2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[Doug Drinen]

Some stats

Willie Parker $23 11.6 99.8 | 4Did those other four people have Rex Grossman and Chris Redman as their QB's?

Four isn't the number of people eliminated. Four is the relative elimination percentage for Parker owners.3 of 1402 Willie owners are gone.

650 out of 12650 total owners are gone.

[(Willie owner elimination rate) divided by (overall elimination rate)] is about .04.

 

[Das Boot]

Here are the three Willie Parker entries that were eliminated:

#1 (Parker and Romo)

#2 (Parker and McNabb)

#3

Dude had enough QBs though. I personally think Leinart was his downfall.Entry 110339

This entry is NOT still alive.

------------------------------------

Donovan McNabb $16 36.35

Aaron Rodgers $15 24.40

Eli Manning $15 15.70

Matt Leinart $14 0.00

Jon Kitna $14 24.10

Jay Cutler $14 27.85

David Garrard $14 14.95

Philip Rivers $13 28.75

Matt Schaub $13 20.50

Vince Young $12 9.90

JaMarcus Russell $12 21.70

Jake Delhomme $12 18.35

Willie Parker $23 31.80

Kevin Smith $23 16.00

Ted Ginn $13 3.90

Isaac Bruce $10 0.00

Drew Bennett $6 1.40

Robert Meachem $6 0.00

Mario Manningham $2 0.00

Michael Gaines $1 4.10

Sebastian Janikowski $1 2.00

Detroit Lions $1 1.00

------------------------------------

TOTAL 96.55

CUTOFF 112.85

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

112.85

Look who's tied for 12,000th

Time to double check those stats! We can't have the ringmaster shifting things by 0.10 to squeak by!

Please find .05 for me to deduct so I can put myself out of my misery. As Yudkin says, I am a dead man walking. I knew there was a reason why I never entered this thing before. Fortunately for me, this contest serves as such a great playground of interesting probability concepts that I'll have as much fun out of it as in it.

Doug, as a Brady owner in my money league, I feel your pain.Suggestion for "interesting probability concepts" for you to look at would be a rolling handicapping of entrants based on YTD scoring (after, say, week3). You could of course go multi-variate with forward schedules, etc. etc. but I'm just speaking to prior performance as an indicator of future results.

A rolling handicap would create juicy new opportunities for smack talk.

Admittedly a selfish request but if this stuff is housed in a database I'd love to see some rolling metrics going forward...

 

[Idiot Boxer]

Wooohooo

8th!

8. Entry 107808 214.15

 

[Verbal Kint]

Here are the three Willie Parker entries that were eliminated:

#2 (Parker and McNabb)

Note to self: avoid the 12 QBBC strategy next year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here are the three Willie Parker entries that were eliminated:

#2 (Parker and McNabb)

Note to self: avoid the 12 QBBC strategy next year.

Ah yes, the infamous QB squeeze. Certainly not Dodds' finest hour.

 

[Ned]

Here are the three Willie Parker entries that were eliminated:

#1 (Parker and Romo)

#2 (Parker and McNabb)

#3

12 QB's in #2? Obviously someone did not understand how this worksDonovan McNabb $16 36.35

Aaron Rodgers $15 24.40

Eli Manning $15 15.70

Matt Leinart $14 0.00

Jon Kitna $14 24.10

Jay Cutler $14 27.85

David Garrard $14 14.95

Philip Rivers $13 28.75

Matt Schaub $13 20.50

Vince Young $12 9.90

JaMarcus Russell $12 21.70

Jake Delhomme $12 18.35

Willie Parker $23 31.80

Kevin Smith $23 16.00

Ted Ginn $13 3.90

Isaac Bruce $10 0.00

Drew Bennett $6 1.40

Robert Meachem $6 0.00

Mario Manningham $2 0.00

Michael Gaines $1 4.10

Sebastian Janikowski $1 2.00

Detroit Lions $1 1.00

 

[eric rymer]

Looks like I squeeked in.

Entry 101741

This entry is still alive.

1

------------------------------------

Jake Delhomme $12 18.35

Jason Campbell $11 12.65

Kurt Warner $5 15.45

Marshawn Lynch $40 16.90

Clinton Portis $33 8.40

Deuce McAllister $9 0.00

Ladell Betts $6 1.60

Ray Rice $4 9.80

Steve Slaton $1 6.40

Marques Colston $30 5.60

Brandon Marshall $23 0.00

Jerricho Cotchery $23 17.00

Derrick Mason $12 8.40

Muhsin Muhammad $5 11.60

Amani Toomer $5 3.20

Zach Miller $15 9.40

Ben Utecht $5 4.00

Neil Rackers $3 13.00

Mike Nugent $1 2.00

Olindo Mare $1 6.00

Philadelphia Eagles $3 4.00

Tennessee Titans $3 13.00

------------------------------------

TOTAL 125.85

CUTOFF 112.85

 

[Yankee23Fan]

Woo-hoo: 11,592nd place. I'm a monster.

 

[ctriopelle]

112.85

Look who's tied for 12,000th

Time to double check those stats! We can't have the ringmaster shifting things by 0.10 to squeak by!

Please find .05 for me to deduct so I can put myself out of my misery. As Yudkin says, I am a dead man walking. I knew there was a reason why I never entered this thing before. Fortunately for me, this contest serves as such a great playground of interesting probability concepts that I'll have as much fun out of it as in it.

C'mon Doug! I think it's cool that you finally entered the contest! How can a certified stats geek manage to pass this up in year's prior? Picking a properly deep team, while minimizing bye effects, all while attempting to maximize your finals score would seem the type of thing that anyone with a stats background and the proper tools at his disposal would get off on.I'm surprised you haven't yet published any facts on the typical makeup of finals teams from last year, or how close the average finalist makes the cut by in their low week. It would also be cool to see the bye week distributions of the finalists, to show how important (or unimportant) it is to get them out of the way early, as well as whether or not one can survive without spreading byes out. I'm also curious if you have any methods of attempting to predict the cut score before the final data is available, seeing as this is a perfect application of probability concepts...at least from my completely untrained layman's perspective.

A few years ago the entire contest's roster was available in excel format for all to examine and dissect. It was a bear to properly organize a spreadsheet that massive, but once it was done I had a blast looking at cool tidbits like you show each week. Is there any way the general group could have access again, or is that something that FBG needs to keep as internal data?

 

[PatrickT]

I thought I had a really, really good week. I'm 3,996th.



Oh well, it's a marathon, not a sprint.

 

[perry147]

Jay Cutler	QB	DEN	27.85Kurt Warner	QB	ARI	15.85Joseph Addai	RB	IND	5.20Thomas Jones	RB	NYJ	17.80Maurice Morris	RB	SEA	3.10Steve Slaton	RB	HOU	6.40Michael Turner	RB	ATL	35.10Miles Austin	WR	DAL	0.00Mark Bradley	WR	CHI	0.00Marques Colston	WR	NO	5.60Devery Henderson	WR	NO	15.40Brandon Marshall	WR	DEN	0.00Terrell Owens	WR	DAL	19.70David Patten	WR	NO	10.90Chris Baker	TE	NYJ	6.40Heath Miller	TE	PIT	7.10Jason Hanson	K	DET	3.00Matt Prater	K	DEN	13.00Arizona Defense	DEF	ARI	14.00Detroit Defense	DEF	DET	1.00Miami Defense	DEF	MIA	5.00Total			   167.25

 

[BroadwayG]

I'm a over Nugent.

 

[saintfool]

142 pts for the week. not bad considering two of my WRs were suspended.

 

[Wildman]

197.5 - not bad...players I have that I can remember off-hand who counted towards a decent week:

Cutler, Romo, Turner, Westbrook, Forte, Owens, DeSean Jackson, Robert Royal, Titans Defense...

 

[Jayrod]

202

Last year the bye weeks killed me. Let's hope this year it's different.

Swamp

QB - Philip Rivers - 13

QB - Matt Schaub - 13

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

RB - Clinton Portis - 33

RB - LenDale White - 23

RB - LaMont Jordan - 5

RB - Michael Bush - 3

RB - Jacob Hester - 2

RB - Steve Slaton - 1

WR - Larry Fitzgerald - 35

WR - Torry Holt - 32

WR - Calvin Johnson - 25

WR - Jabar Gaffney - 7

WR - Antwaan Randle El - 4

WR - James Hardy - 4

WR - Craig Davis - 1

TE - Kellen Winslow Jr - 28

TE - Anthony Fasano - 3

PK - Nick Folk - 5

PK - Shayne Graham - 4

TD - Buffalo Bills - 3

TD - Detroit Lions - 1

Total value: 250

If Holt had 32, I wouldn't be 0-1.

Those are the player prices, not their scores....

"202"

 

[QuizGuy66]

112.85

Look who's tied for 12,000th

Now THAT takes skill Turk Betcha can't do it two weeks in a row though

Of course I was in the mid-11000s myself so I can't really tempt fate much myself

-QG

 

[bigfeet_88]

17. Entry 107618 - 210.45

I probably peaked too soon.

I had the FWP/Turner combo, but my real stars were:

Chad Pennington $9 23.55

Anthony Fasano $3 26.40

Go Miami?

 

[Bankerguy]

I am quite content scoring 166 points with Marshall out and LT2 having an off day.

 

[gregjcross]

THis is an RB TOP HEAVY team that i did not submit for real (too risky) but will be tracking throughout the season. Week 1, not so pretty with LT2 failing to be a stud. I suppose it could be even heavier on RBs -- but Winslow got added for good measure

Brodie Croyle QB KC 4.40

Matt Ryan QB ATL 14.05

Kurt Warner QB ARI 15.85

Steven Jackson RB STL 8.90

Adrian Peterson RB MIN 17.90

LaDainian Tomlinson RB SD 12.70

Lorenzo Booker RB PHI 0.90

Steve Breaston WR ARI 8.40

Ted Ginn WR MIA 3.90

Devery Henderson WR NO 15.40

Jason Hill WR SF 0.00

DeSean Jackson WR PHI 16.60

Maurice Stovall WR TB 0.00

Courtney Taylor WR SEA 3.90

Amani Toomer WR NYG 3.20

Steve Smith WR NYG 3.50

Dustin Keller TE NYJ 0.00

Kellen Winslow TE CLE 18.20

Joe Nedney K SF 9.00

Mike Nugent K NYJ 2.00

Atlanta Defense DEF ATL 5.00

San Francisco Defense DEF SF 3.00

Total 127.95

 

[hoochiemama]

167. Right in the middle of the pack. only 2500 more people to go....

 

[Yenrub]

Still alive with 181.50 week 1 points

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

137.55 with no Smith or Marshall. I'll take it. Brees and Forte were the only guys who really did anything.

I'm not a fan of my team. I forgot to update it late 9/1 so I don't have Rice, Slaton, Warner, etc.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

137.55 with no Smith or Marshall. I'll take it. Brees and Forte were the only guys who really did anything.I'm not a fan of my team. I forgot to update it late 9/1 so I don't have Rice, Slaton, Warner, etc.

It's been a rough year so far for you Rex; how you holdin up?

 

[Lash]

think i asked this last year but can NEXT year have the bye weeks out beside the player names on the entry form?

i know not much of a pain but still looking to another webpage backnforth to get byes was a lil time consuming especially considering my 113 different entries

 

[tomarken]

think i asked this last year but can NEXT year have the bye weeks out beside the player names on the entry form?i know not much of a pain but still looking to another webpage backnforth to get byes was a lil time consuming especially considering my 113 different entries

No. That's how we weed out the dummies who forget to check the byes. Not displaying them is actually an advantage for those of us who do.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Entry 101696This entry is still alive.------------------------------------TOTAL 117.75 CUTOFF 112.85

Zach Miller's garbage time keeps me alive. Survive and advance, survive and advance....

 

[Doug Drinen]

Suggestion for "interesting probability concepts" for you to look at would be a rolling handicapping of entrants based on YTD scoring (after, say, week3). You could of course go multi-variate with forward schedules, etc. etc. but I'm just speaking to prior performance as an indicator of future results.A rolling handicap would create juicy new opportunities for smack talk.Admittedly a selfish request but if this stuff is housed in a database I'd love to see some rolling metrics going forward...

This will happen. Last year around week 13 or so, I built some programs that grab the FBG weekly projections and the FBG rest-of-season projections, and use them to estimate overall team strengths. I'll break those out later this week or next.

 

[Parmcat]

4642. Entry 111597 155.35

Whoo hoo I guess.....

Outlasted last year!!!!!

 

[perry147]

think i asked this last year but can NEXT year have the bye weeks out beside the player names on the entry form?i know not much of a pain but still looking to another webpage backnforth to get byes was a lil time consuming especially considering my 113 different entries

No. That's how we weed out the dummies who forget to check the byes. Not displaying them is actually an advantage for those of us who do.

It only takes a few minutes to check bye weeks, but those who are too lazy to do it deserve to be eliminated.

 

[allaces10]

17. Entry 107618 - 210.45

I probably peaked too soon.

I had the FWP/Turner combo, but my real stars were:

Chad Pennington $9 23.55

Anthony Fasano $3 26.40

Go Miami?

Looks like they counted both your te's for some reason...error in the system?

 

[David Yudkin]

17. Entry 107618 - 210.45

I probably peaked too soon.

I had the FWP/Turner combo, but my real stars were:

Chad Pennington $9 23.55

Anthony Fasano $3 26.40

Go Miami?

Looks like they counted both your te's for some reason...error in the system?

Second TE used in FLEX spot. FLEX will be highest scoring remaining RB/WR/TE.

 

[allaces10]

Ah..ok..sorry....shouldn't have posted without checking the rules first.

 

[Otis]

137.55 with no Smith or Marshall.

151 here with Smith and Marshall sitting...That said, I'm in trouble with Gore and Bush on byes the same week. That'll be my biggest hurdle if I make it that long...

This entry is still alive. 1 ------------------------------------Aaron Rodgers $15 24.40 David Garrard $14 14.95 Frank Gore $49 23.10 Reggie Bush $33 26.30 Ricky Williams $8 5.90 Ray Rice $4 9.80 Lorenzo Booker $2 0.90 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 T.J. Duckett $1 0.00 Anquan Boldin $26 16.20 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 Jerricho Cotchery $23 17.00 Steve Smith $23 0.00 Javon Walker $12 0.00 Muhsin Muhammad $5 11.60 Mark Bradley $1 0.00 Maurice Stovall $1 0.00 Desmond Clark $3 7.60 Dustin Keller $2 0.00 Joe Nedney $1 9.00 New York Jets $2 6.00 San Francisco 49ers $1 3.00 ------------------------------------TOTAL 151.00 CUTOFF 112.85

I'm rolling with Chase Stuart's QBBC at QB.... so far, so good...

 

[BR33ZE]

137.55 with no Smith or Marshall.

151 here with Smith and Marshall sitting...That said, I'm in trouble with Gore and Bush on byes the same week. That'll be my biggest hurdle if I make it that long...

This entry is still alive.

1

------------------------------------

Aaron Rodgers $15 24.40

David Garrard $14 14.95

Frank Gore $49 23.10

Reggie Bush $33 26.30

Ricky Williams $8 5.90

Ray Rice $4 9.80

Lorenzo Booker $2 0.90

Steve Slaton $1 6.40

T.J. Duckett $1 0.00

Anquan Boldin $26 16.20

Brandon Marshall $23 0.00

Jerricho Cotchery $23 17.00

Steve Smith $23 0.00

Javon Walker $12 0.00

Muhsin Muhammad $5 11.60

Mark Bradley $1 0.00

Maurice Stovall $1 0.00

Desmond Clark $3 7.60

Dustin Keller $2 0.00

Joe Nedney $1 9.00

New York Jets $2 6.00

San Francisco 49ers $1 3.00

------------------------------------

TOTAL 151.00

CUTOFF 112.85

I'm rolling with Chase Stuart's QBBC at QB.... so far, so good...

This is never a good idea.

 

[tomarken]

137.55 with no Smith or Marshall.

151 here with Smith and Marshall sitting...That said, I'm in trouble with Gore and Bush on byes the same week. That'll be my biggest hurdle if I make it that long...

This entry is still alive.

1

------------------------------------

Aaron Rodgers $15 24.40

David Garrard $14 14.95

Frank Gore $49 23.10

Reggie Bush $33 26.30

Ricky Williams $8 5.90

Ray Rice $4 9.80

Lorenzo Booker $2 0.90

Steve Slaton $1 6.40

T.J. Duckett $1 0.00

Anquan Boldin $26 16.20

Brandon Marshall $23 0.00

Jerricho Cotchery $23 17.00

Steve Smith $23 0.00

Javon Walker $12 0.00

Muhsin Muhammad $5 11.60

Mark Bradley $1 0.00

Maurice Stovall $1 0.00

Desmond Clark $3 7.60

Dustin Keller $2 0.00

Joe Nedney $1 9.00

New York Jets $2 6.00

San Francisco 49ers $1 3.00

------------------------------------

TOTAL 151.00

CUTOFF 112.85

I'm rolling with Chase Stuart's QBBC at QB.... so far, so good...

This is never a good idea.

I've had good success with it in other leagues. In best-ball it's even better because you don't even have to guess which one to start each week.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Suggestion for "interesting probability concepts" for you to look at would be a rolling handicapping of entrants based on YTD scoring (after, say, week3). You could of course go multi-variate with forward schedules, etc. etc. but I'm just speaking to prior performance as an indicator of future results.A rolling handicap would create juicy new opportunities for smack talk.Admittedly a selfish request but if this stuff is housed in a database I'd love to see some rolling metrics going forward...

This will happen. Last year around week 13 or so, I built some programs that grab the FBG weekly projections and the FBG rest-of-season projections, and use them to estimate overall team strengths. I'll break those out later this week or next.

From the blatently obvious department, Drinen RULES.

 

[Doug Drinen]

OK, here is a first cut at some power rankings.

Be sure to read the methodology. This is not an overly sophisticated system. It doesn't properly penalize a team that has a bunch of week 10 byes, for instance. But it does take into account the current state of affairs enough to know that owners of Brady, Burleson, Colston, et al aren't as strong right now as they looked a week ago.

 

[tomarken]

#281. I'll take it.

 

[ctriopelle]

I'll take #8 !

 

[tomarken]

I'll take #8 !

Nice!That team looks like it's going to be pretty vulnerable during week 8-10 though...

 

[ctriopelle]

I feel I have decent backups and no more than 2 off in a position (WR) in each of those weeks. Week 10 is thinner than I'd like, which is partly how Cutler ended up on my team. Stud TE theory tends to make up for bad weeks to as long as the TE works out the way he should that week. We'll see, I think that as long as the injury bug leaves me alone I like my chances.

 

[gpalmer]

174 in power rankings... I'll take it.

I'm a little worried about Nugent, but I think a lot of teams have him.

 

[LHUCKS]

My squad is stacked....again.

 

[[icon]]

My squad is stacked....again.

:(Link?

 

[LHUCKS]

My squad is stacked....again.

:(Link?

Deal with it...Entry number 100139.QB - Tony Romo - 23QB - Donovan McNabb - 16RB - Marshawn Lynch - 40RB - Clinton Portis - 33RB - Chris Johnson - 14RB - Ricky Williams - 8RB - Ray Rice - 4RB - Steve Slaton - 1WR - Santonio Holmes - 24WR - Brandon Marshall - 23WR - Ted Ginn - 13WR - Vincent Jackson - 11WR - Kevin Walter - 6WR - Deion Branch - 6WR - Antwaan Randle El - 4WR - Courtney Taylor - 3TE - John Carlson - 4TE - Anthony Fasano - 3PK - John Kasay - 2PK - Shaun Suisham - 1TD - Minnesota Vikings - 8TD - Arizona Cardinals - 3

 

[[icon]]

My squad is stacked....again.

Link?

Deal with it...Entry number 100139.QB - Tony Romo - 23QB - Donovan McNabb - 16RB - Marshawn Lynch - 40RB - Clinton Portis - 33RB - Chris Johnson - 14RB - Ricky Williams - 8RB - Ray Rice - 4RB - Steve Slaton - 1WR - Santonio Holmes - 24WR - Brandon Marshall - 23WR - Ted Ginn - 13WR - Vincent Jackson - 11WR - Kevin Walter - 6WR - Deion Branch - 6WR - Antwaan Randle El - 4WR - Courtney Taylor - 3TE - John Carlson - 4TE - Anthony Fasano - 3PK - John Kasay - 2PK - Shaun Suisham - 1TD - Minnesota Vikings - 8TD - Arizona Cardinals - 3

Not bad... only 600-650 slots below mine in the power rankings :(

 

[LHUCKS]

Not bad... only 600-650 slots below mine in the power rankings

Erroneous

 

[[icon]]

Not bad... only 600-650 slots below mine in the power rankings

Erroneous

As usual you are woefully out of touch with reality. Let me go ahead and clue you in on fact. 547. Entry 100487 2865 588 673 1025 229 173 175 18.05 (9103) <----- Me---"about 600-650 teams still rated higher than you"---1191. Entry 100139 2818 560 726 860 261 188 222 17.64 (8621) <----- YouYou are 644 slots behind me in the power rankings. how was it you said: "Deal with it"?

 

[LHUCKS]

Not bad... only 600-650 slots below mine in the power rankings

Erroneous

As usual you are woefully out of touch with reality. Let me go ahead and clue you in on fact. 547. Entry 100487 2865 588 673 1025 229 173 175 18.05 (9103) <----- Me---"about 600-650 teams still rated higher than you"---1191. Entry 100139 2818 560 726 860 261 188 222 17.64 (8621) <----- YouYou are 644 slots behind me in the power rankings.

I don't think you understand...the Power Rankings are erroneous...not your ability to regurgitate them.