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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (2 Viewers)

Max Power said:
Why did Pete's and Biden's campaigns give money to Shadow, Inc.?  What service was that for?  Confused...
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their stated explanation is that they coordinated the $1 text donation operations, which is when they used to have a minimum donor headcount.  Then Bloomberg came and he has one donor and a quarter million dollars for the DNC and said what donors?  

But apparently Pete provided $50,000.00 for said service.   If I read correctly their initial funding was on the order of $650,000.00 so that's not entirely insignificant to their total operating number.  Biden said they used them once for one debate and ended the relationship, not sure of Pete's situation.

Why Shadow has a toe in both worlds is very .... shady?

 
Max Power said:
Why did Pete's and Biden's campaigns give money to Shadow, Inc.?  What service was that for?  Confused...
Click to expand...
Could be a number of things from a data analytics standpoint.  If I read correctly, the company was an offshoot of one both Obama and Hillary campaigns used for data.

 
Max Power said:
Why did Pete's and Biden's campaigns give money to Shadow, Inc.?  What service was that for?  Confused...
Click to expand...
This may sound crazy, but apparently this company exists to sell more than one product that will be used one time for a caucus - they've also been working on a polling app that a few of the campaigns purchased licenses for.  I know it sounds weirder than a bunch of candidates funneling money right out in the open to try to rig Bernie out of the primary, but that's the word right now. I'm sure more and more will come out and there may be even more apps involved. 

 
Random thoughts

While the Bernie Bros are still explaining how he has a path to the nomination in 2016 I don't see any way that Bernie comes out of this a winner.   Even if he leaves with the most real or equivalent delegates and/or most overall "votes".  First off about half of his 2016 proved to either be a vote against Hillary or a vote for progressive ideas that went to another candidate this time around.   Second if turnout was low then the idea that Sanders is generating excitement may be true, but its not going to be enough.  Third in 2016 Sanders dominated the caucuses and was defeated pretty soundly in primary states where the less enthused voters show up. 

Did Trump win over a bunch of the 46 to 64  year olds?  At first glance it looked like there was an increase in youth vote (maybe there will be) but then in looking at the percentages it seems that there was increase in share among all age groups except one.  Did these folks just defect to the GOP?  Or were they busy working second shifts?  (The childcare argument doesn't seem to work here.)  Are Iowa democrats more liberal because this bracket is defecting?

In 2016 I stated that Bernie could win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada and it wouldn't make a difference because of South Carolina and the SEC states on Super Tuesday.   In some ways this feels the same with Biden, but in others it does not.  I know some (at least one) of you are all in on this, but with so many candidates still there I don't know this is true.  And without the wife of the "first black president" running this time I'd think that Bernie's actual civil rights record might be in play this time.

Even with the chaos I find a 20+ page thread on a state caucus with what 40 odd delegates at stake kind of funny itself.

Hopefully this quaint idea of the Iowa caucus kicking off the party nomination process is done!

Please guys, if a conspiracy theory doesn't include a Bush or a Kennedy it is boring!

Find it interesting that per 538 that Mayor Pete's numbers match the official numbers (so far) better than the Bernie numbers.   Fuel for the conspiracy I guess.

Don't think there is going to be much clarity from Iowa.  

 
ren hoek said:
Making the formal decision to release 62.9 percent of the results and just sit there so that Mayor Pete, with his financial & staffing relationship to the failed app developer, could soak in the ‘victory’ news cycle going into the SOTU is outrageous.  Never mind the arbitrary coin flips.  How ####### long does it take to count some votes and publish the results.  
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Damn Democrat establishment pushing the obscure gay mayor from a small town.

 
TheMagus said:
This may sound crazy, but apparently this company exists to sell more than one product that will be used one time for a caucus - they've also been working on a polling app that a few of the campaigns purchased licenses for.  I know it sounds weirder than a bunch of candidates funneling money right out in the open to try to rig Bernie out of the primary, but that's the word right now. I'm sure more and more will come out and there may be even more apps involved. 
Click to expand...
I don't know would have worked as well.  

 
Max Power said:
I don't know would have worked as well.  
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Sorry for the sarcasm but all of these conspiracy theories are kind of silly. Shadow was making and selling other election related apps and some of the campaigns bought licenses for them. 

If the Iowa caucus app is any indication of their skills, I suspect they're not using any of the software.

 
Amused to Death said:
The Dem establishment is pushing a candidate that literally has zero support from the black community? Does that make any sense?
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I have a feeling the Dem establishment wants no part of defeating Trump.  A mid term election win is rare, and Trump is a great magnet for fundraising.  

I think Bernie's a disruptor in the process.  I don't think Pete was a first choice, but Biden flopped and Warren doesn't seem to have legs as a former preferred flavor of the week.  

 
whoknew said:
Again, I'm not buying that the Dem establishment is pushing the obscure gay mayor from a small town.

Especially not when incompetence is a much more likely reason.
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Biden fell outside of the margin of cheating so they had to push Pete to keep Warren and Sanders from getting any MO before SC and the SEC states come around to resuscitate Biden.

Pete wins Iowa, Sanders wins NH, Biden wins SC and the media hype it as a three or four (Mike) horse race headed to Super Tuesday. 
 

that’s a much better narrative for them than Sanders rolling through Iowa and NH and toppling Biden’s electable status 

 
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TheMagus said:
If the Iowa caucus app is any indication of their skills, I suspect they're not using any of the software.
Click to expand...
This to me seems like an application of the two out of three rule-

  • You can have fast. 
  • You can have cheap. 
  • You can have quality.
Pick two of the three.  A couple of months, a few tens of thousands of dollars seems like the first two were chosen and delivered at the expense of the third.  Now for those that will argue that the app was so simple that it could be thrown together in a competent programmer's sleep my rebuttal is that even if the programming was one over night a couple of months is still "fast" if you also include testing, train the trainers, and train the users which all seem to have been left out in this case.

 
Bottomfeeder Sports said:
Did Trump win over a bunch of the 46 to 64  year olds?  At first glance it looked like there was an increase in youth vote (maybe there will be) but then in looking at the percentages it seems that there was increase in share among all age groups except one.  Did these folks just defect to the GOP?  Or were they busy working second shifts?  (The childcare argument doesn't seem to work here.)  Are Iowa democrats more liberal because this bracket is defecting?
Click to expand...
By the way.   Maybe I'm just discounting how many more 61 to 64 year old people (in 2016) there were compared to 41-44  year old people (again in 2016) and this is all merely a function of baby boomer birth rates.   Maybe? 

Code: 
	AGE....2004...2008...2016...2020
	17-29...17%....22%....18%....24%
	30-44...15.....18.....19.....21
	45-64...41.....38.....36.....28
	65+.....27.....22.....28.....27
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Bottomfeeder Sports said:
This to me seems like an application of the two out of three rule-

  • You can have fast. 
  • You can have cheap. 
  • You can have quality.
Pick two of the three.  A couple of months, a few tens of thousands of dollars seems like the first two were chosen and delivered at the expense of the third.  Now for those that will argue that the app was so simple that it could be thrown together in a competent programmer's sleep my rebuttal is that even if the programming was one over night a couple of months is still "fast" if you also include testing, train the trainers, and train the users which all seem to have been left out in this case.
Click to expand...
I used to have a sign hanging in my office, "Good, Fast, Cheap - you can have any two".

 
TheMagus said:
Sorry for the sarcasm but all of these conspiracy theories are kind of silly. Shadow was making and selling other election related apps and some of the campaigns bought licenses for them. 

If the Iowa caucus app is any indication of their skills, I suspect they're not using any of the software.
Click to expand...
Nevada's already bailed :lol:   

Kinda doesn't fit the narrative, but it's sorta "funny" to watch people begin building the conspiracy theory after spending years deriding others for participating in what amounts to conspiracy theories in their view.

 
The Commish said:
Nevada's already bailed :lol:   

Kinda doesn't fit the narrative, but it's sorta "funny" to watch people begin building the conspiracy theory after spending years deriding others for participating in what amounts to conspiracy theories in their view.
Click to expand...
DNC incompetence should really be the story here.  

 
Max Power said:
The Commish said:
Nevada's already bailed :lol:   

Kinda doesn't fit the narrative, but it's sorta "funny" to watch people begin building the conspiracy theory after spending years deriding others for participating in what amounts to conspiracy theories in their view.
Click to expand...
DNC incompetence should really be the story here.  
Click to expand...
meh....can't speak for anyone else, but I can appreciate all the failures all at the same time.  I don't know why it would have to be either/or  :shrug:  

I am absolutely confident it's being "lost" on some here that "the other side" is agreeing with them on this fiasco.  It has to be uncomfortable seeing people able to do that.

 
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Max Power said:
TheMagus said:
This may sound crazy, but apparently this company exists to sell more than one product that will be used one time for a caucus - they've also been working on a polling app that a few of the campaigns purchased licenses for.  I know it sounds weirder than a bunch of candidates funneling money right out in the open to try to rig Bernie out of the primary, but that's the word right now. I'm sure more and more will come out and there may be even more apps involved. 
Click to expand...
I don't know would have worked as well.  
Click to expand...
As a more thorough answer from Politifact:

On social media, some users started to speculate that what they interpreted as a victory announcement was a sign of corruption. Conspiracy theories began to spread that the election had been rigged in Buttigieg’s favor because of his connection to Shadow. 

Some claims, such as that the Iowa caucus app was funded by Buttigieg, mischaracterize what we know. 

Buttigieg’s campaign, Pete for America, Inc., paid Shadow $42,500 for "software rights and subscriptions."

Sean Savett, a spokesman for the campaign, told PolitiFact that they contracted with Shadow for text messaging services to help them contact voters. 

It was "totally unrelated" to the app Shadow built for the caucuses, he said; Buttigieg’s campaign wasn’t involved in the app’s development. 
Click to expand...

 
Wow they are dragging this out. That Bernie comeback is going to be hilarious.

I really have a feeling that's why his campaign is sticking quiet. They know they have the win based on their own data taken.

 
If Biden falls off even lower in the last 25% of returns I’m thinking this was all planned once they saw the initial results. Moral victory if Amy pulls ahead of Biden but I don’ think there are enough votes left for that to happen.

 
Shula-holic said:
Wow.  Strong showing for Pete.  He really got robbed of the story and subsequent fundraising on caucus night.
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Yes, whether he "wins" Iowa or not, it's a great showing for him (assuming he stays somewhere near this current proportion).

It's a very bad showing for Biden.

 
Nate Cohn is saying those Steyer and Patrick numbers should probably be Bernie delegates. Hopefully it gets fixed soon.

 
And how in the world did Bennet get one vote in the second round?  Does that mean there was a precinct with only 5 people?  I am confused by some of the numbers of the fringe candidates.

 
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