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1.01 rookie dynasty owners, what are you being offered? What are you selling for? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
DJackson10
Footballguy
Sounds interesting. Sounds like something a buddy of mine would be interested. He's always doing fantasy and he always does the NFL draft. Wanted to get into GM but he was poor student at school and do to his personality not the type I would say has what it takes to be anywhere close to a GM. Better as a sales rep then actually being a GM. He's incredible biased and thick headed too so Doubt he'd ever come anywhere close to it if he actually tried.Snorkelson said:
steelers1080
Footballguy
I offered Julio, 1.07, Hyde, 2019 2nd and C. Kupp for the 1.01 and was immediately rejected. No counter.
DJackson10
Footballguy
Not sure I'd have taken that even with a mancrush in fantasy for Kupp and Julio. Hyde does nothing for me honestly and at the downside of his career. I probably wouldn't have made the trade either. Depending on guys on your roster I'd have maybe countered though with something else. You're trade wasn't unreasonable though. I always hate managers who don't counter or give feedback especially when the offer was fair and not some low ball junk.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hey there are still a few more weeks for the fever to gain steam.Riffraff said:A "generation" in modern times is roughly 28 years. No way Barkley is the only high end rookie RB in nearly 30 years. Some people really put the fantasy in fantasy football.
We'll all wake up and figure out he's just a football player; maybe an above average one at that. He's not going to transcend the game and score any more than RBs already do. Rookie fever should be a DSM-V category.
I do like what I see from him more than Elliot and Elliot is a great RB with no real flaws to his game. I just find Barkley more exciting than Elliot. I still think Gurley has the best college tape of these 3 but Barkley belongs in the conversation. I think Barkley is better than Fournette, but Elliot and Cook are close to a push.
That is top 5 of the past 10 years or so in my opion after including Adrian Peterson or 6 if you count Trent Richardson who I thought was similar to Edgerrin James.
jeaton6
Footballguy
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jeaton6
Footballguy
Roughly 1.2, 1.7, 1.12, 2019 2, 1.10 for 1.1. Seems like a more than fair offer. If Barkley ends up being anything less than Zeke he will regret the rejection.
northern exposure
Footballguy
So you are equating Julio to the 1.2 rookie pick, Hyde to the 1.12 and Kupp to the 1.10 rookie pick?
tex
Footballguy
I offered the 1.5, 1.10, and the 1.12 for the 1.1. He finally countered with those 3 picks and Crabtree for the 1.1. I decided to take my chances with the 3 1sts rather than Barkley. He ended up dealing the 1.1, D'Onta Foreman, James White, and a late 2nd for Shady, Mike Evans, 1.8, and 2.8. I like Barkley but just didn't want to put all my eggs in one basket. After I thought about it I decided there will be a RB at 1.5 who could be just as good if not better than Barkley. Just don't know who it will be yet.
tex
Footballguy
So clearly the inclusion of Crabtree was a tipping point for you. Not sure he’d have prevented me from making that deal. That’s not to say holding those four assets won’t work out for you, but Crabtree/1.05/1.10/1.12 is on the cheap side of what 1.01 has gone for in this thread.I offered the 1.5, 1.10, and the 1.12 for the 1.1. He finally countered with those 3 picks and Crabtree for the 1.1. I decided to take my chances with the 3 1sts rather than Barkley. He ended up dealing the 1.1, D'Onta Foreman, James White, and a late 2nd for Shady, Mike Evans, 1.8, and 2.8. I like Barkley but just didn't want to put all my eggs in one basket. After I thought about it I decided there will be a RB at 1.5 who could be just as good if not better than Barkley. Just don't know who it will be yet.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yes that’s right. ADP wise Julio is between 1.1 and 1.2. Hyde and Kupp are between 1.5 and 1.6 but I don’t think they are actually worth that., at least not for me. Based on DLF ADP it’s a mid to late first startup pick for an early 2, 2 mid 5’s a mid 6 and a 2019 2. That kind of a package in a startup gets you the 1.1 overall pick.
Does my assessment sound as if I’m overvaluing Hyde, Kupp and Julio?
jeaton6
Footballguy
Agreed I’d pay that easy. I’ve offered 1.2, 1.6, 1.7, 1.8 and got rejection w/o counter. If that doesn’t get it done I just can’t imagine anything will. I’m done offering at this point.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
You messed up. Take the easy value deals when you can and then just flip it if you want. You coulda made that deal for evans, mccoy, and the pick which is much better than what u woulda had to give for pick 1.I offered the 1.5, 1.10, and the 1.12 for the 1.1. He finally countered with those 3 picks and Crabtree for the 1.1. I decided to take my chances with the 3 1sts rather than Barkley. He ended up dealing the 1.1, D'Onta Foreman, James White, and a late 2nd for Shady, Mike Evans, 1.8, and 2.8. I like Barkley but just didn't want to put all my eggs in one basket. After I thought about it I decided there will be a RB at 1.5 who could be just as good if not better than Barkley. Just don't know who it will be yet.
In a 12-team dynasty, 0.5 PPR, I offered one of Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, AJ Green, Amari Cooper or Brandin Cooks plus the 1.09 for the 1.01. He sold to another owner for the 1.02, 2.02 and some blind-bidding cash. I made the same offer to the new owner but he loves Barkley.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I’m convinced 50% of FF owners literally don’t know what they are doing. Your story above reconfirms this!
onionsack
Footballguy
1.01 owners in my own leagues [very deep rosters/PPR/IDP] are all asking for a king's ransom now, and seem very confident that Barkley is not just a generational talent, but the best back to have ever stepped on an NFL field [the fact that he's not actually stepped on one yet notwithstanding], and his induction to Canton a foregone conclusion. [Sample offer: "What about Le'Veon Bell?" "Well, throw in your first round rookie pick and we can start talking.." 
] Seems crazy to pay these exorbitant prices for him now in terms of picks and players. His pre-draft value seems wildly inflated, so why not wait until at least the possibility of a slight draft fall, a less-than-ideal landing spot, the first fumble, bad game, injury, or any of the other hundred possibilities that could make him cheaper to acquire in the future? With so many other starting spots in my leagues, I'm pretty much resigned (not content, mind you!) to letting someone else pay what it would take to acquire just one very promising rookie.
] Seems crazy to pay these exorbitant prices for him now in terms of picks and players. His pre-draft value seems wildly inflated, so why not wait until at least the possibility of a slight draft fall, a less-than-ideal landing spot, the first fumble, bad game, injury, or any of the other hundred possibilities that could make him cheaper to acquire in the future? With so many other starting spots in my leagues, I'm pretty much resigned (not content, mind you!) to letting someone else pay what it would take to acquire just one very promising rookie.
northern exposure
Footballguy
I have no gripe with your valuation for Julio, but some here seem to think he is on his last legs. I wouldn't put Kupp equal to the 1.10 pick. I guess we don't know if it is a ppr league or not, but in ppr Kupp is closer to 1.10 than in non-ppr. In non-ppr I see Kupp equal to more like a 2nd.
I'm not sold on Hyde so I would value him more like a mid 2nd pick.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I've felt like the last remaining Hyde fan but even I don't think he's worth the 6 right now.
After the browns don't draft a RB, he'll be worth a first imo but at 28 and in Cleveland good luck getting even the 1.12.
jeaton6
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
MFL has him as 26 (turning 27 on that date). It's weird how sometimes these guys have different ages using different sources.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It would take more than Bell to get 1.01 in the league I am rebuilding and I am no Barkley truther. I don't know where your 1st is but Bell and 1.12 wouldn't do it for me either - 1.08, maybe. There's an excellent chance he doesn't outscore Bell ever, but there's a close enough chance he does that the extra 5 years of youth make up for it.1.01 owners in my own leagues [very deep rosters/PPR/IDP] are all asking for a king's ransom now, and seem very confident that Barkley is not just a generational talent, but the best back to have ever stepped on an NFL field [the fact that he's not actually stepped on one yet notwithstanding], and his induction to Canton a foregone conclusion. [Sample offer: "What about Le'Veon Bell?" "Well, throw in your first round rookie pick and we can start talking.."
And even if Barkley does have a slight post-draft fall, that will recover and then some by the time rookie drafts roll around. Same thing happened with Gurley. Early discussion there were the concerns of the OLine and the system/Fisher but those got whooshed right out with his hype - I know, because I drafted in in 3/3 leagues at the time. The only difference is I wasn't getting the level of absurdness the Barkley offers are (well look to be, I haven't gotten one yet).
The time to acquire Barkley is now, while there is still a pre-draft risk, because that's the only tactic left that even has a remote chance to work, and once rookie drafts roll around it's gonna get even worse.
In one league, I offered 1.02 and Hunt in a casual conversation just to gauge his response - "generational talent" was what I got. I wouldn't have given it but I wouldn't have needed much of a kickback either as I'm notoriously low on/eager to move Hunt.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Hyde graduated high school in 2009 so if he was born in 1991 he'd be an extremely young 17 at graduation. More likely, and wiki shows, that he was born in 1990. I've never cared so much about actual age as much as mileage. I love "old" RB's that get cheap as fast as they do - looking forward to getting Shady for 2nd rounders this year.
I don't really think there is a "peak" for RBs in terms of age. I'm sure they get better at pass blocking and some guys have to learn patience, but generally speaking, RBs almost seem binary. They've got it until they don't. Chris Johnson "peaked" at 24. Thomas Jones at 30. Clinton Portis at 22. Curtis Martin at 31.
It's kind of crazy that the last noteworthy fantasy season for Portis was age 27 and for CJ2k it was age 28.
In the past 10 seasons, only Thomas Jones, McGahee, Peterson, Gore, Blount, and Ricky have rushed for over 1000 yards at age 30 or older. If we move it to 29, we only add McCoy, Forsett, Turner, LT, SJax, Benson, and Jamal Lewis.
So I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope of getting more than 3 years out of DJ.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
I don’t think you can just assign pick value for the players. You’re not getting the pick, you’re getting the player, and there’s no guarantee anyone wants to give you anything for hyde or Kupp or julio. Offer julio for the 1.02, he declines, now he’s worth 1.03 at best. Sure on paper you do have he math and it adds up, but I’m real life you get a few years of wr1, whatever you think hyde in Cleveland is ( Barkley’s backup even) a young wr2/3 in ppr, 1.07 and an unknown 2019 2. It’s not an auto accept if you don’t like the players.jeaton6 said:
jeaton6
Footballguy
I’m thinking more about them peaking athletically but my sense is around 26 probably also tends to be where they have their best seasons on avg as well. I’d read something a couple years ago on this and I believe on average 25/26/27 RBs had their top production. My main point is I don’t really understand how a 26 yo is considered to be on the “downside” of his career. Unless it’s defined as career is likely more than half way done.FF Ninja said:
I guess because you typically get some good fantasy years between 21-26, but historically things get a lot more dicey after 27.. and he turns 27 this year.
As for peak production, 99% of that is situation. I don't think Thomas Jones really peaked physically at age 30. His situation just got better. I feel confident that DJ's situation peaked for his age 25 season. This year isn't shaping up as badly as it could have, but he probably won't be going into free agency on a high note.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Well you have to start somewhere. So assigning a directional pick value seems as reasonable as anything to assess the value of the deal given we aren’t in the head of the other guy. At the end of the day it comes down to what the guy you’re dealing with thinks of the players you are dealing him. If he likes them and values them in or around that vicinity then it works if he doesn’t then the guy trying to acquire 1.1 is wasting his time.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Just noticed above I tried to say “in real life” and it autocorrected to “I’m real life”, which makes it sound like I think you’re in fantasy land. That’s not the case. It’s a reasonable offer.
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DJackson10
Footballguy
DJackson10
Footballguy
Most owners don't. My Friend plays in a keeper league with his one former co worker a money league. They both brag how good they are and win every year. Probably is the other people in the league don't know WTF they are doing. His buddy had a trade accepted in his favor obviously that any league with owners who knew what they were doing the trade would've been vetoed off in 10 mins it was so lopsided. I told both of them they should join the league I'm in because I doubt either one would even break even in my league. Some guys obviously think that sort of move makes them smart but it honestly makes you a complete jackass and arrogant ########. That's not playing Fantasy well it's using managers who don't know what they are doing to your advantage and honestly if I was in a league ever with owners like that I'd probably quite in after the season.jeaton6 said:
DJackson10
Footballguy
I wish I could but the guy in my league who has him is a heck of a fantasy owner and may not give him up.Hankmoody said:
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
Getting the good end of a deal doesn’t make one a jackass or arrogant.
Personally, I wouldn’t play in a league where owners can veto trades. Especially in dynasty or keeper leagues, owners have their own reasons for making deals.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So when someone trades pick 1 for picks 18 and 60, you are ok with it? I am perfectly fine with leagues that veto as long as the person in charge of the vetos is rational.
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
tex
Footballguy
No that's not what I was saying. I just came to the conclusion in my mind that the 3 players I can get with those picks will make my team better than Barkley alone would--provided that I make wise picks of course.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Should probably have come to the conclusion that you could have flipped Barkley for more than you would have given to get him.No that's not what I was saying. I just came to the conclusion in my mind that the 3 players I can get with those picks will make my team better than Barkley alone would--provided that I make wise picks of course.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is a conclusion one could draw if you are just looking at the age of the players in relation to their performance for fantasy football.
Another way to look at it however instead of age is by the season of their career in the NFL. According to the research I did on this the 3rd season of a RBs career was their best season on average. The rookie season was the weakest performance on average of the RBs first six seasons in the league and most saw a drop off in performance relative to the field in their seventh and subsequent seasons.
There are always exceptions and outliers to any average, but I found this to be pretty consistent using the entire pool of RB players who had fantasy relevant seasons of their career that their best seasons were their first six seasons in the NFL.
40% of the RB entered the league at age 22 so the 7th season for these players is age 28. 30% of them entered the league at age 21 so the 7th season for them is age 27. These two ages repreent 70% of the entire sample, so age 26-27 is the age most of them are hitting their 7th season in the league.
jeaton6
Footballguy
So on average using this method Hyde has a couple of seasons left as well. I’d be interested to see what the production curve looks like looking at it this way, do you have anything you can share?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I already linked the entire study.
The average number of top 12 seasons is two. In standard scoring Hyde has a RB 15 and RB 11 finish already. He might not do that well again in his career, but if he does it will likely be in the next two seasons.
