2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[HULLOBUDMAN]

barely hanging on tonight. looks like I might need Randle-El to do something tomorrow night.

 

[fbomb]

Where are you getting the numbers for the players today? I know all of you are not adding them up yourselves. I am curious where I stand.

QB - Matt Schaub - 13

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

QB - Matt Ryan - 4

RB - Marion Barber - 40

RB - Clinton Portis - 33

RB - Maurice Morris - 11

RB - Ray Rice - 4

RB - Steve Slaton - 1

WR - Larry Fitzgerald - 35

WR - Calvin Johnson - 25

WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23

WR - Ted Ginn - 13

WR - Darrell Jackson - 5

WR - Muhsin Muhammad - 5

WR - Nate Washington - 3

TE - Randy McMichael - 12

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe - 4

PK - Matt Stover - 2

PK - Mike Nugent - 1

TD - Minnesota Vikings - 8

TD - New Orleans Saints - 2

TD - St. Louis Rams - 1

Sign up at FantasyStar and put your players in the Matrix.Fantasy Star

The Matrix has you...

I did it. All of the scores from week 1 - week 9 are the same. I am assuming the scores are from week 9 and are just filling in the rest. It says I am at 158.30 which should be enough. Next week is when I am going to be worried due to Barber and Portis on bye. Maybe the emergence of Rice will help out though.

This happens if you enter your team after at least one week has already been played. The note below is on the site, and clicking the column header for each week will take care of this for you.* If your previous weekly scores haven't processed, click on the column header labeled W1, W2 etc..*

 

[Das Boot]

180 plus or minus with S Holmes (-8.7) and Portis (-19.8) still to play. Survived without the Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and a no-show from Brandon Marshall.Curious as to how many teams with both S Smith and Marshall get eliminated this week.

My guess is not too many.Drinen wrote an article on another site that showed how teams that had some scrub WR (C Taylor I think?) who hasn't scored at all this year were still surviving in very high numbers - the point being that owners who played the contest well were paying attention to Seattle's WR situation, and with that level of attention and knowledge probably (actually provably did) put together better teams.So I'd guess the same dynamic is in play with teams that drafted Smith and Marshall - I'm sure some will bow out this week, but probably most of them will survive because they are strong in other positions.Just a guess.

 

[Challenge Everything]

Where are you getting the numbers for the players today? I know all of you are not adding them up yourselves. I am curious where I stand.

QB - Matt Schaub - 13

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

QB - Matt Ryan - 4

RB - Marion Barber - 40

RB - Clinton Portis - 33

RB - Maurice Morris - 11

RB - Ray Rice - 4

RB - Steve Slaton - 1

WR - Larry Fitzgerald - 35

WR - Calvin Johnson - 25

WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23

WR - Ted Ginn - 13

WR - Darrell Jackson - 5

WR - Muhsin Muhammad - 5

WR - Nate Washington - 3

TE - Randy McMichael - 12

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe - 4

PK - Matt Stover - 2

PK - Mike Nugent - 1

TD - Minnesota Vikings - 8

TD - New Orleans Saints - 2

TD - St. Louis Rams - 1

Sign up at FantasyStar and put your players in the Matrix.Fantasy Star

The Matrix has you...

I did it. All of the scores from week 1 - week 9 are the same. I am assuming the scores are from week 9 and are just filling in the rest. It says I am at 158.30 which should be enough. Next week is when I am going to be worried due to Barber and Portis on bye. Maybe the emergence of Rice will help out though.

This happens if you enter your team after at least one week has already been played. The note below is on the site, and clicking the column header for each week will take care of this for you.* If your previous weekly scores haven't processed, click on the column header labeled W1, W2 etc..*

 

[Erin Go Bragh]

Done at 155.00.

 

[nzranger]

180 plus or minus with S Holmes (-8.7) and Portis (-19.8) still to play. Survived without the Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and a no-show from Brandon Marshall.Curious as to how many teams with both S Smith and Marshall get eliminated this week.

My guess is not too many.Drinen wrote an article on another site that showed how teams that had some scrub WR (C Taylor I think?) who hasn't scored at all this year were still surviving in very high numbers - the point being that owners who played the contest well were paying attention to Seattle's WR situation, and with that level of attention and knowledge probably (actually provably did) put together better teams.So I'd guess the same dynamic is in play with teams that drafted Smith and Marshall - I'm sure some will bow out this week, but probably most of them will survive because they are strong in other positions.Just a guess.

i'm done. 120.5.Marshall/Sjax/Witten killed me. (yes, smith on bye)

 

[Road Warriors]

142.9 with Santonio (-4.4) and Cooley ( -4.9 ) left

Hows the Sunday cut looking?

 

[a_troll00]

Done at 161.8. That should get my squad on to week 10

 

[HellToupee]

146.7 w/Santonio(-8.7) & Big Ben(-24.5)

 

[Sheriff66]

142.9 with Santonio (-4.4) and Cooley ( -4.9 ) leftHows the Sunday cut looking?

Fantasystar says 124.10 right now156.80 with Nate Washington needing to score more than 3.20 to count.

 

[ctriopelle]

Fantasystar pre-MNF cutoff value is showing 125.8. Sorry it took so long, I wait until the last stat update to make sure I get everything in the last few minutes of play. If this is accurate, looks like a lower than expected cutoff this week. We'll see how we match to the Turk!

 

[kroyrunner89]

I'm at about 149 so I should be advancing. This really helps to advance this week, I'm sure we'll lose some more Witten owners and maybe some of the Westbrook owners, this should make me much more unique

 

[joffer]

need a lot of help from Santonio and Antwaan manana

 

[bonesman]

 

[saintfool]

i am sitting at 108 right now with marvin harrison, portis, randel el, and suisham. current cutoff projected at 124. i think i am going to need a bit of luck here.

FYI the cutoff isn't "projected" at 124, that is where the cutoff was as of the end of the afternoon games, based on the database entries at fantasystar. It will go up from there based on tonight as well as tomorrow.

oh, i know. i am just hoping it doesn't get too far away from me.

 

[scottybo]

118.5 with Holmes (-4.6), Portis (-13.2) and Moss (-4.6) left.

 

[831hoops]

148 + Portis

 

[Phil Elliott]

142.8 with Ward (-8) tomorrow....Hope that's good enough for another week.

 

[FUBAR]

I'm at work and can't see to find the fantasystar site, all I know is my WRs killed me this week. Hopefully a good QB and RBs will make up for it.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

All 250 teams that advance to the final will have their scores reset so only the results from weeks 14 through 16 will count.

I don't understand why it says this in the rules. The scores reset every week.Did this rule change over the years? This is my first go-round in the contest.

 

[Aussie Cowboy]

143.10 with Santana Moss (-4.6) and Willie Parker (-4.4) to come.

I thought I was toast this week with Delhomme, Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Vincent Jackson, Nedney and Carolina D on a bye, but it looks like I might just scrape through.

GB Ray Rice, Derrick Ward, Donald Driver and the Jets D showing up when I needed it.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Unofficial pre-MNF cut = 128.00

 

[Giantseasonticketholder]

Unofficial pre-MNF cut = 128.00

C'mon Holmes, Portis and Suisham!!

 

[apalmer]

All 250 teams that advance to the final will have their scores reset so only the results from weeks 14 through 16 will count.

I don't understand why it says this in the rules. The scores reset every week.Did this rule change over the years? This is my first go-round in the contest.

It's just clarification, since the scores do not reset after Week 13.

 

[apalmer]

Unofficial pre-MNF cut = 128.00

150 with FWP & Santana (-5.9 at WR or 6.7 at Flex). Safe enough that I can cheer for the Steelers to shut Moss down.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Live owner percentages for tonight's players:

Portis - 31.6

Holmes - 18.3

Moss - 17.5

Randle El - 12.9

Suisham - 12.2

Cooley - 11.8

Parker - 9.3

Miller - 5.8

Campbell - 5.0

Betts - 4.4

PIT D - 4.1

Reed - 3.1

Sweed - 2.6

Roethlisberger - 2.4

Wilson - 2.3

Ward - 1.7

Washington - 1.7

WAS D - 1.2

Mendenhall - 1.1

Kelly - 0.3

Thomas - 0.1

Looking at those figures, it won't be QB's, K's, or D's that raise the cutoff by much. Cutoff should shoot up quite a decent amount with good games from RB's, WR's and TE's.

 

[Sol D]

147 pts with some guys still going. This should be enough to move on... see ya next week. 98.3% chance to win the whole thing?

Those odds were just for this week, not for the whole contest.

I was kidding! It was a joke!

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

:says prayer for uber-stud Kyle Orton's ankle in Week 10:

 

[blend]

148.9 with Cooley -4.6 to go.

Think I'll make it through to Week 10. woo-hoo!

 

[Angry Beavers]

133.95 + whatever i can get from Suisham;

comeon 40ys fieldgoals.........

 

[Dirty Weasel]

There are 981 remaining Portis owners. Of those 981...

- 787 also have Slaton

- 696 also have Warner

- 542 also have Rice

- 482 also have Warner and Slaton

- 447 also have Slaton and Rice

- 383 also have Warner and Rice

- 325 also have Warner, Slaton, and Rice

I fall into the group that owns Warner, Slaton and Rice. It looks as though a large portion of the Portis owners may not need him to score alot of points to advance. I'm already sitting at 166.40, so I am hoping he simply doesn't get injured before his bye week. Ten carries for 50 yards and no TD's would be fine by me.

 

[apalmer]

There are 981 remaining Portis owners. Of those 981...- 787 also have Slaton- 696 also have Warner- 542 also have Rice- 482 also have Warner and Slaton- 447 also have Slaton and Rice- 383 also have Warner and Rice- 325 also have Warner, Slaton, and RiceI fall into the group that owns Warner, Slaton and Rice. It looks as though a large portion of the Portis owners may not need him to score alot of points to advance. I'm already sitting at 166.40, so I am hoping he simply doesn't get injured before his bye week. Ten carries for 50 yards and no TD's would be fine by me.

Works for me. In fact, I wouldn't mind if the Redskins sat him out so he can get well-rested for Week 11.Signed,Mike Tomlin

 

[[icon]]

Sitting around 160 with Portis still to go.

 

[Marauder]

133.9 with Portis (-13.9) and all of Suisham's points. Hopefully we'll get some field goals tonight.

 

[FinHead]

139 w/ Portis, Randle-El, and Cooley left to play.

Next week will be brutal w/ the Cowboys and Redskins on their bye week

 

[levinakl]

definitely my first time sweating it out....and I'll be sweating it tonight bigtime..... damn Gaffney for dropping that sure TD last night!!!! C'mon Zorn, ball control and TD's for Portis!!! (he can rest next week on his bye week)

QB - Warner - 29.1

RB - Slaton - 15.8

RB - Grant - 8.6

WR - TO - 14.6

WR - Cotchery - 13

WR - Northcutt - 6.9

TE - Winslow - 13.9

Flex - Fasano - 6.7 (to hopefully be replaced by Portis in a BIG way)

PK - Hanson/Lindell - 8

D - Buffalo - 8

Unused - Ryan, R. Williams, Bradshaw, Gaffney, Ja. Jones, Keller, GB Defense)

Bye week - Brees, S. Smith, Nedney (missing Smith here obviously was a killer )

Total - 124.6

 

[rick6668]

I'm all done.

All my studs did nothing or on a bye killed me.

Brees - bye, Schaub - 5.95, Barber - 5.9, Westbrook 12.6, Marshall 4.6, S. Smith - bye

Good luck to all who are still in.

 

[panhead55]

This week I was missing Brees, S. Smith, Colston and SD def. I'm at 137.40 with fingers crossed.

 

[Firekaps]

184.7 with Portis (-19.1). Owen Daniels, Ray Rice and CJ3.

Not sure I can win the thing as I seem to have a very similar team to everyone else...but it's beena fun ride.

Tough week next week with CP on bye, but he's the only one on my team (+ Betts) who has not had a bye yet...

 

[Phil Elliott]

Live owner percentages for tonight's playersortis - 31.6Holmes - 18.3Moss - 17.5Randle El - 12.9Suisham - 12.2Cooley - 11.8Parker - 9.3Miller - 5.8Campbell - 5.0Betts - 4.4PIT D - 4.1Reed - 3.1Sweed - 2.6Roethlisberger - 2.4Wilson - 2.3Ward - 1.7Washington - 1.7WAS D - 1.2Mendenhall - 1.1Kelly - 0.3Thomas - 0.1Looking at those figures, it won't be QB's, K's, or D's that raise the cutoff by much. Cutoff should shoot up quite a decent amount with good games from RB's, WR's and TE's.

In the Ward 1.7%

 

[Otis]

180 plus or minus with S Holmes (-8.7) and Portis (-19.8) still to play. Survived without the Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and a no-show from Brandon Marshall.Curious as to how many teams with both S Smith and Marshall get eliminated this week.

My guess is not too many.Drinen wrote an article on another site that showed how teams that had some scrub WR (C Taylor I think?) who hasn't scored at all this year were still surviving in very high numbers - the point being that owners who played the contest well were paying attention to Seattle's WR situation, and with that level of attention and knowledge probably (actually provably did) put together better teams.So I'd guess the same dynamic is in play with teams that drafted Smith and Marshall - I'm sure some will bow out this week, but probably most of them will survive because they are strong in other positions.Just a guess.

I've got both and I'm in serious trouble. I think I'm only like 15 points about the current projected cutoff, not accounting for tonight. I guess if it's a low scoring night I still have a chance.My RB position was tough this week, with Bush and Gore both on BYE weeks. Ray Rice came through with a nice game, and Slaton was decent, but the rest of my team just may not get it done.I knew coming in that week 9 would be my toughest hurdle. If I can get past this I think I have as good a shot as anyone.

Aaron Rodgers  21.80Ray Rice 19.10Steve Slaton 15.80Anquan Boldin 21.30Mark Bradley 18.35Jerricho Cotchery 13.00Desmond Clark 9.60Dustin Keller 4.90Joe Nedney 0.00N.Y. Jets Defense 17.00Total Points: 140.85Projected Cutoff: 125.80

 

[Dirty Weasel]

OK, so I have a lot more to say about the comments from BuckeyeArt and others. But what I'm about to show you might change the nature of the conversation somewhat, so I'll hold off.

I spent some time working on a simulation engine that will "play" the week's games 1000 times and then figure out how many of those 1000 weeks result in advancement for each contest team.

Note that, unlike the other set of power rankings, these are for this week only, and completely ignore future weeks.

Here it is.

I'll probably keep tweaking it in the coming weeks, so it should probably be considered beta, but I think it's solid enough to get your thoughts on it.

I will be very curious to see where the 800 eliminated teams come from this week.731 - 90-99.9% survival probability

771 - 80-89.9% survival probability

560 - 70-79.9% survival probability

382 - 60-69.9% survival probability

260 - 50-59.9% survival probability

155 - 40-49.9% survival probability

120 - 30-39.9% survival probability

76 - 20-29.9% survival probability

30 - 10-19.9% survival probability

21 - 0.4-9.9% survival probability

 

[Alias]

can someone post the link to the site I registered on to track my stats? (fantasy star or something I think)

 

[Alias]

nvr mind:

http://thefantasystar.com/fbg.php

 

[Jayrod]

I should be safe at 150 with N. Washington (-4.3) my only guy left. This was to be my biggest test without Brees, Steve Smith, Shockey and Kasay.

Rackers came through big as my only kicker, Warner saved Schaub, Fitz was adequate, Utecht contributed and my RB's were great even though Barber was down (Slaton, Rice & CJ3).

My team isn't very unique, but fairly strong at all positions. Only loose Barber next week and he hasn't contributed in two weeks anyway.

 

[Marvelous]

Unofficial pre-MNF cut = 128.00

C'mon Holmes, Portis and Suisham!!

I need big nights from Portis, Moss, and Randle El so I can get eliminated next week during the Redskin's bye.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I have 148 with no one left to play. I was concerned about losing Marion Barber in week 10, but Dallas has been so awful, Barber hasn't even been helping me much anyway these days.

My team - because I know y'all are just dieing to know

Jake Delhomme

David Garrard

Kurt Warner

Marion Barber

Thomas Jones

Steve Slaton

Ricky Williams

Fred Taylor

Anquan Boldin

Patrick Crayton

Donald Driver

Jabar Gaffney

Brandon Marshall

Muhsin Muhammad

David Patten

Dustin Keller

Zach Miller

Ben Utecht

Kris Brown

Olindo Mare

Buffalo Defense

Minnesota Defense

 

[meeka]

10 points behind the cut. Moss (-4.8), FWP (-4.5) and Cooley (-4.3) still to play. I need 2 of them to have big games. I do not think that Moss will even play, so I think it is curtains for me this year.

 

[Alias]

My team rocks...165.90 (-8.70 for Holmes)

 

[SDJohnny]

:(