200 Yard Performances ... (1 Viewer)

[Dancing Bear]

With these recent 200 yard performances in 2012 :

WR : Brian Hartline, Miami Dolphins

WR : Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts

RB : Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs

RB : Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants

I got to wondering ... how often do these stellar performances occur? ... and how often do they mean VICTORY?

Bradshaw's performance was only the 135th time a RB has run for 200 or more yards in a game.

Wayne's performance was only the 145th time a WR has caught 200 or more yards in a game.

I think how this translates to victory for the team will surprise you ...

 

[Statcruncher]

I'm guessing the RB's 200 yard would be a good indicator of milking a lead so good winning %. The WR's game on the other hand would probably be down early picking up easy yards versus a soft defense, so bad winning %. Just my gut feeling, I'm too lazy to look it up.

 

[Dancing Bear]

I'm guessing the RB's 200 yard would be a good indicator of milking a lead so good winning %. The WR's game on the other hand would probably be down early picking up easy yards versus a soft defense, so bad winning %. Just my gut feeling, I'm too lazy to look it up.

Your gut feeling & logic here are reasonable.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I'm guessing the RB's 200 yard would be a good indicator of milking a lead so good winning %. The WR's game on the other hand would probably be down early picking up easy yards versus a soft defense, so bad winning %. Just my gut feeling, I'm too lazy to look it up.

I agree with this logic as well. However, I also think that 200 yard rushing perfomances can come from a team being WAY down to the point that the other team D is selling out the pass so bad that the RB for the down team breaks off 2-3 50 or 60 + yard runs and ends up with 200 total. Not likely, but a possible scenario.

 

[emge]

Since 2000

RB who have combined rushing and receiving for 200+ yards

121/146 have resulted in a win

RB who have rushed for 200+ yards

56/58 have resulted in a win

WR/TE who have received 200+ yards (only 1 TE)

21/40 have resulted in a win

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I think how this translates to victory for the team will surprise you ...

I looked up the stats at PFR and I don't think the results are surprising. Others have already provided the reasoning.Sort of related, I always hate when commentators say something like, "[TEAM] is 12-0 when [THEIR RB] rushes for over 100 yards," as if the RB rushing for 100 yards is why they won. In reality, it's frequently the other way around - the RB ran for 100+ yards because they were winning. (Well, actually, it's a combination of the two, but you get the point.)

It seems there is a surprising result I found, though, perhaps OP can confirm:

Spoiler

Five of the games in which a player went over 200 receiving yards ended in a tie! Most recently, this happened in 2002 - Plaxico Burress had 253 receiving yards as the Steelers tied the Falcons 34-34.

 

[donkshow]

Since 2000

RB who have combined rushing and receiving for 200+ yards

121/146 have resulted in a win

RB who have rushed for 200+ yards

56/58 have resulted in a win

WR/TE who have received 200+ yards (only 1 TE)

21/40 have resulted in a win

Boom.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Since 2000RB who have combined rushing and receiving for 200+ yards121/146 have resulted in a winRB who have rushed for 200+ yards56/58 have resulted in a winWR/TE who have received 200+ yards (only 1 TE)21/40 have resulted in a win

Although my sample size is the entire NFL history book, your percentages are nearly the same as mine.Mine are :94.8% for victories when a RB reaches 200 or more yards.60.7% for victories when a WR reaches 200 or more yards.Although I certainly can agree with Statcruncher's reasoning, I am still surprised, and I would never have imagined such a low margin of victory for the team when a WR accomplishes 200 or more yards!Regarding Ignoratio Elenchi surprise, there have been 6 such incidences all for WR's ...Some additional observations ...1) For Home vs Away, it is split 60-40 for the RB with an advantage to the Home field, but it is essentially 50-50 for the WR!2) A majority of RB instances occur in the month of December [36%], while a majority of WR instances occur in October [30%].3) More than 50% of the RB instances are by repeat rushers! Whereas only 40% of the WR are repeaters.4) 1 RB has done it 6 times [O.J. Simpson] 1 RB has done it 5 times [Tiki Barber] 5 RB's have done it 4 times [LaDanian Tomlinson, Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Earl Campbell & Jim Brown] 2 WR have done this 5 times [Jerry Rice & Lance Alworth] 2 WR have done this 4 times [Charley Hennigan & Don Hutson]

 

[SSOG]

Since 2000

RB who have combined rushing and receiving for 200+ yards

121/146 have resulted in a win

RB who have rushed for 200+ yards

56/58 have resulted in a win

WR/TE who have received 200+ yards (only 1 TE)

21/40 have resulted in a win

I remember that game. Great game. I'm a little surprised that no other TEs have managed the feat since then.

 

[DoubleG]

This thread explains exactly why in FF it's better to have RBs on teams that have good defenses and WRs/QBs on teams that have awful defenses. All else being fairly equal, of course.

If I have two guys close to each other, in terms of who to start that week, aside from matchup versus their position, I will also try to evaluate which team I think will win the game.