Voted for "Trump Survives Impeachment and Wins 2020 Election".
Here's why:
1. Trump will never lose his base. Ever.
2. The impeachment will not help him, but it won't hurt him either, because...
3. He's going to take down Biden with his phony "Joe Biden needs to be investigated!" act.
4. That will leave Liz Warren as the Democratic candidate.
5. Liz Warren will lose bigly because this country is not ready for a female liberal president. They might accept a male liberal, but not a female liberal.
I'm late to this, but I voted survives/loses. He obviously survives because Moscow Mitch and the gang are traitors. Party over country. Despicable people. Anyway, I think you should be more optimistic about him losing for a few reasons:
1. He will never lose his
hardcore base. Ever. But his base has shrunk. I personally know a few people that voted for him in 2016 that won't vote for him in 2020 (on the flip side I don't know a single person that didn't vote for him that would even consider him). However, if he's impeached and someone like Mitt runs, I'm 99% sure they (the people that voted trump in '16) will vote for him. So I actually think the
best odds of a Dem winning 2020 is if trump survives impeachment.
2. Impeachment hearing will hurt him because it's just more negative news, motivating more people to vote him out of office if he scams his way out of being impeached. There are more Dems that don't show up to vote than Republicans, so negative press is good. Also, the more proof that pops up, the worse the Republican senators will look for selling their soul to not impeach. This is off topic, but we could see the Senate majority flip. It's an uphill battle for sure, but point #3 could easily produce this result.
3. The 2018 mid-terms saw an unprecedented surge of youth voting and it
heavily favored Dems. This trend will absolutely continue into 2020. Some will only vote for the presidential race, but if enough vote on congress, too, that's when we could see some unexpected Senate seats flip.
4. Last (and possibly least), true independents (those of us who voted Gary/Jill last time) will vote for Liz. We don't have a choice really. I knew trump was a garbage human and I knew he'd be bad for the country, but I had more faith in our checks and balances than I should have. I thought for sure he'd be successfully impeached before now and that he couldn't do the damage he has, but I was wrong. I think we all realize this and the
vast majority of us will vote blue this time.
Remember, he won by razor thin margins last time... he'll be losing some votes, the Dems will be gaining youth votes, and the independents will pick the non-trump side. I honestly think this will be a landslide and would not even be shocked to see states not considered swing states actually swing, such as Texas.
His base was 100% energized in 2016. It may not have seen much, but there's certainly been some attrition. On the other side of things, his corruption, ineptitude, and bigotry has energized not the left, but the center and the apathetics. Remember, 2016 featured the two least liked candidates of all time. Warren might not be universally popular, but she's not nearly as disliked as Hillary.
For the reasons stated above, I still think Warren can win even if trump is successfully impeached and someone like Romney ends up running. It'll be a lot closer, but I think people will turn out to vote against the people that lacked enough spine to stand up to the most corrupt, inept president of all time. As a true independent that used to be mostly apathetic with a rightward lean, I'll be waiting a full generation before I consider another Republican. The current bootlickers are dead to me.
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