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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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shader
Footballguy
Because this is a real virus and it hospitalizes and kills real people, despite the fact that not every counted hospitalization is a serious and life-threatening case.
shader
Footballguy
Unfortunately it will. People still don't get the basics of this virus.
Normal life without masks leads to more cases. Eventually the exponential growth will really accelerate and the cases will start exploding. This INEVITABLY leads to more hospitalizations. What will inevitably follow are more deaths.
You nailed it for Florida weeks ago, but you weren't using any special powers of prognostication, nor were you being "pessimistic". It's called common sense. Something that many people in this country just don't have. Which is why the 2nd lockdown is coming hard and fast.
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tri-man 47
Footballguy
As @shader noted, a lousy day yesterday. Per Covid worldometers, new cases were 163,000 ...second highest day ever. Deaths approached 5,500.
23 countries had over 1,000 new cases, which is about as high as that stat has been, demonstrating how widespread the virus still is. Brazil's 40,000 new cases slightly exceeded the U.S.' 36,000 new cases, followed by India and Russia. Behind them were several countries with 3-4,000 new cases - Mexico, South Africa, Pakistan, Chile, Bangladesh, Peru, and Saudi Arabia. Ignoring a handful of islands/small nations, the U.S. is 5th in cases/million ... and 19th in tests/million. Yesterday's new case count in the U.S. was the third highest day ever.
U.S. deaths yesterday were 863. In comparison, consider the U.K. (280), France (57), Italy (18), Canada (18), Germany (17), and Spain (1). U.S. deaths have clearly been trending down since early May, however, the current risk is that the trend might reverse.
23 countries had over 1,000 new cases, which is about as high as that stat has been, demonstrating how widespread the virus still is. Brazil's 40,000 new cases slightly exceeded the U.S.' 36,000 new cases, followed by India and Russia. Behind them were several countries with 3-4,000 new cases - Mexico, South Africa, Pakistan, Chile, Bangladesh, Peru, and Saudi Arabia. Ignoring a handful of islands/small nations, the U.S. is 5th in cases/million ... and 19th in tests/million. Yesterday's new case count in the U.S. was the third highest day ever.
U.S. deaths yesterday were 863. In comparison, consider the U.K. (280), France (57), Italy (18), Canada (18), Germany (17), and Spain (1). U.S. deaths have clearly been trending down since early May, however, the current risk is that the trend might reverse.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Higher death rates in early hit areas is because they weren't testing. The reported case count for NY/NJ/CT is way below actual cases we had. At the peak they were only testing the most seriously ill. I know of people who were admitted to the hospital as a COVID case but they still weren't tested as they weren't sick enough to need to go to the ICU.
moleculo
Footballguy
while that is true, the scale of hospitalizations and deaths is certainly up for debate. Until we have a vaccine, COVID will run through us until herd immunity (if that is even a thing, which is up for question). However, at this point, we don't know if there is exponential growth. The recent rise we are seeing now may be related to the protests - one-time events - and not traditional community spread.
There is no guarantee we are headed for Italy-style deaths. Watching the numbers, infections are creeping up, but fatalities continue to trend low. is it because infections is a leading indicator? Or is it because current infections are happening amongst the young, who fare much better? I think it's the latter, but can't be sure.
I've continued to chime in, saying a very important stat is the amount of deaths compared to the amount of positive cases. For example, would you rather have 100 cases and 10 dead, or 1000 cases and 1 dead? The numbers below are available on Worldometer - you just have to do the math.
States from worst to best
9% - CT (9.32)
8% - MI (8.96)
7% - NY (7.59), NJ (7.56), PA (7.48), MA (7.34)
6% - NH (6.16), LA (6.08)
5% - IN (5.99), OH (5.93), RI (5.48), CO (5.39), MO (5.17)
4% - IL (4.87), VT (4.81), MD (4.76), DE (4.65), NM (4.39), MS (4.32), MN (4.26), WA (4.25)
3% - GA (3.97), KY (3.80), WV (3.55), NV (3.52), ME (3.41), OK (3.36), FL (3.13)
2% - WI (2.96), CA (2.95), MT (2.83), VA (2.79), AL (2.78), OR (2.64), IA (2.61), SC (2.53), AZ (2.38), NC (2.37), ND (2.35), HI & KS (2.08), ID (2.02)
1% - TX (1.80), WY (1.59), AK (1.54), TN (1.49), AR (1.42), NE (1.41), SD (1.31)
Under 1% - UT (0.89)
In the words of Dr. Gregory House, death changes everything. Looking above, it's easy to see why mask compliance is followed by some states alot more than others.
Overheard in CT - Did you hear Tom, Suzie, and Marcus all died? Yeah, this virus is no joke. I ain't taking this thing off my face until I get home.
Overheard in UT - Did you hear Tom, Suzie, and Marcus all recovered from Corona? Yeah, if they can survive this thing, why am I wearing this stupid mask?
States from worst to best
9% - CT (9.32)
8% - MI (8.96)
7% - NY (7.59), NJ (7.56), PA (7.48), MA (7.34)
6% - NH (6.16), LA (6.08)
5% - IN (5.99), OH (5.93), RI (5.48), CO (5.39), MO (5.17)
4% - IL (4.87), VT (4.81), MD (4.76), DE (4.65), NM (4.39), MS (4.32), MN (4.26), WA (4.25)
3% - GA (3.97), KY (3.80), WV (3.55), NV (3.52), ME (3.41), OK (3.36), FL (3.13)
2% - WI (2.96), CA (2.95), MT (2.83), VA (2.79), AL (2.78), OR (2.64), IA (2.61), SC (2.53), AZ (2.38), NC (2.37), ND (2.35), HI & KS (2.08), ID (2.02)
1% - TX (1.80), WY (1.59), AK (1.54), TN (1.49), AR (1.42), NE (1.41), SD (1.31)
Under 1% - UT (0.89)
In the words of Dr. Gregory House, death changes everything. Looking above, it's easy to see why mask compliance is followed by some states alot more than others.
Overheard in CT - Did you hear Tom, Suzie, and Marcus all died? Yeah, this virus is no joke. I ain't taking this thing off my face until I get home.
Overheard in UT - Did you hear Tom, Suzie, and Marcus all recovered from Corona? Yeah, if they can survive this thing, why am I wearing this stupid mask?
Redwes25
Footballguy
The problem is these numbers are all meaningless since all the top states didn't test anyone. No one thinks the case fatality rate is 7% it so high since testing was so bad. See my prior post.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I was reading that 55,000 of the deaths happened in nursing homes. I don't know what that means but it seems to point to fewer and fewer Working Class folks in the 18-55/60 range which makes up a lot of the Workforce is low risk to get this and yet we have crippled our economy and run out many small businesses.
I like the theme of your posts. It gets very dire at times and I do believe we all need to work together to rid this things quicker so we can move on...not go back exactly to before, not sure that will ever happen again, at least that's how I feel at 10:27 on a Wed Morning.
shader
Footballguy
Italy-style deaths? The USA has four times as many deaths as Italy. Deaths are only trending low for now because cases were on the decline 2 weeks ago. When people get sick they don't die immediately. This idea that fatalities might not rise is absolutely mind-boggling to me.
Cases over the past week have absolutely exploded in the USA and in many states. Hospitalizations and deaths WILL rise in direct proportion to those rises in cases. It's not a theory, or a myth, it's a scientific certainty.
If you go look at worldometers and look at the charts for new cases and deaths, it's easy to see when the downward trend broke, about a week ago.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The downward trends in deaths will break too, and that will happen over the next 1-2 weeks. It's unavoidable. Because that's what happens when this virus spreads. More people die.
shader
Footballguy
That would be a first. Mandantory mask usage and rolling lockdowns can soften the blow and push this thing out quite a bit.
Dead is dead. People weren't dying in NY/NJ/CT because they weren't getting tested. They were dying because they had the virus. Using your logic, WA & CA should be a helluva lot higher on the list, as they were hit early too.
CR69
Footballguy
Hospitalizations for the 18-44 crowd are increasing as well. Just because you don't die doesn't mean it's not a serious problem.
themeanmachine
Footballguy
If the demographics and health of the current rise in cases were the same as they were 2-3 months ago then yes. But with the current cases skewing much younger, there certainly will not be a direct proportional increase in hospitalizations and deaths.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Reporter on CNBC said, "the market's taken a step lower after Florida's Coronavirus stats were just released." I can't find the data online. Anywhere know where to look?
shader
Footballguy
That's just not accurate.There will 100% be a direct increase in hospitalizations and deaths. The "death rate" may vary based on state/area/demographics, but this virus will cause an increase hospitalizations and deaths in areas where it breaks out. That's literally unavoidable.
shader
Footballguy
https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/06/22/coronavirus-florida-100000-cases-covid-19-latest-numbers/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=wplg10
I'm sure the major tracking sites will update any minute.
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Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Thanks. Yup. That'll do it. CNBC showed a "Hotspots" map that included both Tampa and Orlando.
I think what @themeanmachine was pointing out was your statement said...
"Hospitalizations and deaths WILL rise in direct proportion to those rises in cases. It's not a theory, or a myth, it's a scientific certainty."
I think it's the words "direct proportion" that he had an issue with. It's a certainty that more cases equals more hospitalizations and deaths - no one will refute that. But to say the hospitalizations and deaths will rise at the same rate as the cases, without taking the age of those infected into account is wrong.
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Florida Mask Mandates : Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties
After an eight-hour meeting Tuesday, Pinellas County commissioners passed a mandate that begins at 5 p.m. Wednesday. The order will require every adult to wear a mask while inside public buildings if they cannot social distance.
Hillsborough's Emergency Policy Group approved a mask mandate earlier this week, which went into effect immediately, with enforcement beginning at 5 p.m. Wednesday.
In Pasco County, the mask order went into effect immediately after Dan Biles, the county administrator, issued an executive order Tuesday. Enforcement begins 5 p.m. Thursday. Not wearing a mask could result in a $250 fine.
After an eight-hour meeting Tuesday, Pinellas County commissioners passed a mandate that begins at 5 p.m. Wednesday. The order will require every adult to wear a mask while inside public buildings if they cannot social distance.
Hillsborough's Emergency Policy Group approved a mask mandate earlier this week, which went into effect immediately, with enforcement beginning at 5 p.m. Wednesday.
In Pasco County, the mask order went into effect immediately after Dan Biles, the county administrator, issued an executive order Tuesday. Enforcement begins 5 p.m. Thursday. Not wearing a mask could result in a $250 fine.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Not like NY, NJ, etc. I agree dead is dead but percentages don't mean anything when you probably have another 500k cases in NY.
JaxBill
Footballguy
But see, that's the thing. I know deaths are a trailing indicator but Florida has been "Smashing records " for a couple weeks now and their daily death total has been flat. Even today, 5000+ cases 43 deaths. If you go to worldometers the 7 day daily death average has been around 35. We'll see if this can hold.
Two things I don't like about this...
1) They shouldn't have said "if they cannot social distance". Just say masks are mandatory inside public buildings and leave it at that. It's basically a loophole built in.
2) Change "could result in a $250 fine" to "will result in a $250 fine".
themeanmachine
Footballguy
Yes, exactly. It's the "direct proportional" part that is just not correct, we do not know yet how much hospitalizations and deaths will increase, there is no certainty at all about this.
NY and NJ are ranked 2 & 3 in testing. I could see your point if they were near the bottom.
Exactly. Just further proof that cases can go up drastically, but deaths don't necessarily have to follow. It's not how many new cases we are seeing that's important - it's the ages of those cases.
shader
Footballguy
Well of course they won't rise at the same rate. This virus doesn't have a 100% death rate. But we have plenty of data that provide us with covid-19 hospitalization and death rates and those same numbers will become evident in every outbreak zone, unless the virus has mutated.
shader
Footballguy
Statistically speaking, it cannot hold.
I just read that Florida reported their 2nd highest hospitalization increase of the pandemic today with 256.
We are about 10-12 days into undeniable Florida increases. Before that, if you tried to say Florida was increasing, you were met with YEAH BUT THEY ARE TESTING MORE arguments.
The hospitalization increases are happening right now. The increases in deaths will follow.
We don't need to wait around to see the deaths actually occur before we act, do we? We've seen this all over the world time after time.There's no reason to wait and see if things turn out the same as we know that they will. This virus isn't a mystery anymore.
shader
Footballguy
You really gotta stop with this. But hey, I've made my point, so I'll leave you guys to your hoping that this virus will magically not kill people this time around.
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According to Worldometer as of right now, there are 123,484 deaths out of 2,424,857 positive cases in the US. That's a death rate of 5.09%. I will bet the death rate will only decrease over the next month, and the main reason will be the age of the infected.
culdeus
Footballguy
This is misleading. The worst states we're hit early before we protected seniors like at all.
I have to ask - do you think the virus has mutated over the last few months, to the point where it's gonna start taking the lives of the younger generations like it did to nursing home folks from the start? I get it - DEATH SUCKS. But the fact is that only 2% of the deaths are under 35 years old. Young married couples can serve COVID for breakfast to their kids.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
I appreciate the information you bring to this thread, but come on. USA has >5X the population of Italy.
I'm not defending the US response to the virus, but comments (not necessarily from you) about oh "we're idiots", the "whole rest of the world has this figured out but us", etc. irritate me because the US has lower deaths per capita than Italy, Spain, UK, Belgium, Sweden, and France. Time will tell where things will end up, but as of now I would say that if you compare the US to similar countries - open, Western democracies with tons of travel, we're not an outlier.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
NY, NJ, & CT governors announcing a travel advisory. People must self-quarantine for 14 days when coming from states with "high infection rates". Haven't seen the details yet.
Redwes25
Footballguy
When we peaked there was no testing. I know many people that had it and were never tested including hospitalized patients that were never tested. NYC stated policy when hospitalizations peaked was to not even get tested and assume you had it and just go to hospital if you were short of breath. NY reported cases are massively under reported and that stat is meaningless. Look at antibody results that have come out that show NY was hugely under reporting cases. This isn't really a debate that our numbers are way low.
The advisory says that our highways are equipped with those vehicle barriers, and if your state plate ends in the letter A, the barrier goes up.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Definitely worried about the hospitalizations. Agreed that it is more than just increased testing. One contributing factor to increased hospitalizations I have seen is that if they treat with Remsdalavir, it requires a 5 day hospital stay.
Still encouraged by hospitals saying these cases aren't as bad and fewer ICU cases though.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Nope, It will decrease since cases are underreported so the rate of death is much lower. Worldometers has NY state at 400k cases. Antibody testing of NYC residents show about 13% got infected (https://www.6sqft.com/new-york-covid-antibody-test-preliminary-results/). You apply that percentage to NYC population and you have a million cases in NYC alone. This issue was true all over the NY metro area (NY, NJ and CT). No one knows how many cases were in NY but I do know that 400k cases is off by at least a million.
My guess case fatality rate is like 1 to 2%.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
I'm not sure if this is true or not, but Desantis mentioned that the new cases are primarily younger people who have a far greater chance of survival and that we (the state) has done a much better job of protecting senior facilities and at-risk individuals. So there is legitimate potential that it doesn't kill people "this time around" if it's infecting those more capable of shaking it off.
Sounds like we both agree the death rate will decrease though, right? Just for different reasons.
Redwes25
Footballguy
yup, agree with you that rate is much lower. It is closer to the states peaking later than to NY and others that peaked early. Also, think it shows that the critical thing to watch is hospitalizations since that is something you can measure truly against historical records and not cases. We don't really know how many cases you need to swamp the hospitals like in NYC or Italy since we don't know how many cases we had in those places.
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beer 30
Footballguy
You just argue to argue sometimes, no one is saying deaths won't occur just that this virus has proven to not effect younger age groups the same way it does older age groups. Unless this thing mutates death rates amoungst younger age groups aren't going to change. Buy hey, you've blasted your hyperbole for the day so move on.
I think we need to be looking at the ages of those hospitalized and/or dying. It will shed light on how/if this virus is mutating.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Very hard to keep the virus out of nursing homes, etc. and once it is in one of those places it spreads like crazy. It is truly horrible. It will spread from the young to the old eventually so need to keep cases down.
Please don't ask @shader to move on. He may not paint with a rosy brush, but the discussions can be fun.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
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