Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%Addai - 11.03% (still out?)Wayne - 22.02%Harrison - 27.16%Clark - 25.52%Indy D - 26.03%White - 29.57%Johnson - 45.5%Titan D - 34.53%I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Nice week. I am too lazy to add mine up, but I think I am OK. I have skated to the next week 3 times by less than 10 points, once by 0.2. Warner....Portis/R Williams/Slaton....Moss/Megatron/Stallworth....LJ Smith/Keller.....Kasey....KC Cheifs......I was a bit worried with Steven Jackson and Berrian off, but Stallworth somehow found the endzone. This is the longest I have ever made it.188.55
Where'd you get those numbers from? They dont seem consistent with these or these.Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.
Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Addai - 11.03% (still out?)
Wayne - 22.02%
Harrison - 27.16%
Clark - 25.52%
Indy D - 26.03%
White - 29.57%
Johnson - 45.5%
Titan D - 34.53%
I had some unexpected production yesterday. 170 with Wayne (-10)Week 9 will be gravy.I think this is my last week. FWP and Bush out leaves me very short at RB. Marshall out hurts the WR corp.
Did I misinterpret the stats querier? I'll be the first to admit that me and math are like oil and water, or maybe cats and water. Or maybe even oily cats and water.I searched for the teams still alive with player X, and took the survival rate as the percentage of owners who were still alive that owned that player. So, Addai had 408 total teams with 45 still alive for a percentage of 11.03.Where'd you get those numbers from? They dont seem consistent with these or these.Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.
Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Addai - 11.03% (still out?)
Wayne - 22.02%
Harrison - 27.16%
Clark - 25.52%
Indy D - 26.03%
White - 29.57%
Johnson - 45.5%
Titan D - 34.53%
Can anyone correct Patrick's numbers (site is blocked for me :( )?I know I need Johnson to put up 25+ points, but I 'd also like to know who I need to root against...Did I misinterpret the stats querier? I'll be the first to admit that me and math are like oil and water, or maybe cats and water. Or maybe even oily cats and water.I searched for the teams still alive with player X, and took the survival rate as the percentage of owners who were still alive that owned that player. So, Addai had 408 total teams with 45 still alive for a percentage of 11.03.Where'd you get those numbers from? They dont seem consistent with these or these.Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.
Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Addai - 11.03% (still out?)
Wayne - 22.02%
Harrison - 27.16%
Clark - 25.52%
Indy D - 26.03%
White - 29.57%
Johnson - 45.5%
Titan D - 34.53%
Oops I think I just saw my own error. That's a percentage of total ownership, not of only teams that are still alive. Oh well, back to being the grammar police.
149 would be a 15 point rise above DD's unofficial preMNF cutoff; have we seen a 15 point rise this year / last year? Last week's rise was tiny; no?ctriopelle said:The science is pretty basic in that we calculate the scores of all the live teams that we extracted from the database back when we started projections, and then use some simple statistics formulas for normal distributions to find the Xth percentile of the our live scores. (where x is the % being cut this week). It should work fantastically with the live sample size we have (currently 214 teams), but unfortunately, our sample isn't exactly random (it is populated with teams that tend to be more successful than the general contest), and that causes accuracy problems. There is also no guarantee that every live team in the database is a real team in the contest, as some people have admittedly entered what-if variations of their team (and we don't know what ones those are). All we could check for was that the roster was valid at the time of submission (about 100 of the original 500+ were not). I also have never updated the sample to include recently added teams, because it is a several hour task to reformat the database to allow me to score every team simultaneously.Most weeks the result is pretty close, and if nothing else, it gives a general idea for whether or not scoring is higher or lower for a given week. Once DD gives us insight into where the pre-MNF cut is, I can also use an adjustment factor that has given us decent accuracy in estimating the MNF cut right after the game is over.levinakl said:per Fantasy Star, in the clubhouse at 160.65... (I think I will lose .6 for Steve Smith's (CAR) negative rushing yards), but I feel that should still let me make the cut at 160.05...
I'm shocked they have the projected cut at 143, but I have no science behind it, just my opinion and knowledge of all the Cutler/Romo, etc owners that had players missing.
I also feel the 143 number is pretty high, but remember that we are cutting 22.5% of teams this week and that is the most to date. There are also only 4 teams on bye this week (due to the HOU reschedule), and that gives us more players to help offset the injuries.
Whatever DD's pre-MNF cut is, this week should give us a 5-10 point rise at most from his number. With 2 extra teams going already, rosters should be more full than usual. Someone will also probably post the highest %owned numbers for tomorrow too, so that people close to the cut can figure out who is going to advance things the fastest.
eta...I was typing this response as DD put his number on the thread. You can be pretty confident if you're over 150 based on his reply, and 145 will probably fly...
Johnson is the only player of significance from a quick scan, he's on 27.3% of live rosters. All the rest look to be below 5%. If you need Johnson to put up 25, the cut will move some due to him, but I still wouldn't expect anywhere close to a 10 point jump tonight. Based on the FS database outputs, 5 points of movement will take some pretty high scores.Can anyone correct Patrick's numbers (site is blocked for me )?I know I need Johnson to put up 25+ points, but I 'd also like to know who I need to root against...Thanks!
Yeah, I typed that up before I ran scoring projections for tonight's game in the model. Using Dodds' projections for tonight's players, the jump looks more like 3 points. As I mentioned in the post above, Johnson looks like the only player for bubble teams to be terribly concerned with, he's on almost 1/3 of rosters.Last week had the ingredients for a big jump, but the Broncos basically got shut down on offense compared to expectations. I haven't looked at future MNF schedules, but it all comes down to how many under the cut teams get help from MNF players. Bye weeks, low scores, and popular MNF players all contribute to this. Since scoring is already pretty decent this week, and the majority of players tonight are pretty uncommon, this week looks like a low rise.149 would be a 15 point rise above DD's unofficial preMNF cutoff; have we seen a 15 point rise this year / last year? Last week's rise was tiny; no?
That gives a little bit of hope since I am done with 140.15.Johnson is the only player of significance from a quick scan, he's on 27.3% of live rosters. All the rest look to be below 5%. If you need Johnson to put up 25, the cut will move some due to him, but I still wouldn't expect anywhere close to a 10 point jump tonight. Based on the FS database outputs, 5 points of movement will take some pretty high scores.Can anyone correct Patrick's numbers (site is blocked for me )?I know I need Johnson to put up 25+ points, but I 'd also like to know who I need to root against...Thanks!
Here are the real percentages of all IND and TEN players for teams still alive...QB - Vince Young (2.4%), Peyton Manning (2.2%)Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.
Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Addai - 11.03% (still out?)
Wayne - 22.02%
Harrison - 27.16%
Clark - 25.52%
Indy D - 26.03%
White - 29.57%
Johnson - 45.5%
Titan D - 34.53%
I did use the querier but, either something's not working right, or I'm not understanding it. Really, I don't think you can this info out of it because, whether I ask it for live teams, dead teams or all teams, I get the same stats at the top, which is a percentage of all teams regardless of whether or not they're still alive.So, I should've been looking at the stat page instead of the querier, my mistake.Here are the real percentages of all IND and TEN players for teams still alive...QB - Vince Young (2.4%), Peyton Manning (2.2%)Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.
Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Addai - 11.03% (still out?)
Wayne - 22.02%
Harrison - 27.16%
Clark - 25.52%
Indy D - 26.03%
White - 29.57%
Johnson - 45.5%
Titan D - 34.53%
RB - Chris Johnson (27.3%), Dominic Rhodes (4.9%), LenDale White (2.2%), Joseph Addai (1.1%)
WR - Marvin Harrison (8.5%), Anthony Gonzalez (5.9%), Justin Gage (4.7%), Reggie Wayne (1.8%), Justin McCareins (0.8%), Brandon Jones (0.8%), Paul Williams (0.6%), Lavelle Hawkins (0.3%), Roy Hall (0.1%)
TE - Alge Crumpler (10.1%), Dallas Clark (1.8%), Bo Scaife (1.7%)
K - Rob Bironas (7.2%), Adam Vinatieri (2.6%)
D - TEN (8.9%), IND (4.3%)
And below is a contest stat link, as well as a contest querier link. It's a good idea to add them to your favorites.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/stats.php
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php
I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.I did use the querier but, either something's not working right, or I'm not understanding it. Really, I don't think you can this info out of it because, whether I ask it for live teams, dead teams or all teams, I get the same stats at the top, which is a percentage of all teams regardless of whether or not they're still alive.So, I should've been looking at the stat page instead of the querier, my mistake.Here are the real percentages of all IND and TEN players for teams still alive...QB - Vince Young (2.4%), Peyton Manning (2.2%)Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.
Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Addai - 11.03% (still out?)
Wayne - 22.02%
Harrison - 27.16%
Clark - 25.52%
Indy D - 26.03%
White - 29.57%
Johnson - 45.5%
Titan D - 34.53%
RB - Chris Johnson (27.3%), Dominic Rhodes (4.9%), LenDale White (2.2%), Joseph Addai (1.1%)
WR - Marvin Harrison (8.5%), Anthony Gonzalez (5.9%), Justin Gage (4.7%), Reggie Wayne (1.8%), Justin McCareins (0.8%), Brandon Jones (0.8%), Paul Williams (0.6%), Lavelle Hawkins (0.3%), Roy Hall (0.1%)
TE - Alge Crumpler (10.1%), Dallas Clark (1.8%), Bo Scaife (1.7%)
K - Rob Bironas (7.2%), Adam Vinatieri (2.6%)
D - TEN (8.9%), IND (4.3%)
And below is a contest stat link, as well as a contest querier link. It's a good idea to add them to your favorites.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/stats.php
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php
Wow. Who would have thunk teams with those 5 guys were doing well?I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.I did use the querier but, either something's not working right, or I'm not understanding it. Really, I don't think you can this info out of it because, whether I ask it for live teams, dead teams or all teams, I get the same stats at the top, which is a percentage of all teams regardless of whether or not they're still alive.So, I should've been looking at the stat page instead of the querier, my mistake.Here are the real percentages of all IND and TEN players for teams still alive...QB - Vince Young (2.4%), Peyton Manning (2.2%)Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.
Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Addai - 11.03% (still out?)
Wayne - 22.02%
Harrison - 27.16%
Clark - 25.52%
Indy D - 26.03%
White - 29.57%
Johnson - 45.5%
Titan D - 34.53%
RB - Chris Johnson (27.3%), Dominic Rhodes (4.9%), LenDale White (2.2%), Joseph Addai (1.1%)
WR - Marvin Harrison (8.5%), Anthony Gonzalez (5.9%), Justin Gage (4.7%), Reggie Wayne (1.8%), Justin McCareins (0.8%), Brandon Jones (0.8%), Paul Williams (0.6%), Lavelle Hawkins (0.3%), Roy Hall (0.1%)
TE - Alge Crumpler (10.1%), Dallas Clark (1.8%), Bo Scaife (1.7%)
K - Rob Bironas (7.2%), Adam Vinatieri (2.6%)
D - TEN (8.9%), IND (4.3%)
And below is a contest stat link, as well as a contest querier link. It's a good idea to add them to your favorites.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/stats.php
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php
My stud list of Romo/Portis/Marshall/Fitzgerald/Winslow is held by 2 teams, both of which are still alive...and I like that there is only one other guy to contend with here...I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
Thanks.Yeah, I typed that up before I ran scoring projections for tonight's game in the model. Using Dodds' projections for tonight's players, the jump looks more like 3 points. As I mentioned in the post above, Johnson looks like the only player for bubble teams to be terribly concerned with, he's on almost 1/3 of rosters.Last week had the ingredients for a big jump, but the Broncos basically got shut down on offense compared to expectations. I haven't looked at future MNF schedules, but it all comes down to how many under the cut teams get help from MNF players. Bye weeks, low scores, and popular MNF players all contribute to this. Since scoring is already pretty decent this week, and the majority of players tonight are pretty uncommon, this week looks like a low rise.149 would be a 15 point rise above DD's unofficial preMNF cutoff; have we seen a 15 point rise this year / last year? Last week's rise was tiny; no?
where can you check that? I looked on thefantasystar site, but couldn't figure out where I could put in my main players to check?My stud list of Romo/Portis/Marshall/Fitzgerald/Winslow is held by 2 teams, both of which are still alive...and I like that there is only one other guy to contend with here...I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
I'm the one and only person to have selected the combo of Brees/Barber/CJ3/Fitz/Smith and as such it has a 100% survival rate.My stud list of Romo/Portis/Marshall/Fitzgerald/Winslow is held by 2 teams, both of which are still alive...and I like that there is only one other guy to contend with here...I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
It's only been listed about 5 times in the last few pages of this thread, but here it is again:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.phpwhere can you check that? I looked on thefantasystar site, but couldn't figure out where I could put in my main players to check?My stud list of Romo/Portis/Marshall/Fitzgerald/Winslow is held by 2 teams, both of which are still alive...and I like that there is only one other guy to contend with here...I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
thanksIt's only been listed about 5 times in the last few pages of this thread, but here it is again:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.phpwhere can you check that? I looked on thefantasystar site, but couldn't figure out where I could put in my main players to check?My stud list of Romo/Portis/Marshall/Fitzgerald/Winslow is held by 2 teams, both of which are still alive...and I like that there is only one other guy to contend with here...I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
179 with crumpler(10) and chris johnson(13)shneikesFUBAR said:same here, I also have Crumpler but I doubt that will matter.Steve Smith and Warner had good weeks for me, and all of my other starters had more than 10 points, despite Marshall, Cutler, and Holmes being out.[icon] said:160+ with Chris JOhnson going on MNF
i was surprised to see I am the only one with Brees/Grant/Portis/Slaton/S. Smith (CAR)nzranger said:Only one with SJax/Boldin/Marshall/SSmith..
I never physically add mine up - give Fantasy Star a try - very good site ...just sign up and load your team. Organized Chaos from these boards created it. Prett dam nice.Nice week. I am too lazy to add mine up, but I think I am OK. I have skated to the next week 3 times by less than 10 points, once by 0.2. Warner....Portis/R Williams/Slaton....Moss/Megatron/Stallworth....LJ Smith/Keller.....Kasey....KC Cheifs......I was a bit worried with Steven Jackson and Berrian off, but Stallworth somehow found the endzone. This is the longest I have ever made it.188.55
If that cut line is accurate, I can say that that statement is right, as that TD squeezes me in at 140.15, knocking someone out below me.Fantasystar final estimate...138.5 I'm sure that late CJ3 TD killed a bunch of teams...got me a win in my league game tho
186.90. Lets go week 9.. Hmmm.. how many Brees's out there.i was surprised to see I am the only one with Brees/Grant/Portis/Slaton/S. Smith (CAR)nzranger said:Only one with SJax/Boldin/Marshall/SSmith..
Closest I've been to the cut all year at 149.25.But I'm a little worried that I may be in trouble if FWP isn't back by Portis' bye in week 10.Fantasystar final estimate...138.5 I'm sure that late CJ3 TD killed a bunch of teams...got me a win in my league game tho
Me too. I didn't have a single player on bye this week, but I'll miss Brees, Steve Smith, Shockey and Kasay in week 9.I've still got Warner and Schaub at QB, all 5 of my RB's and 4 WR's...my weakest spots are TE with only Keller & Utecht and Kicker with only Rackers. 3 Defenses all in play, though.Week 9 is my Waterloo. Brees sits, although I still have Cutler. My available WRs are A. Bryant, Breaston, Miles Austin, and Early Doucet.
Live to play another day, thanks to USC alumni.Swamp3 QB's all over 30 and I am coming up short. Sitting at 135 with a cutoff projected at 143, but, and it's a big butt, I have LenDale going on Monday. Come on run the freaking ball.Swamp
moving on baby!Should be some fairly high cut rates for alot of expensive RB's this week...
Goose eggs
ADP - 53
Addai - 50
SJax - 50
LJ - 40
Bush - 33
Maroney - 33