2025 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[BassNBrew]

Decided to see how the top weekly scoring teams have done

Week 1 - scored 215.20, booted week 7
Week 2 - scored 233.75, booted week 5
Week 3 - scored 232.00, survived week 4 by 1.40 pts, still alive
Week 4 - scored 240.75, survived week 3 by 4.00 pts, still alive
Week 5 - scored 238.55, survived week 7 by 5.70 pts, still alive
Week 6 - scored 223.95, survived week 8 by 1.6 pts, still alive
Week 7 - scored 254.70, survived week 4 by 5.80 pts, still alive
Week 8 - scored 223.25, survived week 4 by 12.50 pts, still alive

Looks like they all had a close call, except the week 8 team.

Is there a lesson there wrt winning the contest or is it a red herring?

I think it’s important to remind ourselves when constructing a roster, that the object of this contest is not scoring the most points.

Rather, it’s constructing a roster in a way to spread out enough points across all 14 weeks in order to survive and make the playoffs.

This likely means your roster will not necessarily post as many really high weekly scores, but it also has a better chance of surviving
the first 14 weeks. Using this approach obviously means managing bye week absences, and usually means not rostering some players
we like, due to bye week conflicts with other players.

The wild card is injuries, which we all know will happen.

When I’m building my roster, I usually do so assuming I’m likely to lose a RB and a couple WR or TE to injuries. That goes into the calculation of how many players to roster at each position.

I think to win this contest, you probably have to be both good, and also a bit lucky.

I feel like this is only a part of the analysis (and why this is so tough). Because in order to actually WIN the contest, you have to have some really high scores for 3 weeks straight which is in direct conflict with securing a deeper roster for survival.

The true key to success is finding the diamonds in the rough who can either provide cheap consistency or have some kind of crazy run during the final 3 weeks. I basically built my roster around trying to find those guys and then building my position groups up from there.

I think 80% skill in picking your roster and 20% luck gets you to Week 15, and then 20% skill and 80% luck takes over for the last 3 weeks. Personally, I consider it a total win for me if I just make it into the playoffs.

Too high on the skill part. Avoiding injury OR having guys blow up on weeks when you're crushed with injuries and byes is the biggest factor.

 

[Puppies]

Just to inject a little bit of nostalgia here while we wait for week 9, I thought I'd share my "blast from the past".

Turn the clock back to 2011, which was my very first year playing this contest, and as luck would have it, I
ended up being BOTH lucky AND good that first year!

I had a roster of only 18 players, as follows:

QB - Aaron Rodgers -GB. . . $31
QB- Matt Stafford -DET . . . . $18
RB - Maurice Jones Drew -JAX. . $30
RB - Millis McGahee -DEN. . . . .$11
RB - James Starks -GB . . . . .$16
RB - Felix Jones -DAL . . . . . $23
RB - Isaac Redman -PIT . . . . . $2
WR - Calvin Johnson -DET . . . $31
WR - Roddy White -ATL . . . $30
WR - Antonio Brown -PIT . . . $3
WR - Lance Moore -NO . . . . $10
WR - Denarius Moore - OAK . . $3
TE - Aaron Hernandez - NE . . . $10
TE - Owen Daniels -HOU . . . . $12
PK - Matt Bryant -ATL . . . . . $4
PK - Adam Vinatieri -IND . . . $4
DEF - New England . . . . . . $7
DEF - New Orleans . . . . . . $5

I made the playoffs that year and in the first playoff week, I remember getting a middle of the pack score and I was sitting in 141st place out of 250 teams after playoff week 1.
Then in playoff week 2, the Stafford - Megatron stack paid off big-time and I posted the 2nd highest score of all the playoff teams (at 241.05 points) and stood in 2nd place overall after 2 playoff weeks.
In playoff week 3, I did well, but not as well as week 2, but I only dropped 2 spots and finished in 4th place in the contest, missing 3nd place by just 1.30 points. I won $1,500 cash, a $350 team entry into the following year's FooballGuys Championship, plus either a 2 or 3 year free subscription (I can't remember if it was 2 or 3 years).

Looking back to that 2nd week of the playoffs. . . (I went back and found my scoring spreadsheet from that week)....

In that 2nd playoff week Stafford ran for 5 yards, threw for 391 yards and 4 TDs with 2 of them going to Calvin Johnson, who had 9 receptions for 214 yards and 2 TDs.
Stafford scored 44.05, and Calvin Johnson scored 42.40. My 2nd WR Roddy White had 10 catches for 135 yards and 2 TDs, for 35.50 points.
My RBs only put up moderate scores with Felix Jones rushing for 108, plus 3 receptions for 23 yards (14.60 points), while Jones Drew put up 112 yards, 1 catch for 1yd for 11.80 points.
TE Aaron Hernandez ran for 16, had 9 catches for 129 yards and 1TD, totaling 34.00 points.
My flex scores were 26.10 from WR Lance Moore, and 10.90 from Antonio Brown.
PK Vinatieri put up 11.70, and the New England Defense put up 10.00.
Total Weekly Score for playoff week 2 = 241.05

Crazy stuff for sure .... That 2nd week was a dream week

 

[TheWinz]

Just to inject a little bit of nostalgia here while we wait for week 9, I thought I'd share my "blast from the past".

Turn the clock back to 2011, which was my very first year playing this contest, and as luck would have it, I
ended up being BOTH lucky AND good that first year!

I had a roster of only 18 players, as follows:

QB - Aaron Rodgers -GB. . . $31
QB- Matt Stafford -DET . . . . $18
RB - Maurice Jones Drew -JAX. . $30
RB - Millis McGahee -DEN. . . . .$11
RB - James Starks -GB . . . . .$16
RB - Felix Jones -DAL . . . . . $23
RB - Isaac Redman -PIT . . . . . $2
WR - Calvin Johnson -DET . . . $31
WR - Roddy White -ATL . . . $30
WR - Antonio Brown -PIT . . . $3
WR - Lance Moore -NO . . . . $10
WR - Denarius Moore - OAK . . $3
TE - Aaron Hernandez - NE . . . $10
TE - Owen Daniels -HOU . . . . $12
PK - Matt Bryant -ATL . . . . . $4
PK - Adam Vinatieri -IND . . . $4
DEF - New England . . . . . . $7
DEF - New Orleans . . . . . . $5

I made the playoffs that year and in the first playoff week, I remember getting a middle of the pack score and I was sitting in 141st place out of 250 teams after playoff week 1.
Then in playoff week 2, the Stafford - Megatron stack paid off big-time and I posted the 2nd highest score of all the playoff teams (at 241.05 points) and stood in 2nd place overall after 2 playoff weeks.
In playoff week 3, I did well, but not as well as week 2, but I only dropped 2 spots and finished in 4th place in the contest, missing 3nd place by just 1.30 points. I won $1,500 cash, a $350 team entry into the following year's FooballGuys Championship, plus either a 2 or 3 year free subscription (I can't remember if it was 2 or 3 years).

Looking back to that 2nd week of the playoffs. . . (I went back and found my scoring spreadsheet from that week)....

In that 2nd playoff week Stafford ran for 5 yards, threw for 391 yards and 4 TDs with 2 of them going to Calvin Johnson, who had 9 receptions for 214 yards and 2 TDs.
Stafford scored 44.05, and Calvin Johnson scored 42.40. My 2nd WR Roddy White had 10 catches for 135 yards and 2 TDs, for 35.50 points.
My RBs only put up moderate scores with Felix Jones rushing for 108, plus 3 receptions for 23 yards (14.60 points), while Jones Drew put up 112 yards, 1 catch for 1yd for 11.80 points.
TE Aaron Hernandez ran for 16, had 9 catches for 129 yards and 1TD, totaling 34.00 points.
My flex scores were 26.10 from WR Lance Moore, and 10.90 from Antonio Brown.
PK Vinatieri put up 11.70, and the New England Defense put up 10.00.
Total Weekly Score for playoff week 2 = 241.05

Crazy stuff for sure .... That 2nd week was a dream week

So, looks like an 18-player roster full of studs is the way to go. Got it.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Just to inject a little bit of nostalgia here while we wait for week 9, I thought I'd share my "blast from the past".

QB - Aaron Rodgers -GB. . . $31

WR - Antonio Brown -PIT . . . $3

TE - Aaron Hernandez - NE . . . $10

Your forecasting was prescient...almost like you went into a darkness retreat....absolutely criminal...you killed it!

 

[Mojo56]

My ghost team made the cut this week with 0 pts from my QB! Ever since I was bounced in week 4 by 2' pts my team is humming along.

 

[Charles in Houston]

Just to inject a little bit of nostalgia here while we wait for week 9, I thought I'd share my "blast from the past".

Turn the clock back to 2011, which was my very first year playing this contest, and as luck would have it, I
ended up being BOTH lucky AND good that first year!

I had a roster of only 18 players, as follows:

QB - Aaron Rodgers -GB. . . $31
QB- Matt Stafford -DET . . . . $18
RB - Maurice Jones Drew -JAX. . $30
RB - Millis McGahee -DEN. . . . .$11
RB - James Starks -GB . . . . .$16
RB - Felix Jones -DAL . . . . . $23
RB - Isaac Redman -PIT . . . . . $2
WR - Calvin Johnson -DET . . . $31
WR - Roddy White -ATL . . . $30
WR - Antonio Brown -PIT . . . $3
WR - Lance Moore -NO . . . . $10
WR - Denarius Moore - OAK . . $3
TE - Aaron Hernandez - NE . . . $10
TE - Owen Daniels -HOU . . . . $12
PK - Matt Bryant -ATL . . . . . $4
PK - Adam Vinatieri -IND . . . $4
DEF - New England . . . . . . $7
DEF - New Orleans . . . . . . $5

I made the playoffs that year and in the first playoff week, I remember getting a middle of the pack score and I was sitting in 141st place out of 250 teams after playoff week 1.
Then in playoff week 2, the Stafford - Megatron stack paid off big-time and I posted the 2nd highest score of all the playoff teams (at 241.05 points) and stood in 2nd place overall after 2 playoff weeks.
In playoff week 3, I did well, but not as well as week 2, but I only dropped 2 spots and finished in 4th place in the contest, missing 3nd place by just 1.30 points. I won $1,500 cash, a $350 team entry into the following year's FooballGuys Championship, plus either a 2 or 3 year free subscription (I can't remember if it was 2 or 3 years).

Looking back to that 2nd week of the playoffs. . . (I went back and found my scoring spreadsheet from that week)....

In that 2nd playoff week Stafford ran for 5 yards, threw for 391 yards and 4 TDs with 2 of them going to Calvin Johnson, who had 9 receptions for 214 yards and 2 TDs.
Stafford scored 44.05, and Calvin Johnson scored 42.40. My 2nd WR Roddy White had 10 catches for 135 yards and 2 TDs, for 35.50 points.
My RBs only put up moderate scores with Felix Jones rushing for 108, plus 3 receptions for 23 yards (14.60 points), while Jones Drew put up 112 yards, 1 catch for 1yd for 11.80 points.
TE Aaron Hernandez ran for 16, had 9 catches for 129 yards and 1TD, totaling 34.00 points.
My flex scores were 26.10 from WR Lance Moore, and 10.90 from Antonio Brown.
PK Vinatieri put up 11.70, and the New England Defense put up 10.00.
Total Weekly Score for playoff week 2 = 241.05

Crazy stuff for sure .... That 2nd week was a dream week

Well done!! How many kills did Aaron Hernandez have that week?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

So...how bout those Red Sox?

 

[Puppies]

Just to inject a little bit of nostalgia here while we wait for week 9, I thought I'd share my "blast from the past".

QB - Aaron Rodgers -GB. . . $31

WR - Antonio Brown -PIT . . . $3

TE - Aaron Hernandez - NE . . . $10

Your forecasting was prescient...almost like you went into a darkness retreat....absolutely criminal...you killed it!

I had to look up that word to make sure, but thanks for the compliment

Too bad my forecasting has not been so prescient in other years .

 

[Puppies]

Just to inject a little bit of nostalgia here while we wait for week 9, I thought I'd share my "blast from the past".

Turn the clock back to 2011, which was my very first year playing this contest, and as luck would have it, I
ended up being BOTH lucky AND good that first year!

I had a roster of only 18 players, as follows:

QB - Aaron Rodgers -GB. . . $31
QB- Matt Stafford -DET . . . . $18
RB - Maurice Jones Drew -JAX. . $30
RB - Millis McGahee -DEN. . . . .$11
RB - James Starks -GB . . . . .$16
RB - Felix Jones -DAL . . . . . $23
RB - Isaac Redman -PIT . . . . . $2
WR - Calvin Johnson -DET . . . $31
WR - Roddy White -ATL . . . $30
WR - Antonio Brown -PIT . . . $3
WR - Lance Moore -NO . . . . $10
WR - Denarius Moore - OAK . . $3
TE - Aaron Hernandez - NE . . . $10
TE - Owen Daniels -HOU . . . . $12
PK - Matt Bryant -ATL . . . . . $4
PK - Adam Vinatieri -IND . . . $4
DEF - New England . . . . . . $7
DEF - New Orleans . . . . . . $5

I made the playoffs that year and in the first playoff week, I remember getting a middle of the pack score and I was sitting in 141st place out of 250 teams after playoff week 1.
Then in playoff week 2, the Stafford - Megatron stack paid off big-time and I posted the 2nd highest score of all the playoff teams (at 241.05 points) and stood in 2nd place overall after 2 playoff weeks.
In playoff week 3, I did well, but not as well as week 2, but I only dropped 2 spots and finished in 4th place in the contest, missing 3nd place by just 1.30 points. I won $1,500 cash, a $350 team entry into the following year's FooballGuys Championship, plus either a 2 or 3 year free subscription (I can't remember if it was 2 or 3 years).

Looking back to that 2nd week of the playoffs. . . (I went back and found my scoring spreadsheet from that week)....

In that 2nd playoff week Stafford ran for 5 yards, threw for 391 yards and 4 TDs with 2 of them going to Calvin Johnson, who had 9 receptions for 214 yards and 2 TDs.
Stafford scored 44.05, and Calvin Johnson scored 42.40. My 2nd WR Roddy White had 10 catches for 135 yards and 2 TDs, for 35.50 points.
My RBs only put up moderate scores with Felix Jones rushing for 108, plus 3 receptions for 23 yards (14.60 points), while Jones Drew put up 112 yards, 1 catch for 1yd for 11.80 points.
TE Aaron Hernandez ran for 16, had 9 catches for 129 yards and 1TD, totaling 34.00 points.
My flex scores were 26.10 from WR Lance Moore, and 10.90 from Antonio Brown.
PK Vinatieri put up 11.70, and the New England Defense put up 10.00.
Total Weekly Score for playoff week 2 = 241.05

Crazy stuff for sure .... That 2nd week was a dream week

So, looks like an 18-player roster full of studs is the way to go. Got it.

I think the bigger factor was that this lineup went through that season basically unscathed by injuries. Any 18-player roster that suffers one of two injuries is doomed.

Keep in mind that I also picked some winners. like Antonio Brown for $3 (shortly before he became one of those $30 wide receivers at the top of the list. And Aaron Hernandez who outplayed his $10 cap (and that was before he turned crazy). I rostered him because I was a Gators fan and saw how he played in college at Florida.
I had 2 stud QBs, and that meant that perhaps I wasted some cap money there, but I think I got a good score from at least one of them every week. It was insurance.
This was also before I met you and leaned that expensive defenses are usually not worth the money.

 

[TheWinz]

I think the bigger factor was that this lineup went through that season basically unscathed by injuries. Any 18-player roster that suffers one of two injuries is doomed.

You have to admit though - tiny stud-filled rosters are tons of fun.

 

[apalmer]

Just checked the weekly performance of my zombie team that was eliminated in week 2, and I’d still be alive now….except for getting eliminated in week 7. Oh, and also week 8 would’ve taken me out.

But if not for that, I’d be doing really great in this contest.

My team is averaging a solid 171.2 ppw and hasn't been less than 30 points over the cut line...except for Week 4, of course.

 

[joey]

Just checked the weekly performance of my zombie team that was eliminated in week 2, and I’d still be alive now….except for getting eliminated in week 7. Oh, and also week 8 would’ve taken me out.

But if not for that, I’d be doing really great in this contest.

My team is averaging a solid 171.2 ppw and hasn't been less than 30 points over the cut line...except for Week 4, of course.

I told you to sign up for the Super Mega Platinum Plan so you could rebuy a second time, but you didn’t listen to me.

 

[apalmer]

Just checked the weekly performance of my zombie team that was eliminated in week 2, and I’d still be alive now….except for getting eliminated in week 7. Oh, and also week 8 would’ve taken me out.

But if not for that, I’d be doing really great in this contest.

My team is averaging a solid 171.2 ppw and hasn't been less than 30 points over the cut line...except for Week 4, of course.

I told you to sign up for the Super Mega Platinum Plan so you could rebuy a second time, but you didn’t listen to me.

 

[TheWinz]

Week 9 kicking off with BAL at MIA. Ownership numbers for likely active players:

610 - PK Tyler Loop
217 - QB Tua Tagovailoa
211 - RB Keaton Mitchell
160 - RB Derrick Henry
138 - TD Miami Dolphins
115 - WR DeAndre Hopkins
103 - WR Jaylen Waddle
83 - TD Baltimore Ravens
67 - QB Lamar Jackson
64 - WR Malik Washington
62 - WR Zay Flowers
59 - TE Isaiah Likely
47 - WR Rashod Bateman
45 - TE Mark Andrews
31 - WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
10 - RB Jaylen Wright
9 - RB De'Von Achane
0 - QB Zach Wilson - became extinct week 8

With 2339 left and trimming down to 1638, the cut line should still be at 0 after the game. I'm one of 39 with the Loop/Henry combo.

 

[dbc925]

The only thing I have going for me is the Dolphins D. As a Steelers fan, I do my best to draft from only 31 teams. Ravens? Nevermore.

 

[Birdie048]

Week 9 kicking off with BAL at MIA. Ownership numbers for likely active players:

610 - PK Tyler Loop
217 - QB Tua Tagovailoa
211 - RB Keaton Mitchell
160 - RB Derrick Henry
138 - TD Miami Dolphins
115 - WR DeAndre Hopkins
103 - WR Jaylen Waddle
83 - TD Baltimore Ravens
67 - QB Lamar Jackson
64 - WR Malik Washington
62 - WR Zay Flowers
59 - TE Isaiah Likely
47 - WR Rashod Bateman
45 - TE Mark Andrews
31 - WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
10 - RB Jaylen Wright
9 - RB De'Von Achane
0 - QB Zach Wilson - became extinct week 8

With 2339 left and trimming down to 1638, the cut line should still be at 0 after the game. I'm one of 39 with the Loop/Henry combo.

I thought for sure Keaton Mitchell ownership was lower than this... about 10% of remaining survivors?
I had Malik Washington loaded up until last iteration but we will see if that works out.

 

[TheWinz]

Week 9 kicking off with BAL at MIA. Ownership numbers for likely active players:

610 - PK Tyler Loop
217 - QB Tua Tagovailoa
211 - RB Keaton Mitchell
160 - RB Derrick Henry
138 - TD Miami Dolphins
115 - WR DeAndre Hopkins
103 - WR Jaylen Waddle
83 - TD Baltimore Ravens
67 - QB Lamar Jackson
64 - WR Malik Washington
62 - WR Zay Flowers
59 - TE Isaiah Likely
47 - WR Rashod Bateman
45 - TE Mark Andrews
31 - WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
10 - RB Jaylen Wright
9 - RB De'Von Achane
0 - QB Zach Wilson - became extinct week 8

With 2339 left and trimming down to 1638, the cut line should still be at 0 after the game. I'm one of 39 with the Loop/Henry combo.

I thought for sure Keaton Mitchell ownership was lower than this... about 10% of remaining survivors?
I had Malik Washington loaded up until last iteration but we will see if that works out.

Keaton has 6.1 total points and a 26.61% survival rate vs the 21.07% average. You can do this when you are only $4.
Malik hasn't done much so far, but he did just find the EZ and recorded his first double-digit score. He has some promise.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I like google AI for satisfying idle curiousity. King Henry's prop bets...

Derrick Henry's prop bets for Week 9 include over 89.5 rushing yards and a strong chance to score an anytime touchdown, with odds around -235. Additionally, a bet on him to score 2 or more touchdowns is valued at +225, reflecting his potential against the Dolphins' weak rushing defense.

I'll not comment on anticipated outcomes to avoid the j word.

 

[TheWinz]

I like google AI for satisfying idle curiousity. King Henry's prop bets...

Derrick Henry's prop bets for Week 9 include over 89.5 rushing yards and a strong chance to score an anytime touchdown, with odds around -235. Additionally, a bet on him to score 2 or more touchdowns is valued at +225, reflecting his potential against the Dolphins' weak rushing defense.

I'll not comment on anticipated outcomes to avoid the j word.

There's no such thing as a j. King Henry for 100/2

 

[Puppies]

Wow, another Mark Andrews sighting

I'm off to a good start in week 9, which is a really good thing because I have 2 other TEs, Dallas Geodert and Harold Fannin both on bye.

My only active TEs this week are Mark Andrews and Pat Freiermuth.

 

[stubby]

Welcome back , Lamar....Dak held the fort down while you were gone, but we'd appreciate you staying healthy.

 

[TheWinz]

A middling 12.6 from Henry and a sad 4 from Loop. Let's go Geno!

 

[H8fulHuck]

Travis Hunter might land on IR after finally breaking out? I just died a little on the inside

 

[TheWinz]

Travis Hunter might land on IR after finally breaking out? I just died a little on the inside

It's not a maybe anymore - Travis Hunter was put on IR

 

[dbc925]

I’m two point over the cut thanks to the lousy Miami D. My D averages 7ppw so maybe I get ATL or KC to put up some points…