Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
One of the many things I like to do when analyzing the make up of my team is to go further than just the player themselves. I think it is extremely important to look at the entire team as no matter how talented a player is they can only perform up to a certain level with and without the talent around them. Let’s look at the teams and break them down by the positions themselves more so than just the individuals.
AFC East
New England Patriots : No doubt the main cog in the wheel for this offense is Tom Brady. He is the spark that drives everything else around him. David Givens and Deion Branch were viable starters in this offense on a weekly basis but they moved on to other teams and seemed to struggle. Reche Caldwell is a very mediocre WR as was Doug Gabriel but both of them had their weeks in this offense. Gabriel even was cut during the season but produced WR2/3 numbers for several weeks in the middle of the year. Chad Jackson even as a rookie as well as when Branch was a rookie both showed flashes. I attribute most of it to Tom Brady. Is Brady a topflight FF QB? Not always but he is solid and usually good for 200+ yds and 1-2 TD on any given week…he doesn’t lose game typically for you.
The RB tandem of Dillon and Maroney is going to be hard to gauge this off season. While it would be easy to throw 20-30% onto Maroney’s rookie numbers, that will only push him up higher on your draft boards to where he has less value. If Dillon comes back I cannot find a reason why he would not be used in short yardage situations and also around the goal line which takes away from Brady and Maroney. Dillon should be post another 750+ yards and 10+ TD if he returns to NE. Maroney seems to have the components necessary to take over as the RB1 in this offense but he still could be 1 to perhaps 2 more seasons from getting that opportunity.
Looking back at the WR position you see in 2003 Branch/803, Givens 6TD, 2004 Givens/874, Patten/8TD, 2005 Branch/998 and 5TD, 2006 Caldwell/760 and 4TD…these are the top rec yds and TD for the WR position over the past 4 seasons. It would seem the Pats top WR ranges in the 750-1,000 yd range and about 5-7TD…not always the same WR. Certainly a WR with top notch skills could push these numbers with Tom Brady throwing him the ball…however NE does not like to build the offense around 1 player so the idea that maybe Chad Jackson is going to explode for 1,200/10TD seems like a stretch. In Dyansty I would think most NE WR would not be high on the list of players you want to build your team around…more of a role player position at best right now.
Ben Watson is their best TE but he simply does not put up numbers to move into the elite status in FF. He’s solid but not much more.
Looking ahead to the NFL draft it appears many places have the Pats looking defense. They did give up a lot of points in the playoffs and Michael Griffin, a Safety from Texas appears to be a possible long term solution to replace Rodney Harrison. I would like to see the Pats draft more weapons on offense, but that is the FF owner in me. They have a system, it has brought 3 Lombardi Trophies in the past 6 seasons so you can’t argue with the formula. It did appear they needed better weapons at WR but they managed 34 points in the AFC Championship game so perhaps an upgrade in the secondary and OLB is just what they need.
Overall the best players to grab on this team are obviously Tom Brady, Corey Dillon, and Laurence Maroney. Dillon is never going to be 100 yard weekly producer again but he will vulture a good portion of the TD and depending on your league scoring he will be more valuable at time than Maroney.
New York Jets : The Jets are a team that are not as easy to read as the Patriots. There has been a lot of unsettled play at QB over the past3-5 seasons mostly due to injuries by Chad Pennington. Penny did complete 64.5% of his passes last season which would rank him high in the NFL for completions. He had 17 TD and 16 Int however and that is not a great ratio for an elite caliber QB which Penny is certainly not. Penny does have a 65% completion percentage over his career. 72 TD to 46 Int is not terrible but he bends that curve with his ’02 22/6, and ’04 16/9 TD/Int ratios…30/28 on his other 2 seasons under center. The Jets have talked about there being competition at the QB position but I don’t really see there being a major change there for ’07. Mangini was able to milk 10 wins for them and a QB change unless it was for a top10 type would be a step in the wrong direction.
The Jets backfield may be what is truly the missing link for them right now. There is talent at WR which we will get to but the RB position seems cloudy right now. The Jets had 3 RB with over 100+ carries last season…Barlow, Washington, and Cedric Houston. Barlow was a decent short yardage and goal line back early in the season but his role diminished once Washington and especially Houston were worked into the rotation more and more. Washington had 650 yds and 4 TD, also contributed 25 rec out of the backfield. He would appear to have the most upside but I personally feel that the future NY Jets RB is not on the roster at the moment. You really cannot count on any of them presently. Washington will have to make great strides in the off season. While many mock drafts would have Greg Olsen going to the NY Jets at 1.25, I think they may look RB and either snatch Bush from Louisville to stop him from being taken by the Ravens a few picks later…or they will address it in the 2nd/3rd round of the draft. That kind of pick will further cloud the situation vs if they come out in the 1st round with someone like Bush.
At WR there are 2 decent choices from this team. You need to be aware though that as the running game gets better the receptions for both of these WR will slide somewhat. Coles had 91 Rec but only 1,098 yds and 6 TD…Cotchery posted 82 rec for 960 yds and 6 TD. The combination of a so so arm in Pennington and not a lot of breakaway speed by either WR results in decent but not great numbers. Coles is an OK #2WR but really is a #3. In most leagues you find owners that are basically starting 2 different WR1 in their line up and you are going to lose ground with a Jets WR. In Dynasty leagues you may not get more value for Coles than right now. Coles is entering his 8th season and has posted 4 80+ rec seasons…not a lot of WR can boast that. 2 separate 1,200+ yd seasons, but averages about 5-6 TD a season…so he rarely is a guy that single handedly wins games for you. Cotchery is entering his 4th season. I understand there are people very high on him but I actually see his stats taking a slide this season as the running game gets better. The Jets invested a lot into the OL last year and they will continue to improve the OL play. I feel one helps the other.
The TE position for the Jets is not very strong at the moment. Look to see who they bring into camp but it is average to below average at best right now. I do think Mangini will look to improve the production out of that position.
Overall, there are not a lot of NY Jets players that I would be jumping to obtain right now. The RB slot is of most interest to me but that position is not clearly defined right now. I expect it to take shape on Draft Day and obviously as the summer unfolds. Mangini is proving that he is a quality young NFL HC and I expect the 10-6 season they just posted to be the tip of the iceberg. There is a strong possibility they may not hit 10 wins this season but they will get stronger as a unit and 10-12 wins with a deep run into the playoffs could be in their future if they can get stronger on defense and define their running game more.
Buffalo Bills : For better or worse it would seem J.P.Losman will be the QB for the foreseeable future of the Bills. In reality he did complete 62.5% of his passes last season and toss 19 TD to 14 Int…that ain’t that bad. If he can progress this coming season as much as he did last season then it is possible some very special things could be on the horizon for the Buffalo pass attack. The problem is reall the OL and their inability to block whether it is against the pass or the run. Theya re slightly better at pass protection but the running game has hit a wall and is impeding the flow of the pass game at this point. Losman is not an elite QB by any stretch and probably at best could be a bye week filler but there is some optimism that he and the Bills can come around as a fairly high powered offense.
McGahee is sending out the message that he wants out of Buffalo. Who can blame him really? He went to the “U” and ends up in one of the absolute worst NFL cities he could be in, sorry Buffalo. If McGahee is forced to stay in Buffalo it could be an implosion with the offense. I have a lot of respect for Marv Levy and think he might be able to deal McGahee come draft day with the intent of taking a RB. Don’t assume MarShawn Lynch is a lock for GB just because 10 websites say it is. Yes the Bills need OL help but you can’t have a cancer in the locker room. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in McGahee for the right price. Maybe Buffalo can acquire some additional draft picks to help the overall team. McGahee is entering the 5th year of his contract so it may be time to send him on his way.
Lee Evans is the driving force in the WR stable for the Bills. I think Evans has the skills to be an elite WR in this league whether it is Buffalo or almost anywhere. He elevated Losman to a decent play last season. Evans reminds me a lot of Marvin Harrison…24 TD in 3 seasons…Harrison had 21 TD and didn’t hit 1,000 yds in his 1st 3 seasons…Evans has already passed that. I am not shy about my admiration for Evans and he is close to the top of my list for topWR under 3-5 seasons in the NFL for dynasty leagues. Evans has the talent to post 1,500 and 10-12 TD, all he needs is the opportunity and some decent play around him. The WR2 slot for the Bills is pretty mediocre right now and not worth burning a lot of time on. Parrish, Price, and Reed all have games where they post either 75-100 yds or grab a TD…they combined for 7 last season…wouldn’t Evans’ owners like to slide a few of those over to Evans.
TE is almost nonexistent for this team right now.
Lee Evans is the guy to have for Buffalo. McGahee could implode if he is stuck in Buffalo but also could be quite valuable if a team like Baltimore or the like traded for him. There is always a chance McGahee is bolstering his position for more money but he should really just shut up and play ball rather than talk about the Toronto Bills.
Miami Dolphins: Miami is a team with influx right now as Cam Cameron is now in charge of the team. I look for them to have a much better ground game one way or the other. The Phins need much better play from the QB position but Culpepper will have another year removed from his devastating knee injury and I expect him to respond under CC’s tutelage. It’s a leap of faith by CPepp owners but unless Miami brings in someone on draft day…a move I don’t think they will make, look for them to go with what they have and get more from it.
Can Ronnie Brown ever be a 2,000 yd and 20 TD RB? I don’t believe so but whatever his peak will be, it should show with Cameron running the show. Do not expect LT type numbers from Ronnie Brown…but 1,200-1,500 yds rushing with a good OL built in front of him and maybe 10-12+TD is not unreasonable. I am not going to go on and on about Brown, but he did show some extra gears towards the end of the season before he hurt his wrist. If you could get a good deal to unload him in dynasty leagues I would entertain them. He has not produced super numbers as of yet and he has a 2nd wave of hype with Cam Cameron the HC for Miami now…that hype will grow as the summer wears on.
3 WR had 600-750 yds and combined for 11 TD for the season. I expect Chambers to bounce back this season and get back to where he was before 2006. He has shown a lot of flashes of greatness. I expect him to be a pretty good bargain in redraft leagues and also should be at a low for dynasty leagues right now. He will be a great #2/3 WR with potential to return to a #1 at some point. CC did not blow anyone up at WR in San Diego however I can’t see where anyone had the talent and speed of a Chambers. The WR2 and WR3 spots on Miami always have some value because the whether is still great late into the season and wind/snow is never a big deal come Sunday Mornings. Welker and Booker are solid but not overly talented. I expect Miami to look to upgrade their WR in the off season.
Randy McMichael has averaged close to 600 yards and 4 TD for his 1st 5 seasons in the NFL. He has had a lot of off field problems however a no name TE that goes by Antonio Gates flourished under CC. I’m not saying McMichael can achieve the same level but I am excited and expect that he will surpass his career highs in the coming seasons. He has never had more than 5 TD so I look for improvements in that area. You probably would not have to pay an arm and a leg to get this guy right now so see what it will take and measure the risk/reward.
Miami is a team in transition on offense. But you have to be excited to see what happens with Cameron taking over. Don’t look for world beater numbers from anyone just yet but expect to see strides and marked improvement for this team and specifically the offense.
AFC East
New England Patriots : No doubt the main cog in the wheel for this offense is Tom Brady. He is the spark that drives everything else around him. David Givens and Deion Branch were viable starters in this offense on a weekly basis but they moved on to other teams and seemed to struggle. Reche Caldwell is a very mediocre WR as was Doug Gabriel but both of them had their weeks in this offense. Gabriel even was cut during the season but produced WR2/3 numbers for several weeks in the middle of the year. Chad Jackson even as a rookie as well as when Branch was a rookie both showed flashes. I attribute most of it to Tom Brady. Is Brady a topflight FF QB? Not always but he is solid and usually good for 200+ yds and 1-2 TD on any given week…he doesn’t lose game typically for you.
The RB tandem of Dillon and Maroney is going to be hard to gauge this off season. While it would be easy to throw 20-30% onto Maroney’s rookie numbers, that will only push him up higher on your draft boards to where he has less value. If Dillon comes back I cannot find a reason why he would not be used in short yardage situations and also around the goal line which takes away from Brady and Maroney. Dillon should be post another 750+ yards and 10+ TD if he returns to NE. Maroney seems to have the components necessary to take over as the RB1 in this offense but he still could be 1 to perhaps 2 more seasons from getting that opportunity.
Looking back at the WR position you see in 2003 Branch/803, Givens 6TD, 2004 Givens/874, Patten/8TD, 2005 Branch/998 and 5TD, 2006 Caldwell/760 and 4TD…these are the top rec yds and TD for the WR position over the past 4 seasons. It would seem the Pats top WR ranges in the 750-1,000 yd range and about 5-7TD…not always the same WR. Certainly a WR with top notch skills could push these numbers with Tom Brady throwing him the ball…however NE does not like to build the offense around 1 player so the idea that maybe Chad Jackson is going to explode for 1,200/10TD seems like a stretch. In Dyansty I would think most NE WR would not be high on the list of players you want to build your team around…more of a role player position at best right now.
Ben Watson is their best TE but he simply does not put up numbers to move into the elite status in FF. He’s solid but not much more.
Looking ahead to the NFL draft it appears many places have the Pats looking defense. They did give up a lot of points in the playoffs and Michael Griffin, a Safety from Texas appears to be a possible long term solution to replace Rodney Harrison. I would like to see the Pats draft more weapons on offense, but that is the FF owner in me. They have a system, it has brought 3 Lombardi Trophies in the past 6 seasons so you can’t argue with the formula. It did appear they needed better weapons at WR but they managed 34 points in the AFC Championship game so perhaps an upgrade in the secondary and OLB is just what they need.
Overall the best players to grab on this team are obviously Tom Brady, Corey Dillon, and Laurence Maroney. Dillon is never going to be 100 yard weekly producer again but he will vulture a good portion of the TD and depending on your league scoring he will be more valuable at time than Maroney.
New York Jets : The Jets are a team that are not as easy to read as the Patriots. There has been a lot of unsettled play at QB over the past3-5 seasons mostly due to injuries by Chad Pennington. Penny did complete 64.5% of his passes last season which would rank him high in the NFL for completions. He had 17 TD and 16 Int however and that is not a great ratio for an elite caliber QB which Penny is certainly not. Penny does have a 65% completion percentage over his career. 72 TD to 46 Int is not terrible but he bends that curve with his ’02 22/6, and ’04 16/9 TD/Int ratios…30/28 on his other 2 seasons under center. The Jets have talked about there being competition at the QB position but I don’t really see there being a major change there for ’07. Mangini was able to milk 10 wins for them and a QB change unless it was for a top10 type would be a step in the wrong direction.
The Jets backfield may be what is truly the missing link for them right now. There is talent at WR which we will get to but the RB position seems cloudy right now. The Jets had 3 RB with over 100+ carries last season…Barlow, Washington, and Cedric Houston. Barlow was a decent short yardage and goal line back early in the season but his role diminished once Washington and especially Houston were worked into the rotation more and more. Washington had 650 yds and 4 TD, also contributed 25 rec out of the backfield. He would appear to have the most upside but I personally feel that the future NY Jets RB is not on the roster at the moment. You really cannot count on any of them presently. Washington will have to make great strides in the off season. While many mock drafts would have Greg Olsen going to the NY Jets at 1.25, I think they may look RB and either snatch Bush from Louisville to stop him from being taken by the Ravens a few picks later…or they will address it in the 2nd/3rd round of the draft. That kind of pick will further cloud the situation vs if they come out in the 1st round with someone like Bush.
At WR there are 2 decent choices from this team. You need to be aware though that as the running game gets better the receptions for both of these WR will slide somewhat. Coles had 91 Rec but only 1,098 yds and 6 TD…Cotchery posted 82 rec for 960 yds and 6 TD. The combination of a so so arm in Pennington and not a lot of breakaway speed by either WR results in decent but not great numbers. Coles is an OK #2WR but really is a #3. In most leagues you find owners that are basically starting 2 different WR1 in their line up and you are going to lose ground with a Jets WR. In Dynasty leagues you may not get more value for Coles than right now. Coles is entering his 8th season and has posted 4 80+ rec seasons…not a lot of WR can boast that. 2 separate 1,200+ yd seasons, but averages about 5-6 TD a season…so he rarely is a guy that single handedly wins games for you. Cotchery is entering his 4th season. I understand there are people very high on him but I actually see his stats taking a slide this season as the running game gets better. The Jets invested a lot into the OL last year and they will continue to improve the OL play. I feel one helps the other.
The TE position for the Jets is not very strong at the moment. Look to see who they bring into camp but it is average to below average at best right now. I do think Mangini will look to improve the production out of that position.
Overall, there are not a lot of NY Jets players that I would be jumping to obtain right now. The RB slot is of most interest to me but that position is not clearly defined right now. I expect it to take shape on Draft Day and obviously as the summer unfolds. Mangini is proving that he is a quality young NFL HC and I expect the 10-6 season they just posted to be the tip of the iceberg. There is a strong possibility they may not hit 10 wins this season but they will get stronger as a unit and 10-12 wins with a deep run into the playoffs could be in their future if they can get stronger on defense and define their running game more.
Buffalo Bills : For better or worse it would seem J.P.Losman will be the QB for the foreseeable future of the Bills. In reality he did complete 62.5% of his passes last season and toss 19 TD to 14 Int…that ain’t that bad. If he can progress this coming season as much as he did last season then it is possible some very special things could be on the horizon for the Buffalo pass attack. The problem is reall the OL and their inability to block whether it is against the pass or the run. Theya re slightly better at pass protection but the running game has hit a wall and is impeding the flow of the pass game at this point. Losman is not an elite QB by any stretch and probably at best could be a bye week filler but there is some optimism that he and the Bills can come around as a fairly high powered offense.
McGahee is sending out the message that he wants out of Buffalo. Who can blame him really? He went to the “U” and ends up in one of the absolute worst NFL cities he could be in, sorry Buffalo. If McGahee is forced to stay in Buffalo it could be an implosion with the offense. I have a lot of respect for Marv Levy and think he might be able to deal McGahee come draft day with the intent of taking a RB. Don’t assume MarShawn Lynch is a lock for GB just because 10 websites say it is. Yes the Bills need OL help but you can’t have a cancer in the locker room. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in McGahee for the right price. Maybe Buffalo can acquire some additional draft picks to help the overall team. McGahee is entering the 5th year of his contract so it may be time to send him on his way.
Lee Evans is the driving force in the WR stable for the Bills. I think Evans has the skills to be an elite WR in this league whether it is Buffalo or almost anywhere. He elevated Losman to a decent play last season. Evans reminds me a lot of Marvin Harrison…24 TD in 3 seasons…Harrison had 21 TD and didn’t hit 1,000 yds in his 1st 3 seasons…Evans has already passed that. I am not shy about my admiration for Evans and he is close to the top of my list for topWR under 3-5 seasons in the NFL for dynasty leagues. Evans has the talent to post 1,500 and 10-12 TD, all he needs is the opportunity and some decent play around him. The WR2 slot for the Bills is pretty mediocre right now and not worth burning a lot of time on. Parrish, Price, and Reed all have games where they post either 75-100 yds or grab a TD…they combined for 7 last season…wouldn’t Evans’ owners like to slide a few of those over to Evans.
TE is almost nonexistent for this team right now.
Lee Evans is the guy to have for Buffalo. McGahee could implode if he is stuck in Buffalo but also could be quite valuable if a team like Baltimore or the like traded for him. There is always a chance McGahee is bolstering his position for more money but he should really just shut up and play ball rather than talk about the Toronto Bills.
Miami Dolphins: Miami is a team with influx right now as Cam Cameron is now in charge of the team. I look for them to have a much better ground game one way or the other. The Phins need much better play from the QB position but Culpepper will have another year removed from his devastating knee injury and I expect him to respond under CC’s tutelage. It’s a leap of faith by CPepp owners but unless Miami brings in someone on draft day…a move I don’t think they will make, look for them to go with what they have and get more from it.
Can Ronnie Brown ever be a 2,000 yd and 20 TD RB? I don’t believe so but whatever his peak will be, it should show with Cameron running the show. Do not expect LT type numbers from Ronnie Brown…but 1,200-1,500 yds rushing with a good OL built in front of him and maybe 10-12+TD is not unreasonable. I am not going to go on and on about Brown, but he did show some extra gears towards the end of the season before he hurt his wrist. If you could get a good deal to unload him in dynasty leagues I would entertain them. He has not produced super numbers as of yet and he has a 2nd wave of hype with Cam Cameron the HC for Miami now…that hype will grow as the summer wears on.
3 WR had 600-750 yds and combined for 11 TD for the season. I expect Chambers to bounce back this season and get back to where he was before 2006. He has shown a lot of flashes of greatness. I expect him to be a pretty good bargain in redraft leagues and also should be at a low for dynasty leagues right now. He will be a great #2/3 WR with potential to return to a #1 at some point. CC did not blow anyone up at WR in San Diego however I can’t see where anyone had the talent and speed of a Chambers. The WR2 and WR3 spots on Miami always have some value because the whether is still great late into the season and wind/snow is never a big deal come Sunday Mornings. Welker and Booker are solid but not overly talented. I expect Miami to look to upgrade their WR in the off season.
Randy McMichael has averaged close to 600 yards and 4 TD for his 1st 5 seasons in the NFL. He has had a lot of off field problems however a no name TE that goes by Antonio Gates flourished under CC. I’m not saying McMichael can achieve the same level but I am excited and expect that he will surpass his career highs in the coming seasons. He has never had more than 5 TD so I look for improvements in that area. You probably would not have to pay an arm and a leg to get this guy right now so see what it will take and measure the risk/reward.
Miami is a team in transition on offense. But you have to be excited to see what happens with Cameron taking over. Don’t look for world beater numbers from anyone just yet but expect to see strides and marked improvement for this team and specifically the offense.
