They probably will NOT draft Simpson. I'll cut and paste from the last Evilgrin mock where he tried Darnell Bing here. The same comments can be applied to Simpson. BOMBS AWAY!!!!!!!!
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As a Dallas "homer", I'll add my voice to those comments about Bing. I agree with your analysis that he may end up as the #2 safety behind Huff. He is a bigtime playmaker and that is something that Parcells covets. The problem with Bing, however, (as has been pointed out already), is that he is too similar to Roy Williams. They are both strong safeties. Polamalu, Reed, and Taylor are strong safety as well. They all do their best work creating havoc in the box.
Dallas needs a deep safety. A coverage safety. A free safety. A QB of the secondary. That is not a position that is taken in the first round. A playmaking havoc-creating guy, yes. A center fielder, no.
Who would be better at reading offenses, diagnosing pass paterns, and getting other guys into position? A rookie strong safety converting to free safety or an experienced vet like a Chris Hope or a Corey Chavous? The answer is obviously the latter, and thats how I think Dallas will solve its safety problem.
Now who will Dallas draft? Its got to be a RT, doesnt it? That position held the entire offense hostage last year, forcing them into max-protect schemes all the time. Thats gotta be the first round pick, right? Right? RIGHT?????
I doubt it. In 19 seasons as a head coach, Parcells' teams have never drafted a tackle in the first round. Parcells stated in a press conference during the season that tackles and WRs have the highest bust rates of first rounders. Its much more likely that the RT problem is addressed with a FA like a Tom Ashworth or John Runyan. Notwithstanding a FA pickup, I'd be surprised if Dallas didnt draft Oline in rounds 2 and/or 3. I also think McNeill is a Flozell Adams clone and will get some consideration.
So they draft a WR, right? Keyshawn and Glenn are older than dirt! I doubt it. See Parcells' comments on first round OT and WR bust rates. Plus, this year's WR crop is poor. Again, not likely.
Ok, so no safety, OT, or WR in round 1, who do they draft?
Defensive front seven. WHAT?, They got Ware, Spears, Canty, James and all of them! Yep. And they need a complement to Ware at OLB, a NT under 30, and wouldn't mind an upgrade at the other ILB spot opposite James. Couple that with the fact that Parcells' teams have drafted defensive front seven more than any other spots in the first round with the values likely to be on the board at 18, and you have one of 3 likely picks.
1) Bobby Carpenter
2) Gabe Watson
3) Manny Lawson
Carpenter has the versatility to play multiple positions in a 3-4. He has the size that Parcells covets (~255 lbs).
Watson is a space eater that every 3-4 needs. Dallas' current NTs are Jason Ferguson, LaRoi Glover, and Thomas Johnson. Only Ferguson is over 300 lbs. Only Johnson, a converted DE undrafted rookie free agent last year, is under 30. Glover has personally stated that he doesnt think he will be back next year. Does a 30+ year old and a former rookie free agent seem like depth at a critical position for the 3-4? Not to me either. Thats where Watson comes in. It should be noted that Dallas spent a LONG time talking with him at the Senior Bowl. Know who they spent a LONG time talking with last year? DeMarcus Ware. Don't be surprised if Dallas calls Watson's name come April.
Lawson is a converted 4-3 DE speed rusher who Dallas also spent a lot of time talking to at the Senior Bowl. If Carpenter is off the board at 18 (and also assuming Hawk and Greenway are long gone), Lawson might be the guy for Dallas. Personally, I'd like to see them try to trade down if both Carpenter and Watson are gone, but Lawson would be a likely pick if they can't.
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That post was from before the combine. Now, I'd put Lawson and Carpenter on even footing with Watson third. Essentially, Lawson is the more explosive athelete, Carpenter the more experienced and versatile linebacker.
Based on the combine, Lawson is even more explosive than Ware. But he would need to be taught to play standing up, as Ware had to last year. So in the short term, he might struggle a bit. But I can see the benefit of making defenses guess which of these two (Lawson and Ware) would be coming after the QB each down. Not a fun thing for an offense to gameplan around.
Carpenter is an experienced linebacker. He is more versatile right now. He could conceivably move inside if needed. Parcells loves versatility. So I could see him going here as well.
Personally, I like the pincher image of Lawson and Ware better than Carpenter and Ware. So put me down for Lawson.