2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (4 Viewers)

[Dirty Weasel]

QB - Jay Cutler 41.10

RB - Clinton Portis 22.90

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew 12.00

Flex - Leon Washington 7.00

WR - Brandon Marshall 40.60

WR - Reggie Williams 7.60

WR - Steve Breaston 3.20

TE - Tony Gonzalez 17.40

PK - Jason Hanson 17.00

TD - N.Y. Jets Defense 3.00

Total 171.80

I think the cut is going to be around 130-135. Bring on week 3...

 

[Sinn Fein]

I am going to be safe this week - but about 87% of my points came from 4 players - Cutler, Boldin, Marshall, and Longwell - does not bode well for long-term success

 

[ctriopelle]

Lots of big numbers posted already. Betting that the predicted number from last week isn't going to be very accurate. As a guess from what has posted I wouldn't be surprised if the cut is 135-140. Huge scores already from popular picks like Warner and Marshall should be driving things up considerably.

Kinda hoping that a lot of LT owners get stung pretty badly this week, it is a prime opportunity for the help. However, I think the teams with both Brady and LT (currently 48 survive) may be pretty much extinct with the LT performance this week.

 

[Big Score]

Jay Cutler QB = 41.10

Matt Forte RB = 12.80

Clinton Portis RB = 22.90

Chris Chambers WR = 24.30

Donald Driver WR = 18.20

Justin Gage WR = 16.90

Calvin Johnson WR = 30.90

Greg Olsen TE = 3.70

Joe Nedney K = 17.00

Tennessee Defense DEF = 11.00

Current Total = 198.80

Yet to play...

Santonio Holmes WR = ?

Heath Miller TE = ?

Dallas Defense DEF = ?

 

[smackdaddies]

lots of players still to go

Dallas Phili should pump up the average too.

 

[perry147]

Lots of big numbers posted already. Betting that the predicted number from last week isn't going to be very accurate. As a guess from what has posted I wouldn't be surprised if the cut is 135-140. Huge scores already from popular picks like Warner and Marshall should be driving things up considerably.

Kinda hoping that a lot of LT owners get stung pretty badly this week, it is a prime opportunity for the help. However, I think the teams with both Brady and LT (currently 48 survive) may be pretty much extinct with the LT performance this week.

But I don't think the cut will be 135-140.

 

[meeka]

174 right now.

Parker will be my rb #2 so I have to add his score to this and I have Folk, Akers -6, and DeSean -8.1 to go.

Not great rb play this week, but S. Moss, Wayne and Marshall and Warner had great weeks.

 

[oddball]

Lots of big numbers posted already. Betting that the predicted number from last week isn't going to be very accurate. As a guess from what has posted I wouldn't be surprised if the cut is 135-140. Huge scores already from popular picks like Warner and Marshall should be driving things up considerably.

Kinda hoping that a lot of LT owners get stung pretty badly this week, it is a prime opportunity for the help. However, I think the teams with both Brady and LT (currently 48 survive) may be pretty much extinct with the LT performance this week.

But I don't think the cut will be 135-140.

What do you think it will be? :130.35:

 

[perry147]

Lots of big numbers posted already. Betting that the predicted number from last week isn't going to be very accurate. As a guess from what has posted I wouldn't be surprised if the cut is 135-140. Huge scores already from popular picks like Warner and Marshall should be driving things up considerably.

Kinda hoping that a lot of LT owners get stung pretty badly this week, it is a prime opportunity for the help. However, I think the teams with both Brady and LT (currently 48 survive) may be pretty much extinct with the LT performance this week.

But I don't think the cut will be 135-140.

What do you think it will be? :130.35:

I think It will be 120.

 

[oddball]

Lots of big numbers posted already. Betting that the predicted number from last week isn't going to be very accurate. As a guess from what has posted I wouldn't be surprised if the cut is 135-140. Huge scores already from popular picks like Warner and Marshall should be driving things up considerably.

Kinda hoping that a lot of LT owners get stung pretty badly this week, it is a prime opportunity for the help. However, I think the teams with both Brady and LT (currently 48 survive) may be pretty much extinct with the LT performance this week.

But I don't think the cut will be 135-140.

What do you think it will be? :130.35:

I think It will be 120.

Here's hoping your right!

 

[MSULions]

166.20 with only one RB and MBIII to go tomorrow night

 

[Northbound Train]

QB - Jay Cutler 41.10 RB - Clinton Portis 22.90 RB - Maurice Jones-Drew 12.00 Flex - Leon Washington 7.00 WR - Brandon Marshall 40.60WR - Reggie Williams 7.60 WR - Steve Breaston 3.20 TE - Tony Gonzalez 17.40 PK - Jason Hanson 17.00 TD - N.Y. Jets Defense 3.00 Total 171.80I think the cut is going to be around 130-135. Bring on week 3...

Where do you see current stats for this week???

 

[Big Score]

QB - Jay Cutler 41.10

RB - Clinton Portis 22.90

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew 12.00

Flex - Leon Washington 7.00

WR - Brandon Marshall 40.60

WR - Reggie Williams 7.60

WR - Steve Breaston 3.20

TE - Tony Gonzalez 17.40

PK - Jason Hanson 17.00

TD - N.Y. Jets Defense 3.00

Total 171.80

I think the cut is going to be around 130-135. Bring on week 3...

Where do you see current stats for this week???

http://thefantasystar.com/

 

[Toomuchnv]

667 teams with the Marshall/S.Smith combo at WR....My team being one of them....I am guessing with the Marshall blow up today all 667 make it past week 2?

 

[Erin Go Bragh]

Kurt Warner QB ARI 36.05

Chris Johnson RB TEN 13.10

Darren McFadden RB OAK 23.80

Michael Turner RB ATL 5.30

Calvin Johnson WR DET 30.90

Brandon Marshall WR DEN 40.60

Robert Meachem WR NO 8.90

Alge Crumpler TE TEN 4.60

Rian Lindell K BUF 10.00

Carolina Defense DEF CAR 5.00

Total 178.25

With DeSean Jackson WR PHI (-5.30) still to go.

Waiting on Steve Smith and Jerry Porter to make their season debuts.

 

[ctriopelle]

667 teams with the Marshall/S.Smith combo at WR....My team being one of them....I am guessing with the Marshall blow up today all 667 make it past week 2?

Not all, but they will definitely have a higher % advance rate than the general population. 85% move on this week, I'd guess with Marshall's score your group in question advances at a rate closer to 90-95% 50 of your 667 have LT on their teams and 6 have Brady (one has both). Those 55 teams are going to need a lot of help to move on this week, although even some of them will probably get through.

 

[perry147]

A few interesting stats.

Brady Owners

Total teams with these players 362

Still Alive 297

Eliminated in week 1 65

LT owners (5.00 points this week)

Total teams with these players 821

Still Alive 737

Eliminated in week 1 84

Michael Turner Owners (5.3 points this week)

Total teams with these players 1661

Still Alive 1656

Eliminated in week 1 5

Colston Owners

Total teams with these players 2383

Still Alive 2245

Eliminated in week 1 138

Ricky Williams Owners(3.40 points this week)

Total teams with these players 6227

Still Alive 5992

Eliminated in week 1 235

 

[ctriopelle]

Lots of big numbers posted already. Betting that the predicted number from last week isn't going to be very accurate. As a guess from what has posted I wouldn't be surprised if the cut is 135-140. Huge scores already from popular picks like Warner and Marshall should be driving things up considerably.

Kinda hoping that a lot of LT owners get stung pretty badly this week, it is a prime opportunity for the help. However, I think the teams with both Brady and LT (currently 48 survive) may be pretty much extinct with the LT performance this week.

But I don't think the cut will be 135-140.

you may be right on that, I posted that number based on the scores being thrown out in this thread. Looking at my league scoring (which is set up nearly identical to the contest), the general scoring is down slightly at this point, although there are a few teams with big numbers. Maybe what this means is that the top scores are in fact higher, but the general scores aren't inflated. With the way we are set up with shared players though, and some very popular players having exceptionally good games, I would be very surprised if the bottom 15% number from last week goes down, even with the byes this week.I'm working with Organized Chaos to put some math behind the cut prediction, hopefully we will have a semi-live prediction for next week.

 

[The Kerminator]

A few interesting stats.Brady OwnersTotal teams with these players 362Still Alive 297Eliminated in week 1 65LT owners (5.00 points this week)Total teams with these players 821Still Alive 737Eliminated in week 1 84Michael Turner Owners (5.3 points this week)Total teams with these players 1661Still Alive 1656Eliminated in week 1 5Colston Owners Total teams with these players 2383 Still Alive 2245 Eliminated in week 1 138Ricky Williams Owners(3.40 points this week)Total teams with these players 6227Still Alive 5992Eliminated in week 1 235

In the cases of Brady, LT, Turner and Colston I can see a low score this week hurting them. Doubttful for Ricky though. Most owners have him as their RB4 at best IMO.

 

[Northbound Train]

QB - Jay Cutler 41.10

RB - Clinton Portis 22.90

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew 12.00

Flex - Leon Washington 7.00

WR - Brandon Marshall 40.60

WR - Reggie Williams 7.60

WR - Steve Breaston 3.20

TE - Tony Gonzalez 17.40

PK - Jason Hanson 17.00

TD - N.Y. Jets Defense 3.00

Total 171.80

I think the cut is going to be around 130-135. Bring on week 3...

Where do you see current stats for this week???

http://thefantasystar.com/

Thanks....186.3 for me

 

[meeka]

QB - Jay Cutler 41.10

RB - Clinton Portis 22.90

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew 12.00

Flex - Leon Washington 7.00

WR - Brandon Marshall 40.60

WR - Reggie Williams 7.60

WR - Steve Breaston 3.20

TE - Tony Gonzalez 17.40

PK - Jason Hanson 17.00

TD - N.Y. Jets Defense 3.00

Total 171.80

I think the cut is going to be around 130-135. Bring on week 3...

Where do you see current stats for this week???

http://thefantasystar.com/

Just entered my team. I meant to all week at work, but never got to it. This app rocks. Thanks OC!Oh and 184 so far...

 

[plapla]

Looks like I will need MBIII and Deseanjax to score me some points to make the cut.

 

[CrossEyed]

My fantasystar numbers for week 2 are identical to week 1. Seems to be a glitch.

ETA: Actually my week 2 numbers are correct, but my week 1 numbers have been replaced by week 2.

I'm at 167.85 with DeSean Jackson (-3.4) and Lorenzo Booker (-10.5) still to play.

 

[kevzilla]

Yeah, the same thing happened to me. Not a huge problem.

175.1 with LJ Smith -3.4

 

[chris1969]

My fantasystar numbers for week 2 are identical to week 1. Seems to be a glitch.

Yep same for me as well.194.5 with Jason Witten left

 

[nzranger]

173 with Witten to go. (Warner/Boldin/Marshall)

Can't wait till I get Smith next week..

ETA: If you click on the Wk1 heading it will fix the glitch

 

[Refbuz]

139.85 so far

Have a lot of players in tomorrow's game, so I should get a bump.

Romo (-36.05)

MBIII (-2.00)

T.O. (-3.40)

Deshaun (-3.00)

L.J. Smith (-3.80)

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

I dont know the scores of my players but its gotta be big

Cutler

Portis

McFadden

Parker

Boldin

Calvin Johnson

Marshall

Still have Desean Jackson to replace parker

Shockey

Prater

and 4 scub d's forget wich ones

 

[tomarken]

199.5 + (Westbrook - 8.10)

I think I'm good.

 

[Tecumseh]

My fantasystar numbers for week 2 are identical to week 1. Seems to be a glitch.

ETA: Actually my week 2 numbers are correct, but my week 1 numbers have been replaced by week 2.

I'm at 167.85 with DeSean Jackson (-3.4) and Lorenzo Booker (-10.5) still to play.

Had the same problem. Click on "W1" and it will self correct.BTW- 163.95 with Barber (-7.8) to play.

 

[Moe Green]

The postponing of the Baltimore/Houston game is gonna kill me this week. How is this going to be handled in the contest?

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

The postponing of the Baltimore/Houston game is gonna kill me this week. How is this going to be handled in the contest?

It is their bye weeks

 

[tomarken]

The postponing of the Baltimore/Houston game is gonna kill me this week. How is this going to be handled in the contest?

Same as if your guys got injured, I'd assume. No reason to handle it otherwise. Honestly, there aren't that many playmakers on Houston and Baltimore IMO. If you're relying on that many players from those two teams, you're probably doomed anyway.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

137.85 this week. I should be safe. I would guess the cutoff is about 118.

 

[CrossEyed]

My fantasystar numbers for week 2 are identical to week 1. Seems to be a glitch.

ETA: Actually my week 2 numbers are correct, but my week 1 numbers have been replaced by week 2.

I'm at 167.85 with DeSean Jackson (-3.4) and Lorenzo Booker (-10.5) still to play.

Had the same problem. Click on "W1" and it will self correct.BTW- 163.95 with Barber (-7.8) to play.

Good call.

 

[JMJ]

218.45

 

[jwinston2]

218.45

201.5 with Westbrook, McNabb and Jackson still left for my team.

 

[Aussie Cowboy]

201.60

 

[pizzatyme]

I'm likely dead. I have 112.45 with:

Desean Jackson -0

Philly D -0

to go.

I need Jackson to get 100 and 1

and Philly D to score.

Unlikely but possible.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Unofficial: if there were no MNF, the cut would be 110.95

 

[radiohead417]

170.40 + McNabb (-6.9). I wonder if this week could knock out a few Ray Rice/Steve Slaton owners.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

I'm likely dead. I have 112.45 withesean Jackson -0Philly D -0to go.I need Jackson to get 100 and 1and Philly D to score.Unlikely but possible.

You are fine.

 

[JMJ]

Unofficial: if there were no MNF, the cut would be 110.95

Wow?That low even with all these ridiculously high scores?

 

[RenegadeGM]

Unofficial: if there were no MNF, the cut would be 110.95

Wow?That low even with all these ridiculously high scores?

Still a very high number of entries.

 

[fasteddie_21]

120.05 w/ Barber/Jones still to go on MNF.

That early Bye of Balt/Hou really really hurt.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

That early Bye of Balt/Hou really really hurt.

It helps anyone who makes it past week 2.

 

[Organized Chaos]

Lots of big numbers posted already. Betting that the predicted number from last week isn't going to be very accurate. As a guess from what has posted I wouldn't be surprised if the cut is 135-140. Huge scores already from popular picks like Warner and Marshall should be driving things up considerably.

Kinda hoping that a lot of LT owners get stung pretty badly this week, it is a prime opportunity for the help. However, I think the teams with both Brady and LT (currently 48 survive) may be pretty much extinct with the LT performance this week.

But I don't think the cut will be 135-140.

you may be right on that, I posted that number based on the scores being thrown out in this thread. Looking at my league scoring (which is set up nearly identical to the contest), the general scoring is down slightly at this point, although there are a few teams with big numbers. Maybe what this means is that the top scores are in fact higher, but the general scores aren't inflated. With the way we are set up with shared players though, and some very popular players having exceptionally good games, I would be very surprised if the bottom 15% number from last week goes down, even with the byes this week.I'm working with Organized Chaos to put some math behind the cut prediction, hopefully we will have a semi-live prediction for next week.

With more and more teams entering, we should be able to make this happen!! I just have to clean up the script that figures all the entries scores each week.

My fantasystar numbers for week 2 are identical to week 1. Seems to be a glitch.

ETA: Actually my week 2 numbers are correct, but my week 1 numbers have been replaced by week 2.

I'm at 167.85 with DeSean Jackson (-3.4) and Lorenzo Booker (-10.5) still to play.

Had the same problem. Click on "W1" and it will self correct.BTW- 163.95 with Barber (-7.8) to play.

I was working on the scoring script and cleared all the saved scores. You can always click on the week header like mentioned to process your weekly scores if this happens again or you change your team or something.

 

[ctriopelle]

Unofficial: if there were no MNF, the cut would be 110.95

Wow?That low even with all these ridiculously high scores?

One thing about this MNF game is that there are quite a few high powered and fairly popular players going tonight. I'd expect the cut to jump a fair amount after the game. It's not uncommon in situations like this (especially when byes have roster spots registering zeros at this point) for the cut to jump 10-15 points.

 

[Road Warriors]

161.05 with

Romo (-36.05) and

DeSean ( -6.2)

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The low scores can partially be attributed to starting QBs being hurt (Brady, VY, Garcia), the late cancellation of the Ravens-Texans game, other injuries (Colston, etc.), low performing studs (LT etc.), and teams that played in terrible weather who happen to have a lot of high impact skill players, namely the Bengals game and the Sunday night game.