your neighborhood?

 

[tri-man 47]

As others noted, the trends are still not good ...and now we've got more and more people out and about.  Covid worldometers shows over 83,000 new cases and over 5,200 deaths, consistent with the numbers of the last several days.  U.S almost 30,000 new cases and almost 1,700 deaths.  Almost 10,000 new cases in Russia, which I believe is their biggest one day reporting so far.  Brazil "only" reporting 4,500 new cases, but an earlier link in this thread to what's going on down there was alarming.  New cases at or well above 10% in several African countries, which means their counts will double each week or even sooner.  I really worry where they'll be in a month or two, given the lack of support resources in a number of those countries. 

 

[beer 30]

What u guys talking about in here?

Bikes 

 

[Slapdash]

You have coworkers in your neighborhood?

I'm more impressed the Dakotas even have neighborhoods.  

 

[CR69]

Still no unemployment. I have started to try to sell stuff.

PM me your Venmo name too. Hell, post it on here publicly. We got you
 

Really sorry to hear you’re struggling GB

 

[Jayrod]

I was looking into death rates earlier today and it seems alarming.

First of all, the experts have nothing firm on this.  They are having to make a lot of assumptions to come up with anything they can hang their hat on. Best guesses seem to be around 1%.

But even one of the most effective countries at combating the virus, South Korea, has a confirmed 2.65% death rate among closes cases.  Out of Germany's closed cases, 5% resulted in deaths, and out of all active cases, 7% are critical.  Unless South Korea has only captured half of the people who recovered, the death rate is easily over 1%.

Anyway, I'm not sure what the true number is, but to hope it is as low as 0.5% seems like a fool's errand. It is at least 1% by all objective measurements and possibly higher.

 

[prosopis]

PM me your Venmo name too. Hell, post it on here publicly. We got you
 

Really sorry to hear you’re struggling GB

LOL I have no idea what Venmo is but I am watching a live broadcast from the local pub and they have a Venmo thing.

Sometimes a good struggle can be good. I thank you and everyone else for your offers. I may take you up on it but right now I will wait and see what happens. 

It truly is humbling to get these offers. I thank you all.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

So much of that is totally false.  As an example, I have never once said we shouldn’t reopen until there is a vaccine.

I have no idea what  Hydroxychloroquine Study you’re talking about.  All I’ve ever been is skeptical of any drug until I see proof that it works.  If I ever linked an article that turned out to be false, my apologies. 
 

I agree that I felt it wasn’t possible for there to be cases here before mid-January, but I also don’t agree you’ve proven anything there either. I’ll stick with the CDC and the WHO until they change their tune. 

I think our disagreements boil down to the following and they way you belittled and dismissed people with differing viewpoints despite many of them now appearing to have raised very valid and accurate points. You don't seem to have gone so far as to say vaccine or don't reopen but you sure as heck repeatedly made the case it was pretty hopeless without one. And you sure liked to tell others how wrong they were...

That was definitely what got my attention.  But I firmly believed China was lying through their teeth for weeks. When the WHO released their 40-page report, that’s when the alarm bells really went off for me

The comment above is in direct opposition to what you then say below...

I guess that's always possible.  But I haven't seen anything outside of China that sheds doubt on the info they gathered.

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Then you started talking about how unlikely it was that there were a lot of asymptomatic people around the world and based it partially on your belief of the lies China was spouting...

No, yours are based on your gut feel.  My guesses are based on what’s happened around the world. The assumption that most people are asymptomatic wasn’t true in China and South Korea.   As proof of that, both of those countries halted the virus. They could not have halted the virus had there been a huge number of asymptomatic people.

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On March 22, I posted the following...

False. The word was finally getting out in early January about what was rampant in China and had been for some time. Huge, canyon-sized difference. And with how contagious this thing is, it would be foolish to think it wasn't spread widely in the US by that point.

And you responded...

Almost everything you wrote here is wrong.

In retrospect it looks like nothing I said there was wrong. But thanks for telling me that I was.

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Here you are proclaming your faith in WHO and basing it on what they got from their visit to China where they were lied to...

The WHO has been all over this since they flew to China and saw what was happening first hand. They warned the USA (and everybody) far in advance of the USA doing anything about it.  The USA did not listen. 
 

I get that you have some weird dislike of the WHO but they’ve sounded all the alarms here and provided great info that would have helped countries (had those countries read the info)

And then when people question the info coming from WHO and China you tell everyone else that those doing the questioning are getting it from right wing sites. Yet as shown earlier it was you who "firmly believed China was lying through their teeth for weeks". I guess when you don't believe China it's valid, when others don't they're buying into right wing websites...

Just so you all know, the WHO/China thing is a political thing being pushed on right wing sites today. This isn’t a political thread, so please keep your partisan talking points to the other forum.  This forum isn’t one where we can discuss who is at fault for where we stand.

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Here you call people sycophants for suggesting the mortality rate might be around 1%

He's been focused on that, without evidence, for 3-4 weeks in here.  This isn't new for tonydead. Once Trump said it would end up under 1 percent, a mob of sycophants now are convinced the mortality rate is 1% or sub 1% despite any evidence of that.

And then a month later you're telling everyone how you had this pegged at between .5 and 1.5%. So are you a sycophant?

.5% to 1.5% was the range I used.  That seems to fit with all the data we have.  If the data points us to this killing at the same rate as the flu, that would change my opinion.

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More assumptions that China was telling the truth despite them later greatly increasing their totals.

The WHO has been all over this thing for the past two months. What else did you want them to do?  There’s still no proof that China’s numbers are fake.  China did have an outbreak and did bring it under control. If the USA had listened to the WHO in late February and shut everything down then, we’d be in much better shape now.  
 

Yet here you are again mentioning about how much of a China skeptic you've been...

Great question.  To be honest, I was the biggest China skeptic of all.  If you read the first 20 pages of this thread, you'll see many posts where I slam China numbers, disparage them for being inaccurate and question what the reality of this virus is.  In fact, I update numbers every night, and I don't include the numbers from China.  The reason my numbers don't include China (all the main number counting websites INCLUDING the John Hopkins website DO include China) is because I didn't believe them.

All that changed when the WHO went to China and opened their doors.  Their "scientific backing" of the numbers changed my tune.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

The above has been my definitive "bible" regarding this virus.  Once I read it, I was astounded at how detailed it was. 

This was released on Feb 24th I think.  It was released at a time when China was on the backside of their epidemic.  In the 5-6 weeks since that time, everything that we've seen points to China having gotten past the problem.  So if they had a problem, and they defeated the problem, shouldn't we listen to them?

Then when you read the experts, they always talk about China and what China did.  The NYT has frequently had podcasts where experts discuss the quarantine methods that China used and talk about why they were successful.

I am 100% convinced that China knew within a 95% =/- ratio exactly how many cases they had, because they defeated the virus in a MUCH quicker way than any other country has.  

So were they lying in the info they released to the rest of the world?  Possibly.  But why?  And why are their numbers used by so many scientists?

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Here's an interaction where TwinTurbo says he's convinced it was in Seattle in January...

I'm convinced there were many people that had it here in early Jan, especially in the Seattle area. 

But you’re wrong

Nice definitive way you dismissed TwinTurbo when it now seems very likely he was right. Again telling someone they're wrong.

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Here you are again shooting down someone (your own friend) who thinks there were many as yet detected asymptomatic cases. Turns out your friend was 100% right about there being "loads" of asymptomatic cases...

Was just talking to a friend who is convinced this is no big deal and that there are loads of asymptomatic cases everywhere.  Trying to get through to him was impossible, even though he has no stats he can rely on for his beliefs..  Basically, if someone wants to believe something, they will.

The bad thing about this particular belief though, is that it's going to keep people from quarantining.  Fortunately for him, he's cautious by nature.  But others that share his beliefs aren't so cautious.  

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Here you are nearly guaranteeing the failure of lockdowns and predicting we'll fail disastrously at flattening the curve...

Blick, kudos to you for following the rules.  Unforgivably there is no “plan”. It’s being handled at the mayor/governor level.  The federal government hasn’t done anything other than make recommendations.

Other countries have strict lockdowns.  The USA does not. If you live in NYC, a hotbed, you can go to the airport and fly anywhere across the country.  You can get in your car and go anywhere.

Same thing with NO, Detroit, Seattle, LA, etc.

Theres absolutely zero proof that these half measures will work.  Logically they will slow down the spread, but it’s an almost 100% guarantee that they won’t stop the spread.  And there’s a really good chance that the “flatten the curve” model will fail disastrously.

The best news would have been if the rumored federal lockdown/quarantine 12 days ago would have been true.  We’d be in great shape right now if it had been implemented and an Easter timeframe would have been possible for a limited re-opening.

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Here you are saying asymptomatic cases are mostly just people who haven't developed symptoms yet and telling us how we fail to understand that...

And according to the article, the reason they think that is:

"What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said.

I think many (not you, bradyfan) fail to understand that the reason 50% of the cases have no symptoms, is usually because they are still in the incubation stage and haven't developed them yet.  That's just the way the numbers work.

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This doesn't sound like someone who thinks we should reopen anytime soon. Nor do the 3 quotes that follow...

It's called a vaccine, and it likely will come in a year.  I'm sure in the meantime, we'll learn things that will help us treat people better...but I think that getting PPE equipment, ventilators, following social distancing guidelines, and staying in our homes will have a bigger impact.

And here, responding to someone who doesn't want the shutdowns to drag on. Really, you can't think of many things this shutdown prevents people from doing...?

What is it that you'd like to do, that you currently cannot, due to covid-19?

Here you are today anticipating another shutdown will be required. Does that sound like someone who has much hope for anything other than a vaccine solving this problem?

All states are unique.  We are different than other states in many ways.

First we weren’t an early hotspot.  We had the virus, but we’ve never had a major outbreak or any hospital issues.

So the social distancing was done in a state that had relatively few cases.

But, our lockdown was a joke anyway. At any point in time I could go get food anywhere I wanted (takeout)...our fast food lines have never stopped.  

But most people did follow orders for a few weeks.  It seems as the weather got nice 2 weeks ago, people started doing things.  Traffic was up, people are out, etc.

I feel like right now the virus is slowly in a growth pattern again, and as more and more people let loose, it will start to climb more rapidly. 

The sad reality is that there are probably more cases now in TN than when the lockdown began. So I feel 95% sure we will have a second lockdown coming within 1-2 months.

And here you say other than a vaccine the only way to eliminate it is via martial law. Does that sound like someone who thinks it's time to end shutdowns and try some less drastic measures....?

The worst kept secret that everyone knows, it’s here to stay. It’s about managing it until a vaccine.  There’s virtually no way to eliminate it, outside of martial law.

I didn't even include the interaction we had on the PSF where you rushed forward with a non-peer reviewed study that discredited hydroxychloroquine which I was able to completely invalidate within an hour by displaying the scientific fraud they committed using it on high risk patients and withholding it until the patients were in the latest stages of decline. It's funny how you disparaged others for sharing studies that were yet peer reviewed, yet couldn't wait to break that rule and share one here that fit your agenda.

 

[CR69]

LOL I have no idea what Venmo is but I am watching a live broadcast from the local pub and they have a Venmo thing.

Sometimes a good struggle can be good. I thank you and everyone else for your offers. I may take you up on it but right now I will wait and see what happens. 

It truly is humbling to get these offers. I thank you all.

Mainly just a PayPal alternative. That works too though. 

Let us help before things get too bad. I’ve had some rough times in life and understand what it’s like. Absolutely no shame in accepting help from others, especially during a time like this. 

 

[[icon]]

Can someone explain why all the deniers are sharing  CDC links that show a seriously reduced number of fatalities? 

Do we have a walking dead situation here?   Sorry been a a distanced crawfish boil all day and I'm behind in here 

 

[Battersbox]

Mainly just a PayPal alternative. That works too though. 

Let us help before things get too bad. I’ve had some rough times in life and understand what it’s like. Absolutely no shame in accepting help from others, especially during a time like this. 

I would also be happy to PayPal, if you decide to go that route. Stay strong sir, this too shall pass.

 

[Capella]

All for firing up a gofundme for unemployed FBGs

 

[krista4]

LOL I have no idea what Venmo is but I am watching a live broadcast from the local pub and they have a Venmo thing.

Sometimes a good struggle can be good. I thank you and everyone else for your offers. I may take you up on it but right now I will wait and see what happens. 

It truly is humbling to get these offers. I thank you all.

Add me to the list of those happy to help.  No shame, my friend.  It's what we're here for.  You're a hugely valuable member of this community.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

All for firing up a gofundme for unemployed FBGs

I'd be happy to contribute and by the looks of things so would many others.

 

[[icon]]

Can someone explain why all the deniers are sharing  CDC links that show a seriously reduced number of fatalities? 

Do we have a walking dead situation here?   Sorry been a a distanced crawfish boil all day and I'm behind in here 

Sorry if it's been covered but what's the deal with the totals differences in these two CDC pages? 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

I prob should go back and hippie 

 

[TwinTurbo]

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Here's an interaction where TwinTurbo says he's convinced it was in Seattle in January...

Nice definitive way you dismissed TwinTurbo when it now seems very likely he was right. Again telling someone they're wrong.

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Here you are again shooting down someone (your own friend) who thinks there were many as yet detected asymptomatic cases. Turns out your friend was 100% right about there being "loads" of asymptomatic cases...

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Here are my conclusions to date based on my own research

1. This originated in China in Nov and was probably in the US by late Dec/early Jan, particularly in the Seattle area.

2. The real number of cases to date in the US is 10x than what is currently confirmed. So 300,000 instead of 30,000 as of today. 

3. Over 30% of cases are asymptomatic. They show no symptoms, don't get sick, but can spread it. 

4. The real mortality rate is between .1 - .5%. Worse than the flu but considerably less than what is feared if the asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases are several times higher than the number of currently reported cases.

I think our government officials are taking the right approach and that this will peak in 4 weeks and drop off within 8 weeks which will also coincide with warmer weather. 

I reserve the right to be wrong about all of these things, but I think we have many reasons to be optimistic. Italy's numbers just took a positive turn today as well. 

Complete agree @Mr Anonymous. Here's what I posted back on 3/22. I still reserve the right to be wrong, but pretty much everything was right so far. 

 

[the rover]

All for firing up a gofundme for unemployed FBGs

I will contribute to any FBG that needs help as long as they aren't spreading science-denying lies.

 

[Jayrod]

Complete agree @Mr Anonymous. Here's what I posted back on 3/22. I still reserve the right to be wrong, but pretty much everything was right so far. 

You're death rate is way too low.  0.1% is nigh impossible and 0.5% is also on the super optimistic end.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Complete agree @Mr Anonymous. Here's what I posted back on 3/22. I still reserve the right to be wrong, but pretty much everything was right so far. 

On 3/22....

Here are my conclusions to date based on my own research

1. This originated in China in Nov and was probably in the US by late Dec/early Jan, particularly in the Seattle area.

2. The real number of cases to date in the US is 10x than what is currently confirmed. So 300,000 instead of 30,000 as of today. 

3. Over 30% of cases are asymptomatic. They show no symptoms, don't get sick, but can spread it. 

4. The real mortality rate is between .1 - .5%. Worse than the flu but considerably less than what is feared if the asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases are several times higher than the number of currently reported cases.

I think our government officials are taking the right approach and that this will peak in 4 weeks and drop off within 8 weeks which will also coincide with warmer weather. 

I reserve the right to be wrong about all of these things, but I think we have many reasons to be optimistic. Italy's numbers just took a positive turn today as well. 

You appear to be correct on each and every one of these and the only one really still in doubt is the mortality rate but that's trending in the right direction for you. It's a shame that you were dismissed so flippantly.