2007 | Year of the Stud WR? (1 Viewer)

[tombonneau]

Apologize if this theory has already been floating in the pool ... but it would seem after two weeks of the season that stud WRs are the talk of the town and most RBs have gotten often to very frigid starts.

Obviously that will not hold and Plaxico Burress will not continue to outperform LT & Sjax, but I'd be willing to wager that guys who went RB-WR are doing a lot better than the RB-RB crowd.

I ended up going RB-WR-WR and couldn't be happier.

Depending on where you picked, it seemed like everyone in my league was reaching for RBs. Honestly, Ronnie Brown was routinely going over Steve Smith. It was crazy to me then, and even crazier now.

So what has been the experience for folks across all sorts of leagues with the start to the season?

Anyone else reaping the benefits of stud WRs? Or conversely, feeling the sting of "stud" RBs?

 

[Keys Myaths]

Did this in two leagues this year, and they happened to be FBG-heavy leagues. In leagues where RBs go like crazy, it's a valid theory. In leagues where you have people drafting all over the board (work leagues, etc.), you will be left with better choices at RB.

Basically, it comes down to value. Some people go into the draft thinking that they HAVE to go RB/RB, or WR/RB, or whatever. This is a recipe to kill your team. You take the player who's most valuable with your own concept of VBD left on the board.

VBD revolutionized fantasy football, but it's way too often misused. Some people have come to think that VBD means you have to take the best running back when you're in the 11th spot, or have to take Gates at the end of the third round, or even worse--you HAVE to do what Draft Dominator says.

Draft Dominator is wrong a lot of the time, especially in your work leagues. Why? Because it uses ADP in order to determine VBD. In work leagues, and leagues where you know there's a lot of new players, or even leagues where you know owners' tendencies, it's absolutely critical to use the "custom dropoff" feature on the best value pick. Critical.

Think about it. Let's say you're drafting at the beginning of the second round. You already have Chad Johnson at 1.11. Draft Dominator says to take Maroney, because with ADP, TEN more running backs are going to fly off the board before you draft again. If ten running backs really are going to go, and you agree with Maroney's (and other's) projections, then yes, you take Maroney.

However, if you're in a regular work league, or a "shark" league where people do have strange drafting tendencies--exploit those. If you've been with the same people for ten years, and you know that on average, only 6 RBs, but 7 WRs and 3 QBs will go before you can pick again, that's where you use custom dropoff. You'll simply be amazed at the difference--and it's extremely critical in maximizing the use of DD.

That's why I come on the boards a lot and rail against the use of terms like "Stud WR theory" and "Stud RB theory". You take the player that's going to help your team the most in that particular spot. You do that, and you're well on your way to defeating a lot of the "sharks" who just know how to click a button.

 

[delusional]

Mhmm...said this early in a post about what i learned so far.

 

[CalBear]

Draft Dominator is wrong a lot of the time, especially in your work leagues. Why? Because it uses ADP in order to determine VBD. In work leagues, and leagues where you know there's a lot of new players, or even leagues where you know owners' tendencies, it's absolutely critical to use the "custom dropoff" feature on the best value pick. Critical.

Think about it. Let's say you're drafting at the beginning of the second round. You already have Chad Johnson at 1.11. Draft Dominator says to take Maroney, because with ADP, TEN more running backs are going to fly off the board before you draft again. If ten running backs really are going to go, and you agree with Maroney's (and other's) projections, then yes, you take Maroney.

One note: The VBD number is based on points over the baseline. DVBD is based on VBD. The reason Maroney gets a high VBD number is because the default baseline is Joe's Secret Formula, which is loosely based on typical draft trends (not exactly ADP).It is valuable to set custom baselines if your league draft is not typical. It's critical to set custom baselines if your league setup creates significant value at positions other than RB.

I'm basically agreeing with Keys here, I just wanted to clarify the mechanism by which RBs get overvalued in DD (in some leagues, depending on league setup).

 

[nordstrom24]

I seem to be feeling the sting of trying for a balanced draft and trying to build depth at the RB in a very RB heavy draft with my 10 team work league. I went RB/WR/RB (SJax / Wayne / Portis) from the two spot and I am definitely feeling the sting.

In my work league, we actually had a team trade away his 1st round pick for another teams 2nd and 4th round pick. He then proceeded to draft Chad Johnson, Steve Smith and Torry Holt. He also got Bulger and Thomas Jones. I was fortunate enough to play him this week and our score right now before tonight's game (I have McNabb / Portis left while he has no one) is 194 - 61.5!!!

I think that there is definitely something to be said about following the flow of the draft and not just sticking to one theory...

 

[Keys Myaths]

Draft Dominator is wrong a lot of the time, especially in your work leagues. Why? Because it uses ADP in order to determine VBD. In work leagues, and leagues where you know there's a lot of new players, or even leagues where you know owners' tendencies, it's absolutely critical to use the "custom dropoff" feature on the best value pick. Critical.

Think about it. Let's say you're drafting at the beginning of the second round. You already have Chad Johnson at 1.11. Draft Dominator says to take Maroney, because with ADP, TEN more running backs are going to fly off the board before you draft again. If ten running backs really are going to go, and you agree with Maroney's (and other's) projections, then yes, you take Maroney.

One note: The VBD number is based on points over the baseline. DVBD is based on VBD. The reason Maroney gets a high VBD number is because the default baseline is Joe's Secret Formula, which is loosely based on typical draft trends (not exactly ADP).It is valuable to set custom baselines if your league draft is not typical. It's critical to set custom baselines if your league setup creates significant value at positions other than RB.

I'm basically agreeing with Keys here, I just wanted to clarify the mechanism by which RBs get overvalued in DD (in some leagues, depending on league setup).

This is a great addition. Thanks, GB.