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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Makavity
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sdsjr3
Footballguy
Interesting blog entry Doug. And very surprising. I have Marshall and DJax, not Taylor. I look to make it through this cut as well. I'm done and sitting at 159 pts. My roster for this contest generally does well but I've yet to get anywhere near the final 250. but I have a different approach. I look at the salaries and determine a cutoff number (I think this year it was around 35) based on my buckets and tiers on my draft sheet. From that, I can limit who I draft and typically find good value. I feel pretty good about this year and to date, the only injury I've had is Parker, whom should be back week 7. Obviously health is a big key.
Anyway, again, good read, thanks.
RenegadeGM
Footballguy
I also think this was an interesting article.I'm a Marshall and Taylor owner. Wish I had tossed those few bucks I spent on Taylor elsewhere though
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Interesting.Why does Courtney Taylor have more value than the more commonly acquired Steve Slaton, or does he?
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Looks like it is trending with the full sample cut score. Kinda surprised the cut is this high right now, but I'll use this info for the MNF cut later tonight. Good thing I have a decent score already!
Paper Lions
Footballguy
Nice read. Not enough people will understand it.
Paper Lions
Footballguy
He does not have more value.In a nutshell, the point is that people who selected Courtney Taylor were paying attention to what was going on, and used good logic in selecting their team. It didn't pan out, but because they were making good selections and paying attention, the rest of their team is doing quite well.
So even though Courtney Taylor is not a good value, those with him are doing quite well. Good teams correlate with Courtney Taylor, but Coutney Taylor is not the cause. Make sense?
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Got it; thanks.
Jayrod
Footballguy
I'd bet a lot of Courtney Taylor owner's selected a few of these guys as well:
Warner
CJ3
Ricky Williams
Rice
Slaton
DeSean Jackson
Marshall (mentioned in the article)
Steve Smith
Kevin Walter
Steve Breaston
I have several of the above, but don't have Taylor (and am cruising on into week 7). Instead of getting Taylor (who I wasn't sold on), I took Burleson who I thought would produce at a high level for a few weeks and then continue to contribute once some of the other WR's got back.
I bet the Ray Rice correlation is there as well, and I haven't used him once this year.
Warner
CJ3
Ricky Williams
Rice
Slaton
DeSean Jackson
Marshall (mentioned in the article)
Steve Smith
Kevin Walter
Steve Breaston
I have several of the above, but don't have Taylor (and am cruising on into week 7). Instead of getting Taylor (who I wasn't sold on), I took Burleson who I thought would produce at a high level for a few weeks and then continue to contribute once some of the other WR's got back.
I bet the Ray Rice correlation is there as well, and I haven't used him once this year.
Oh the Humanity
Footballguy
Very interesting read. The only thing that I would argue is the validity of using number halfway through the contest to determine how valuable a player is. You get a truer sense of value at the end of the contest by figuring how much money and prizes were won by teams carrying the player in question. (If you were going to actually do this, you'd probably be happier assigning a lower value to 1st place, like say $6000). Admittedly, this method overstates the end result and discounts the enjoyment value of being involved in the contest longer, so you could assign an arbitrary value of making it through each successive round. All in all, real interesting stuff.
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I knew I'd learn to regret my down-to-the-wire switch to NE D from MIN D...gambled on the last two weeks being my big bye weeks.Hanging on at 133.3 with Ward (-6.60) tonight. Here's hoping for garbage time vs. CLE...
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eric rymer
Footballguy
Should be ok with 153. Still have Toomer tonight, so 153 will probably be my final score.
tomarken
Footballguy
I have Ricky, Rice, Slaton, Marshall, and Breaston.And Courtney Taylor. 
And Derek Hagan. 
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
There are 157 other guys who also have Romo/Warner/Ryan.The common bye week of Warner and Ryan is why I took Neckbeard instead of Ryan.Sorry.blend said:
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
993 teams still alive with Romo and Warner. Gonna be a huge cut in week 7....
Lash
Footballguy
easily made it thru again (average beating the cutoff by 52 points weekly) but i am now done
tried to load up with a high amount of RB/WR and just two elite QBs who don't miss games ... Brees/Romo
now I guess it backfired as Brees off week falls in the Romo injury window
oh well, it'll be interesting to keep up with my scores to see if that is the sole reason I don't make it close to the end
tried to load up with a high amount of RB/WR and just two elite QBs who don't miss games ... Brees/Romo
now I guess it backfired as Brees off week falls in the Romo injury window
oh well, it'll be interesting to keep up with my scores to see if that is the sole reason I don't make it close to the end
bro1ncos
IBL Representative
I'm one of these. Hopefully this is where taking a 3rd QB (Cutler) pays off.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Fortunately, at least one of those 993 also has Cutler...
Just gotta hope Warner can hang on a few more weeks!
tomarken
Footballguy
The injury sucks for the Romo owners. Just goes to show how much luck factors into winning this thing. Other than Westbrook going down I've been remarkably lucky with injuries so far, hope that continues...
From a purely selfish perspective as a non-Romo owner, his injury may help my team get through the next couple of tough weeks... so I can't say that I'm too upset about it.
From a purely selfish perspective as a non-Romo owner, his injury may help my team get through the next couple of tough weeks... so I can't say that I'm too upset about it.
shims3
Footballguy
Yep...most of these teams will be packing their bags...just like myself. It was a good run!
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
ctriopelle
Footballguy
actually 125 of them have at least cutler as 3rd, but i'm not planning on checking the full list of possibilities for alternates. It's going to be a rough road for those that only have one backup that hasn't seen his bye yet, but going only one week without a QB isn't necessarily a death sentence. Seriously hurts you, but not an automatic out.
Brutis
Footballguy
I'll be one of those teams.RomoWarnerRyan
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I went with three bargain QBs (Delhomme, Garrard, and Warner) because I didn't want to chance a zero in any week at one of the highest scoring positions in fantasy football.
Cantonese32
Footballguy
The injury sucks for the Romo owners. Just goes to show how much luck factors into winning this thing. Other than Westbrook going down I've been remarkably lucky with injuries so far, hope that continues...
From a purely selfish perspective as a non-Romo owner, his injury may help my team get through the next couple of tough weeks... so I can't say that I'm too upset about it.
Week 7 is going to be my biggest hurdle w/ Fritz, Breaston, Warner, DSJax, and JaxD off. This development may delay my departure.
Txns8
Footballguy
No QB (McNabb as backup) for me along with no Breaston, DSJax and Westbrook. Put a fork in me now....The injury sucks for the Romo owners. Just goes to show how much luck factors into winning this thing. Other than Westbrook going down I've been remarkably lucky with injuries so far, hope that continues...
From a purely selfish perspective as a non-Romo owner, his injury may help my team get through the next couple of tough weeks... so I can't say that I'm too upset about it.
Week 7 is going to be my biggest hurdle w/ Fritz, Breaston, Warner, DSJax, and JaxD off. This development may delay my departure.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
-QG
Random
Footballguy
I'm another one. But I just went through my scores and would've make the cut 5 out of the 6 weeks without using my QB. Hoping to squeak by next week.
Fantasy Feud
Footballguy
I'm at 144 and change. Does anyone have a sense based on history how much the cutoff will increase after tonight's game?
Paper Lions
Footballguy
Last week was around 10 points. I think 5-10 points is a decent guess. It helps you if big name players, like Winslow, don't play.
Kirby
Footballguy
Romo and Warner are my only QB's.
I would have made the cut everyweek without thier scores... but I'm sure I'll need it the week they're both out. 
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I am totally on board with this.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Using the fantasy star database and Dodd's points for the contest scoring, the cut only rises less than 3 points. Of course, the players never hit those numbers exactly, but assuming none of the more popular players really lights it up compared to those numbers, a rise of more than 5 points is unlikely.
Big Score
Footballguy
I made a HUGE mistaked when I took Cutler & Schaub as my only 2 QB's & did not pay attention to their byes. 
Then as luck would have it, Schaub's bye got changed to week 2.
Still only delaying the inevitable as my scores have gone like this
Wk 2 = 202.40
Wk 3 = 150.60
Wk 4 = 159.85
Wk 5 = 158.95
Wk 6 = 159.35
Nothing wrong with consistency, it just ain't consistently high enough to make it past the big boy scores.
Then as luck would have it, Schaub's bye got changed to week 2.
Still only delaying the inevitable as my scores have gone like this
Wk 2 = 202.40
Wk 3 = 150.60
Wk 4 = 159.85
Wk 5 = 158.95
Wk 6 = 159.35
Nothing wrong with consistency, it just ain't consistently high enough to make it past the big boy scores.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Ryan has counted for me the last couple of weeks. He's been scoring well.I'll be one of those teams.RomoWarnerRyan
Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
The MNF 'bump' is typically 3-5 pts. Of course the relative % ownership of MNF players can increase or decrese the likelihood of a bigger bump.
NYG & CLE players are relatively LOW % alive at this point in time (i.e. nobody > 9% owned).
Believe it or not the 2 players that could affect the cut the most tonight are BRADSHAW & BOSS as they are both owned by 500+ alive teams.
Jacobs (293 alive owners) will also save a few teams but even if he exploded for 200 yds and 3 td would not raise the cut 10+ pts.
Just think how many of those 293 are already above the cutline coming into MNF? Prob 150+ of them.
Dawson (296 alive owners) is next but anyone owning him (including me) has not counted on him yet this year.
I would guess that most MNF games have at least a couple players >20% owned that could affect the cut more.
Hope that helps. I don't see the cut moving more than 5 pts max.
NYG & CLE players are relatively LOW % alive at this point in time (i.e. nobody > 9% owned).
Believe it or not the 2 players that could affect the cut the most tonight are BRADSHAW & BOSS as they are both owned by 500+ alive teams.
Jacobs (293 alive owners) will also save a few teams but even if he exploded for 200 yds and 3 td
would not raise the cut 10+ pts.Just think how many of those 293 are already above the cutline coming into MNF? Prob 150+ of them.
Dawson (296 alive owners) is next but anyone owning him (including me) has not counted on him yet this year.
I would guess that most MNF games have at least a couple players >20% owned that could affect the cut more.
Hope that helps. I don't see the cut moving more than 5 pts max.
OU#1
Footballguy
At least you've broken 200.I made a HUGE mistaked when I took Cutler & Schaub as my only 2 QB's & did not pay attention to their byes. :(
Then as luck would have it, Schaub's bye got changed to week 2.
Still only delaying the inevitable as my scores have gone like this
Wk 2 = 202.40
Wk 3 = 150.60
Wk 4 = 159.85
Wk 5 = 158.95
Wk 6 = 159.35
Nothing wrong with consistency, it just ain't consistently high enough to make it past the big boy scores.
I seem to be skating by every week with the occasional 160-180 performace. Only 150.90 this week. :X Does history suggest that teams like this are just buying time? Or is it the random lottery effect if you are lucky enough to make it to the playoffs?
So far so good on the cheap Rodgers/Warner combo but Romo going down does make you conerned.
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