2007 NFL Starting QB Landscape (1 Viewer)

[Bob_Magaw]

To all the guys hyping Anderson in Cleveland from a Browns fan....

No No No. He had something like 8 turnovers in his last two games before getting injured, there couldn't have been a closer clone to Kelly Holcomb if they tried. I see the Browns making a play for Schaub, a RFA and Leftwich if he is available. I don't think they should or will go after Carr. Cleveland is bringing in almost an entire new offensive staff, so if they go WCO style, look for them to go after Schaub or hell even resign Garcia, that would be hilarious, but in a WCO he can get the job done. I wouldn't be upset if they got Russell in the draft but most Browns fans are on the Troy Smith wagon and we would be in for another long year if that were the case.

I couldn't agree more on Anderson. He may have shown enough to be a good back-up going forward, but how low are your expectations if you were really impressed by Derek Anderson's play in the games he started? Or did you miss the last two games he started?No way the Browns go into next season with Derek Anderson having a chance to start. I actually agree that this is the most likely destination for Byron Leftwich.

The other situation I disagree with the majority take: no way is Simms 80% chance to start in TB. As has been pointed, Gruden has gone on and on about bringing in a veteran in addition to Simms. Once that veteran (Garcia, Plummer, Huard, David Carr, Bledsoe, Seneca Wallace, Aaron Brooks) gets into camp, it won't take long for everyone to realize that whoever he is, he is a much better bet to put points on the board than Chris Simms. I say 40-50% chance to start.

NFL football games are precious to each franchise. You can't keep entering NFL seasons without giving your team a chance to compete. Tampa Bay did that in '06 when they couldn't get points on the board and sabotaged their whole season by running Chris Simms out there to start the season. Would they really do that to their franchise again in '07? Historically, if you lose your first three games (and look awful doing it), your whole season is shot and the franchise is set back another year. Just as importantly, this isn't a franchise that can get by solely on its defense anymore. Their defense is below average now and not looking to get much better anytime soon. They need a QB who can put points on the board, not just a project QB whom Gruden can try to groom to manage a game and minimize mistakes.

Finally, I agree that Carolina will enter '07 with Delhomme as the starter and will look to bring in a promising young QB via the draft.

a lot of great responses in this thread... i'll try to get back to some of them individually later...i was just about to post that i could see CLE as destination for leftwich... GM savage (assuming he retains his job) was in BAL when ozzie newsome attempted to engineer a trade with MIN to secure leftwich... when trade couldn't be consumated in time, JAX ended up with him, & BAL got suggs & traded a following year first to get boller...

CLE has the nucleus in place for a potentially formidable pssing attack, with winslow & edwards... although he recently played in a warm weather climate in florida, i think he is from DC & used to the cold... plus he is a big passer that throws a nice spiral, which should help cutting through the elements on cold weather days...

by this same rationale, possibly BAL could be added to list of possible destinations (GM newsome already tried to land him)... this might depend on how much longer mcnair intends to play... if another few years, not so good... if just one more season, not sure if cap situation would permit their spending money on an expensive succession plan (& i agree boller looked better in limited action & could be the guy, but since they liked leftwich better before, i think they still do)... BAL used to be run heavy attack, but with mcnair, light went on for billick to open offense up more... some nice WR weapons in heap, mark clayton & mason (though he had down year)...

* just think if CLE were able to add lefty via FA, & a big league talent like peterson or calvin johnson in draft... they could be in a completely different place to begin the 07 season!

 

[Bri]

I don't think the Lions draft a QB

they have http://www.detroitlions.com/bio.cfm?bio_id=368&season=8

and

http://www.detroitlions.com/bio.cfm?bio_id=276&season=8

Those two guys threw a combined total of ZERO passes this season. On a team that was out of the playoff race before Thanksgiving, you'd think the QB of the future would at least get a little garbage action.Of course, that may say more about their commitment to Kitna than it does about the backups. I get the impression that even with his age, the Lions see Kitna as the starter for another 2-3 seasons.

They've shown something in McCown. They got him as a FA and some even thought he might be the starter last spring/early summer. Seems they played him at WR sparingly to keep him involved, much like Hostetler with the Giants years ago. Kitna throwing every pass is an accomplishment the way QBs get hurt so often. Orlovsky...eh alot of teams have a young inexperienced 3rd stringer.

I don't see an overwhelming need. That's all.

 

[Bri]

To all the guys hyping Anderson in Cleveland from a Browns fan....

No No No. He had something like 8 turnovers in his last two games before getting injured, there couldn't have been a closer clone to Kelly Holcomb if they tried. I see the Browns making a play for Schaub, a RFA and Leftwich if he is available. I don't think they should or will go after Carr. Cleveland is bringing in almost an entire new offensive staff, so if they go WCO style, look for them to go after Schaub or hell even resign Garcia, that would be hilarious, but in a WCO he can get the job done. I wouldn't be upset if they got Russell in the draft but most Browns fans are on the Troy Smith wagon and we would be in for another long year if that were the case.

I couldn't agree more on Anderson. He may have shown enough to be a good back-up going forward, but how low are your expectations if you were really impressed by Derek Anderson's play in the games he started? Or did you miss the last two games he started?No way the Browns go into next season with Derek Anderson having a chance to start. I actually agree that this is the most likely destination for Byron Leftwich.

The other situation I disagree with the majority take: no way is Simms 80% chance to start in TB. As has been pointed, Gruden has gone on and on about bringing in a veteran in addition to Simms. Once that veteran (Garcia, Plummer, Huard, David Carr, Bledsoe, Seneca Wallace, Aaron Brooks) gets into camp, it won't take long for everyone to realize that whoever he is, he is a much better bet to put points on the board than Chris Simms. I say 40-50% chance to start.

NFL football games are precious to each franchise. You can't keep entering NFL seasons without giving your team a chance to compete. Tampa Bay did that in '06 when they couldn't get points on the board and sabotaged their whole season by running Chris Simms out there to start the season. Would they really do that to their franchise again in '07? Historically, if you lose your first three games (and look awful doing it), your whole season is shot and the franchise is set back another year. Just as importantly, this isn't a franchise that can get by solely on its defense anymore. Their defense is below average now and not looking to get much better anytime soon. They need a QB who can put points on the board, not just a project QB whom Gruden can try to groom to manage a game and minimize mistakes.

Finally, I agree that Carolina will enter '07 with Delhomme as the starter and will look to bring in a promising young QB via the draft.

a lot of great responses in this thread... i'll try to get back to some of them individually later...i was just about to post that i could see CLE as destination for leftwich... GM savage (assuming he retains his job) was in BAL when ozzie newsome attempted to engineer a trade with MIN to secure leftwich... when trade couldn't be consumated in time, JAX ended up with him, & BAL got suggs & traded a following year first to get boller...

CLE has the nucleus in place for a potentially formidable pssing attack, with winslow & edwards... although he recently played in a warm weather climate in florida, i think he is from DC & used to the cold... plus he is a big passer that throws a nice spiral, which should help cutting through the elements on cold weather days...

by this same rationale, possibly BAL could be added to list of possible destinations (GM newsome already tried to land him)... this might depend on how much longer mcnair intends to play... if another few years, not so good... if just one more season, not sure if cap situation would permit their spending money on an expensive succession plan (& i agree boller looked better in limited action & could be the guy, but since they liked leftwich better before, i think they still do)... BAL used to be run heavy attack, but with mcnair, light went on for billick to open offense up more... some nice WR weapons in heap, mark clayton & mason (though he had down year)...

* just think if CLE were able to add lefty via FA, & a big league talent like peterson or calvin johnson in draft... they could be in a completely different place to begin the 07 season!

I agree with your thinking but they'd need to add some to that O-line IMO.

 

[Phlash]

Pretty good list. But just a note on Losman and the Bills. That's a 100% lock there. The only way that JP isn't the starter in '07 for the Bills is if he gets hurt. He did pretty much everything that was asked of him this season and finished 11th in the league in passer rating. If he can cut down the turnovers by a few more (especially the fumbles) the Bills will be in pretty decent shape.

i agree... i would have been more accurate to say 80-90%...i would reserve 99-100% for guys like brady, manning, palmer, etc... surely losman's status isn't THAT secure...

Maybe Losman isn't as GOOD as Manning, Brady, or Palmer, but his job is just about as secure as theirs (aka 100% unless he gets injured).**** Jauron realizes that he has put no offensive line around Losman with only minimal talent at the skill positions. If they can pick up a few stud offensive lineman/receivers in the draft/free agency then Losman could go off next season.

 

[Bri]

If they can pick up a few stud offensive lineman/receivers in the draft/free agency then Losman could go off next season.

I'd like to see how a talented TE does in Buffalo, a top talent. I think one could make a dramatic difference there.

 

[Jason Wood]

Garcia is going to Min or TB, IMO. I think Jax is making a huge mistake if they get rid of Leftwich. I know he gets banged up, but they haven't been real serious injuries. He's extremely talented, tough, a winner, and most importantly he is a great leader.

Jeff Garcia seems to be a hot commodity right now with suitors like TB, OAK, MIN - he'd better not chose OAK - that line will get him killed - maybe he learned his lesson in CLE and DET.With Jason Wood questioning McNabbs availability you have to throw PHI into the mix. I doubt the Philly FO will spend starter money on Garcia to play half the season an then sit so it would seem that he could easily fly the coop.Who then does Philly bring in?Plummer is clarly not a long term answer, would he be willing to take a back seat to McNabb at the end of the yera or 2008?Could Carr be rescued? Is that the kind of challenge that would turn Andy Reid on? Leftwich does not seem like a fit hereIn respect of Vick, Blank paid him a roster bonus of more than 20M in 2005, not a signing bonus so there is no bonus ramification of gettign rid of him (not that they will) - his salary for 2007 is a palatable 6M with a slight rise to 7.5M 2008 and 9M in 2009. He is signed through 2013 but can be traded or cut without significan cap raminfications (other than huge savings).Still I am not sure I buy Schaub competing here. There will be a new coach who does not know Schaub and I'd not be surprised to see Schaub get a top tender and then be traded before the draft with the Falcons picking up a rookie in the draft and maybe a vet of higher caliber in FA if there is to be a competition or just as injury insurance.Huard might have earned himself a shot. might he go to WAS and be reunited with Saunders, competing with Campbell, if Brunell is ditched (at 5.2M he's probably too expensive to keep around as back up - and 37 years old). At 34 Huard is not exactly a spring chicken. Green will be 37 next year. Will he be back?Rattay is an interesting UFA. I always thought he got the shaft in SF. Decent numbers in TB this year, 60% completion, 7.4 ypa, 4 TD, 2 INT, 8 passes 20+ yards in 4 games, 3 of 40+, 2 fumbles, 1 lost. 30 years old when the season starts, 7 years experience. I could see Gruden bring him back to compete with Simms, I could see him as decent in MIN or even PHI on a short contract.

There are rumblings in Philly that Garcia is the top priority of the offseason. Given the Eagles cap situation, money won't be a factor in re-signing him. I would think a 3-year, $20mm deal will be offered with $8-$10mm guaranteed and he'll be hard pressed to find a better deal elsewhere; even if he's looked upon as the full time starter. Combine the financial flexibility of Philly with the other factors at play and I think he'll be hard to pry away......He struggled mightily in Detroit and Cleveland; where he wasn't running the classic WCO he mastered in San Francisco; in Philly he has a chance to run that offense...He's already played well in this system and with the personnel, 100% of which are coming back next year under contract...The Eagles offensive line is the league's largest, is playing very well, and has depth (Andrews, Herremen, Justice, Jackson all signed to long term deals)...On paper, the Eagles are as good, if not better positioned to compete for a title than the other logical suitors (Minnesota, Tampa Bay)

 

[msommer]

There are rumblings in Philly that Garcia is the top priority of the offseason. Given the Eagles cap situation, money won't be a factor in re-signing him. I would think a 3-year, $20mm deal will be offered with $8-$10mm guaranteed and he'll be hard pressed to find a better deal elsewhere; even if he's looked upon as the full time starter.

I think he'd be a fool to turn down that kind of money. He's not particularly young (turns 37 in Feb) so 3 years might be longer than PHI is prepared to offer. They would have a much better grip at what kind of shape he's in and what kind of physical decline is likely. No matter what this will be his last contract.

 

[Jason Wood]

There are rumblings in Philly that Garcia is the top priority of the offseason. Given the Eagles cap situation, money won't be a factor in re-signing him. I would think a 3-year, $20mm deal will be offered with $8-$10mm guaranteed and he'll be hard pressed to find a better deal elsewhere; even if he's looked upon as the full time starter.

I think he'd be a fool to turn down that kind of money. He's not particularly young (turns 37 in Feb) so 3 years might be longer than PHI is prepared to offer. They would have a much better grip at what kind of shape he's in and what kind of physical decline is likely. No matter what this will be his last contract.

Hey msommer,I think both sides would fully understand that it's effectively a one-year deal at guaranteed starter's money with the rest very much up for renegotiation in 2008.

 

[PahtyTom]

Bledsoe is gone in Dallas. I wonder who the backup QB will be? There isn't another on the roster, but Parcells toyed with the idea of trying out Maddox in the season.

I can see it now. Bledsoe to Oakland. He would destroy the single season sack record. LOL

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

There is at least some chance Tim Rattay will be a starter somewhere next year. He's done very well considering how bad the teams he's played for have been.

Jax is nuts if they let Leftwich go. He's a lot better than Garrard and will be an average(ish) NFL starter for years.

Garcia will be 37 next year and is perfectly suited to his role behind McNabb. Would be surprised to see anyone offer him starter money.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

Pretty good list. But just a note on Losman and the Bills. That's a 100% lock there. The only way that JP isn't the starter in '07 for the Bills is if he gets hurt. He did pretty much everything that was asked of him this season and finished 11th in the league in passer rating. If he can cut down the turnovers by a few more (especially the fumbles) the Bills will be in pretty decent shape.

i agree... i would have been more accurate to say 80-90%...i would reserve 99-100% for guys like brady, manning, palmer, etc... surely losman's status isn't THAT secure...

Maybe Losman isn't as GOOD as Manning, Brady, or Palmer, but his job is just about as secure as theirs (aka 100% unless he gets injured).**** Jauron realizes that he has put no offensive line around Losman with only minimal talent at the skill positions. If they can pick up a few stud offensive lineman/receivers in the draft/free agency then Losman could go off next season.

not to put too fine a point on it...because i agree losman is highly likely to be starter...but another way to look at this, since i wasn't clear on front end... is not just what QB is likely to start game one... but to remain starter through the season...if brady, manning & palmer lose first four games 50-0... any chance they get replaced?could we say the same about losman... is he REALLY as bullet proof... i don't think so...

 

[Obie Wan]

Pretty good list. But just a note on Losman and the Bills. That's a 100% lock there. The only way that JP isn't the starter in '07 for the Bills is if he gets hurt. He did pretty much everything that was asked of him this season and finished 11th in the league in passer rating. If he can cut down the turnovers by a few more (especially the fumbles) the Bills will be in pretty decent shape.

i agree... i would have been more accurate to say 80-90%...i would reserve 99-100% for guys like brady, manning, palmer, etc... surely losman's status isn't THAT secure...

Maybe Losman isn't as GOOD as Manning, Brady, or Palmer, but his job is just about as secure as theirs (aka 100% unless he gets injured).**** Jauron realizes that he has put no offensive line around Losman with only minimal talent at the skill positions. If they can pick up a few stud offensive lineman/receivers in the draft/free agency then Losman could go off next season.

not to put too fine a point on it...because i agree losman is highly likely to be starter...but another way to look at this, since i wasn't clear on front end... is not just what QB is likely to start game one... but to remain starter through the season...if brady, manning & palmer lose first four games 50-0... any chance they get replaced?could we say the same about losman... is he REALLY as bullet proof... i don't think so...

YES -He isHe will sit only if he is hurt -

 

[Bob_Magaw]

sorry, but we'll have to disagree on that...

if they get off to a horrific start, & losman looks like he has something to do with that, imo he does not have indentical job security to likes of brady, manning & palmer...