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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (19 Viewers)

JaxBill said:
Pretty balanced piece about Covid hospitalizations in Orlando. Cases are up, hospitalizations are rising but they still have room and ICU is a last resort. Patients are younger, cases generally aren't as severe and treatment has improved. 

Orlando Sentinel
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Link is not correct

 
JaxBill said:
Pretty balanced piece about Covid hospitalizations in Orlando. Cases are up, hospitalizations are rising but they still have room and ICU is a last resort. Patients are younger, cases generally aren't as severe and treatment has improved. 

Orlando Sentinel
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Was this the link you were wanting to share?

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-orlando-hospitalizations-masking-policies-20200622-mg6obdwj6japlm2fsauqxwvvey-story.html

I think this area is probably doing as best as it can for the time being.  Disney isn't open yet though and hotels aren't anywhere close to allowed capacity.  Beaches are generally light on traffic during the week, packed on the weekends. MOST of the state's cases have been south florida, so central florida is one of those areas that hasn't really been an issue until now...it's going up.  Hopefully people start listening and doing the needful.  Some days I think we get it, others not so much.  That's not going to get it.

 
The Commish said:
Was this the link you were wanting to share?

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-orlando-hospitalizations-masking-policies-20200622-mg6obdwj6japlm2fsauqxwvvey-story.html

I think this area is probably doing as best as it can for the time being.  Disney isn't open yet though and hotels aren't anywhere close to allowed capacity.  Beaches are generally light on traffic during the week, packed on the weekends. MOST of the state's cases have been south florida, so central florida is one of those areas that hasn't really been an issue until now...it's going up.  Hopefully people start listening and doing the needful.  Some days I think we get it, others not so much.  That's not going to get it.
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yes. I thought some of the quotes and info were interesting.

................

In a shift from the beginning of the pandemic, when most of the hospitalized patients were in their 70s and 80s, patients now are in their 40s and 50s.

Local hospitals say that they still have enough capacity, and they’ve learned how to better manage COVID-19 .

Unlike the early days, ventilators are not the first line of treatment for the majority of the patients. As a result, fewer patients are being admitted to the ICU. Also, over time, treatments like convalescent plasma therapy and antiviral drug remdesivier have proven effective in fighting the disease, resulting in better outcomes for patients.

“We’ve learned a lot,” said Dr. Sean Benoit, chief medical officer at Central Florida Regional Hospital. “I think had these numbers occurred in the very beginning, it would have been more alarming. It still is alarming. We are paying attention to our numbers, our PPE and what we have.”

Benoit added that “the number of cases we’ve seen increasing certainly is real. It’s not just increased testing. It certainly increased hospitalization of COVID patients as well,” he said.

AdventHealth and Orlando Health, the two major health systems in Central Florida, are keeping a close eye on their numbers.

“We are watching trends carefully. … While our inpatient COVID numbers are rising, the severity of the cases aren’t as significant as when we first began treating COVID-19 patients,” AdventHealth officials said in an email.

Orlando Health officials said that they’ve seen a steady increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations, mirroring the increasing number of cases in the community since mid-May.

“This second wave of patients has not demonstrated the level of severity and mortality that we saw with the first wave -- 8% are being managed in an ICU, and only 5% are requiring a ventilator,” they said in an email. “Although patient characteristics such as age and comorbidities may play a role, the differences in first and second wave outcomes are likely attributable to more effective clinical care, including respiratory management and use of emerging therapies such as Remdesivir and convalescent plasma.”

 
Had a doctor that wanted to come into my office to discuss his account yesterday.  I had to tell him to stay in his car and we would speak at 6 feet.  Not sure what type of doctor, he could have been a doctor of civil engineering.

 
JaxBill said:
yes. I thought some of the quotes and info were interesting.

................

In a shift from the beginning of the pandemic, when most of the hospitalized patients were in their 70s and 80s, patients now are in their 40s and 50s.

Local hospitals say that they still have enough capacity, and they’ve learned how to better manage COVID-19 .

Unlike the early days, ventilators are not the first line of treatment for the majority of the patients. As a result, fewer patients are being admitted to the ICU. Also, over time, treatments like convalescent plasma therapy and antiviral drug remdesivier have proven effective in fighting the disease, resulting in better outcomes for patients.

“We’ve learned a lot,” said Dr. Sean Benoit, chief medical officer at Central Florida Regional Hospital. “I think had these numbers occurred in the very beginning, it would have been more alarming. It still is alarming. We are paying attention to our numbers, our PPE and what we have.”

Benoit added that “the number of cases we’ve seen increasing certainly is real. It’s not just increased testing. It certainly increased hospitalization of COVID patients as well,” he said.

AdventHealth and Orlando Health, the two major health systems in Central Florida, are keeping a close eye on their numbers.

“We are watching trends carefully. … While our inpatient COVID numbers are rising, the severity of the cases aren’t as significant as when we first began treating COVID-19 patients,” AdventHealth officials said in an email.

Orlando Health officials said that they’ve seen a steady increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations, mirroring the increasing number of cases in the community since mid-May.

“This second wave of patients has not demonstrated the level of severity and mortality that we saw with the first wave -- 8% are being managed in an ICU, and only 5% are requiring a ventilator,” they said in an email. “Although patient characteristics such as age and comorbidities may play a role, the differences in first and second wave outcomes are likely attributable to more effective clinical care, including respiratory management and use of emerging therapies such as Remdesivir and convalescent plasma.”
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Yeah, I'm given a little bit of hope in that we know more about it now than we did months ago.  That might give us a fighting chance to process people faster, but there will always be a capacity and if we as citizens don't take care to keep ourselves out of the hospitals to avoid capacity, it's going to be a problem.  We may know exactly what to do, but overwhelmed in the execution phase and that leaves us in the a situation as if we had no real idea how to treat things.  

 
Today is likely to produce some huge numbers in the states getting hit hard now. Results typically lag over the weekends, so I’d expect 4000+ in AZ and 5000+ in FL.

 
pollardsvision said:
We've had a state mask ordinance (VA) for a month or so, but anecdotally, home improvement and hardware stores have very few people wearing them compared to grocery stores. Maybe 10% wear them at Lowe's/Home Depot, and it's more like 75% at grocery stores. 
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If it's mandatory, why isn't it 100%? Lack of enforcement?

Maryland has done well with mask adoption indoors.  I think the case rates reflect that.

 
Slapdash said:
There are two people who work on my team who say this all the time.  I always thought it was because they are non-native english speakers....but maybe they have picked it up at this company like Commish  :oldunsure:  
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Are they from India? It seems to be a popular saying among Indian's I know.

 
Biff84 said:
Today is likely to produce some huge numbers in the states getting hit hard now. Results typically lag over the weekends, so I’d expect 4000+ in AZ and 5000+ in FL.
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Unfortunately, I think you a right.  Numbers yesterday were really bad especially given it was reporting for Sunday which is typically a low day.   Think people will be surprised how high they will be but I hope I am wrong.   

 
Slapdash said:
There are two people who work on my team who say this all the time.  I always thought it was because they are non-native english speakers....but maybe they have picked it up at this company like Commish  :oldunsure:  
Click to expand...
I thought it was exclusively a phrase non-native English speakers from India used. 

 
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The Z Machine said:
If it's mandatory, why isn't it 100%? Lack of enforcement?

Maryland has done well with mask adoption indoors.  I think the case rates reflect that.
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It's tricky in a lot of areas. Masks have become a sensitive topic, and asking businesses to enforce is not ideal in a lot of areas. They just can't risk alienating so many people. 

In areas where the overwhelming majority of customers wear masks and expect others to do so, it's simpler. 

As with a lot of strategies in this, barring a massive government enforcement policy, it's pretty much left up to the general public.

 
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Slapdash said:
I just find the phrase really weird. Congrats on the last part.
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Really?  I've heard it my whole life...maybe it's an Asheville thing?  Clearly it's triggering you intolerant heathens.  I'll refrain from using it again.  Yeah, started at Principal (officially) yesterday.  I made it through the divestiture!!  

 
After trending down for the last three weeks (topping out around 600 in late May and dropping to 322 on June 21), MN hospitalization numbers have ticked back up the last two days (from 322 to 339). The number of confirmed cases in MN has been decreasing over the last three weeks despite increased testing, so hopefully the increase in hospitalizations is just a blip. 

ETA Link

 
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3591 new cases in AZ with 42 deaths. Records for acute COVID beds, ventilators and ICU beds continue to be pushed higher. Numbers are still trending very much on the young side with about 65% of new positives being 45 or younger.
 

The next few weeks will tell us a lot about the virus. We’ll see how many of these younger cases convert to hospitalizations, how many spread it to high risk and if the death rate for those ages remain low. The high percentage of young cases are hopefully a good sign for overall outcomes as long as they stay consistent with historical outcomes.

 
https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1275425753908289536?s=20

This tweet thread of graphs doesn't show a lot of reasons for the level of worry some are experiencing. There is an uptick in some categories, and it's higher in some spots than others, but since we seem to have stabilized the elderly and especially nursing home deaths, this isn't the concern it once was. I'm still fine with some worry about things changing by the 4th, considering what has transpired the last couple of weeks, but if we don't see any major change in these sorts of graphs, I think the only real worry will come in the fall, if then.

 
Biff84 said:
3591 new cases in AZ with 42 deaths. Records for acute COVID beds, ventilators and ICU beds continue to be pushed higher. Numbers are still trending very much on the young side with about 65% of new positives being 45 or younger.
 

The next few weeks will tell us a lot about the virus. We’ll see how many of these younger cases convert to hospitalizations, how many spread it to high risk and if the death rate for those ages remain low. The high percentage of young cases are hopefully a good sign for overall outcomes as long as they stay consistent with historical outcomes.
Click to expand...
we don't have any other sample of younger infected?  Seems we would know by now.

 
Connecticut stats...

- Under 2% positivity 6 straight days.  During this stretch, the rate has been 1.39%, 
- 140 hospitalized.  That's only 7% of the high water mark (1972) on 22 Apr.  Basically, we have been cutting our hospitalizations in half about every 2 weeks.
- 59 deaths in last 7 days.  Last time numbers were this low was when the outbreak began.

Coincidentally, there is only one business in CT that has remain closed, and does not have an open date... BARS

 
jplvr said:
https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1275425753908289536?s=20

This tweet thread of graphs doesn't show a lot of reasons for the level of worry some are experiencing. There is an uptick in some categories, and it's higher in some spots than others, but since we seem to have stabilized the elderly and especially nursing home deaths, this isn't the concern it once was. I'm still fine with some worry about things changing by the 4th, considering what has transpired the last couple of weeks, but if we don't see any major change in these sorts of graphs, I think the only real worry will come in the fall, if then.
Click to expand...
Interesting. Hospitalizations and deaths are certainly the key metrics. "Cases" is way too broad, especially at the national level.

NY state is testing around 60K per day. The % positive is roughly 1%. After hospitalizations and deaths, the % positive is a key metric to follow IF enough testing is being done.

The graph quoted and several other data points seem to be pointing to some intriguing insights, but I don't want to speculate. 

 
TheWinz said:
Connecticut stats...

- Under 2% positivity 6 straight days.  During this stretch, the rate has been 1.39%, 
- 140 hospitalized.  That's only 7% of the high water mark (1972) on 22 Apr.  Basically, we have been cutting our hospitalizations in half about every 2 weeks.
- 59 deaths in last 7 days.  Last time numbers were this low was when the outbreak began.

Coincidentally, there is only one business in CT that has remain closed, and does not have an open date... BARS
Click to expand...
Yup. Not to harp on the point, and as I've said while making this point multiple times I loathe to pick on a particular industry, but bars should not be open. Not safe, not smart.

 
Biff84 said:
3591 new cases in AZ with 42 deaths. Records for acute COVID beds, ventilators and ICU beds continue to be pushed higher. Numbers are still trending very much on the young side with about 65% of new positives being 45 or younger.
 

The next few weeks will tell us a lot about the virus. We’ll see how many of these younger cases convert to hospitalizations, how many spread it to high risk and if the death rate for those ages remain low. The high percentage of young cases are hopefully a good sign for overall outcomes as long as they stay consistent with historical outcomes.
Click to expand...
As time goes on, I think we will see the average age of death due to COVID decrease.  But it won't be because the virus has gotten deadlier to the younger generations.  It will be because it ravaged the older community so hard, no one is left.  Sounds morbid, but you can't kill someone that's already dead.

 
jplvr said:
https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1275425753908289536?s=20

This tweet thread of graphs doesn't show a lot of reasons for the level of worry some are experiencing. There is an uptick in some categories, and it's higher in some spots than others, but since we seem to have stabilized the elderly and especially nursing home deaths, this isn't the concern it once was. I'm still fine with some worry about things changing by the 4th, considering what has transpired the last couple of weeks, but if we don't see any major change in these sorts of graphs, I think the only real worry will come in the fall, if then.
Click to expand...
Definitely promising information in those graphs but I don’t think we can get a good picture of what’s going on by looking at national numbers. We’ve got the original epicenters falling drastically with new ones emerging. I think it’s just better to look at specific states or groups of states when looking at trends. Looking at the northeast gave us a better picture early of what was going on then looking at the full nation. Now it’s probably better to look at AZ-TX-OK-FL.

 
TheWinz said:
As time goes on, I think we will see the average age of death due to COVID decrease.  But it won't be because the virus has gotten deadlier to the younger generations.  It will be because it ravaged the older community so hard, no one is left.  Sounds morbid, but you can't kill someone that's already dead.
Click to expand...
Still got a long way to go for that. I don’t know if there’s been any more recent data looking to estimate how much of the population has gotten COVID but previous studies indicate it’s only 10-15%. I don’t know if the elderly has been infected at a higher rate or simply more cases were discovered because they are more likely to be symptomatic.

 
Biff84 said:
Definitely promising information in those graphs but I don’t think we can get a good picture of what’s going on by looking at national numbers. We’ve got the original epicenters falling drastically with new ones emerging. I think it’s just better to look at specific states or groups of states when looking at trends. Looking at the northeast gave us a better picture early of what was going on then looking at the full nation. Now it’s probably better to look at AZ-TX-OK-FL.
Click to expand...
TX - 29M, 2222 dead
FL - 21M, 3256 dead
AZ - 7.3M, 1384 dead
OK - 3.9M, 371 dead

CT - 3.5M, 4263 dead

Do I think our current epicenters are going to see death rates like we had in NY/NJ/CT?  Hell no, not even close.  I would bet any amount of money OK will never sniff CT's death numbers, and probably AZ too.  TX and FL will only eventually surpass because of their population.

 
Biff84 said:
Definitely promising information in those graphs but I don’t think we can get a good picture of what’s going on by looking at national numbers. We’ve got the original epicenters falling drastically with new ones emerging. I think it’s just better to look at specific states or groups of states when looking at trends. Looking at the northeast gave us a better picture early of what was going on then looking at the full nation. Now it’s probably better to look at AZ-TX-OK-FL.
Click to expand...
I'm not really worried about case numbers going up. Sure, maybe hospitalizations and deaths could possibly spike following this, but those metrics are relatively flat. If those metrics do not rise considerably by the 4th of July, I'm done worrying about this thing.

That being said, I'm not one step removed from it again after hooking up with the ex last Thursday. Her daughter is awaiting test results, probably infected the weekend prior, and now has a fever and was experiencing . There's only a small window of time on Thursday she saw the ex since she was staying with her dad all week, but if the ex got infected that day, I surely did. 

 
Ohio has been ticking up a little.  We recorded 31 deaths in that last 24 hrs vs a 21 day average of 23.  Hospitalizations were 87 vs 57 average.

 
TripItUp said:
we don't have any other sample of younger infected?  Seems we would know by now.
Click to expand...
Not really....people have stayed away from each other until now...that's how we've been able to keep the "it's only affecting old people" narrative alive and well.  Now everyone's exposing each other.  We'll see how it really works here in the next few weeks unfortunately.

 
TheWinz said:
TX - 29M, 2222 dead
FL - 21M, 3256 dead
AZ - 7.3M, 1384 dead
OK - 3.9M, 371 dead

CT - 3.5M, 4263 dead

Do I think our current epicenters are going to see death rates like we had in NY/NJ/CT?  Hell no, not even close.  I would bet any amount of money OK will never sniff CT's death numbers, and probably AZ too.  TX and FL will only eventually surpass because of their population.
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I sure hope not but we’re entering uncharted waters right now. Those states are approaching the point where the northeast went into a lockdown. We’ve got more knowledge and precautions now but a lockdown isn’t happening. We don’t know what will happen to the growth curve if left unchecked.

 
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/19/1004169/biggest-questions-about-immunity-to-covid-19/

Article questioning herd immunity and vaccine effectiveness. Assuming it's true, what's the general feeling of this group going forward? I remember a lot of shelter in place people thought we might need to wait this thing out until there's a vaccine. If there's never going to be an adequate vaccine, does anyone think we can shelter in place until it dies off? Would it? I think we're going to just have to let this thing run it's course and do things to mitigate surges. I'm just glad this one isn't as deadly as other, less effective spreaders have been. I'm adjusting my protocols, ideas on wearing masks, and other precautions for the next one, which may be more deadly and as contagious.

 
jplvr said:
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/19/1004169/biggest-questions-about-immunity-to-covid-19/

Article questioning herd immunity and vaccine effectiveness. Assuming it's true, what's the general feeling of this group going forward? I remember a lot of shelter in place people thought we might need to wait this thing out until there's a vaccine. If there's never going to be an adequate vaccine, does anyone think we can shelter in place until it dies off? Would it? I think we're going to just have to let this thing run it's course and do things to mitigate surges. I'm just glad this one isn't as deadly as other, less effective spreaders have been. I'm adjusting my protocols, ideas on wearing masks, and other precautions for the next one, which may be more deadly and as contagious.
Click to expand...
At this point:

A) Get lucky and find vaccine (no way we are coming anywhere close to herd immunity - ever)

B) Get lucky and our Speaker of the House becomes President before 2021.

C) Vote in a President that will actually do something.

IMO, best case scenario is that we are more or less crippled due to the virus until March/April 2021. 

 
jamny said:
Maybe among older people but I don't think there are party lines to this among young people going and packing bars and other places.
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But that party line is certainly there during all the day-to-day stuff. Age doesnt change anything for that.

 
jplvr said:
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/19/1004169/biggest-questions-about-immunity-to-covid-19/

Article questioning herd immunity and vaccine effectiveness. Assuming it's true, what's the general feeling of this group going forward? I remember a lot of shelter in place people thought we might need to wait this thing out until there's a vaccine. If there's never going to be an adequate vaccine, does anyone think we can shelter in place until it dies off? Would it? I think we're going to just have to let this thing run it's course and do things to mitigate surges. I'm just glad this one isn't as deadly as other, less effective spreaders have been. I'm adjusting my protocols, ideas on wearing masks, and other precautions for the next one, which may be more deadly and as contagious.
Click to expand...
Source for this? 

 
Endowed said:
But that party line is certainly there during all the day-to-day stuff. Age doesnt change anything for that.
Click to expand...
Sure but I think the bigger culprit causing spread is large groups like in bars, clubs and such, not the day to day mask-less.  Dont get me wrong, I'm well aware of the right being more at fault for failure to comply and help us all get through this, led by the man at the top.

 
Biff84 said:
Definitely promising information in those graphs but I don’t think we can get a good picture of what’s going on by looking at national numbers. We’ve got the original epicenters falling drastically with new ones emerging. I think it’s just better to look at specific states or groups of states when looking at trends. Looking at the northeast gave us a better picture early of what was going on then looking at the full nation. Now it’s probably better to look at AZ-TX-OK-FL.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Early on they would pull NY and NJ out of the charts to get a better national picture. It should be done now for the same reason.

 
jplvr said:
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/19/1004169/biggest-questions-about-immunity-to-covid-19/

Article questioning herd immunity and vaccine effectiveness. Assuming it's true, what's the general feeling of this group going forward? I remember a lot of shelter in place people thought we might need to wait this thing out until there's a vaccine. If there's never going to be an adequate vaccine, does anyone think we can shelter in place until it dies off? Would it? I think we're going to just have to let this thing run it's course and do things to mitigate surges. I'm just glad this one isn't as deadly as other, less effective spreaders have been. I'm adjusting my protocols, ideas on wearing masks, and other precautions for the next one, which may be more deadly and as contagious.
Click to expand...
We have to learn to live with the virus in circulation. That will mean long term use of social distancing and masks. It will also means some businesses being reimagined or scaled back significantly. We will have to learn to accept a high level of death and hospitalization. Nothing about it is good.

 
Keerock said:
I say it all the time now.  I think it's based on English translations from Indian dialects, but it's commonplace in IT.
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I've actually never heard anyone say it and I think it's the first time I saw it used. I only know about it from the Phrases that need to be stopped thread...lol

 
rcam said:
At this point:

A) Get lucky and find vaccine (no way we are coming anywhere close to herd immunity - ever)
Click to expand...
Vaccines and herd immunity work on the same principle, so if we are never coming close to herd immunity, there will never be a vaccine either. The article covers both.

I'm not digging for a quote in this thread or an article for the other poster. I guess one could go searching around for something to prove or disprove, but maybe I should have used the word "some" instead of using "a lot." It was a sentiment expressed, but to what degree it was a thing is debatable.

 
Is there any area, anywhere in the world, that has gotten hammered twice? I realize it might be too early for that just yet, but I'm just wondering if it's happened?

 
jplvr said:
Vaccines and herd immunity work on the same principle, so if we are never coming close to herd immunity, there will never be a vaccine either. The article covers both.

I'm not digging for a quote in this thread or an article for the other poster. I guess one could go searching around for something to prove or disprove, but maybe I should have used the word "some" instead of using "a lot." It was a sentiment expressed, but to what degree it was a thing is debatable.
Click to expand...
Colloquially, when talking about herd immunity with this virus, it is people getting infected - not herd immunity achieved through a vaccine. I am well aware of the difference between the two. 

 
shader said:
Is there any area, anywhere in the world, that has gotten hammered twice? I realize it might be too early for that just yet, but I'm just wondering if it's happened?
Click to expand...
China imposed new lock downs recently, didn't they? I guess they didn't get hammered, although I also believe we'd never know if they did.

 
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