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2007 Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Duke1948
- Start date
Benchwarmers
Footballguy
Thanks for the comments. Keep them coming.
Tenacious D
Footballguy
RBs for the 2007 NFL Draft from my Feb. piece on Chaos Commish's blog
* = underclassman eligible for 2007 draft
Blue Chips
Six guys appear to have the best combination of measurables, achievement, recognition, and situation that they should be considered the top prospects at RB for the 2007 as of now.
*Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma – upside is too high to consider his stock falling, despite struggles of this past season. If he can put academic and ankle problems behind him this year, he resumes being the front-runner to be the first RB selected in 2007 that he looked like as a true freshman in 2004.
Michael Bush, Louisville – super-sized TD-machine likely to have been a Day One pick if he declared this year. The Cardinals high-powered offense should keep his name prominent on draft boards through this season.
Kenny Irons, Auburn – lost in the disarray at South Carolina at the end of the Lou Holtz era, he wisely chose to not drop down a level to be able play right away. After sitting out a year, all he came back to do was lead the SEC in rushing.
*Marshawn Lynch, California – a broken finger slowed what should have been a breakout out 2005, but he finished very strong and displayed the same sick running skills as a feature back he flashed as J.J. Arrington’s back-up in 2004.
Tony Hunt, Penn State – steadily improved since taking over the Nittany Lions running game in 2004. He was overshadowed by the bigger story of PSU’s return to glory last year. With very good measurables and continued production, he won’t be overlooked on draft boards.
Kenneth Darby, Alabama – durability has been a problem for the Tide’s homerun hitter in the backfield, but if he remains healthy in 2006, he is one of the top senior prospects.
Stock Falling
Not long ago, these three seemed to be future headliners among RB draft prospects. For various reasons explained below, I’m bearish on their outlook at this time. They remain contenders to be Day One picks, but need a big 2006 to regain their lost value.
Lorenzo Booker, Florida State – Booker came on the scene as HS recruiting was truly entering the overexposed era we are still in. So far, hype has been greater than production. Despite Leon Washington out of the way, the offense is being overhauled and Antone Smith, was already knocking on the door in 2005.
DeShawn Wynn, Florida – wasn’t a smooth transition into either HC Urban Meyer’s offense or good graces for Wynn in 2005. Youth may have passed him, as Ketshahn Moore got the start in the Outback Bowl.
Tyrone Moss, Miami – I don’t think his upside is anywhere near the quality of the recent string of future NFL RB studs the Hurricanes were regularly cranking out, and he is coming off a blown knee. Promising young backs are lined up behind him and ready to impress in the spring game, which Moss should be held out of due to the knee.
Sleepers
Potential and situation for a huge 2006 to showcase their skills and move up draft boards.
*Lynell Hamilton, San Diego State – as a true freshman in 2003, he showed potential as an Aztec runner not scene since Marshall Faulk was on campus. However, a severe leg injury cost him 2004 and didn’t look the same in 2005. A return to form in 2006 will have scouts jumping quickly back on his bandwagon.
Alley Broussard, LSU – a torn ACL ruined what should have been a big season paving the way for him to play on Sundays. Instead, his back-up Joseph Addai stepped up and is now looked at as a possible Day One pick. If the knee is healthy, he should quickly get back on the radar as a bruising power runner in a marquee program.
Thomas Clayton, Kansas State – the former FSU recruit overcame a torn ACL and being stuck behind Darren Sproles to start 2005 as one of the top rushers in the country. However, a minor legal issue derailed him and then the running game fell apart. If he can get off to a good start with HC Ron Prince and get another chance to be the featured runner, with his outstanding speed, his draft stock could quickly climb again.
*Mike Hart, Michigan – after a breakout true freshman year in 2005, he had a disappointing encore this past season due to injuries. Already smaller than ideal for the next level, he needs to prove durability isn’t a problem with a return to health and elite production. If he does, he could be an early entrant, but I think his measurables leave a bit to be desired and he would be best served by staying four years.
Garrett Wolfe, Northern Illinois – followed in the footsteps of Michael Turner as one the most productive, and most overlooked, runners in the nation. Unlike Turner, he does not have ideal size. He is tiny by NFL standards, but has elite speed. A good candidate to lead the nation in rushing, he’ll get some more pub in 2006, but his size will likely prevent him from being an early pick.
*Darius Walker, Notre Dame – emerged as a true freshman and further built on that success in 2005. With the ND hype-machine back in full force, coverage and pub will not be a problem in helping his draft stock, he just needs to continue bringing the production.
Deep Sleepers
Under the radar, some who could sneak their way up with a big 2006 performance.
Courtney Lewis, Texas A&M – career has been going in reverse since being a redshirt Freshman All-American in 2003. Consistency and durability a problem, but talent is there.
Ronnie McGill, North Carolina – a torn chest muscle working out prior to the 2005 season prevented a breakout year, but he returned and finished as the team’s leading rusher. Another guy for which durability a problem, but he has good measurables and has shown flashes.
Brian Leonard, Rutgers – FB tweener is a good runner and led the team in receiving in 05. Reportedly give a mid-round ranking by the NFL Advisory Board if he declared early for this year’s draft. Could be the next Mike Alstott.
*Albert Young, Iowa – recovered well from a torn ACL in 2004 to go over 1K rushing in 2005. With Iowa in shape to again be a BCS contender, he should get plenty of coverage and a lot more recognition in 2006.
*Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State – broke out in 2005, now needs some pub, in addition to continued production, to work his way up draft boards.
REM Sleepers
Talented underclassmen who are a long shot to declare early and a some forgotten seniors who could surprise.
*Thomas Brown and *Danny Ware, Georgia – this tandem took off as true freshmen in 2004 and repeated their success in 2005. While not Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown, the Bulldog duo are finding the early success in the tough SEC that makes them high-profile underclassmen. However, the return of Kregg Lumpkim further limited touches and none had truly impressive numbers last year. Still, one or both are legitimate breakout candidates for 2006, which would make early entry appealing to avoid another year of cannibalizing each others numbers.
*Tony Pittman, Ohio State – one man’s loss (Maurice Clarrett) is another man’s gain. Pittman took advantage of his opportunity in 2004, followed it up with a nice 2005, and it’s not unrealistic he could have an even bigger 2006. If he does, the smart move would be to jump with a talented pair of Wells’s behind him. I’m not confident he will improve on last year because I don’t think he is an elite talent, but on an explosive offense for a national champ contender, he can ride the coattails with health and hard work.
*Amir Pinnix, Minnesota – with the unfortunate turn of events in the career of Gary Russell, Pinnix jumps from the Waiting Room to a sleeper. He and Russell were expected to form the next superstar Gopher tandem this fall, now Pinnix seems to be in the driver’s seat to be the feature back. Unlike Russell, he hasn’t had much of chance to show his potential can become production, but he has a tremendous opportunity. Even if he blows up in 2006, that will just get him on the NFL radar and it’s likely he’d return for his last year of eligibility. However, the way HC Glen Mason is stacking talented recruits in the backfield, the pattern has been to bolt early while you are hot, similar to what was going on at Miami a few years ago.
*Gary Russell, Minnesota – the Gophers have become quite an RB factory, with each new model seeming to be an improvement on the impressive previous one. He brought better size and more power than his predecessors, seemingly without any less speed or skill. 2006 looked to be Russell’s turn to blow up, but his academic standing threatens his path to the NFL. I had included him as a Blue Chip when I started compiling this list last week, but he has since withdrawn from the university over academic standing. While it appears he will attempt to rectify his problems in junior college over the spring and summer to be eligible for the fall, reports are it doesn’t look promising. He’s not ready for the NFL yet, but I’d be less surprised to see opt for the supplemental draft than play for the Gophers again.
*Jamario Thomas, North Texas – led the nation in rushing in 2004, but was hampered by injury in 2005 and couldn’t find a rhythm with the return of Patrick Cobbs. Unlike Cobbs, Thomas has a nice package of measurables. Returning to prolific production could make him greedy, but he won’t get much recognition in the Sun Belt.
Pierre Thomas, Illinois – all-purpose threat led the Big Ten in total yards in 2004 on an impotent Illinois team. Unlikely to help his profile stuck in RBBC and likely to be passed by top 2005 recruit Rashard Mendenhall in 2006.
Herschel Dennis, USC – before his legal problems and blown knee, it’s easy to forget he kept a young Reggie Bush and LenDale White in supporting roles for a year. Opportunity is there if he can once again hold off talented youth.
Waiting Room
An injury to the player(s) in front of them away from an opportunity to be fast risers in 2006.
Austin Scott, PSU – in the same recruiting class as Hunt, Scott was originally viewed as the next feature back as a true freshman in 2003. Hunt quickly passed him, but Scott showed he could still be The Man when he successfully replaced an injured Hunt in the Orange Bowl.
Justin Vincent, LSU – it’s been a long time since Vincent was the leading rusher and Sugar Bowl MVP as a redshirt freshman for the national champions. His career has gone in reverse, but the status of Broussard’s knee leaves the door open for him to rebound in a big way this season.
Kolby Smith, Louisville – he could have been a feature back for a lot of other teams, but has been stuck in backfield crowded with talent.
*Ramonce Taylor, Texas – Jamaal Charles moved to the front of the line as a true freshman in 2005, but Taylor was is a key multi-purpose threat and is more of a home run threat.
Selvin Young, Texas – durability cost him the opportunity to follow Cedric Benson as the next great Longhorn runner in 2005. Now he’s been passed by youth and seeing limited touches in a deep RBBC.
*Kregg Lumpkin, Georgia – after a strong showing as a true freshman in 2003, a torn ACL prior to the 2004 season opened the door for Thomas Brown and Danny Ware and derailed Lumpkin’s career. He remained behind that dynamic duo in 2005, so it isn’t just one guy he’d have to pass. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him transfer to D-IAA.
*Justin Forsett, California – the Bear running game didn’t miss a beat when Marshawn Lynch was out.
Marcus O’Keith, California – home run hitter with good size has been stuck behind a talented string of backs his whole collegiate career. He could impress if ever given the chance.
Small School
Five players jump out at me as the best bets to be the rare sub-division I-A to have their names in the mix as draft prospects at RB.
Clifton Dawson, Harvard – likely to end his career as the most productive Ivy League RB, and possibly the most productive DI-AA, ever. Originally a Northwestern recruit, so he has good enough measurables and skills to have played at a higher level.
Germaine Race, Pittsburgh State – the DII dynamo continues to dominate. With good measurables, a final year of eye-popping numbers will keep his name in circulation.
Arkee Whitlock, Southern Illinois – this is the man who kept NYG Brandon Jacobs in a situational role when they played together in 2004. The undersized talent has held back D-IA transfers and top to recruits to continue driving the offense for one of the top D-IAA programs the last few years.
Steve Baylark, UMass – solid measurables and consistently tremendous production in DI-AA make him one of the favorites to be a token small school back on the NFL radar.
*Jamar Brittingham, Bloomsburg – former Rutgers recruit couldn’t take care of the books to showcase his skills with the big boys, but has been unstoppable in DII with over 2K and 32 TDs in 2005.
* = underclassman eligible for 2007 draft
Blue Chips
Six guys appear to have the best combination of measurables, achievement, recognition, and situation that they should be considered the top prospects at RB for the 2007 as of now.
*Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma – upside is too high to consider his stock falling, despite struggles of this past season. If he can put academic and ankle problems behind him this year, he resumes being the front-runner to be the first RB selected in 2007 that he looked like as a true freshman in 2004.
Michael Bush, Louisville – super-sized TD-machine likely to have been a Day One pick if he declared this year. The Cardinals high-powered offense should keep his name prominent on draft boards through this season.
Kenny Irons, Auburn – lost in the disarray at South Carolina at the end of the Lou Holtz era, he wisely chose to not drop down a level to be able play right away. After sitting out a year, all he came back to do was lead the SEC in rushing.
*Marshawn Lynch, California – a broken finger slowed what should have been a breakout out 2005, but he finished very strong and displayed the same sick running skills as a feature back he flashed as J.J. Arrington’s back-up in 2004.
Tony Hunt, Penn State – steadily improved since taking over the Nittany Lions running game in 2004. He was overshadowed by the bigger story of PSU’s return to glory last year. With very good measurables and continued production, he won’t be overlooked on draft boards.
Kenneth Darby, Alabama – durability has been a problem for the Tide’s homerun hitter in the backfield, but if he remains healthy in 2006, he is one of the top senior prospects.
Stock Falling
Not long ago, these three seemed to be future headliners among RB draft prospects. For various reasons explained below, I’m bearish on their outlook at this time. They remain contenders to be Day One picks, but need a big 2006 to regain their lost value.
Lorenzo Booker, Florida State – Booker came on the scene as HS recruiting was truly entering the overexposed era we are still in. So far, hype has been greater than production. Despite Leon Washington out of the way, the offense is being overhauled and Antone Smith, was already knocking on the door in 2005.
DeShawn Wynn, Florida – wasn’t a smooth transition into either HC Urban Meyer’s offense or good graces for Wynn in 2005. Youth may have passed him, as Ketshahn Moore got the start in the Outback Bowl.
Tyrone Moss, Miami – I don’t think his upside is anywhere near the quality of the recent string of future NFL RB studs the Hurricanes were regularly cranking out, and he is coming off a blown knee. Promising young backs are lined up behind him and ready to impress in the spring game, which Moss should be held out of due to the knee.
Sleepers
Potential and situation for a huge 2006 to showcase their skills and move up draft boards.
*Lynell Hamilton, San Diego State – as a true freshman in 2003, he showed potential as an Aztec runner not scene since Marshall Faulk was on campus. However, a severe leg injury cost him 2004 and didn’t look the same in 2005. A return to form in 2006 will have scouts jumping quickly back on his bandwagon.
Alley Broussard, LSU – a torn ACL ruined what should have been a big season paving the way for him to play on Sundays. Instead, his back-up Joseph Addai stepped up and is now looked at as a possible Day One pick. If the knee is healthy, he should quickly get back on the radar as a bruising power runner in a marquee program.
Thomas Clayton, Kansas State – the former FSU recruit overcame a torn ACL and being stuck behind Darren Sproles to start 2005 as one of the top rushers in the country. However, a minor legal issue derailed him and then the running game fell apart. If he can get off to a good start with HC Ron Prince and get another chance to be the featured runner, with his outstanding speed, his draft stock could quickly climb again.
*Mike Hart, Michigan – after a breakout true freshman year in 2005, he had a disappointing encore this past season due to injuries. Already smaller than ideal for the next level, he needs to prove durability isn’t a problem with a return to health and elite production. If he does, he could be an early entrant, but I think his measurables leave a bit to be desired and he would be best served by staying four years.
Garrett Wolfe, Northern Illinois – followed in the footsteps of Michael Turner as one the most productive, and most overlooked, runners in the nation. Unlike Turner, he does not have ideal size. He is tiny by NFL standards, but has elite speed. A good candidate to lead the nation in rushing, he’ll get some more pub in 2006, but his size will likely prevent him from being an early pick.
*Darius Walker, Notre Dame – emerged as a true freshman and further built on that success in 2005. With the ND hype-machine back in full force, coverage and pub will not be a problem in helping his draft stock, he just needs to continue bringing the production.
Deep Sleepers
Under the radar, some who could sneak their way up with a big 2006 performance.
Courtney Lewis, Texas A&M – career has been going in reverse since being a redshirt Freshman All-American in 2003. Consistency and durability a problem, but talent is there.
Ronnie McGill, North Carolina – a torn chest muscle working out prior to the 2005 season prevented a breakout year, but he returned and finished as the team’s leading rusher. Another guy for which durability a problem, but he has good measurables and has shown flashes.
Brian Leonard, Rutgers – FB tweener is a good runner and led the team in receiving in 05. Reportedly give a mid-round ranking by the NFL Advisory Board if he declared early for this year’s draft. Could be the next Mike Alstott.
*Albert Young, Iowa – recovered well from a torn ACL in 2004 to go over 1K rushing in 2005. With Iowa in shape to again be a BCS contender, he should get plenty of coverage and a lot more recognition in 2006.
*Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State – broke out in 2005, now needs some pub, in addition to continued production, to work his way up draft boards.
REM Sleepers
Talented underclassmen who are a long shot to declare early and a some forgotten seniors who could surprise.
*Thomas Brown and *Danny Ware, Georgia – this tandem took off as true freshmen in 2004 and repeated their success in 2005. While not Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown, the Bulldog duo are finding the early success in the tough SEC that makes them high-profile underclassmen. However, the return of Kregg Lumpkim further limited touches and none had truly impressive numbers last year. Still, one or both are legitimate breakout candidates for 2006, which would make early entry appealing to avoid another year of cannibalizing each others numbers.
*Tony Pittman, Ohio State – one man’s loss (Maurice Clarrett) is another man’s gain. Pittman took advantage of his opportunity in 2004, followed it up with a nice 2005, and it’s not unrealistic he could have an even bigger 2006. If he does, the smart move would be to jump with a talented pair of Wells’s behind him. I’m not confident he will improve on last year because I don’t think he is an elite talent, but on an explosive offense for a national champ contender, he can ride the coattails with health and hard work.
*Amir Pinnix, Minnesota – with the unfortunate turn of events in the career of Gary Russell, Pinnix jumps from the Waiting Room to a sleeper. He and Russell were expected to form the next superstar Gopher tandem this fall, now Pinnix seems to be in the driver’s seat to be the feature back. Unlike Russell, he hasn’t had much of chance to show his potential can become production, but he has a tremendous opportunity. Even if he blows up in 2006, that will just get him on the NFL radar and it’s likely he’d return for his last year of eligibility. However, the way HC Glen Mason is stacking talented recruits in the backfield, the pattern has been to bolt early while you are hot, similar to what was going on at Miami a few years ago.
*Gary Russell, Minnesota – the Gophers have become quite an RB factory, with each new model seeming to be an improvement on the impressive previous one. He brought better size and more power than his predecessors, seemingly without any less speed or skill. 2006 looked to be Russell’s turn to blow up, but his academic standing threatens his path to the NFL. I had included him as a Blue Chip when I started compiling this list last week, but he has since withdrawn from the university over academic standing. While it appears he will attempt to rectify his problems in junior college over the spring and summer to be eligible for the fall, reports are it doesn’t look promising. He’s not ready for the NFL yet, but I’d be less surprised to see opt for the supplemental draft than play for the Gophers again.
*Jamario Thomas, North Texas – led the nation in rushing in 2004, but was hampered by injury in 2005 and couldn’t find a rhythm with the return of Patrick Cobbs. Unlike Cobbs, Thomas has a nice package of measurables. Returning to prolific production could make him greedy, but he won’t get much recognition in the Sun Belt.
Pierre Thomas, Illinois – all-purpose threat led the Big Ten in total yards in 2004 on an impotent Illinois team. Unlikely to help his profile stuck in RBBC and likely to be passed by top 2005 recruit Rashard Mendenhall in 2006.
Herschel Dennis, USC – before his legal problems and blown knee, it’s easy to forget he kept a young Reggie Bush and LenDale White in supporting roles for a year. Opportunity is there if he can once again hold off talented youth.
Waiting Room
An injury to the player(s) in front of them away from an opportunity to be fast risers in 2006.
Austin Scott, PSU – in the same recruiting class as Hunt, Scott was originally viewed as the next feature back as a true freshman in 2003. Hunt quickly passed him, but Scott showed he could still be The Man when he successfully replaced an injured Hunt in the Orange Bowl.
Justin Vincent, LSU – it’s been a long time since Vincent was the leading rusher and Sugar Bowl MVP as a redshirt freshman for the national champions. His career has gone in reverse, but the status of Broussard’s knee leaves the door open for him to rebound in a big way this season.
Kolby Smith, Louisville – he could have been a feature back for a lot of other teams, but has been stuck in backfield crowded with talent.
*Ramonce Taylor, Texas – Jamaal Charles moved to the front of the line as a true freshman in 2005, but Taylor was is a key multi-purpose threat and is more of a home run threat.
Selvin Young, Texas – durability cost him the opportunity to follow Cedric Benson as the next great Longhorn runner in 2005. Now he’s been passed by youth and seeing limited touches in a deep RBBC.
*Kregg Lumpkin, Georgia – after a strong showing as a true freshman in 2003, a torn ACL prior to the 2004 season opened the door for Thomas Brown and Danny Ware and derailed Lumpkin’s career. He remained behind that dynamic duo in 2005, so it isn’t just one guy he’d have to pass. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him transfer to D-IAA.
*Justin Forsett, California – the Bear running game didn’t miss a beat when Marshawn Lynch was out.
Marcus O’Keith, California – home run hitter with good size has been stuck behind a talented string of backs his whole collegiate career. He could impress if ever given the chance.
Small School
Five players jump out at me as the best bets to be the rare sub-division I-A to have their names in the mix as draft prospects at RB.
Clifton Dawson, Harvard – likely to end his career as the most productive Ivy League RB, and possibly the most productive DI-AA, ever. Originally a Northwestern recruit, so he has good enough measurables and skills to have played at a higher level.
Germaine Race, Pittsburgh State – the DII dynamo continues to dominate. With good measurables, a final year of eye-popping numbers will keep his name in circulation.
Arkee Whitlock, Southern Illinois – this is the man who kept NYG Brandon Jacobs in a situational role when they played together in 2004. The undersized talent has held back D-IA transfers and top to recruits to continue driving the offense for one of the top D-IAA programs the last few years.
Steve Baylark, UMass – solid measurables and consistently tremendous production in DI-AA make him one of the favorites to be a token small school back on the NFL radar.
*Jamar Brittingham, Bloomsburg – former Rutgers recruit couldn’t take care of the books to showcase his skills with the big boys, but has been unstoppable in DII with over 2K and 32 TDs in 2005.
Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
From the KCFA1 back row....
Steel City
Footballguy
How about Tyler Palko, QB, Pitt?
Tenacious D
Footballguy
Whichever is left to me - Reggie Bush or the RB Indy drafts.who are you picking in front of me at #2?
Last edited by a moderator:
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
I expect Calvin Johnson, to be one of the top 2 wr's off the board. He will go no later than 15, and likely top 10.
Edit to add in reply to EBF: I think that he is significantly more athletic than Key. He has no QB is is double covered almost every play.
Edit to add in reply to EBF: I think that he is significantly more athletic than Key. He has no QB is is double covered almost every play.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
Johnson is definitely a beast. The only reason I compared him to Key is because they're similar in terms of size, speed, and hands. I agree that Johnson is more athletic, but I don't think he's as fast as Jarrett (but he probably has more consistent hands).Anyhow, look for both of these guys to go very high in the NFL draft if they declare. I could easily see both going top 5.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
I have come a long way around on the value of great hands. After many years of thinking to the contrary, I now think it is easier to improve football quickness and speed (by setting up defenders, proper footwork, and refined running form) than it is to improve hands. I just don't see enough guys improve their hands. Jarrett is also fantastic (as is Samardzija), but Johnson floored me with his ability to fight two defenders and consistent come down with a poorly thrown ball. I was in Georgia a good bit after Katrina and saw a lot of both Georgia and Tech games, and no one impressed me more than Johnson. Playing with Reggie Ball does little to showcase his talents.
Benchwarmers
Footballguy
Tyler Palko, QB, Pitt was really hyped out of high school. I dont think unless he has a great year will he make the NFL.
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