2007 PLAYS AGAINST (1 Viewer)

[Rozelle]

This is a sortable file with number of Plays Against for all 32 NFL teams, week by week , plus season totals and NFL averages, also has Sacks Allowed.

IDP_Plays.Sacks_Allowed.xls

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks Rozelle.

I’ve been trying to massage this data in different ways over the past two years and have yet to find an easy to use trend moving forward.

I’ve chosen to focus on the tackle opportunity measure because I think it removes some of the variables that time of possession and total plays against leave in play. All three numbers generate team rankings that are very close, though, and ToP and Total Plays are more easily available than the tackle opp metric which involves a quick calculation.

Still, all three stats don’t control for other critical values like the talent of the surrounding cast, scheme, etc.

For example, here are the top 15 tackling linebackers from 2007 and their team’s TackOpp rank in parentheses.

Patrick Willis (2)

Jon Beason (7)

DJ Williams (12)

Nick Barnett (28)

London Fletcher (21)

DeMeco Ryans (13)

Kirk Morrison (22)

Ernie Sims (1)

EJ Henderson (8)

David Thornton (27)

Michael Boley (3)

Brian Urlacher (4)

Will Witherspoon (19)

Morlon Greenwood (13)

David Harris (5)

Seven of the top 15 tacklers played for teams that finished outside the top third in tackle opportunity. Three of the top seven tacklers were in the bottom third. With the exception of Morlon Greenwood (who’s the 14th best tackler), all of these guys could rightly be considered above-average NFL linebackers. There’s not a poor talent/stud tackler in the bunch.

Not only is there no discernible pattern to find a stud here, as Speca1k noted in a post in Magaw’s splits thread, it’s very difficult to project how the teams will rank in the following season anyway.

However, I do think this data has usefulness in the early weeks of each NFL season in helping to define which players are likely to rebound as their opportunity increases and vice versa. I made a number of hypotheses in that vein in the Reading the Defense columns last October (some good, some not so good) and will be trying it again this year with a couple of new twists.

It may also have value in determining which “LB3 with upside” you want to target. Correctly reading the tea leaves here could net you the Michael Boley or Paris Lenon.

Anybody with a stat background want to take a stab at this data? I’ve got 4-5 years of tackle opportunity calculations and supporting raw data to play with if you’re interested.

 

[Rozelle]

I couldn't see any real trends here either, I like messin' around with numbers, however, I seldom use the data. I suppose it may show you some IDP's who are underperforming.

Like you said, there so many other variables

It comes in handy during the season when IDP's tank and you can reference their opps quickly.

 

[Ozymandias]

My guess is, there is a lot of randomness here. If other stats are any indication, we can expect the outlying teams to regress toward the mean. However, the point Jene raises is a very good one. Some LB's posted very high tackles in spite of their team not being very high on the plays against.

 

[Toads]

Great Information.

Where it helps most is in seperating Dynasty Draft candidates. If your gonna choose between Beason and David Haris, it points the way.

It will also be useful in helping to establish the upside of the Rookie LB's.

Added By Edit: I just came back here, while the gettin' is good, and downloaded that analysis to my Desk Top. That's good indicator information....another tool in the ToolBox.