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🐎 *OFFICIAL 2022 Horse Racing Extravaganza Traveling Road Show Thread - Life Gettin' Better At Big Sandy* 🐎 (1 Viewer)

wikkidpissah said:
you're all wet
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Andy Asaro

@racetrackandy

Today in Louisville 52% chance of rain increasing tonight.

Friday 89% chance of rain decreasing in the evening

Saturday 24% chance of rain and overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High around 60F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.

May 5, 2022 Twitter

 
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just got off the blower with my trusted amigo/capping buddy. 

we've had major disagreements over the years that have cost us cash & long periods of no speaky to each other. 

 biggest was '09 ... he loved MTB,  but thought my Musket Man was a nag - much to his credit, he cashed nicely on the exacta, but the omission of Musket Man cost him the suitcase haul, as did my omission of MTB. 

we re-teamed for '11, and, to his credit, he put me on AK (Animal Kingdom).

he ignored me on Orb in '13.  

since then we've had decent success in the TC - no complaints about the results when we do put our noggins together. 

we spoke last week briefly, and i thumbnailed my thoughts to him, was too quick to get into anything deep. 

so ... no surprise that he is seeing this differently than me - he doesn't believe in the top end speed here, and he's playing for a meltdown. 

his $2 super ticket (pending weather):

9,10/9,10/1,14,18/1,14,18

and so it begins. 

 
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otb_lifer said:
just got off the blower with my trusted amigo/capping buddy. 

we've had major disagreements over the years that have cost us cash & long periods of no speaky to each other. 

 biggest was '09 ... he loved MTB,  but thought my Musket Man was a nag - much to his credit, he cashed nicely on the exacta, but the omission of Musket Man cost him the suitcase haul, as did my omission of MTB. 

we re-teamed for '11, and, to his credit, he put me on AK (Animal Kingdom).

he ignored me on Orb in '13.  

since then we've had decent success in the TC - no complaints about the results when we do put our noggins together. 

we spoke last week briefly, and i thumbnailed my thoughts to him, was too quick to get into anything deep. 

so ... no surprise that he is seeing this differently than me - he doesn't believe in the top end speed here, and he's playing for a meltdown. 

his $2 super ticket (pending weather):

9,10/9,10/1,14,18/1,14,18

$72

and so it begins. 
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Bring suitcases if that hits! Just haven’t seen a pace meltdown for one placing let alone top 4 for a Derby in years. Ever since the new point system. No 6F rabbits anymore.  Bold bet to think that all of those  classy high cruising speed types will melt but it could happen.  I’m going to watch how the track plays. Hearing it’s very kind to speed so far. And you’d think at least for Oaks it’s going to be sealed hard.  But I like the thinking and taking a shot for a huge score

 
 a prelim top 3 mainly based on the input of our esteemed cappers here.

#6 Messier 8-1

#12 Taiba 12-1

#7 Crown Pride 20-1

Pretty sure their final odds will be bet down from these,  but for now these are the 3 I'm taking into my annual 20 entry draw pool. Hoping for an early draft pick so they ain't all already gone.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
 a prelim top 3 mainly based on the input of our esteemed cappers here.

#6 Messier 8-1

#12 Taiba 12-1

#7 Crown Pride 20-1

Pretty sure their final odds will be bet down from these,  but for now these are the 3 I'm taking into my annual 20 entry draw pool. Hoping for an early draft pick so they ain't all already gone.
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man ... CP is giving me tons of a.g.i.t.a.

flashing back to Mendelssohn - who i left off, along with Malibu Moon, and they finished 19th & 20th - i took alotta heat slagging those 2, but it worked out. 

difference is Japan is starting to get a hold of this TBred game ... Master Fencer clunked up for a very respectable 6th a few years ago, and Japan has been lighting it up at the bigger worldwide events. 

not to mention this cat has been THE talk of the town - his work thus far has been superior to anything we've ever seen shipped - can't knock the training at all. 

gonna be awfully difficult to leave him out my tri spreads ... i do not see him winning this, but leaving him outta any vertical is starting to loom like a losing prop - and i gotta get more comfortable with that. 

 
Andy Asaro

@racetrackandy

Today in Louisville 52% chance of rain increasing tonight.

Friday 89% chance of rain decreasing in the evening

Saturday 24% chance of rain and overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High around 60F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.

May 5, 2022 Twitter

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Judge Smails said:
Bring suitcases if that hits! Just haven’t seen a pace meltdown for one placing let alone top 4 for a Derby in years. Ever since the new point system. No 6F rabbits anymore.  Bold bet to think that all of those  classy high cruising speed types will melt but it could happen.  I’m going to watch how the track plays. Hearing it’s very kind to speed so far. And you’d think at least for Oaks it’s going to be sealed hard.  But I like the thinking and taking a shot for a huge score
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Enjoy your trip bro. Very jealous 😃

 
otb_lifer said:
Andy Asaro

@racetrackandy

Today in Louisville 52% chance of rain increasing tonight.

Friday 89% chance of rain decreasing in the evening

Saturday 24% chance of rain and overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High around 60F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.

May 5, 2022 Twitter
Click to expand...
Been watching local weather and reporting from CD this morning. Rained last night. Now we have a break through noon or so. So first 3 races will be good. Track drying out now. Then heavy bands in waves the rest of the day. Hardest 4-7pm so Oaks could be a quagmire. Derby Day though looks to be cloudy, cool and just mist or light showers early am and that’s it. Track should be perfect for Derby day

 
few thoughts on the Oaks, as we await the potential muckfest that Churchill may morph into today ...

all things being equal, i would be playing the #3 Hidden Connection in all ways possible - she gave the freakish Echo Zulu all she could handle last out, and i STILL think she won ... had a bad trip, yet lost by the tiniest of nostril hairs - i think she is remarkable value at 20/1 ml, and she would be my key today - has a win over this track in last year's Pocahontas.

that changes, though, if we get the quagmire ... i'll switch to the #8 Venti Valentine in that scenario (also 20/1 ml) - i'll still use the #3, but VV has a win in the slop, and should move forward off her last out, which was a disappointing loss in the Gazelle, where she was too rushed, too soon - and it cost her.  i expect big things if the going is "off"

the #1 Secret Oath was the favorite last out in the Arkansas Derby (how weak was Oaklawn? oh, hi, Cyberknife) ... she made a very respectable middle move after having some early trouble, but, let's face it - this isn't Zenyatta or Rachel ... i think she is the best 3 yr old filly, but was overmatched, given the circumstances - not crazy about the post, but a nice redemption spot. 

pending track conditions, i key either the #3 or #8. 

both will be on the tix regardless ... as will the #1. 

i'll toss the 4, 7, 10 in as savers.

might jump to the #6 and toss the #7 if the going is choppy ... she'll havw the front end all to herself early on, and she is very familiar with this track- 30/1 ml.

 
Judge Smails said:
Been watching local weather and reporting from CD this morning. Rained last night. Now we have a break through noon or so. So first 3 races will be good. Track drying out now. Then heavy bands in waves the rest of the day. Hardest 4-7pm so Oaks could be a quagmire. Derby Day though looks to be cloudy, cool and just mist or light showers early am and that’s it. Track should be perfect for Derby day
Click to expand...


kinda hoping for some slop for the Oaks ... think some nice prices can come in, as per my post above. 

hope it's all clear for your day tomorrow. 

 
otb_lifer said:
kinda hoping for some slop for the Oaks ... think some nice prices can come in, as per my post above. 

hope it's all clear for your day tomorrow. 
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Getting my pink suit on now - ready to rock for both days. I’ll check in for some handicapping from you guys. Have you rock em

 
Ethereal Road - OUT. 

Rich Strike - IN.

- closed up the rail while chewing up decent ground last out, finishing third by six lengths in the Ruby (Tiz the Bomb).

- but did break his maiden at Churchill, winning a 30k maiden claiming 1m by 17 lengths (1:36 & change).

and then we have this tidbit in his favor: 

Horses who have shown the ability to finish fast at the end of a two-turn route race have the best chance to handle the Kentucky Derby’s testing 1 1/4-mile distance. When analyzing Derby contenders, look for horses who sprinted the final three-eighths of a mile of their final prep race in :38 seconds or less.

The data is strong: 18 of the last 24 Kentucky Derby winners successfully shaded the :38 mark in their final prep race, suggesting the ability to finish strongly is important for success on the first Saturday in May.

Derby contenders who finished their final prep in :38 seconds or less: Mo Donegal, Epicenter, Skippylongstocking, Early Voting, Rich Strike, Zozos, Tiz the Bomb, Zandon, Pioneer of Medina, Taiba, Tawny Port, and Messier.

:deadhorse:

 
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OK.  So I did the name test with my wife and two daughters (separately), and they all came up with the same horse.  I have never had 100% agreement from them, but Tiz the Bomb was the runaway leader in best named horse.  My question is, does this horse have a chance, or is it in way over its head?

 
Chaz McNulty said:
OK.  So I did the name test with my wife and two daughters (separately), and they all came up with the same horse.  I have never had 100% agreement from them, but Tiz the Bomb was the runaway leader in best named horse.  My question is, does this horse have a chance, or is it in way over its head?
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In this field, I think any horse could take it.  I don't see a generational stallion running so why not plunk a few bucks down on the longshots?  Tiz the Bomb probably in over his head, but in 2011, Animal Kingdom won coming off synthetic.  :shrug:

 
Judge Smails said:
Another chalky one but had $10 tri 2-6/2-6/1/7. $600. Not bad. It’s all speed on the dirt. First flight or nothing 
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On a heater!  Can you post these in advance of the race?  I'll blindly follow.  I'm just getting murdered in the stock market, so I need a distraction.

 
Chaz McNulty said:
OK.  So I did the name test with my wife and two daughters (separately), and they all came up with the same horse.  I have never had 100% agreement from them, but Tiz the Bomb was the runaway leader in best named horse.  My question is, does this horse have a chance, or is it in way over its head?
Click to expand...


i can make cases for about 7 horses, but can only land on 3. 

he's not one of 'em, but my 'capping buddy is including him up top on his superfecta - so there ya go. 

the price is certainly right to drop one down - have some fun with it  :thumbup:  

 
I swore off horse racing forever last year after all the Baffert crap, but addiction is a hell of a thing.  Threw $10 to win on Olympiad and off we goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.......................

 
Judge Smails said:
2 So Cal horses. Interesting 
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the 4 hasn't cranked yet this year, hoping for Gaf to truck this one in this 3rd off the bench - love the cutback to sprint. 

9 is the only in the field hitting triple digits 

both are pretty well seasoned.

 
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Wow can’t believe that 8-2 paid $37. Should have unloaded on that. Lousy $10 exacta but still a winner. Just took pictures with Gary Stevens and Chris McCarron

 
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