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My point was the overwhelming majority of middle to upper middle class families do not live with grandparents, and your number of around 20% verifies that. We have to assume most of those 20% come from lower income families, making the 20% even lower for families with higher incomes. It's just common sense.
That may be accurate in general. It isn’t for me, but clearly is for some.
A large segment of the population is either elderly, has a preexisting medical condition(s) which increases their mortality risk from COVID-19, and/or lives with someone in one of the first two groups. They can’t all avoid human interaction indefinitely.
My stats are for everyone, as I’m not writing off large swaths of the population.Your stats are for the older generations, I assume? I found these numbers from 2014, for people aged 1 thru 44:
10 leading causes of death
1) Unintentional injury - 47,937
2) Suicide - 18,782
3) Cancer - 17,633
4) Heart disease - 15,002
5) Homicide - 11,534
6) Liver disease - 3,337
7) Diabetes - 2,919
Stroke - 2,622
9) Influenza and pneumonia - 2,080
10) Birth defects - 1,961
According to the CDC, there have been 2,426 deaths in 2020 due to COVID for people under 45, as of just a few days ago. But if you break it down further...
Under 1 year old - 5 COVID deaths = No way 5 deaths makes the top 10 list
Ages 1 thru 4 - 3 COVID deaths = No way 3 deaths makes the top 10 list
Ages 5 thru 14 - 13 COVID deaths = No way 13 deaths makes the top 10 list
Ages 15 thru 24 - 116 COVID deaths = Still nowhere near the top, but perhaps top 10 now
Ages 25 thru 34 - 640 COVID deaths = Again, not close to the top, but surely in the top 10
Ages 35 thru 44 - 1,649 COVID deaths = Not only top 10, but likely pushing top 5
So yeah, COVID will be a leading cause of death in 2020, but not necessarily for all age groups. It preys on the elderly, not the younger generations.
I think he was talking about PEOPLEYour stats are for the older generations, I assume? I found these numbers from 2014, for people aged 1 thru 44:
10 leading causes of death
1) Unintentional injury - 47,937
2) Suicide - 18,782
3) Cancer - 17,633
4) Heart disease - 15,002
5) Homicide - 11,534
6) Liver disease - 3,337
7) Diabetes - 2,919
9) Influenza and pneumonia - 2,080
10) Birth defects - 1,961
According to the CDC, there have been 2,426 deaths in 2020 due to COVID for people under 45, as of just a few days ago. But if you break it down further...
Under 1 year old - 5 COVID deaths = No way 5 deaths makes the top 10 list
Ages 1 thru 4 - 3 COVID deaths = No way 3 deaths makes the top 10 list
Ages 5 thru 14 - 13 COVID deaths = No way 13 deaths makes the top 10 list
Ages 15 thru 24 - 116 COVID deaths = Still nowhere near the top, but perhaps top 10 now
Ages 25 thru 34 - 640 COVID deaths = Again, not close to the top, but surely in the top 10
Ages 35 thru 44 - 1,649 COVID deaths = Not only top 10, but likely pushing top 5
So yeah, COVID will be a leading cause of death in 2020, but not necessarily for all age groups. It preys on the elderly, not the younger generations.
Was just putting it into perspective a bit. If you see above, suicide was the #2 killer of people under 45. Babies are part of that group, but I highly doubt we are having a baby suicide epidemic.
Yup. Any business that is told to shut their doors a second time and does not comply, who exactly will enforce it? No one, nada, zip, zilch. With all that's going on right now, I could probably open a brothel next to my local church, and the local cops would be afraid to come bust me.
Our police enforce our rules and have been this whole time. Though, we've not been "shut down" like a lot of the country has. But I expect them to keep enforcing the rules until we are at the "there are no rules" phase which is just around the corner.
I agree that's the mentality now but I can't imagine the same being the case if we have an explosion of cases this Fall/Winter and we see huge outbreaks in schools. And I'm not predicting that will happen - I have no clue - but I imagine politicians will have to react if it gets bad enough.The Commish said:
There is only 1 way we are shutting back down - if the virus starts killing younger people at a higher rate than it is right now. If COVID took the lives of every single person over 80 who contracted it, we would still not shut back down.
I'm good with more things opening slowly but the problem I always have with someone saying the bolded is that's like 50% of the population - it's virtually impossible to SIP 50% of us.Gustavo Fring said:
I find that impossible to believe - I guess anything is possible but that would mean we are far beyond what happened months ago and we shut down then. At some point people will realize the economy will get devastated either way if that happens.
I think we wouldn't budge for 100 over 80 and 50% over 65.
I'll agree that part was poorly worded. I don't think the at risk need to completely shelter in place, but I do think the at risk population needs to take extra precautions. I'm mostly for re-opening so small businesses do not continue to struggle, but everyone will need to exercise some caution to a degree, which I think we have (for the most part) been doing a good job of already through social distancing measures. I just think we can get back to a somewhat normal now that a lot of the population is in a habit of knowing when and how to social distance themselves in certain settings.
The problem I have is the other 50% either live with, or come in contact with, someone elderly or at risk. Therefore, every single person on the planet needs to SIP.
As I said to shader, you guys have more faith in our politicians than I do. That is NOT a bad thing by the way. I wish I could view them that way.
That seems high. Would depend on your definition of elderly. The only person in that category for me has been locked away like a criminal. Imagine she'll die of lonliness soon. So it's not like some of that demographic hasn't been locked away
I'm not sure if we are saying the same thing or not - I'm just saying, you can't really SIP 50% of us so we can't tell at-risk people to SIP. Unless we change the definition of at-risk to just be those who are high on the at-risk scale.
You speak for 50 governors and thousands of mayors, I see. What do you predict they do when nurses and doctors are dying and hospitals are overrun?
Well, I can't say I've ever been accused of that. Lol. I think I'm just pointing out that I don't think someone can say it's impossible and we won't. If I had given you a list of things five years ago that has happened in 2020, I think you would have said there's no way those things will happen.As I said to shader, you guys have more faith in our politicians than I do. That is NOT a bad thing by the way. I wish I could view them that way.
Oh, I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm saying they won't do it....I just don't see it. They may target specific groups (and yes, I will point out the irony over and over again when they do), but I don't see them going further than that, especially here in Florida. I mean, we continue to go up in all the problem areas, according to the "guidelines" and we haven't even flinched at reopening. What's "meaningful" has changed about 50 times in the last three months.
Your last point ignores the problem. Those younger people will be getting infected and then spreading the virus exponentially to others including those 75 year olds.TheWinz said:
Username seems to fit the attitude of this post.Gustavo Fring said:
oofDon't Noonan said:
Are we assuming that the other age range deaths remain as they are now? Even so, I still just find it hard to imagine 6-8 M people die and we just go on business as usual.
I'd say there's a greater than 90% chance of a very bad fall/winter. I would not want to need a hospital with the double whammy of flu and covid.
I think so too but then the question is what is "very bad" to you vs. "very bad" to others. I mean, culdeus thinks we could have several million people die and we will just go on as usual. I won't say he's wrong - maybe I'll be surprised but I'm guessing very bad for some folks is that younger people start dying in higher numbers.
What if hospital workers en masse say screw it and refuse to show up for work unless there's a heavy shutdown effort? I can seriously see that happening. You can only push people so far and many healthcare workers are still reeling from the first wave. What happens when the second wave is worse, combined with flu?
Interesting. What actions have you seen taken that make you think that? We seem to be done with quarantine. Look at the 1918 flu. That next winter was devastating compared to the first round. We better have a vaccine in early 2020 because it's not looking good.
Let people die. This isn't hard. Make your bed and lie in it something something personal responsibility.
We've learned a lot. Distancing and masks make a big difference. Age and health play a huge role in hospitalizations and deaths. More people will get the regular flu vaccine than ever before. I hope you're right.
It's very possible that you're right. I hope you aren't.
Any idea how it's spreading and how much is due to more testing? Deaths have flattened but haven't gone done per the moving average I saw yesterday.
