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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
200 is nothing. My niece is getting married the 25th in Ohio and there are 425 invited. The hall says it's fine since it is private. There is no way we can get out of going since this is my wife's only sisters kid.
The Commish
Footballguy
no worries....it's getting pretty nasty down here at "partially open" is my only point.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
+65,488 cases yesterday per Worldometer. +465 deaths.
That is 435,700 cases in the last 7 days. Yes, we can argue testing all you want but that number of positive cases is...
That is 435,700 cases in the last 7 days. Yes, we can argue testing all you want but that number of positive cases is...
- more than the total number that every other country has save 3 (Russia, Brazil, India)
- an average of 62,242 per day
- 373 expected deaths per day (in several weeks) if we are generous and say a .6% death rate. It rises to 2,800 deaths per day if we see our current rate of around 4.5% (FTR, it will most likely be much close to .6 than 4.5)
- That's 2,600 weekly deaths on the low end and 19k on the high end
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
You want a corona virus life hack, get a 50 person wedding in mexico (max), but have 50 more people at each of the three nearby resorts. They walk down the beach for the ceremony.
This happened this weekend for someone that my sister knows. Ended up with close to 180 at the ceremony and another 20 or so kids in tow.
They felt they were "safe" because they more or less took the entire plane over down and back.
:facepalm:
This happened this weekend for someone that my sister knows. Ended up with close to 180 at the ceremony and another 20 or so kids in tow.
They felt they were "safe" because they more or less took the entire plane over down and back.
:facepalm:
In general, yes, but many of the European countries that are doing well locked down longer and more strictly. I think it’s more the message coming out of lockdown. With most states not following the guidelines or just completely ignoring them, it just fed the people’s belief that it was no big deal or we were done with it.
shader
Footballguy
Sad to say the death numbers are only starting to rise. 5k won't be the peak for a week.
Doug B
Footballguy
Preeminent guy in his field to be sure ... but he's kind of all over the place and somewhat non-scientific despite his background. I do think he is earnestly trying to understand, but it's that COVID-19 is just THAT confounding that it's hard to pin it down to a small number "known for sure" principles and constraints.
The part in red, however ... I do think in the long run, he'll be right about that. I've already seen it in lots of small ways with face-covering compliance locally over the last two weekends. A lot of small changes in a lot of places will eventually equal "people doing the right thing".
Florida Sets Single-Day Record for Coronavirus Deaths With 132, Adds 9,100 New Cases
The positivity rate is also high, especially in SE Florida.
https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/07/13/coronavirus-florida-reports-12624-more-covid-19-cases-monday/
Not all 132 people died in the past 24 hours. I'm not sure how the delay in reporting deaths relates to higher or lower reports of deaths in the future.
The positivity rate is also high, especially in SE Florida.
https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/07/13/coronavirus-florida-reports-12624-more-covid-19-cases-monday/
Not all 132 people died in the past 24 hours. I'm not sure how the delay in reporting deaths relates to higher or lower reports of deaths in the future.
need2know
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
It's a fine distinction Stadler is making, perhaps. Looking again at what he wrote below ... he seems to be saying that a quickly-shut-down infection isn't of clinical significance:
EDIT: I had meant to reply to some of your posts last night, but it's a PITA to do it properly on a phone. Just coming around to last night's comments now.
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the moops
Footballguy
Scoresman
Footballguy
Somehow this seems to have been overlooked. Especially when posts below it are referencing such a high positive rate in Florida.
Appears like their numbers are wring.
culdeus
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Yeah...this has been a concern all along and what that crazy lady brought up as a possibility some time back. The theory was they'd be "inflating" numbers in the chaos, so that as things got really bad, they could start reporting closer to real results making it appear as if things were going down. I thought people were full of it when suggesting that, but I guess maybe not? I think the only question now is "who?" is responsible. Are these sites doing this or the people loading the systems? They have a weekly segment on my local CBS affiliate about this...will have to pay closer attention to that segment this week.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Time for your South Florida/Palm Beach Update from your fearless in the field reporter...so I went to my usual coffee shop today, I have been a very infrequent guest thru the CV-19, didn't walk in at all in late March/Apr/May and then in June I started to come out of my shell more and things were touch and go but after what I saw today, I simply want to describe and share so you can have the information and things become clearer about how things work down here.
-I walk in, nobody inside sitting down, all the workers(cashier-barrister-chef in back) all had masks. MOP had his mask on as well. I ordered and then sat down on a stool to wait for my breakfast wrap and I started sipping on a cup of coffee while I sat but had my mask almost all the way on, I slipped it back up all the way as I heard the door open and turned to find a Late 50s/early 60s man NO MASK walks right up to counter and orders, wearing a company shirt and that's kind of dangerous if you are going to break the Mask Mandate(Is is a Law?) and I wanted to say something like "I guess you must have already had it" but I am trying not to argue with people and just worry about myself when I am in public.
-Next 2 people thru the door, Dad/Daughter both masked, a lot of people suddenly popped in the door once I walked in, they really should pay me to sit in there and drink coffee.
-Next 2 people thru the door, Construction Dudes or blue collar or whatever but they had NO MASK and just waited to put their order in and nobody was going to tell them differently until...
-Next 2 people were an openly gay female couple and they were masked and they were furious with these two men and then also the fellow who was sitting down at a table not socially distancing himself from anyone and you can see what is about to happen or coming a mile away...Countown t-minus 10 seconds, all systems clear for liftoff...
-The owner, Mr Tom walks out and has NO MASK and has been pretty open and clear that they can come arrest him anytime they please. The town this sits in has their own police department, I know every single one of those police officers and there aren't that many of them, probably less than 10-15 for the town and he's right, I doubt that any one of them would pull in and start writing citations in his coffee shop, everyone loves this place, it's a shame what has happened has happened BUT...
How can you do the right thing as a citizen? I wear a mask for INDOOR situations like the one I was in this morning, I go to the grocery store, I grab a slice of pizza-takeout but I am not sitting around sipping a lot of drinks at Bar/Grilles that are skirting the rules IMHO by serving very loosely defined food when they make most of their money with their bar. OK, so they bring the drinks to the tables now, still a lot of folks can gather indoors and we are in the middle of every 1:3, 1:4 people testing positive right now.
I don't have any answers either, I'm not sure who does. All elected officials are moving in different directions and the people on the ground are left to sort this mess out. It's not fair and I know life is not fair but this just seems poorly thought out around my area. Help?
Nothing anyone can do, I try not to think about it long, try not to hang out on the forums all day and get out and get fresh air and be there for as many people as I can trying to be understanding and just see where I can help direct people but it's getting more and more difficult, everyone has their breaking point and I guess I hit mine this past Saturday. I haven't shared it Otis' Diet thread and probably for good reason but I had a meltdown on another Tennis player that I let get under my skin and I embarrassed myself by going FULL BOAR OLD SCHOOL MOP on this person, now he had it coming and it was building over a month since I returned to the Courts but that doesn't matter, I am angry with myself. I got this guy so angry and pissed off he felt the need to inform me that he was so rich he retired at the age of 50! Well I'm 46 and this didn't end well, I'm lucky it was 7:30am and there just wasn't anyone around from the Tennis Center to see or hear it.
Stress levels not good right now, know better than to mingle with folks, best to stay indoors or around my neighborhood when I'm exercising and just stay focused on myself, that was working miracles in April and May, perhaps I was doing it so well because I thought it was temporary...didn't realize all of 2020 was going to be like this.
Sorry everyone, not my best day but I try to keep it real with all of you.
-I walk in, nobody inside sitting down, all the workers(cashier-barrister-chef in back) all had masks. MOP had his mask on as well. I ordered and then sat down on a stool to wait for my breakfast wrap and I started sipping on a cup of coffee while I sat but had my mask almost all the way on, I slipped it back up all the way as I heard the door open and turned to find a Late 50s/early 60s man NO MASK walks right up to counter and orders, wearing a company shirt and that's kind of dangerous if you are going to break the Mask Mandate(Is is a Law?) and I wanted to say something like "I guess you must have already had it" but I am trying not to argue with people and just worry about myself when I am in public.
-Next 2 people thru the door, Dad/Daughter both masked, a lot of people suddenly popped in the door once I walked in, they really should pay me to sit in there and drink coffee.
-Next 2 people thru the door, Construction Dudes or blue collar or whatever but they had NO MASK and just waited to put their order in and nobody was going to tell them differently until...
-Next 2 people were an openly gay female couple and they were masked and they were furious with these two men and then also the fellow who was sitting down at a table not socially distancing himself from anyone and you can see what is about to happen or coming a mile away...Countown t-minus 10 seconds, all systems clear for liftoff...
-The owner, Mr Tom walks out and has NO MASK and has been pretty open and clear that they can come arrest him anytime they please. The town this sits in has their own police department, I know every single one of those police officers and there aren't that many of them, probably less than 10-15 for the town and he's right, I doubt that any one of them would pull in and start writing citations in his coffee shop, everyone loves this place, it's a shame what has happened has happened BUT...
How can you do the right thing as a citizen? I wear a mask for INDOOR situations like the one I was in this morning, I go to the grocery store, I grab a slice of pizza-takeout but I am not sitting around sipping a lot of drinks at Bar/Grilles that are skirting the rules IMHO by serving very loosely defined food when they make most of their money with their bar. OK, so they bring the drinks to the tables now, still a lot of folks can gather indoors and we are in the middle of every 1:3, 1:4 people testing positive right now.
I don't have any answers either, I'm not sure who does. All elected officials are moving in different directions and the people on the ground are left to sort this mess out. It's not fair and I know life is not fair but this just seems poorly thought out around my area. Help?
Nothing anyone can do, I try not to think about it long, try not to hang out on the forums all day and get out and get fresh air and be there for as many people as I can trying to be understanding and just see where I can help direct people but it's getting more and more difficult, everyone has their breaking point and I guess I hit mine this past Saturday. I haven't shared it Otis' Diet thread and probably for good reason but I had a meltdown on another Tennis player that I let get under my skin and I embarrassed myself by going FULL BOAR OLD SCHOOL MOP on this person, now he had it coming and it was building over a month since I returned to the Courts but that doesn't matter, I am angry with myself. I got this guy so angry and pissed off he felt the need to inform me that he was so rich he retired at the age of 50! Well I'm 46 and this didn't end well, I'm lucky it was 7:30am and there just wasn't anyone around from the Tennis Center to see or hear it.
Stress levels not good right now, know better than to mingle with folks, best to stay indoors or around my neighborhood when I'm exercising and just stay focused on myself, that was working miracles in April and May, perhaps I was doing it so well because I thought it was temporary...didn't realize all of 2020 was going to be like this.
Sorry everyone, not my best day but I try to keep it real with all of you.
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Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
I stumbled across him last week I think. Very interesting, although much like some of the strong proponents of lockdown, I find his stridency a little off-putting.
I'll admit I find the "burnout" theory very intriguing. PA has been pretty darn strict by anybody's standards - closed schools and locked down before NY, very early mask order with high compliance. And yet, I've been watching cases and deaths in PA, NJ, and NY and while PA is doing well NY and NJ have dropped at a much faster rate. I find the prevailing narrative that those states just took it much more seriously than PA to be suspect. At the risk of straying into anecdotes, the first weekend PA locked down I went for a run and pretty much the only cars I saw on the road had NY and NJ plates (we get a lot of people from both in Eastern PA). A few weeks later I was at a local park and a guy from the Jersey shore (!) on a bike was asking if there was an Applebee's around?!? To me, the idea that NY and NJ are dropping so fast precisely because so much of their population has already been exposed has a lot of plausibility. The fact that as far as I can tell places spiking now are pretty much exclusively places that have been hit relatively lightly thus far is also suggestive. Why "burnout" would happen at 15-20% rather than 80% would have to be explained by people more knowledgeable than me.
The Commish
Footballguy
"It's only 1% mortality rate we are shutting down for?!?!?!"
Short answer is "no". This goes to a couple comments I made earlier in this thread. We are so short sighted it's embarrassing.
Short answer is "no". This goes to a couple comments I made earlier in this thread. We are so short sighted it's embarrassing.
shader
Footballguy
If you'd like, you can go to the Florida site that reports daily numbers. The clinics that are reporting 100% make up a VERY low percentage of the total tests. I doubt they are changing the numbers in any significant way.
The positive cases, hospitalizations, positive rate, and death numbers continue to climb for Florida. There's no alternate truth to try and look for.
matuski
Footballguy
Where are they getting the heart and lung data?
Nearly everyone (18/19) hospitalized has permanent heart damage? Seems some large assumptions being made here.
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
Just realized my math was wrong. It’ll be 13 not 8 weeks to 200k. I think I used a different weekly number but then decided on 5k. No matter how you slice it, we suck at this pandemic.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
This is why my preconceived biases tell me that media thinks that scare stories about going back to school sell better than the actual news.
This isn't a back to school story. This was three women sharing close quarters every day. No kids. Just three women.
What?????
If CDC guidelines really say that it is ok for three teachers, one of which is severely ill already, to work in the same room every day and still go to work when sick, then I will eat my shoes.
worrierking
Footballguy
Burnout at 15-20 % is possible because it's enough to move the R0 below 1.0, especially with all the other mitigation strategies in place (distancing, masks, closures). Without mitigation, 15-20 % is unlikely enough to keep R0 below 1.0.
shader
Footballguy
There's a guy on the Florida coronavirus reddit board that claims that Florida tries to count all the negative tests from "recovering" people in order to keep the positive rate low. Whether true or not, it seems Florida is getting beat up over their numbers. Which is odd, because I find their daily report enlightening. It's MUCH better than what we get in TN. The situation in Florida is going downhill, and their own numbers prove that, whether they are fudging numbers or not.The Commish said:
As to the "100% clinics", I doubt that's a contributing factor.
Take a look at their daily report:
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf
Start on page 25. As you get close to the bottom, you do start to see some 100% clinics, but they make up a very low percentage of the overall tests.
Human error is never going to allow ANY data that we have to be perfect, but I think the data is more than enough to paint an accurate picture of what is going on in Florida.
Doug B
Footballguy
The parts in red ... Stadler, I think, is extrapolating from the corroborated observations that children collectively aren't sickened by COVID-19, and the idea that this observation in and of itself points to something meaningful about the nature of the virus.Terminalxylem said:
Such extrapolation, of course, is not proof. As for a priori immunity in children ... I read him as hypothesizing that adults have (somehow, not explained) lost a greater general coronavirus immunity those same adults likely had as youngsters (as opposed to those adults never having had that immunity).
The part in blue ... does it make any kind of sense to kind of treat COVID-19 as not really a respiratory infection? I mean, yes, COVID enters the body through breathing, settling in either in the throat or in the lungs. But once settled in (esp in the lungs), the effects of COVID-19 seem to have more "reach" throughout the body (via blood-vessel infection and clotting) than typical respiratory viruses which tend to "stay home" (generally correct?).
...
All caveats noted. Stadler, I think, presents thought-provoking ideas. To act on his ideas, especially at a community level, there needs to be more research and corroboration.
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Angry Beavers
Footballguy
i know that this is a terrible answer, but.. is that a travel team with a tournament this weekend, a rec team, something in between? I say this as it should not matter, BUT if it is a travel team where parents have shelled out some coin, I can just see the disagreement ensuing based upon the $ paid, a refund being offered, how good the player is/important to the team and where was the wedding - a hot spot or nah? No way to track where all of the kids go between practices and games either so this could easily opening up a big can of worms!!belljr said:
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
inside? This seems like a disaster waiting to happen, regardless of where in Ohio.bcat01 said:
shader
Footballguy
Florida's new hospitalization site is pretty cool. This is done by the Agency for Health care Admission.
https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/COVIDHospitalizationsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y
This next part is taken from reddit, so I can't verify it (and this site only gives current totals, it doesn't have historicals:
"For those unfamiliar with the AHCA numbers, they represent a snapshot of the state's current hospitalizations; basically the number of people who were already hospitalized plus new admissions minus discharges and deaths."
7/10 - 6770
7/11 - 7238
7/12 - 7438
7/13 - 8085
7/14 - 8190
https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/COVIDHospitalizationsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y
This next part is taken from reddit, so I can't verify it (and this site only gives current totals, it doesn't have historicals:
"For those unfamiliar with the AHCA numbers, they represent a snapshot of the state's current hospitalizations; basically the number of people who were already hospitalized plus new admissions minus discharges and deaths."
7/10 - 6770
7/11 - 7238
7/12 - 7438
7/13 - 8085
7/14 - 8190
The Commish
Footballguy
Beat me to my edit as I am stuffing my face with lunch. The post is an illustration of our shortsightedness thinking of deaths only. As far as I'm concerned, you can take the quantities out of the post and the point remains. I have not verified a single number on that post...the numbers isn't the point I am trying to make. It's the potential long term affects this is going to have cutting short many lives of those who get it. That's still a huge unknown and likely be for a while. It's my hope that things like this will show how short sighted people are when they say "but they aren't dying, so let's keep going".matuski said:
ETA: You can see the studies they pulled some of the numbers from if you scroll down a little bit, but again, the numbers weren't really my focus...it's the larger concept and an attempt to push back against the nonsense that it's ok if people are getting it since not as many are dying now. I think that's nonsense personally. To the specific question you pose here it's saying that for every person who dies from this disease, another 18 will have heart damage...maybe I am misreading? The wording is wonky IMO.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
He brings up a great point about New Zealand and Australia. They have almost no exposure so far. Not sure how you can "fix" that, but there is at least some logic to them being in this for a much longer haul now.culdeus said:
I am fairly certain that Australia got hit hard by the spanish flu in summer of 1919 when it had burned out almost everywhere else.
matuski
Footballguy
I get and agree with your main point.
I have a hard time believing the extrapolated numbers are anywhere near accurate. 1% death rate means a 19% heart damage rate, 18% lung damage, etc? Nah.
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Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
But everything was closed here too except for basically groceries and takeout food. Liquor stores were even closed. They put up caution tape around the local playgrounds and took the basketball hoops off of backboards. Was NJ stricter than that even?The reason NJ were in pa cause everything was closed here
The Commish
Footballguy
Don't know....as I said, you can see the studies for this stuff if you scroll down a bit. I will say the one on heart damage appears to be from March. I don't see another one that's revisited these numbers. They are probably different now than they were then. Could have easily been a correlation vs causation issue if no further studies have followed up.
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matuski
Footballguy
Yep.. the first paragraph is acknowledging two giant assumptions, then mashing a bunch of random studies into the assumptions.
So your point stands, and I agree.... but that link is ridiculous and does nothing to bolster your position imo.
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Inside. Our area has low cases and everyone thinks it is all blown out of proportion. My sister-in-law is in denial and doesn't want to hear about what could happen. She just says "the hall is letting us have it". My niece has problems with depression and we think she is border line bi-polar so if we don't go who knows what would happen.
The Commish
Footballguy
To be clear....I don't feel the need to bolster my position. It stands on it's merits all by itself IMO. The link is just another way of stating it. There are PLENTY hear and elsewhere who are completely ignoring this aspect and are on the "hey, we aren't dying as much, time to open things up" train. It's flat out wrong. Maybe seeing it stated a different way will help...no idea.
This is the actual study for the cardiac questions you had:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2763524?resultClick=1
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
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matuski
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
In case you weren't sure Rebekah Jones isn't exactly an honest source. She completely manufactured the narrative that a mother took her daughter to a "covid party" and caused her death when in reality the daughter was an active leader in her church's youth ministry and attended a church function that was never intended to be a "covid party." When pressed Jones doubled down by trying to imply that a "release party" at a church was just another term for a covid party. You know because you are releasing the virus.
Oh , what's that? Churches have release parties all the time? Even in 2019? Even in 2018????
Errrr.... well they didnt practice social distancing which is the same as attending a covid party!!!
The Commish
Footballguy
Funny thing...sent the link to my wife and her reply:
She's working with a group on cardiovascular impacts from this thing
It's been absolutely wonderful to see her excited about research again.
shader
Footballguy
Thanks for sharing. These are certainly worth taking note of. We really don't need anymore info to take this seriously, as it's bad enough "as is".
Let's say even 2% of people develop severe heart/cardiac issues that they deal with long-term and that potentially cause early death, that would be an extraordinary development. I think it's way too early to know exactly what this virus will do long-term.
Again, even if all this turns out to be untrue, and everyone that recovers from this makes a full recovery, the virus is bad enough on it's own. But we're starting to see signs and studies that this might not be the case.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'd like to point to this post as a good talking point.
For those who think they know more and can skirt the mask mandate or feel validated when you see others not wearing a mask or breaking the bigger one IMO, SOCIAL DISTANCING!!! How come it's always Mask/No Mask, how come people cannot stay 6 feet back? I almost went off on a guy who walked right by me, almost brushed up on me and again I am trying to just keep my cool when I am out and about.
What if you did catch the CV-19, maybe felt nothing more than other flu/colds you conquered but this one...this one ends up doing something to your heart or lungs that won't be felt until you are a little later on in life...long term impact, would that get some folks attention? Would that potentially change what folks do now?
It doesn't work well with smoking and alcohol warning people about later in life so my thinking would say it wouldn't however if it's true than everyone should be made aware about it.
shader
Footballguy
Would love to hear any info you get on this, even though I'm sure you won't be able to share...Funny thing...sent the link to my wife and her reply:
She's working with a group on cardiovascular impacts from this thing
The Commish
Footballguy
That's the crazy person from FSU right? Not sure what that has to do with the post quoted or the conversation I was having with matuski
. I have no idea why people were there but yes for 3 weeks you basically were home
