2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[massraider]

Steve Slaton $ 1 56.6Ricky Williams $ 8 49.2Ray Rice $ 4 44.2

As suspected, the three most owned RBs...

I feel like I am the only guy on this board not putting Ray Rice in the Pro Bowl this year. I didn't even consider him.

That makes two of us. At least I don't feel like the Lone Ranger anymore...

It's not we think he will be pro bowl. It's value vs opportunity. McGahee wasn't even jogging a week ago. He sure won't be busting thru a weak offensive line anytime soon. Rice will score for us some weeks early I bet. And might just end up Rookie of the year based on his opportunity outlook. Anyone thinks McGahee will be effective soon is kidding themselves.

Thing is, early in the year, all the decent teams advance anyway. If Mcgahee is on the IR later in the year, it is steal of the century. If he is healthy this year, Rice has little value. JMO.

 

[Alias]

I think it comes down to who has the best performing players in the lowest % of teams...go Andre Johnson & Pennington!

My Team

> 40%

RB - Steve Slaton - 1 | 56.6%

QB - Kurt Warner - 5 | 51.4%

RB - Ricky Williams - 8 | 49.2%

RB - Ray Rice - 4 | 44.2%

20 - 25%

WR - Calvin Johnson - 25 | 22.4%

WR - Kevin Walter - 6 | 21.1 %

10 - 19.9%

PK - Matt Prater - 1 | 19.5%

WR - Santonio Holmes - 24 | 18.8%

TD - Minnesota Vikings - 8 | 16.9%

WR - Muhsin Muhammad - 5 14.8%

RB - Michael Turner - 28 | 13.1%

RB - Selvin Young - 21 | 12.7%

TE - Anthony Fasano - 3 | 11.0%

WR - Steve Breaston - 1 | 10.9%

RB - DeAngelo Williams - 15 | 10.7%

5 - 9.9%

RB - Maurice Morris - 11 | 8.3%

TD - New York Jets - 2 | 7.8%

RB - Jonathan Stewart - 21 | 7.4%

TE - Zach Miller - 15 | 7.0%

< 5%

QB - Chad Pennington - 9 | 4.8%

WR - Andre Johnson - 35 | 3.3%

PK - Matt Stover - 2 | 4.6%

 

[Bad_Mo]

I'd post my team but, quite frankly, even I could care less to read about who is on my team.

 

[The Kerminator]

I am a defending finalist. As most of you I got the big values thru out as identified above. Why I will win is because I worked in Whitten and Zach Miller as my TE'S. QB'S Cutler, Delhomme, and Warnerrbs barber,T.Jones,r.williams, rice,slaton and my key to sucess that will make a difference playoff time R.Torainwr's s.Smith, harrison,driver.mason.walter,breaston and Austinte's Whitten and Z.Millerk-kaeding and dawsond cowboys and BillsThank you in advance for the big check this year

I like this team but it could be problems week 10 (No Barber, Rice, Mason, Austin, Witten, Cowboys). How does this team compare to last years finalist?

 

[ctriopelle]

I am a defending finalist. As most of you I got the big values thru out as identified above. Why I will win is because I worked in Whitten and Zach Miller as my TE'S. QB'S Cutler, Delhomme, and Warnerrbs barber,T.Jones,r.williams, rice,slaton and my key to sucess that will make a difference playoff time R.Torainwr's s.Smith, harrison,driver.mason.walter,breaston and Austinte's Whitten and Z.Millerk-kaeding and dawsond cowboys and BillsThank you in advance for the big check this year

I like this team but it could be problems week 10 (No Barber, Rice, Mason, Austin, Witten, Cowboys). How does this team compare to last years finalist?

with 249 other finalists, that is a tough question to answer!

 

[Tau837]

I am a defending finalist. As most of you I got the big values thru out as identified above. Why I will win is because I worked in Whitten and Zach Miller as my TE'S. QB'S Cutler, Delhomme, and Warnerrbs barber,T.Jones,r.williams, rice,slaton and my key to sucess that will make a difference playoff time R.Torainwr's s.Smith, harrison,driver.mason.walter,breaston and Austinte's Whitten and Z.Millerk-kaeding and dawsond cowboys and BillsThank you in advance for the big check this year

I know projections will be far from accurate, but according to DD (factoring in FBG projections and SOS), Miller is projected to outscore Witten only two times - Witten's bye week, and week 16. And in week 16 only by 3 points. They are projected to combine for 259.7 fantasy points in the first 16 games.In retrospect, I wish I had gone a different route at TE... if Witten stays healthy, he was probably worth the price.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Two thoughts. First, has anyone determined the number of "exact duplicate teams" last year or the year before? I would expect a couple, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were no exact duplicates among the 12,000 or so different entries.

I just checked. There are no duplicates. With 22 roster slots, I would be stunned if there were duplicate entries.[Now the playoff contest, that's a different story. Tons of dupes there.]

I thought that had happened in past seasons. I'm sure that some entries are just a couple injuries away from being duplicates of each other Thanks for all the hard work!(and thanks for making realize that maybe my team is a little more unique than I first feared)-QG

 

[Hawk Fan]

For someone with too much time on their hands: How many unique entries could be submitted given the minimum lineup requirements and salary cap? Less or more than the number of unique entries for the NCAA basketball tournament?

 

[jon_mx]

For someone with too much time on their hands: How many unique entries could be submitted given the minimum lineup requirements and salary cap? Less or more than the number of unique entries for the NCAA basketball tournament?

That would take too long, but what I could tell you is how many unique combinations there are choosing 22 players out of a pool of 300 (approximate, don't have list but that is very close). There are 1,268 x 10^33. That's a 1 with 33 zeros after it. Now many of those would be illegal combinations, but a good percentage would be legal. It would take a large computer program to run through the list and eliminate the illegals ones, but I am sure that there are more than 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 legal combinations. But 99.999999999% of them are eliminated by common sense.

 

[billsfan8282]

I think it comes down to who has the best performing players in the lowest % of teams...go Andre Johnson & Pennington!

My Team

> 40%

RB - Steve Slaton - 1 | 56.6%

QB - Kurt Warner - 5 | 51.4%

RB - Ricky Williams - 8 | 49.2%

RB - Ray Rice - 4 | 44.2%

20 - 25%

WR - Calvin Johnson - 25 | 22.4%

WR - Kevin Walter - 6 | 21.1 %

10 - 19.9%

PK - Matt Prater - 1 | 19.5%

WR - Santonio Holmes - 24 | 18.8%

TD - Minnesota Vikings - 8 | 16.9%

WR - Muhsin Muhammad - 5 14.8%

RB - Michael Turner - 28 | 13.1%

RB - Selvin Young - 21 | 12.7%

TE - Anthony Fasano - 3 | 11.0%

WR - Steve Breaston - 1 | 10.9%

RB - DeAngelo Williams - 15 | 10.7%

5 - 9.9%

RB - Maurice Morris - 11 | 8.3%

TD - New York Jets - 2 | 7.8%

RB - Jonathan Stewart - 21 | 7.4%

TE - Zach Miller - 15 | 7.0%

< 5%

QB - Chad Pennington - 9 | 4.8%

WR - Andre Johnson - 35 | 3.3%

PK - Matt Stover - 2 | 4.6%

Is there a link to see all the %'s? Is this posted on the website?

 

[vamphyri]

I think it comes down to who has the best performing players in the lowest % of teams...go Andre Johnson & Pennington!

My Team

> 40%

RB - Steve Slaton - 1 | 56.6%

QB - Kurt Warner - 5 | 51.4%

RB - Ricky Williams - 8 | 49.2%

RB - Ray Rice - 4 | 44.2%

20 - 25%

WR - Calvin Johnson - 25 | 22.4%

WR - Kevin Walter - 6 | 21.1 %

10 - 19.9%

PK - Matt Prater - 1 | 19.5%

WR - Santonio Holmes - 24 | 18.8%

TD - Minnesota Vikings - 8 | 16.9%

WR - Muhsin Muhammad - 5 14.8%

RB - Michael Turner - 28 | 13.1%

RB - Selvin Young - 21 | 12.7%

TE - Anthony Fasano - 3 | 11.0%

WR - Steve Breaston - 1 | 10.9%

RB - DeAngelo Williams - 15 | 10.7%

5 - 9.9%

RB - Maurice Morris - 11 | 8.3%

TD - New York Jets - 2 | 7.8%

RB - Jonathan Stewart - 21 | 7.4%

TE - Zach Miller - 15 | 7.0%

< 5%

QB - Chad Pennington - 9 | 4.8%

WR - Andre Johnson - 35 | 3.3%

PK - Matt Stover - 2 | 4.6%

Is there a link to see all the %'s? Is this posted on the website?

Post #667 in this thread.eta: link

 

[FUBAR]

For someone with too much time on their hands: How many unique entries could be submitted given the minimum lineup requirements and salary cap? Less or more than the number of unique entries for the NCAA basketball tournament?

That would take too long, but what I could tell you is how many unique combinations there are choosing 22 players out of a pool of 300 (approximate, don't have list but that is very close). There are 1,268 x 10^33. That's a 1 with 33 zeros after it. Now many of those would be illegal combinations, but a good percentage would be legal. It would take a large computer program to run through the list and eliminate the illegals ones, but I am sure that there are more than 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 legal combinations. But 99.999999999% of them are eliminated by common sense.

Aside from common sense, how do you account for values (not exceeding $250) with that?

 

[QuizGuy66]

So my team totals up to 410.9% for an average owned percentage of 18.675%.

My receiver crops apparently is pretty unusual.

My Team

> 40%

RB - Steve Slaton - 1 | 56.6%

QB - Kurt Warner - 5 | 51.4%

RB - Ricky Williams - 8 | 49.2%

RB - Ray Rice - 4 | 44.2%

25-40%

TE - Dustin Keller - 2 | 28.2%

QB - Tony Romo - 23 | 26.8%

10 - 25%

WR - Kevin Walter - 6 | 21.1%

PK - Matt Prater - 1 | 19.5%

QB - Matt Ryan - 4 | 16.3%

TD - Detroit - 1 | 13.2%

WR - Steve Breaston - 1 | 10.9%

WR - Santana Moss - 14 | 10.4%

5 - 9.9%

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew - 34 | 9.0%

WR - Larry Fitzgerald - 35 | 8.3%

TD - Tennessee - 3 | 8.2%

WR - D Hagan - 4 | 6.7%

RB - LT2 - 60 | 6.5%

WR - Bernard Berrian - 13 | 6.2%

PK - Phil Dawson - 3 | 5.8%

WR - S Smith - 5 | 5.2%

< 5%

TD - San Diego - 8 | 4.3%

TE - T Heap - 15 | 2.9%



-QG

 

[cjack]

For someone with too much time on their hands: How many unique entries could be submitted given the minimum lineup requirements and salary cap? Less or more than the number of unique entries for the NCAA basketball tournament?

That would take too long, but what I could tell you is how many unique combinations there are choosing 22 players out of a pool of 300 (approximate, don't have list but that is very close). There are 1,268 x 10^33. That's a 1 with 33 zeros after it. Now many of those would be illegal combinations, but a good percentage would be legal. It would take a large computer program to run through the list and eliminate the illegals ones, but I am sure that there are more than 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 legal combinations. But 99.999999999% of them are eliminated by common sense.

Aside from common sense, how do you account for values (not exceeding $250) with that?

He doesn't, nor does he account for player position requirements. I realize the actual calculation would take some doing, but the estimation above is of little use or interest.

 

[tomarken]

Eli Manning $15

I like the way this season is starting.

 

[jon_mx]

For someone with too much time on their hands: How many unique entries could be submitted given the minimum lineup requirements and salary cap? Less or more than the number of unique entries for the NCAA basketball tournament?

That would take too long, but what I could tell you is how many unique combinations there are choosing 22 players out of a pool of 300 (approximate, don't have list but that is very close). There are 1,268 x 10^33. That's a 1 with 33 zeros after it. Now many of those would be illegal combinations, but a good percentage would be legal. It would take a large computer program to run through the list and eliminate the illegals ones, but I am sure that there are more than 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 legal combinations. But 99.999999999% of them are eliminated by common sense.

Aside from common sense, how do you account for values (not exceeding $250) with that?

He doesn't, nor does he account for player position requirements. I realize the actual calculation would take some doing, but the estimation above is of little use or interest.

You run through that number of calculations and get back to me. I gave you an order of magnitude number based on the actual number of possible combinations. Really, with a number that big, does it really matter whether it has 31, 32, or 33 zeros after it. The number is so large it is incomprehensible.

 

[tomarken]

For someone with too much time on their hands: How many unique entries could be submitted given the minimum lineup requirements and salary cap? Less or more than the number of unique entries for the NCAA basketball tournament?

That would take too long, but what I could tell you is how many unique combinations there are choosing 22 players out of a pool of 300 (approximate, don't have list but that is very close). There are 1,268 x 10^33. That's a 1 with 33 zeros after it. Now many of those would be illegal combinations, but a good percentage would be legal. It would take a large computer program to run through the list and eliminate the illegals ones, but I am sure that there are more than 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 legal combinations. But 99.999999999% of them are eliminated by common sense.

Aside from common sense, how do you account for values (not exceeding $250) with that?

He doesn't, nor does he account for player position requirements. I realize the actual calculation would take some doing, but the estimation above is of little use or interest.

You run through that number of calculations and get back to me. I gave you an order of magnitude number based on the actual number of possible combinations. Really, with a number that big, does it really matter whether it has 31, 32, or 33 zeros after it. The number is so large it is incomprehensible.

Suffice to say, there are way more legal rosters in this contest than there are combinations in the March Madness tournament. WAY more.

 

[cjack]

For someone with too much time on their hands: How many unique entries could be submitted given the minimum lineup requirements and salary cap? Less or more than the number of unique entries for the NCAA basketball tournament?

That would take too long, but what I could tell you is how many unique combinations there are choosing 22 players out of a pool of 300 (approximate, don't have list but that is very close). There are 1,268 x 10^33. That's a 1 with 33 zeros after it. Now many of those would be illegal combinations, but a good percentage would be legal. It would take a large computer program to run through the list and eliminate the illegals ones, but I am sure that there are more than 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 legal combinations. But 99.999999999% of them are eliminated by common sense.

Aside from common sense, how do you account for values (not exceeding $250) with that?

He doesn't, nor does he account for player position requirements. I realize the actual calculation would take some doing, but the estimation above is of little use or interest.

You run through that number of calculations and get back to me. I gave you an order of magnitude number based on the actual number of possible combinations. Really, with a number that big, does it really matter whether it has 31, 32, or 33 zeros after it. The number is so large it is incomprehensible.

Yea, and I knew that before you ran your figure. I appreciate that you did it, and I appreciate further that there's no way I can calculate the actual odds. My point was really just that it would be interesting to see the actual odds, but I'm in no position to determine them, as I suspect is the case for most on this board.

 

[Hawk Fan]

For someone with too much time on their hands: How many unique entries could be submitted given the minimum lineup requirements and salary cap? Less or more than the number of unique entries for the NCAA basketball tournament?

That would take too long, but what I could tell you is how many unique combinations there are choosing 22 players out of a pool of 300 (approximate, don't have list but that is very close). There are 1,268 x 10^33. That's a 1 with 33 zeros after it. Now many of those would be illegal combinations, but a good percentage would be legal. It would take a large computer program to run through the list and eliminate the illegals ones, but I am sure that there are more than 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 legal combinations. But 99.999999999% of them are eliminated by common sense.

Aside from common sense, how do you account for values (not exceeding $250) with that?

He doesn't, nor does he account for player position requirements. I realize the actual calculation would take some doing, but the estimation above is of little use or interest.

You run through that number of calculations and get back to me. I gave you an order of magnitude number based on the actual number of possible combinations. Really, with a number that big, does it really matter whether it has 31, 32, or 33 zeros after it. The number is so large it is incomprehensible.

Suffice to say, there are way more legal rosters in this contest than there are combinations in the March Madness tournament. WAY more.

That's what I figured.

 

[tomarken]

Eli Manning $15Santana Moss $14

Just keeps getting better. I can already taste that $20,000!Well, actually, I'll probably only eat half of it, and use the rest to pay for my PSL's.

 

[FF Maestro]

QB - Tony Romo - 23

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

RB - LaDainian Tomlinson - 60

RB - Willie Parker - 23

RB - Chester Taylor - 14

RB - Ricky Williams - 8

RB - Steve Slaton - 1

WR - Larry Fitzgerald - 35

WR - Brandon Marshall - 23

WR - Nate Burleson - 18

WR - Jabar Gaffney - 7

WR - Muhsin Muhammad - 5

WR - Derek Hagan - 4

TE - Alge Crumpler - 11

PK - Robbie Gould - 2

PK - Mike Nugent - 1

PK - Jason Hanson - 1

PK - Matt Prater - 1

TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - 5

TD - Detroit Lions - 1

TD - Miami Dolphins - 1

TD - Cincinnati Bengals - 1

 

[BassNBrew]

Cooley and Portis owners have to be sweating this week.

 

[Das Boot]

Cooley and Portis owners have to be sweating this week.

Yeah, they could be one of the 300 teams cut this week.

 

[BassNBrew]

Cooley and Portis owners have to be sweating this week.

Yeah, they could be one of the 300 teams cut this week.

As a Smith/marshall owner, better them than me.

 

[Das Boot]

Cooley and Portis owners have to be sweating this week.

Yeah, they could be one of the 300 teams cut this week.

As a Smith/marshall owner, better them than me.

Ditto... just get me to week 3 when Smith/Marshall are both back on the field.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Here's a different twist on the numbers. Based on Drinen's %'s and using 12,650 as the number of entries, here are the number of owners of my team:

RB Steve Slaton - 7160

QB Kurt Warner - 6502

RB Ricky Williams - 6224

RB Ray Rice - 5591

WR Jerricho Cotchery - 3580

TE Dustin Keller - 3567

WR Brandon Marshall - 3403

PK Jason Hanson - 3087

QB Jay Cutler - 2783

RB Clinton Portis - 2302

QB Jake Delhomme - 1935

WR Steve Smith (CAR) - 1923

TD Miami Dolphins - 1720

PK Kris Brown - 1556

WR Steve Breaston - 1379

RB Maurice Jones-Drew - 1138

WR Derrick Mason - 1050

RB Maurice Morris - 1050

TD New York Jets - 987

WR Reggie Williams - 772

RB Leon Washington - 531

TE Tony Gonzalez - 354

250 of the 12650 entries make it to week 14, or roughly 2% (well, it's actually 1.976 with a bunch more numbers after the 6). Using those numbers and assuming I can make it to the big show, here are the numbers of owners of each player (I know, these numbers can change dramatically based on which 250 teams make it):

RB Steve Slaton - 141

QB Kurt Warner - 128

RB Ricky Williams - 123

RB Ray Rice - 110

WR Jerricho Cotchery - 71

TE Dustin Keller - 70

WR Brandon Marshall - 67

PK Jason Hanson - 61

QB Jay Cutler - 55

RB Clinton Portis - 45

QB Jake Delhomme - 38

WR Steve Smith (CAR) - 38

TD Miami Dolphins - 34

PK Kris Brown - 31

WR Steve Breaston - 27

RB Maurice Jones-Drew - 22

WR Derrick Mason - 21

RB Maurice Morris - 21

TD New York Jets - 20

WR Reggie Williams - 15

RB Leon Washington - 10

TE Tony Gonzalez - 7

 

[Doug Drinen]

Here's an interesting breakdown:

Of the big four: Warner, Slaton, Ray Rice, and Ricky Williams, here is the percentage of rosters that have...

All four: 10.9%

three of the four: 26.0%

two of the four: 28.7%

one of the four: 22.5%

none of the four: 11.9%

 

[southeastjerome]

QB - Matt Schaub - 13

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

QB - Matt Ryan - 4

RB - Brian Westbrook - 54

RB - Clinton Portis - 33

RB - Chester Taylor - 14

RB - Ray Rice - 4

RB - Steve Slaton - 1

WR - Marques Colston - 30

WR - Brandon Marshall - 23

WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23

WR - Isaac Bruce - 10

WR - Courtney Taylor - 3

WR - Steve Breaston - 1

TE - Owen Daniels - 19

TE - Dustin Keller - 2

TE - David Martin - 1

PK - Kris Brown - 2

PK - Shaun Suisham - 1

TD - Carolina Panthers - 3

TD - Houston Texans - 2

TD - New York Jets - 2

 

[yabahos]

Second, I've always assumed that you were at a distinct disadvantage if you didn't have most or all of the apparent "super value players" like Slaton, Rice, Ricky, Warner, Keller, etc. But has anyone looked at the top-20 teams last year to determine if this were true? Maybe the group of "super value players" is irrelevant and trumped by having the best subgroup of players that have really big years and peak at the right time (whether or not you have any of the super value players). Alternatively, maybe having the super value players helps you to survive through Week 13, but is less relevant in Weeks 14-16.

You can judge for yourself -2007 Final ResultsThe guys that really made a difference last year were Anthony Gonzalez, Brandon Marshall and Jason Witten. Pretty sure Witten was the high scorer (not including QBs) for the contest playoffs. Getting almost 80 from the TE position in three weeks was huge.The season starts out and the most common players will drive the floor for the weekly cuts. As teams fall out the players that are having really great years begin to materialize and start to exert more of an impact on the weekly cuts. By the time the contest playoffs roll around a new group of "most common players" has emerged. See AP last year. He probably wasn't on a high % of teams to start the contest but he was on a high % of the final 250.During the playoffs its all about who's hot for those three weeks.

 

[CrossEyed]

Cooley and Portis owners have to be sweating this week.

Meh, 8.4 isn't great, but it won't completely kill you. I had 4 or 5 weeks last year using a RB that scored in single digits and I still advanced.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

As a Smith/marshall owner, better them than me.

Me too, and I was just wondering how many teams had BOTH of them. The tiny cut % Week 1 and reduced suspension to Marshall makes this a lot more appealing than it would have been otherwise.

 

[Doug Drinen]

5.6% of rosters have Smith and Marshall.

If you multiply the Smith and Marshall percentages together, you'd get 4.1%. So this means that people who took one of these two had a slight relative tendency to take the other one also.

 

[Bankerguy]

Can I ask how many teams have all of TO/LT2/ADP on their roster?

 

[Doug Drinen]

51 entries have Smith, Marshall, and Cooley. That's a quarter of their budget tied up in 2.2 points.

Still, I bet most of these people survive. The selections of Smith and Marshall are a bit of a gamble, but they demonstrate a good understanding of the nature of the game, so I'm guessing the rest of their lineups are solid enough to get them by in week 1.

 

[apalmer]

As a Smith/marshall owner, better them than me.

Me too, and I was just wondering how many teams had BOTH of them. The tiny cut % Week 1 and reduced suspension to Marshall makes this a lot more appealing than it would have been otherwise.

I was hoping that there would be no Week 1 cut like last year, and Marshall's suspension wouldn't matter. Even with a cut, the cut line for the bottom 600 in Week 1 last year would have been about 111 points. Assuming it's something similar this year (i.e., all 600 additional entries are higher than the bottom 600 last year), it should still be safe going without Marshall and Smith. Week 2 cut was 128, which may go up, since a lot of the teams below that number may now get cut in Week 1 instead. Again, even bumping the number up 600 spots, the 9400th entry in Week 2 last year was around 132. That's a little tighter, but with some luck and Marshall back, it's a reasonable gamble to hopefully set up big weeks later.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Can I ask how many teams have all of TO/LT2/ADP on their roster?

Eleven.Just for fun, here are the QBs on those 11 squads:ManningBrees/RyanWarner/Ryan/OrtonBrady/JacksonRodgers/RyanBrees/DelhommeRomo/OrtonRomo/DelhommeBrady/WarnerBrady/GarciaRomo

 

[apalmer]

Can I ask how many teams have all of TO/LT2/ADP on their roster?

Eleven.Just for fun, here are the QBs on those 11 squads:ManningBrees/RyanWarner/Ryan/OrtonBrady/JacksonRodgers/RyanBrees/DelhommeRomo/OrtonRomo/DelhommeBrady/WarnerBrady/GarciaRomo

The ultimate stud theory--Brady/LT/ADP/TO=$191, leaving $59 for the other 18 spots. That's an awful lot of $1-3 players. The teams with Romo save $19 but will have a tough Week 10.

 

[nzranger]

I am a defending finalist. As most of you I got the big values thru out as identified above. Why I will win is because I worked in Whitten and Zach Miller as my TE'S. QB'S Cutler, Delhomme, and Warnerrbs barber,T.Jones,r.williams, rice,slaton and my key to sucess that will make a difference playoff time R.Torainwr's s.Smith, harrison,driver.mason.walter,breaston and Austinte's Whitten and Z.Millerk-kaeding and dawsond cowboys and BillsThank you in advance for the big check this year

I like this team but it could be problems week 10 (No Barber, Rice, Mason, Austin, Witten, Cowboys). How does this team compare to last years finalist?

Makes me feel good about my team.. I just have to make it thru wk5 QB's Schaub, Delhomme, WarnerRB's SJax, T.Jones, R.Williams, S.Slaton, B.Leonard, TJ Duckett (I should have just used the last two as 1 pt def, or kickers)WR Boldin, SSmith, Marshall, Harrison, Walter, BreastonTE Witten, C.BakerK Nugent, NedneyDef Texans, Saints, Bengals

 

[Das Boot]

5.6% of rosters have Smith and Marshall.If you multiply the Smith and Marshall percentages together, you'd get 4.1%. So this means that people who took one of these two had a slight relative tendency to take the other one also.

I think having both Smith and Marshall will be one of the keys to having a team that goes deep into the contest this year.The suspensions apparently really cut down on the number of people taking them. Remember when looking at the projections for each that the suspended games are factored in... meaning each will be getting a higher ppg than the projections suggest at first glance.

 

[Doug Drinen]

The suspensions apparently really cut down on the number of people taking [steve Smith and Brandon Marshall].

I'm not sure about that. Marshall is the second-most-taken WR and Smith is the 8th. I think the number of people scared off by the suspensions was balanced (and then some) by the number who were thinking along the same lines as you.

 

[perry147]

The suspensions apparently really cut down on the number of people taking [steve Smith and Brandon Marshall].

I'm not sure about that. Marshall is the second-most-taken WR and Smith is the 8th. I think the number of people scared off by the suspensions was balanced (and then some) by the number who were thinking along the same lines as you.

:X Exactly. I took BM because I figured I could wait on him to come back and not get cut.

 

[JKL]

5.6% of rosters have Smith and Marshall.If you multiply the Smith and Marshall percentages together, you'd get 4.1%. So this means that people who took one of these two had a slight relative tendency to take the other one also.

Okay, so how many people who have Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor on the same roster, am I in the minority playing that strategy in a best ball scenario? Do the Peterson/Taylor percentages suggest people tend to have both, or have them separately?I won't bore everyone with my entire roster, and this is the first year I have played, so I will surely learn a few things I didn't think about. I will be interested to see how my decision not to roster Ray Rice (because I figured everyone would) and go with a relatively obscure Jason Wright play in my final RB spot will matter, if at all. My thinking was:a) he is obscure and will be on very few rosters in this contest;b) he plays in a good situation for accruing running fantasy points, if he gets the opportunity due to injury;c) he plays behind a 29 year old Jamal Lewis;d) if I am fortunate enough to make it past the middle of the season, that would be the time when he would matter the most and be on very few rosters, and could be a wildcard difference maker.In essence, he is my Ladell Betts/Kenny Watson/Dominic Rhodes/Olandis Gary play. More likely than not, it won't help me. But I think his chances of making a difference in this contest (5-10% of a serious injury to Lewis; more than 50% chance that Lewis misses at least a game this year) exceed his relative cost and percentage of roster appearances by a good amount.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Looking for an edumacation here if someone could provide some insight to building a good best ball team. (This is my first year in this format).

From day one I had Chester Taylor locked in as a must have in this format. You reap the benefits of his good games plus the incredible upside should AP become injured. I consider it near a sure thing due to his running style ala Jacobs.

Taylor only on less than 5% of all rosters. My best guess is Slaton/Rice/Williams gobbled up RB roster spots.

Why did you leave Chester on the scrap heap?

 

[tomarken]

Looking for an edumacation here if someone could provide some insight to building a good best ball team. (This is my first year in this format).

From day one I had Chester Taylor locked in as a must have in this format. You reap the benefits of his good games plus the incredible upside should AP become injured. I consider it near a sure thing due to his running style ala Jacobs.

Taylor only on less than 5% of all rosters. My best guess is Slaton/Rice/Williams gobbled up RB roster spots.

Why did you leave Chester on the scrap heap?

Everyone was on the Chris Johnson Hype MachineTM instead.

 

[Das Boot]

Looking for an edumacation here if someone could provide some insight to building a good best ball team. (This is my first year in this format).From day one I had Chester Taylor locked in as a must have in this format. You reap the benefits of his good games plus the incredible upside should AP become injured. I consider it near a sure thing due to his running style ala Jacobs. Taylor only on less than 5% of all rosters. My best guess is Slaton/Rice/Williams gobbled up RB roster spots.Why did you leave Chester on the scrap heap?

Last year I had ADP and Taylor, this year just Taylor.I agree with your reasons, particularly I figured most people wouldn't take Taylor because of his cost.I don't think it's necessarily highly probably that ADP misses time, but if he does Taylor is golden and you have to take some chances in this contest to realistically hope to win it.It was only worth it though because Taylor will likely have some games where he contributes to my team's RB score even just playing part time.

 

[Das Boot]

The suspensions apparently really cut down on the number of people taking [steve Smith and Brandon Marshall].

I'm not sure about that. Marshall is the second-most-taken WR and Smith is the 8th. I think the number of people scared off by the suspensions was balanced (and then some) by the number who were thinking along the same lines as you.

Agreed, I meant the pair - 5% as you mentioned above. I think it will be a huge advantage having those 2 go forward after the 1st 2 weeks.

 

[JKL]

Looking for an edumacation here if someone could provide some insight to building a good best ball team. (This is my first year in this format).From day one I had Chester Taylor locked in as a must have in this format. You reap the benefits of his good games plus the incredible upside should AP become injured. I consider it near a sure thing due to his running style ala Jacobs. Taylor only on less than 5% of all rosters. My best guess is Slaton/Rice/Williams gobbled up RB roster spots.Why did you leave Chester on the scrap heap?

It sounds like you went with just Chester, whereas I went with both. It was pricey, but in looking at last year, the RB1 from Chester Taylor/Peterson averaged 21.0 FP/g in a best ball format, and the second highest scoring one from that group would have likely counted as a starter in the lineup for five games. Only twice was the leader in single digits, with a low of 7 fantasy points. Chester is a relatively expensive gamble by himself, but paired with Peterson for $67 total, creates an expensive, but relatively safe uber-RB1.

 

[H8fulHuck]

5.6% of rosters have Smith and Marshall.If you multiply the Smith and Marshall percentages together, you'd get 4.1%. So this means that people who took one of these two had a slight relative tendency to take the other one also.

Okay, so how many people who have Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor on the same roster, am I in the minority playing that strategy in a best ball scenario? Do the Peterson/Taylor percentages suggest people tend to have both, or have them separately?I won't bore everyone with my entire roster, and this is the first year I have played, so I will surely learn a few things I didn't think about. I will be interested to see how my decision not to roster Ray Rice (because I figured everyone would) and go with a relatively obscure Jason Wright play in my final RB spot will matter, if at all. My thinking was:a) he is obscure and will be on very few rosters in this contest;b) he plays in a good situation for accruing running fantasy points, if he gets the opportunity due to injury;c) he plays behind a 29 year old Jamal Lewis;d) if I am fortunate enough to make it past the middle of the season, that would be the time when he would matter the most and be on very few rosters, and could be a wildcard difference maker.In essence, he is my Ladell Betts/Kenny Watson/Dominic Rhodes/Olandis Gary play. More likely than not, it won't help me. But I think his chances of making a difference in this contest (5-10% of a serious injury to Lewis; more than 50% chance that Lewis misses at least a game this year) exceed his relative cost and percentage of roster appearances by a good amount.

I didn't go with AD & Taylor because that would be a big part of my lineup with the same bye. You might skate by with the week 4 or 5 bye, but you are pressing it past that. A better 1-2 combo is Portis/Betts for the price, but that's 2 roster spots for 1 position.I agree with you on Ray Rice. I think the timing of the hype machine pushed him onto so many rosters. If Rice does have a good year though, the teams without this popular option will be behind the 8-ball.

 

[tomarken]

I didn't go with AD & Taylor because that would be a big part of my lineup with the same bye. You might skate by with the week 4 or 5 bye, but you are pressing it past that. A better 1-2 combo is Portis/Betts for the price, but that's 2 roster spots for 1 position.

If AP/CT is risky because of their week 8 bye, how is Portis/Betts a better combo with a week 10 bye?

 

[Synthesizer]

Looking for an edumacation here if someone could provide some insight to building a good best ball team. (This is my first year in this format).From day one I had Chester Taylor locked in as a must have in this format. You reap the benefits of his good games plus the incredible upside should AP become injured. I consider it near a sure thing due to his running style ala Jacobs. Taylor only on less than 5% of all rosters. My best guess is Slaton/Rice/Williams gobbled up RB roster spots.Why did you leave Chester on the scrap heap?

I tossed Chester onto the scrap heap because of his price. With Williams ($8), Rice ($4), and Slaton ($1), you get 3 guys who could have been starting week 1 and have almost as much upside but at a fraction of the cost of Chester ($14).