Das Boot
Footballguy
Those odds were just for this week, not for the whole contest.147 pts with some guys still going. This should be enough to move on... see ya next week. 98.3% chance to win the whole thing?
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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Makavity
- Start date
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Almost pissed my pants when I read this. I guess we have our winner. Game over, man, game over!Those odds were just for this week, not for the whole contest.147 pts with some guys still going. This should be enough to move on... see ya next week. 98.3% chance to win the whole thing?
Robbie Cooper
Footballguy
Done at 169 this week. Hoping that's enough to move on to Week 10.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
According to FantasyStar*, I'm at 130.5 w/ Portis (-4.9) and Holmes (-6.8) to go.
* - I haven't checked in here in a few weeks because FantasyStar showed me as being eliminated in Week 7, when I actually finished ON the cut line. Love the FantasyStar site, but there's still some scoring discrepancies, particularly in defense scoring.
* - I haven't checked in here in a few weeks because FantasyStar showed me as being eliminated in Week 7, when I actually finished ON the cut line. Love the FantasyStar site, but there's still some scoring discrepancies, particularly in defense scoring.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
151.8 with Gaffney(4.7) yet to go...if there was ever a night for him to get a sneaky TD, this would be it.
Not sure what the cut wil be but I still don't feel safe.
Not sure what the cut wil be but I still don't feel safe.
WisWolvrns
Footballguy
*knock* *knock* *knock*.... doh... come on Holmes and Watson... I don't want to answer that door with the Turk knock'n... (only at 100...)
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
Fantasy scores are low this week in all my leagues. You should be safe.I'm at 153 with Portis & Gaffney (-8 for the flex spot)
Challenge Everything
Footballguy
Where are you getting the numbers for the players today? I know all of you are not adding them up yourselves. I am curious where I stand.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Fantasy Star current cut level is 124.1. We've been a bit higher than DD's actual the past couple of weeks, so I am trying to fix that by using the prior week's adjustment factor.
Right now I'm at 139.2 with Portis (-4.4), Santana Moss (-6.7) and NE Def (-8.0). Should be safe with the points I expect from that crew, but I'm not fully confident it will be a huge margin when the dust settles. I expect a cut of about 135-140 this week.
Right now I'm at 139.2 with Portis (-4.4), Santana Moss (-6.7) and NE Def (-8.0). Should be safe with the points I expect from that crew, but I'm not fully confident it will be a huge margin when the dust settles. I expect a cut of about 135-140 this week.
joffer
Footballguy
147 pts with some guys still going. This should be enough to move on... see ya next week. 98.3% chance to win the whole thing?
159 with Portis -8.6, Holmes -8.7 and Steelers D -11
I will see you all next week, well about 2/3 of you.
I will see you all next week, well about 2/3 of you.
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
147 pts with some guys still going. This should be enough to move on... see ya next week. 98.3% chance to win the whole thing?
Liquid Courage
Footballguy
180.30 with Portis to go (-13.2).
Just don't know how long K. Warner, A. Bryant and S. Slaton will continue to carry me. I need MJD and Ted Ginn to step up... omg.. I'm so screwed.
P.S. to Grid71 - www.thefantasystar.com - sign up and enter your team.
Just don't know how long K. Warner, A. Bryant and S. Slaton will continue to carry me. I need MJD and Ted Ginn to step up... omg.. I'm so screwed.
P.S. to Grid71 - www.thefantasystar.com - sign up and enter your team.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
this is probably it for me. no qb, bush, marshall. it was nice while it lasted.
and #### you jon kitna for tearing it up in the preseason!!
and #### you jon kitna for tearing it up in the preseason!!
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm the only idiot that gets great joy out of manually adding up all my players and their stats...probably the most fun I have in this contest...try it.
OU#1
Footballguy
I added mine up myself. Took all of three minutes.The fantasy star site hasn't been working for me since the 2nd quarter of the early games...
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
S.Moss is likely going to be your meal ticket...he makes some plays you're in.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Goose eggs at QB (# of live owners in front):
847 - Brees
737 - Romo
504 - Delhomme
134 - Rivers
125 - Kitna
71 - Young
59 - Jackson
31 - Brady
26 - Croyle
25 - Palmer
13 - Leinart
4 - Hasselbeck
3 - A. Smith
1 - Huard
1 - Redman
0 - McCown
0 - Clemens
Scores under 10 points
689 - Schaub (5.95)
8 - Russell (5.15)
6 - T. Smith (.10)
Scores under 20 points
282 - Garrard (13.10)
193 - Orton (12.10)
104 - Pennington (13.05)
33 - Edwards (18.45)
5 - Grossman (14.20)
847 - Brees
737 - Romo
504 - Delhomme
134 - Rivers
125 - Kitna
71 - Young
59 - Jackson
31 - Brady
26 - Croyle
25 - Palmer
13 - Leinart
4 - Hasselbeck
3 - A. Smith
1 - Huard
1 - Redman
0 - McCown
0 - Clemens
Scores under 10 points
689 - Schaub (5.95)
8 - Russell (5.15)
6 - T. Smith (.10)
Scores under 20 points
282 - Garrard (13.10)
193 - Orton (12.10)
104 - Pennington (13.05)
33 - Edwards (18.45)
5 - Grossman (14.20)
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
What does this mean? Even if people have Brees on a bye, they likely have another QB, yes/no? ROmo owners are still alive? That's right they all took Warner...how many teams that are alive have Warner? I don't have him.
Challenge Everything
Footballguy
I did it. All of the scores from week 1 - week 9 are the same. I am assuming the scores are from week 9 and are just filling in the rest. It says I am at 158.30 which should be enough. Next week is when I am going to be worried due to Barber and Portis on bye. Maybe the emergence of Rice will help out though.
Das Boot
Footballguy
And if he's slowed or goes out due to his hammy, Cooley will put up numbers. He probably will anyway.
apalmer
Footballguy
Yeah, where's LHucks and his "Warner is a waste of money" thread?
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
The stats above don't mean much, just thought I'd post them. Here are the QB's over 20 points:2109 - Warner (29.10)
885 - Cutler (24.50)
519 - Ryan (23.10)
308 - McNabb (29.05)
156 - Garcia (21.95)
132 - Rodgers (21.80)
76 - E. Manning (24.35)
28 - Anderson (22.75)
11 - Bulger (22.50)
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
Actually only about 2/3rds of the Romo owners took Warner. Romo's late bye combined with uncertainty about whether Warner would still be starting in week 10 didnt make a Romo-Warner combo a slam dunk.Warner is currently on 51.4% of teams still alive.
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
ctriopelle
Footballguy
I would take from this that only 9 of the 37 QB's available have decent scores this week, with 3 left to go. Because of that, having a low QB score this week isn't the slam dunk killer it would usually be assumed to be.
Das Boot
Footballguy
I believe lhucks is "on vacation" from FBGs right now.I don't even bother anymore bumping his poll where he tried to prove Warner was a waste of $5 in the contest.
lhucks is spectacularly wrong fairly often - but good luck ever getting him to admit it - probably because he doesn't think he ever is wrong.
I'm sure he'll convince himself he was right about Warner too.
Das Boot
Footballguy
As a reminder:
From week 14 through week 16, the top 250 teams will score points each week. The winner will be the team that accumulates the most total points in these 3 weeks. All 250 teams that advance to the final will have their scores reset so only the results from weeks 14 through 16 will count.
The weekly cutoffs are as follows:
Week 1 trim to 12,000 teams (all advance if we have less entries)
Week 2 trim to 10,000 teams
Week 3 trim to 8,500 teams
Week 4 trim to 7,250 teams
Week 5 trim to 6,100 teams
Week 6 trim to 5,000 teams
Week 7 trim to 4,000 teams
Week 8 trim to 3,100 teams
Week 9 trim to 2,300 teams
Week 10 trim to 1,600 teams
Week 11 trim to 1,000 teams
Week 12 trim to 500 teams
Week 13 trim to 250 teams
From week 14 through week 16, the top 250 teams will score points each week. The winner will be the team that accumulates the most total points in these 3 weeks. All 250 teams that advance to the final will have their scores reset so only the results from weeks 14 through 16 will count.
The weekly cutoffs are as follows:
Week 1 trim to 12,000 teams (all advance if we have less entries)
Week 2 trim to 10,000 teams
Week 3 trim to 8,500 teams
Week 4 trim to 7,250 teams
Week 5 trim to 6,100 teams
Week 6 trim to 5,000 teams
Week 7 trim to 4,000 teams
Week 8 trim to 3,100 teams
Week 9 trim to 2,300 teams
Week 10 trim to 1,600 teams
Week 11 trim to 1,000 teams
Week 12 trim to 500 teams
Week 13 trim to 250 teams
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I think LHucks might be away for awhile...he mentioned it when we redrafted in the Survivor contest.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
FYI the cutoff isn't "projected" at 124, that is where the cutoff was as of the end of the afternoon games, based on the database entries at fantasystar. It will go up from there based on tonight as well as tomorrow.
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
If the winning team from this contest has Warner, he'd still demonstrate why that team would have better off spending the $5 on a better kicker or something.
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Das Boot
Footballguy
I'm sure if Drinen were to whip together some stats showing the correlation between choosing Warner and doing well in the contest to date, the correlation would be extremely strong.
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180 plus or minus with S Holmes (-8.7) and Portis (-19.8) still to play. Survived without the Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and a no-show from Brandon Marshall.
Curious as to how many teams with both S Smith and Marshall get eliminated this week.
Curious as to how many teams with both S Smith and Marshall get eliminated this week.
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