2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[Doug Drinen]

That's likely because if a player outperforms expectations, it counts, but if they underperform, it usually doesn't.

Correct. In mathematical terms, what you're saying is that the expected value of the maximum is not the same as the maximum of the expected values.Oversimplified model:QB1: projected 20 pointsQB2: projected 18 pointsQB3: projected 16 pointsAssume all three QBs' fantasy points in a given game are distributed normally with a standard deviation of, say, 10. The maximum of the projections is 20. But the projected maximum, for exactly the reasons you stated, is considerably higher: about 26.5 as it turns out.

 

[831hoops]

That's likely because if a player outperforms expectations, it counts, but if they underperform, it usually doesn't.

Correct. In mathematical terms, what you're saying is that the expected value of the maximum is not the same as the maximum of the expected values.Oversimplified model:QB1: projected 20 pointsQB2: projected 18 pointsQB3: projected 16 pointsAssume all three QBs' fantasy points in a given game are distributed normally with a standard deviation of, say, 10. The maximum of the projections is 20. But the projected maximum, for exactly the reasons you stated, is considerably higher: about 26.5 as it turns out.

Reminds me of the good old days of casino whoring.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Well, I guess still being alive in week 9 is a bonus, so I can't say I made any bad buys at this point. I've only used the $12 spent of Delhomme once, but I still wouldn't take that money back. Having only Cutler and Warner would've been too risky. We all knew Warner was great value at $5 when the contest started, but how many of us knew for sure that he'd still be a starter through the bye weeks of our other QB's we chose? Also, I liked the slim possibility of having 3 QB's to choose from in weeks 14-16 if I was fortunate enough to make it that far. At RB, the $19 spent on Maurice Morris ($11) and Ricky Williams ($8) has yet to be used. It's nice to have the depth though, and they still have time to save my bacon if my other RB's (MJD, Portis, Slaton, Leon, and Rice) don't produce. At WR, I fell for Reggie Williams ($8) and his high TD total from last year. I didn't expect to use him much as I figured he'd be all or nothing each week. Reggie has pretty much warmed my bench with Steve Smith, Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery, Derrick Mason, and Steve Breaston performing well. At TE, I can't really say the $2 spent on Dustin Keller was aweful, but I did expect more so far from him. Glad to see Gonzo catching his share of passes the last few weeks. I only spent $6 total on kickers and defenses (2 of each), so no complaints there.

 

[cjack]

$29 on McFadden could have definitely been better spent. $18 on an injured, mostly ineffective Shockey could have been better spent.

But, I'm very happy with Warner at $5, Slaton at $1, Marshall and Cotchery at $23, Jennings at $22, and even Devery Henderson at $2. I'd say Jason Hill has been a waste of $2, but he saved my ### this week when Marshall and Jennings were on bye.

Is there a link to the original dollar prices for all eligible players? I'd like to see what type of team could have been put together in retrospect.

 

[Faust]

Still comfortably alive.Wondering who out there (non-Brady category, perhaps) has been people's worst buy on their roster?

Maybe not the worst buy but my biggest mistake was a last minute switch from DeSean Jackson to Derek Hagan.

Me too!

 

[Otis]

Heading into Week 9 and probably dumping out here with Bush hurt and Gore on a BYE. Unless my receivers do something absurd I could be in serious trouble.

 

[Erin Go Bragh]

Have the new power rankings been posted?

 

[teamramrod]

Have the new power rankings been posted?

I am out folks.Thanks alot for running the contest, this was a lot of fun.See you all next year when i will win my lifetime subscription...Peace

 

[H8fulHuck]

Coles scores 20 points and Cotchery scores 19.20. Their prices are only different by $1. They should be similar in elimination %, right? Wrong! Cotchery - 79%, Coles - 241%. Coles was the 9th best WR this week, and he got eliminated at a higher rate than Brandon Marshall, who was laying on his couch on Sunday.

that's remarkable

Actually, I think this probably points to an earlier post about the (taylor?) effect. People who drafted Cotch probably were paying closer attention than Coles owners. Favre had an early connection going with Cotch and Coles was whining. Savvy fantasy players would tend to pick up on that and spend the extra buck hoping to guess right on Favre's favorite target.

 

[EBF]

IN

Peyton Manning $27 18.85 19.55 16.00 0.00 24.15 31.35 9.35 27.25

Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05

Maurice Jones-Drew $34 7.00 11.70 24.60 5.90 12.00 27.80 0.00 6.30

Reggie Bush $33 26.30 12.60 32.30 6.30 12.80 20.20 6.50 0.00

Clinton Portis $33 8.40 22.90 15.70 14.50 22.80 26.80 24.80 13.70

Ricky Williams $8 5.90 3.40 12.90 0.00 4.40 12.00 1.60 12.90

Calvin Johnson $25 17.70 30.90 8.00 0.00 3.60 18.50 23.20 16.40

Santana Moss $14 14.70 32.10 20.50 22.50 0.00 4.20 17.50 29.00

Ted Ginn $13 3.90 1.90 9.90 0.00 12.50 0.90 8.80 24.50

Isaac Bruce $10 0.00 19.30 9.90 16.40 19.90 4.80 7.70 8.90

Reggie Williams $8 3.70 7.60 2.10 8.60 0.00 6.10 0.00 13.20

Antwaan Randle El $4 14.30 9.30 5.85 14.10 13.30 13.70 9.60 7.70

DeSean Jackson $4 16.60 17.00 9.10 21.60 3.10 15.90 0.00 10.20

Demetrius Williams $3 1.30 0.00 5.60 1.60 3.20 11.30 0.00 14.00

Antonio Bryant $2 7.30 0.00 23.80 7.90 12.80 2.30 23.50 10.50

Jeremy Shockey $18 14.40 5.20 19.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 2.10

Dustin Keller $2 0.00 3.40 16.10 9.90 0.00 0.00 2.10 9.80

Mike Nugent $1 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rian Lindell $1 12.00 10.00 7.00 16.00 7.00 0.00 14.00 14.00

Houston Texans $2 4.00 0.00 4.00 1.00 4.00 10.00 2.00 14.00

New Orleans Saints $2 4.00 10.00 6.00 12.00 13.00 6.00 1.00 4.00

St. Louis Rams $1 0.00 2.00 3.00 6.00 0.00 16.00 11.00 7.00

Need Reggie and Shockey to get healthy quickly or week 10 will be very dicey assuming I survive week 9.

If I can somehow squeak past the next two cuts and get healthy then I think I have a shot.

 

[Doug Drinen]

New power rankings

 

[BAT1man]

If my math is correct, 81% of survivors thru week 8 have Steve Slaton on their team.

 

[Tigerpiper]

Raster Williams

Vector Tomlinson was a much better value.

What's the vector, Victor?

 

[Worm]

Ranked in the 1700's but my uniqueness is 3084. Can't be good.

 

[T Bell]

I survived for one more week, but I fully expect this to be my last week. My QB's are Brees (bye) and Romo (injury). I should have drafted a 3rd QB.

 

[rick6668]

If my math is correct, 81% of survivors thru week 8 have Steve Slaton on their team.

Wow, that's huge. Still alive and I don't.

 

[OU#1]

My power rankings:

Week 2: 4448

Week 3: 2098

Week 4: 2234

Week 5: 2317

Week 6: 2108

Week 7: 2397

Week 8: 1630

Week 9: 1265

Not sure how the uniqueness is factored in? My Big 3 are ADP, Megatron, and Schmitty which is only owned by six other people. I'm the only person left with ADP, Cotch, Megatron, and Schmitty.

Regardless I'm happy to still be alive considering this is my first go at it and I spent maybe 10 minutes setting up my team.

 

[FUBAR]

is it bad that some of my passwords are now my team's #?

 

[FUBAR]

Ranked in the 1700's but my uniqueness is 3084. Can't be good.

top 300 with UQ around 2,000 - I just hope the few unique players I have explode soon.

 

[rick6668]

I've been very lucky in this thing. I've never done it before, and did it in 2 minutes and meant to go back to it, never did.

Winslow has been killing me, 3 Zeros so far and I've used a zero at TE twice now.

Michael Bush saved me in Week 4 - 16.30 , made the cut by 13 with zero's from remaining RB's

Sinorice Moss saved me in Week 5 - 20.50, made the cut by 7 with next highest WR at 5.50

Chris Baker Saved me in Week 7 - 11.70

Steve Smith(NYG) saved me week 8 - 7.5, otherwise zero.

Made the Weekly cutoff by 26, 54, 14, 17, 7, 20, 17, 7

It's been fun, but I'll likely be out soon.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Cracked the top 500 finally. looking forward to romo, FWP and Colston reverting to form.

Romo/Warner/Orton

FWP/TJones/CJ3/Ricky/Slaton

Colston/Fitz/Marshall/Harrison/ReggieWilliams/Kevin Walter

Olsen/Fasano/Keller/Royal

Bironis/Crosby

Bears/Rams

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

Cracked the top 100 with Westbrook coming back and Winslow coming off his suspension, even though Brees and Steve Smith are on bye this week.

Will be interesting to see the power rankings after the byes are done.

 

[Jayrod]

Here's some info on my squad through the halfway point for personal reference:

QB - 8 (31.4)

Brees - 4 (32.0)

Schaub - 2 (30.6)

Warner - 2 (30.8)

RB - 20 (18.9)

Barber - 6 (21.5)

Jones - 4 (17.5)

Johnson - 6 (17.0)

Rice - 0

Slaton - 4 (19.4)

WR - 27 (17.7)

Fitzgerald - 6 (21.2)

Smith - 6 (19.6)

Burleson - 1 (17.0)

Walter - 5 (17.0)

Jackson - 4 (17.8)

Washington - 4 (14.8)

took a zero in week 2

TE - 9 (11.0)

Shockey - 4 (12.9)

Utecht - 2 (5.6)

Keller - 3 (11.9)

K - 8 (11.8)

Rackers - 2 (11.0)

Kasay - 6 (12.0)

DEF - 8 (9.0)

Jaguars - 3 (9.0)

Seahawks - 2 (15.5)

Dolphins - 2 (7.0)

took a zero in week 4

Average Total = 171.4

Range: 151.60 - 187.25 = 35.65 variance

Closest to cutoff = 20.95

 

[Road Warriors]

Still comfortably alive.Wondering who out there (non-Brady category, perhaps) has been people's worst buy on their roster?At $11 I haven't gotten squat out of Sidney Rice after Week 1. However, Braylon Edwards at $36 has only counted toward my score twice. I can't be too hard on Westbrook, but at $54 he has only scored for me four times so far.Brandon Coutu and Ben Obamanu (both $1) weren't expensive, but have been worthless roster spots since the get-go.

Worst 3... Selvin Young - 21 ( used 3 times - never more than 10 pts )Braylon Edwards - 36 ( used 4 times, 3 in the past 3 weeks. )Sidney Rice - 11 ( used 1 time )My RB2, my WR1 and my WR4, representing 13.6% of my roster spots and 27.2% of my overall budget.

 

[BR33ZE]

New power rankings

It looks like everyonoe in the top 25 has this combo: Slaton & Marshall.24 of the top 25 also have Warner.

 

[ctriopelle]

New power rankings

Back up to #60 this week, but UQ is getting worse by the week. Need to get past Romo and Bush's injuries, and hope the week 10 byes don't hurt me too badly. With Bush playing I was pretty confident, but with only 2 RB's available that week, I will definitely be looking for some nice contribution from the WR's/Flex spot. Oh well, at least I live to fight in week 9!Has anyone checked to see how many teams that have been ranked in the top 10 power ranks at any point this year have been eliminated? If so, it would be interesting to see how many were killed due to byes vs injuries vs just plain old bad weeks.

 

[ctriopelle]

New power rankings

It looks like everyonoe in the top 25 has this combo: Slaton & Marshall.24 of the top 25 also have Warner.

count me in the slayton/marshall/warner crowd too...

 

[jdoggydogg]

New power rankings

It looks like everyonoe in the top 25 has this combo: Slaton & Marshall.24 of the top 25 also have Warner.

count me in the slayton/marshall/warner crowd too...

 

[bkterps]

Looks like my ride will end this week :( I don't have any "choices" this week. I have to take the scores from Slaton, TJones, and RWilliams at RB and FLEX. I also have to rely on Marshall, DeseanJackson, and Crayton at WR!! The rest of my RBs and WRs are all on BYE. Didn't factor that issue when choosing my team Who knows, maybe the cut will be VERY low this week

 

[Alberta Clipper]

I'm in the top 500 power but not feeling very U (unique). Me and Joe B are among the 30 or so very high U teams in the top 500 power.

Like DD says that might get me to the finals but will make it very difficult to climb the mountain as everyone around me will have the same players.

 

[apalmer]

My Power Ranking continues to fluctuate as much as the Dow Jones--now down to #734. UQ is very high (2761), BUT according to the Querier, I'm also 1 of only 10 teams with LT and Willie Parker (and 1 of only 2 teams to combine those two with Gonzo at TE). I have to hope Willie plays this week to get me through LT's bye and that the three of them blast through the rest of the schedule to make a difference for me.

 

[joffer]

where's the link to the query page?

 

[Alias]

New power rankings

It looks like everyonoe in the top 25 has this combo: Slaton & Marshall.24 of the top 25 also have Warner.

I wouldn't trust those power ratings too much, I compared myself against the #1 team and his power in every single position was stronger then my team which doesn't make sense. Week 1 we had the same score, and we split the next six 3-3.

 

[Doug Drinen]

I wouldn't trust those power ratings too much, I compared myself against the #1 team and his power in every single position was stronger then my team which doesn't make sense. Week 1 we had the same score, and we split the next six 3-3.

The rankings don't care about your past scores (except indirectly). The return of Westbrook --- who failed to contribute anything to that team's score in weeks 3, 4, 6, and 7 --- is a major factor in that team's ranking.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

The least unique team is:

QB - Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan

RB - Thomas Jones, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Ricky Williams, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton

WR - Marques Colston, Calvin Johnson, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery

TE - LJ Smith, Dustin Keller

K - Mike Nugent, Rian Lindell, Matt Prater

D - Patriots, Cowboys, Bills

The only players under 10% owned are LJ Smith (7.4) and Patriots (9.4). His average ownership is 31.05%.

The most unique team is:

QB - Jake Delhomme, Kyle Orton

RB - Ryan Grant, Selvin Young, Fred Taylor, Kenny Watson, Derrick Ward, Dominic Rhodes

WR - Andre Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings, Lee Evans, Isaac Bruce

TE - Donald Lee, Ben Utecht, Desmond Clark

K - Ryan Longwell, Matt Bryant, Shaun Suisham

D - Packers, Panthers, Chiefs

The only players over 10% owned are Delhomme (16.2), Utecht (13.9), and Suisham (12.2). His average ownership is 5.85%.

 

[Alberta Clipper]

Is this contest stats report based on original entries or updated % each week?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contes.../percentown.htm

If it is the initial % it would be great if an updated report could be produced each week.

i.e. at a quick glance during play on Sun or later on MNF anyone could quickly see how many of a certain player were still alive.

I know someone posted a link last week but I can't seem to find it anymore.

Thanks in advance

 

[Das Boot]

I survived for one more week, but I fully expect this to be my last week. My QB's are Brees (bye) and Romo (injury). I should have drafted a 3rd QB.

Well lhucks approves of your 2 QB / no Warner strategy, so you got that going for ya.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

New power rankings

It looks like everyonoe in the top 25 has this combo: Slaton & Marshall.24 of the top 25 also have Warner.

I wouldn't trust those power ratings too much, I compared myself against the #1 team and his power in every single position was stronger then my team which doesn't make sense. Week 1 we had the same score, and we split the next six 3-3.

The power rankings heavily weight the 'starters' and top backup at each position and basically ignore the rest of the team (3rd QB,4th-5th RB, 5th-7th WR . . .) even though those guys contribute each week. So, if you put most of your dollars in your starters (2RB's, 3 WR's) and spent little on the rest, you are likely to be rated higher in the rankings. The top teams generally reflect this. I have been ranked in the bottom 3rd every single week. According to the rankings, I should be gone.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

New power rankings

It looks like everyonoe in the top 25 has this combo: Slaton & Marshall.24 of the top 25 also have Warner.

I wouldn't trust those power ratings too much, I compared myself against the #1 team and his power in every single position was stronger then my team which doesn't make sense. Week 1 we had the same score, and we split the next six 3-3.

The power rankings heavily weight the 'starters' and top backup at each position and basically ignore the rest of the team (3rd QB,4th-5th RB, 5th-7th WR . . .) even though those guys contribute each week. So, if you put most of your dollars in your starters (2RB's, 3 WR's) and spent little on the rest, you are likely to be rated higher in the rankings. The top teams generally reflect this. I have been ranked in the bottom 3rd every single week. According to the rankings, I should be gone.

Ditto. Unfortunately, depth will hopefully get you past the byes and Week 13, but the remaining teams with uber-studs then regain a big advantage.

 

[Doug Drinen]

So, if you put most of your dollars in your starters (2RB's, 3 WR's) and spent little on the rest, you are likely to be rated higher in the rankings.

I'd amend that a little bit. It has nothing to do with dollars. It has to do with whether your top players look good going forward. There is only one team in the top 10 that spent more than $25 on a WR. There are a lot of teams near the top that have Kevin Walter and Santana Moss and DeSean Jackson. Whether the exact weights I'm using are optimal or not, I don't know. But I definitely still think that the ratings should weight your best players more heavily than your depth players.

I have been ranked in the bottom 3rd every single week. According to the rankings, I should be gone.

Has your power ranking ever been below the cut line for that week?

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Doug,

I'm trying to understand the power rankings but am confused. I'll cite an example so you can hopefully show me where I am going wrong. Let's use Philip Rivers here. Here is a cut & paste of the formula used for QB's:

I used the databases that generate the weekly cheatsheets and the custom top 200 forward to get an estimate of how many points each player will score for the rest of the season. I double-weighted the upcoming week's projections because those are a bit more certain

I computed a QB strength score as:

(best QB points) + .5*(second-best QB points) + .25*(third-best QB points)

Now, we know that Rivers is off this week, so there is no double-weighting done for him in week 9. His projected pts for the rest of the season is 148.9 on the custom top 200 forward, but that is for FBG standard scoring (it's also 148.9 for PPR scoring, but is only 103.1pts for TD-heavy scoring). I checked a live team with only Rivers at QB, and he has a power ranking of 171.

I'm wondering why his power ranking is 171 if he is projected to score 148.9 points and is 100% sure to miss week 9? My guess is that you aren't using FBG standard scoring to come up with 171, but if not, where are you getting 171 from?

 

[apalmer]

where's the link to the query page?

On the Week 9 Content page (or any other week for that matter).

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

Doug,

I'm trying to understand the power rankings but am confused. I'll cite an example so you can hopefully show me where I am going wrong. Let's use Philip Rivers here. Here is a cut & paste of the formula used for QB's:

I used the databases that generate the weekly cheatsheets and the custom top 200 forward to get an estimate of how many points each player will score for the rest of the season. I double-weighted the upcoming week's projections because those are a bit more certain

I computed a QB strength score as:

(best QB points) + .5*(second-best QB points) + .25*(third-best QB points)

Now, we know that Rivers is off this week, so there is no double-weighting done for him in week 9. His projected pts for the rest of the season is 148.9 on the custom top 200 forward, but that is for FBG standard scoring (it's also 148.9 for PPR scoring, but is only 103.1pts for TD-heavy scoring). I checked a live team with only Rivers at QB, and he has a power ranking of 171.

I'm wondering why his power ranking is 171 if he is projected to score 148.9 points and is 100% sure to miss week 9? My guess is that you aren't using FBG standard scoring to come up with 171, but if not, where are you getting 171 from?

Im not positive, but I think standard FBG scoring uses 4 points per passing TD while the contest uses 6.

 

[apalmer]

Doug,

I'm trying to understand the power rankings but am confused. I'll cite an example so you can hopefully show me where I am going wrong. Let's use Philip Rivers here. Here is a cut & paste of the formula used for QB's:

I used the databases that generate the weekly cheatsheets and the custom top 200 forward to get an estimate of how many points each player will score for the rest of the season. I double-weighted the upcoming week's projections because those are a bit more certain

I computed a QB strength score as:

(best QB points) + .5*(second-best QB points) + .25*(third-best QB points)

Now, we know that Rivers is off this week, so there is no double-weighting done for him in week 9. His projected pts for the rest of the season is 148.9 on the custom top 200 forward, but that is for FBG standard scoring (it's also 148.9 for PPR scoring, but is only 103.1pts for TD-heavy scoring). I checked a live team with only Rivers at QB, and he has a power ranking of 171.

I'm wondering why his power ranking is 171 if he is projected to score 148.9 points and is 100% sure to miss week 9? My guess is that you aren't using FBG standard scoring to come up with 171, but if not, where are you getting 171 from?

I set up a team through myFBG using the contest scoring. If you do that, Rivers projects at 171.9 for future week scoring in the Custom 250.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Power Ranking in the 2300's but a UQ of the mid Two Hundreds so I guess that gives me some hope.......

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Doug,

I'm trying to understand the power rankings but am confused. I'll cite an example so you can hopefully show me where I am going wrong. Let's use Philip Rivers here. Here is a cut & paste of the formula used for QB's:

I used the databases that generate the weekly cheatsheets and the custom top 200 forward to get an estimate of how many points each player will score for the rest of the season. I double-weighted the upcoming week's projections because those are a bit more certain

I computed a QB strength score as:

(best QB points) + .5*(second-best QB points) + .25*(third-best QB points)

Now, we know that Rivers is off this week, so there is no double-weighting done for him in week 9. His projected pts for the rest of the season is 148.9 on the custom top 200 forward, but that is for FBG standard scoring (it's also 148.9 for PPR scoring, but is only 103.1pts for TD-heavy scoring). I checked a live team with only Rivers at QB, and he has a power ranking of 171.

I'm wondering why his power ranking is 171 if he is projected to score 148.9 points and is 100% sure to miss week 9? My guess is that you aren't using FBG standard scoring to come up with 171, but if not, where are you getting 171 from?

I set up a team through myFBG using the contest scoring. If you do that, Rivers projects at 171.9 for future week scoring in the Custom 250.

That worked like a champ, thanks. Now I can see exactly where my power ranking points are coming from.

 

[FUBAR]

New power rankings

It looks like everyonoe in the top 25 has this combo: Slaton & Marshall.24 of the top 25 also have Warner.

count me in the slayton/marshall/warner crowd too...

 

[Dirty Weasel]

For all those wondering about individual player power rankings, below are the numbers for QB's. Note - the power rankings change from week to week, so these numbers are only good for week 9. After the games are played this week, the rankings for each player will change for a few reasons:

- Their projected total points for the rest of the season will be lower, because they just played another game.

- The next opponent for each player will change. For example - Drew Brees currently has a power ranking of 207. That is because he is projected to score 207 points in this contest for the rest of the season, but he is off this week. Next week his power ranking will be higher, because he will get double points for his week 10 game.

- Since the entire power ranking system is based on projected scoring for games not yet played, the power ranking will change if the projected scoring changes. An example of this would be Tony Romo. He is projected to miss weeks 9 and 10, so his ranking is 163. That is only 7 points higher than Derek Anderson. If, by some miracle, Romo was today declared 100% healthy and ready for week 9, his ranking would shoot up about 50 points (my estimate of 25 projected points for week 9, and doubled because week 9 is the current week).

OK, enough explaining. Here is the list:

248 - Cutler

216 - P. Manning

214 - McNabb

214 - Warner

207 - Brees

207 - Rodgers

198 - Schaub

197 - Roethlisberger

190 - E. Manning

190 - Orton

186 - Garrard

175 - Pennington

171 - Rivers

169 - Campbell

169 - Ryan

168 - Edwards

163 - Romo

163 - Bulger

156 - Anderson

154 - Delhomme

154 - Russell

136 - Garcia

131 - Flacco

57 - Hasselbeck

40 - Jackson

34 - Young

29 - T. Smith

19 - Leinart

11 - Grossman

3 - Clemens

3 - Redman

3 - McCown

0 - Brady

0 - Palmer

0 - Kitna

0 - Huard

0 - Croyle

0 - A. Smith

Since only a max of 3 QB's are figured into the power rankings, the highest ranking possible for this week would be a combo of Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, and either Donovan McNabb or Kurt Warner, with a score of 410. That would be:

Cutler - 248

Manning - 108 (he is your 2nd highest QB, so you get 1/2 his score)

McNabb or Warner - 54 (either one would be your 3rd highest QB, so you get 1/4 their score)

Sorry for the long post, but I was only trying to make sense of the power rankings to all who didn't understand (like I did, until about 2 hours ago).

 

[rzrback77]

Updated after week eight --- Summary of my team (for my information and for you die-hard's entertainment)

QBs - not the norm here and VERY nice balance

McNabb 9.9% owned and 23.2% alive - used four times 82.7 pts ave 20.68

Schaub 22.2% owned and 30.9% alive - used four times 123.5 pts ave 30.88

RBs - traveling with the herd, but like the depth

Clinton Portis 31.6% owned and 42.6% alive - used six times 126.7 pts ave 21.1

DeA Williams 15.9% owned and 36.7% alive - used three times 62.1 pts ave 20.7

Chris Johnson 30.4% owned and 39.3% alive - used five times 96.1 pts ave 19.2

Rasta Williams 60.0% owned and 29.9% alive - used once 12.9 pts ave 12.9

Ray Rice 53.6% owned and 29.8% alive - used twice 22.0 pts ave 11.0

Steve Slaton 81.1% owned and 35.2% alive - used four times 80.5 pts ave 20.1

WRs - This line-up has been really strong

Calvin Johnson 35.3% owned and 38.6% alive - used five times 106.7 pts ave 21.3

Sant Holmes 18.3% owned and 23.9% alive - used twice 25.9 pts ave 12.95 - Trouble spot

Bran Marshall 44.9% owned and 41.0% alive - used four times 106.5 pts ave 26.63

Steve Smith 27.8% owned and 44.9% alive - used six times 117.7 pts ave 19.6

Kev Walter 37.8% owned and 44.0% alive - used three times 64.7 pts ave 21.6

DeSe Jackson 32.9% owned and 39.3% alive - used four times 71.1 pts ave 17.78

Anton Bryant 16.2% owned and 41.2% alive - used three times 60.1 pts ave 20.0

TEs - went with the unpopular guys here - This could be trouble

Zach Miller 8.9% owned and 31.3% alive - used six times 67.2 pts ave 11.2

Todd Heap 2.2% owned and 18.6% alive - used twice 16.3 pts ave 8.15

PKs - went with three for insurance

Hanson 25.2% owned and 25.4% alive - used three times 35.0 pts ave 11.67

Lindell 14.6% owned and 28.2% alive - used twice 28.0 pts ave 14.0

Prater 23.8% owned and 30.0% alive - used three times 48.0 pts ave 16.0

DST

Buffalo Bills 31.1% owned and 29.4% alive - used four times 36.0 pts ave 9.0

Arizona Cards 1.9% owned and 26.6% alive - used four times 41.0 pts ave 10.3

Week Nine Byes - S Smith and DeAngelo Williams

Week Ten Byes - Clinton Portis and Antonio Bryant

Nice depth info for my squad

QB games over 20 not used - three

RB games over 12 not used - five

WR games over 12 not used - four

TE games over 10 not used - NONE

PK games over 10 not used - six

DST games over 10 not used - one

 

[BuckeyeArt]

So, if you put most of your dollars in your starters (2RB's, 3 WR's) and spent little on the rest, you are likely to be rated higher in the rankings.

I'd amend that a little bit. It has nothing to do with dollars. It has to do with whether your top players look good going forward. There is only one team in the top 10 that spent more than $25 on a WR. There are a lot of teams near the top that have Kevin Walter and Santana Moss and DeSean Jackson. Whether the exact weights I'm using are optimal or not, I don't know. But I definitely still think that the ratings should weight your best players more heavily than your depth players.

I disagree. High dollars generally mean better players. A $25 player is a relatively high dollar player when the average player is around $12. The weightings shouldn't necessarily weight the best players. They are already weighted by having the best projections. The weightings should correspond to the number of players at each position who are likely to be relevant. For example, your weightings directly match the number of starters required at each position. Yet, it has been shown that teams with 7 WRs advance at the highest rate and teams with 8 are roughly equal to teams with 6. The weightings assign very little strength to the 5th, 6th, and 7th WR even though they obviously are relevant in a best ball format.

Has your power ranking ever been below the cut line for that week?

I don't know. Maybe once. I don't think anymore than that. But, it doesn't matter. If I'm at the bottom in week 2, that means I have passed many of the teams above me. If I was around 7900 at week 2 and 1900 week 9, I have passed about 6000 teams who were considered more powerful. The change in projections can't account for that.