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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

Frank Costanza said:
This isnt directed at anyone in particular, but can we stop posting full rosters at this point? Same for posting your weekly score after the Turk releases the cut number for the week, posting your team's power ranking, or posting your unique players. Drinen has made all this information available to everyone and, chances are, each of us is the only person who cares about our team.
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166 points and counting Costanza lawyer!But if you want to talk strategy... 3 QBs on excellent offensive teams, 2 very good RB, 3 stud WR, and the secret ingredient *whispering*.... 4 defenses.
 
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Jay Cutler 24.90

Maurice Jones-Drew 24.60

Steve Slaton 20.40

Clinton Portis 15.70

Brandon Marshall 27.50

Steve Smith 11.00

Derrick Mason 8.20

Tony Gonzalez 9.50

Jason Hanson 12.00

Miami Defense 8.00

Total Points: 161.80

Still waiting on Leon Washington, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and N.Y. Jets Defense. Bring on week 4!

 
The Ref said:
4 teams with my top 5 ofWestyT JonesC Johnson 2S HolmesB MarshallBut we all have dfferent QB/TE/D/K more or less and very different backups and roster makeups.
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Only 3 other people took:MBIIILT2Cutler/Marshall combo2 of those 3 (plus me) also took Calvin Johnson to go w/ those 4 :football:
 
Boot said:
LHUCKS said:
***Official I picked up Slaton for a dolla holla*** :football:
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7163 teams picked Slaton, it would have been a competitive disadvantage not to take such an obvious player.He may well be the single most rostered player in the contest.
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He was/is--at the start of the contest, 56.6% had him, topping Warner's 51.4%. Currently Slaton's on 59.4%, Warner on 56.5%.
 
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The Ref said:
4 teams with my top 5 of

Westy -1.2 pts.

T Jones

C Johnson 2--8 pts.

S Holmes --6.2 pts.

B Marshall--27.5 pts.

But we all have dfferent QB/TE/D/K more or less and very different backups and roster makeups.
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And you're all sweating right now?
 
tomarken said:
ctriopelle said:
Based on the team sample at fantasy star, the SNF cut line is currently at 123...We'll see what the Turk has to say in the morning!
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Doug Drinen said:
Unofficial pre-MNF cutoff would be 123.55
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:football:
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Cha-Ching!That was impressive. Especially since there is an "adjustment factor" that I basically had to make up to hit the last 2 weeks, and I wasn't very confident in it! The Fantasy Star database actually scores quite a bit higher than the general contest for now, so I have to ratchet it down by a factor of about .9. I am also chopping our entries down every week, to kill the eliminated teams, and we will probably need to get a new group of teams in a few weeks.We locked the computation at the 425 valid entries on his site. Just over 500 were submitted, but they were invalid for one reason or another. Those of you that want to be part of the estimate in the future should double check your rosters to make sure you have exactly 22 players, that you picked the right guy (i.e the Steve Smiths, the Mannings, etc.), and that you add up to less than 250 (which is dependent on using the right guy!). Fixing/eliminating all the bad entries is what took us the longest to set things up. OC is trying to put on a valid team filter so that the next batch goes faster, but it will be kicking out live teams that are improperly submitted to him.
 
A self-aggrandizing study in bench strength....

Kyle Orton outperforms Warner and Romo

Slaton and Ricky Williams outperform Chris Johnson and Willie Parker (TJ tonight)

Harrison props up the squad absent Colston

Fasano and Royal outperform Olsen

171.7 plus T Jones minus 12.9

Yipee!

 
Alive and kickin...

David Garrard QB JAC 14.95 10.45 8.15Aaron Rodgers QB GB 24.40 36.90 21.50Lorenzo Booker RB PHI 0.90 0.00 2.60Reggie Bush RB NO 26.30 12.60 32.30T.J. Duckett RB SEA 0.00 6.30 19.90Frank Gore RB SF 23.10 18.40 24.20Ray Rice RB BAL 9.80 0.00 2.10Steve Slaton RB HOU 6.40 0.00 20.40Ricky Williams RB MIA 5.90 3.40 12.90Anquan Boldin WR ARI 16.20 38.00 11.50Mark Bradley WR CHI 0.00 0.00 0.00Jerricho Cotchery WR NYJ 17.00 3.00 0.00Brandon Marshall WR DEN 0.00 40.60 27.50Muhsin Muhammad WR CAR 11.60 10.90 5.50Steve Smith WR CAR 0.00 0.00 11.00Maurice Stovall WR TB 0.00 0.00 3.60Javon Walker WR OAK 0.00 0.00 3.80Desmond Clark TE CHI 7.60 5.10 3.80Dustin Keller TE NYJ 0.00 3.40 0.00Joe Nedney K SF 9.00 17.00 7.00N.Y. Jets Defense DEF NYJ 6.00 3.00 0.00San Francisco Defense DEF SF 3.00 13.00 8.00Total Points: 151.00 198.80 167.20Actual Cutoff: 112.85 132.60 Projected Cutoff: 123.00
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Great job OC & C with the Fantasy Star c/off and updates.

However you manually estimated the wk3 c/off is amazing.

These early week cuts include a bunch of teams that would not follow the contest enough to enter at Fantasy Star.

Therefore if the the official c/off is 85% for W3 you might want to use 90% or even higher.

 
PatrickT said:
OU#1 said:
How accurate is the Fantasy Star cutoff?119.70 with the Cotchery (-7.7) and Keller (-2.1) prayer... :goodposting:
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Pardon my ignorance, but what's the number in parentheses?
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Basically, for example, it means he has a 7.7 score at WR and whatever Cotchery gets beyond that is his additional score. So if Cotchery gets 12.7, he gets 5 more points since he is adding a 12.7 score and taking a 7.7 score out.
 
Anthony Borbely said:
Kovax said:
Yikes... sitting at 131 w/ no one left!
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I feel your pain. I'm at 129.5 with nothing left. Even if I slide through, next week will be tough with Calvin on a bye and Colston hurt, and only Driver, Walter and Battle at WR.
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LBJ and ADP were my 2 high scoring RB's. I knew it was going to be a tough week when I heard that ADP and RunDMC were injured. Unfortunately, I made 2 bad choices in Rice and Deuce that ended up being empty investments.
 
800+ Wbrook owners

800+ ADP owners

and 450+ LT owners hoping for the best tonight

Not a lot of overlap ownership b/w these high sal guys.

I would think 800+ of our cuts this week own at least one of these guys.

 
Anthony Borbely said:
PatrickT said:
OU#1 said:
How accurate is the Fantasy Star cutoff?119.70 with the Cotchery (-7.7) and Keller (-2.1) prayer... :goodposting:
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Pardon my ignorance, but what's the number in parentheses?
Click to expand...
Basically, for example, it means he has a 7.7 score at WR and whatever Cotchery gets beyond that is his additional score. So if Cotchery gets 12.7, he gets 5 more points since he is adding a 12.7 score and taking a 7.7 score out.
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Got it, thanks.
 
170+ Without my three highest paid players (Romo, LT and Westbrook).

Tony Romo

Kurt Warner

Steve Slaton

LaDainian Tomlinson

Brian Westbrook

Ricky Williams

Steve Breaston

Antonio Bryant

Derek Hagan

Brandon Marshall

Santana Moss

Antwaan Randle El

Steve Smith

Kevin Walter

Anthony Fasano

Michael Gaines

Dustin Keller

Robbie Gould

Matt Prater

Adam Vinatieri

Buffalo

New England

 
The MJD / MBIII combo might not be as bad as I thought. Good weeks by Ricky and Slaton are left on the bench because of it.

My three contributing WRs so far (Cotchery -9.9) are the three I least expect to use on my roster each week: Toomer (11.4), Meachem (10.6) and Ginn Jr (9.9).

The two players I wish I hadn't wasted money on: Patrick Crayton and Matt Schaub.

But at 164.10 (-9.9 with Cotchery), I'm moving on.

 
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There are 6 players owned by at least 30%

Steve Slaton - 59.4

Kurt Warner - 56.5

Ricky Williams - 51.5

Ray Rice - 45.9

Brandon Marshall - 32.2

Dustin Keller - 30.0

I guess I was not thinking outside of the box when choosing my team, because I own all 6 of these players. Notice the huge dropoff from Rice to Marshall; it's 13.7%. The querier only lets you put in 5 players at a time, so I input the top 5 owned. There are 660 of the original 677 teams still left, for an overall 97.49% survival rate. I am guessing less than 5 of the 660 teams will be eliminated this week.

FYI, here are the only other players owned by at least 15%

Tony Romo - 27.9

Marion Barber - 27.8

Jerricho Cotchery - 27.7

Buffalo Bills D - 27.0

Calvin Johnson - 26.9

Mike Nugent - 26.1

Jason Hanson - 25.2

DeSean Jackson - 24.2

Kevin Walter - 23.1

Thomas Jones - 22.5

Drew Brees - 21.9

Chris Johnson - 21.4

Matt Prater - 20.6

Clinton Portis - 19.6

Santonio Holmes - 19.1

Marques Colston - 17.1

Matt Schaub - 17.0

Minnesota Vikings D - 16.2

Matt Ryan - 16.2

Nick Folk - 15.3

Muhsin Muhammad - 15.3

It's strange - I own all 6 of the guys over 30%, but only 3 of the 21 guys from 15-30%. What's even stranger is that I am the only one with a combo of Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, and Tony Gonzalez.

 
ctriopelle said:
tomarken said:
ctriopelle said:
Based on the team sample at fantasy star, the SNF cut line is currently at 123...We'll see what the Turk has to say in the morning!
Click to expand...
Doug Drinen said:
Unofficial pre-MNF cutoff would be 123.55
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
Cha-Ching!That was impressive. Especially since there is an "adjustment factor" that I basically had to make up to hit the last 2 weeks, and I wasn't very confident in it! The Fantasy Star database actually scores quite a bit higher than the general contest for now, so I have to ratchet it down by a factor of about .9. I am also chopping our entries down every week, to kill the eliminated teams, and we will probably need to get a new group of teams in a few weeks.We locked the computation at the 425 valid entries on his site. Just over 500 were submitted, but they were invalid for one reason or another. Those of you that want to be part of the estimate in the future should double check your rosters to make sure you have exactly 22 players, that you picked the right guy (i.e the Steve Smiths, the Mannings, etc.), and that you add up to less than 250 (which is dependent on using the right guy!). Fixing/eliminating all the bad entries is what took us the longest to set things up. OC is trying to put on a valid team filter so that the next batch goes faster, but it will be kicking out live teams that are improperly submitted to him.
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Nice Job on the cut prediction CTR :lmao:I should have the rules in place to check the teams sometime this week...
 
I keep imaging what could have been if only Nate Burleson hadn't gotten hurt. My team would have been a real contender.

But I'm still pretty good. Haven't been close to the cutoff yet and sitting with a power ranking in the 800's.

My most owned players are Warner, Slaton, Rice, Keller, MB3, DeJax, Walter, TJones, Brees, CJ3 & Schaub.

I also wasted some money on TE Utecht, who is hurt and has done nothing so far. Every other spot is doing OK now that Nate Washington finally scored some points. I knew he'd be hit or miss, but I was concerned after he didn't have a single catch for the first two weeks (got me a zero in week 2).

Picks I'm most happy with are Fitz, MB3 & Shockey. While the back end players are important, it is equally important to hit on your high dollar players. Those three are really panning out so far. If Steve Smith steps in and produces as well, I'll be happy.

Week 9 is going to be a real test. If I can get through that week, then I think I have a shot at some money.

 
Dirty Weasel said:
There are 6 players owned by at least 30%Steve Slaton - 59.4Kurt Warner - 56.5Ricky Williams - 51.5Ray Rice - 45.9Brandon Marshall - 32.2Dustin Keller - 30.0FYI, here are the only other players owned by at least 15%Tony Romo - 27.9Marion Barber - 27.8Jerricho Cotchery - 27.7Buffalo Bills D - 27.0Calvin Johnson - 26.9Mike Nugent - 26.1Jason Hanson - 25.2DeSean Jackson - 24.2Kevin Walter - 23.1Thomas Jones - 22.5Drew Brees - 21.9Chris Johnson - 21.4Matt Prater - 20.6Clinton Portis - 19.6Santonio Holmes - 19.1Marques Colston - 17.1Matt Schaub - 17.0Minnesota Vikings D - 16.2Matt Ryan - 16.2Nick Folk - 15.3Muhsin Muhammad - 15.3
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More than a few of those players have byes in weeks 8, 9, and 10. It should make for some very interesting cuts those weeks.
 
Jayrod said:
I keep imaging what could have been if only Nate Burleson hadn't gotten hurt. My team would have been a real contender.
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I concur... Burleson's injury will catch up to us at some point... he was a great buy I figured too. cheap and in a passing offense! But you never know with all the other big injuries... we might still keep on kicking!
 
Can someone explain the thought process of rostering MBIII in this format?

I had him on my roster for a while, but decided the week 10 bye week was not worth his value. That's a tough week to get past from the looks of it so I avoided most all the Cowboys because of it.

 
WisWolvrns said:
Jayrod said:
I keep imaging what could have been if only Nate Burleson hadn't gotten hurt. My team would have been a real contender.
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I concur... Burleson's injury will catch up to us at some point... he was a great buy I figured too. cheap and in a passing offense! But you never know with all the other big injuries... we might still keep on kicking!
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Don't feel bad I have Colston and Maurice Morris but am still alive.
 
BR33ZE said:
Can someone explain the thought process of rostering MBIII in this format?I had him on my roster for a while, but decided the week 10 bye week was not worth his value. That's a tough week to get past from the looks of it so I avoided most all the Cowboys because of it.
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first time in the this contest so I don't have a lot to go on, but I kind of took the approach with him that I needed to get to week 10 before I could worry about getting past week 10........who knows what will happen that week.....
 
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BR33ZE said:
Can someone explain the thought process of rostering MBIII in this format?I had him on my roster for a while, but decided the week 10 bye week was not worth his value. That's a tough week to get past from the looks of it so I avoided most all the Cowboys because of it.
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I figured he was the best buy for a consistant scorer week in and week out. (and he's been over 20 each of the first 3 weeks).To offset his bye week, I have no one else on that bye week (I did have Ray Rice...but that's changed now). Pairing him with Romo, TO or Witten would have been too risky, but Dallas TD, Folk, Felix or Crayton wouldn't have been too big of a deal.
 
Jayrod said:
BR33ZE said:
Can someone explain the thought process of rostering MBIII in this format?I had him on my roster for a while, but decided the week 10 bye week was not worth his value. That's a tough week to get past from the looks of it so I avoided most all the Cowboys because of it.
Click to expand...
I figured he was the best buy for a consistant scorer week in and week out. (and he's been over 20 each of the first 3 weeks).To offset his bye week, I have no one else on that bye week (I did have Ray Rice...but that's changed now). Pairing him with Romo, TO or Witten would have been too risky, but Dallas TD, Folk, Felix or Crayton wouldn't have been too big of a deal.
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Just a quick note - There are 26 teams that have Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens, and Jason Witten. Of those 26 teams, one has 5 more Dallas players (9 total), and 4 other teams have 8 total. All 26 teams are still active.
 
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