I'm in a situation where I don't have the #2 pick, but there's a decent chance, because of the league I'm in and the QB heavy scoring that I'll be picking RB2.
It's such a difficult question to answer this year.
I'm pretty much ruling out Foster. And I like Ray Rice, but I'm not sure he offers the upside this year (even though his floor is probably the safest).
With him out of the equation it's down to
-Martin
-Spiller
-Charles
-McCoy
-Richardson
-Lynch
Lynch I'm kind of out on because it's 0.5 PPR and that shrinks his contribution for fantasy a little. Spiller I've been dropping in recent weeks due to the Bills offensive situation, concerns about whether he'd hold up with a full workload, and concerns about what Jackson's role will ultimately be.
I know Martin is the consensus #2 for a lot of people, but I just don't think he's as talented as the other three, nor do I think he's in nearly as stable an offensive situation (can't believe I'm actually considering the Cleveland offense more stable than TB).
So it's likely going to be one out of McCoy, Charles, and Richardson, and what makes it so tough, is they all basically have the same things going for them:
-New offenses which should be favorable to them and utilize them well in both the run and pass game.
-Good offensive lines
-Not an alarming amount of mileage like a Foster.
I'm a little concerned any gains Charles makes in the passing game will be negated because Andy Reid will probably cut the number of rushing attempts KC backs get on the whole versus last year.
A really like McCoy, but I'm having trouble getting past this gut feeling that this is the year Richardson busts out AP style. The guy is the most talented back since AP. He went through a grueling Alabama year and then into a grueling first year with Cleveland, but he's healthy, he's lost some weight which should help his quickness, and he's a punishing runner.
Add Norv's track record to the mix, and if Weeden is competent enough just to make teams have to respect the deep balls to Gordon and Little, it could be a monster year .