The Contest Querier is a wondrous thing.Keep the stats coming.
Thanks for those links apalmer, I didn't know they existed.
Those are perfect.OK. So I know you're already probably thinking about it. The next obvious step is to predict the final 250 using this new simulation program. What are our chances of advancing the rest of the way?Code:Surv% N Surv Pct --------------------------- 0-- 9 21 0 0.0 10--19 30 5 16.7 20--29 76 16 21.1 30--39 120 36 30.0 40--49 155 74 47.7 50--59 260 157 60.4 60--69 382 257 67.3 70--79 560 429 76.6 80--89 771 650 84.3 90--99 731 681 93.2
missed the cut here by less than 1 point (134.15). drat. it was a pretty good run nonetheless.
No doubt. This week I made the cut by 9 points, and the last two weeks I made the cut by two points.my team keeps squeaking by.
Really great and impressive results. It would be cool to see a prediction for the final 250.Those are perfect.OK. So I know you're already probably thinking about it. The next obvious step is to predict the final 250 using this new simulation program. What are our chances of advancing the rest of the way?Code:Surv% N Surv Pct --------------------------- 0-- 9 21 0 0.0 10--19 30 5 16.7 20--29 76 16 21.1 30--39 120 36 30.0 40--49 155 74 47.7 50--59 260 157 60.4 60--69 382 257 67.3 70--79 560 429 76.6 80--89 771 650 84.3 90--99 731 681 93.2
Same here... still hanging on without a kicker all year (Coutu + Nugent). Next year I will have 3 $1 kickers, no exceptions.With 2K left I am sure there are others in the same predicament, but I have gone the whole year without a kicker (Nugent). I thought I could get by the bye week with just one on my roster, but I am hanging by a thread each week due to his injury. Definitely a lesson learned for next year; I just need him back asap!
True dat.Example: Only 34 teams left with Romo and Orton. Of these, 22 also have Warner, like me.The Contest Querier is a wondrous thing.Keep the stats coming.
Thanks for those links apalmer, I didn't know they existed.
I'm done with byes and continue forward with:QB - Drew Brees - 23QB - Jay Cutler - 14RB - Maurice Jones-Drew - 34RB - Thomas Jones - 21RB - Matt Forte - 20RB - Ray Rice - 4RB - Steve Slaton - 1WR - Marques Colston - 30WR - Steve Smith - 23WR - Nate Burleson - 18WR - Courtney Taylor - 3WR - Early Doucet - 3WR - Antonio Bryant - 2WR - Miles Austin - 1WR - Steve Breaston - 1WR - Craig Davis - 1TE - Kellen Winslow - 28TE - John Carlson - 4PK - Stephen Gostkowski - 5PK - Lawrence Tynes - 2TD - San Diego Chargers - 8TD - Seattle Seahawks - 4I'm a little thin at WR. Hopefully Colston can step it up.This week I was missing Brees, S. Smith, Colston and SD def. I'm at 137.40 with fingers crossed.
How many of those took Warner as a cheap backup?David Yudkin said:Still 22 teams alive that had Tom Brady.
Looks like 16 of them have Warner as a backup. Not sure who the other 6 Brady owners have.How many of those took Warner as a cheap backup?David Yudkin said:Still 22 teams alive that had Tom Brady.
I have the Schaub/Warner combo as well, but backed them up with Delhomme. He has yet to count for me, but I'm glad to have that option down the stretch. Schaub/Warner was a risky combo due to age/injury in my opinion(although Jake hasn't exactly been an iron man over the years either).I was running red hot with the Schaub/Warner combo, but now I'm left with just Warner...hopefully he can keep it going.
I've wondered about the optimal structure for teams in this contest. Is it better to have 2 QBs or 3 QBs? How many RBs, WRs, TEs, etc. should you have on your roster?Through the end of week 9, 18.22% of all teams have survived. Of the total teams (all teams who entered the contest), 367 teams only had 1 QB. Of these teams only 7 teams (1.91%) survived through week 9. 4,787 teams started with 2 QBs, and 738 (15.42%) survived through week 9 -- compared to a survival rate of 18.22% for all teams -- so the 2-QB strategy was less than optimal.apalmer said:The Contest Querier is a wondrous thing.beto said:Keep the stats coming.
Thanks for those links apalmer, I didn't know they existed.
My theory is that the three QB system is critical every season in this format. QB is often your highest-scoring position. So if you are only relying on one or two QBs, you could be missing out on a lot of points every week at that position.I've wondered about the optimal structure for teams in this contest. Is it better to have 2 QBs or 3 QBs? How many RBs, WRs, TEs, etc. should you have on your roster?Through the end of week 9, 18.22% of all teams have survived. Of the total teams (all teams who entered the contest), 367 teams only had 1 QB. Of these teams only 7 teams (1.91%) survived through week 9. 4,787 teams started with 2 QBs, and 738 (15.42%) survived through week 9 -- compared to a survival rate of 18.22% for all teams -- so the 2-QB strategy was less than optimal.apalmer said:The Contest Querier is a wondrous thing.beto said:Keep the stats coming.
Thanks for those links apalmer, I didn't know they existed.
6,380 teams started with 3 QBs, and 1435 (22.49%) survived through week 9. There were 1,116 teams that started with 4 or more QBs on the roster, and only 125 (11.20%) of these teams survived through week 9.
So the "3-QB" strategy is clearly the best strategy -- at least so far for this year.
Somewhere in this thread (20 or 30 pages ago), Doug did a statistical analysis of the "optimal" roster. As I recall, at that point the stats showed the best breakdown was 3 QB, 6 RBs, 7 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 Ks, and 2 Ds. Personally, I still like 3 K's and 3 D's to go with my 3 QB's, just because I think a $1 purchase there gets better results than anywhere else (at least after you've already rostered Breston and Slaton).I've wondered about the optimal structure for teams in this contest. Is it better to have 2 QBs or 3 QBs? How many RBs, WRs, TEs, etc. should you have on your roster?Through the end of week 9, 18.22% of all teams have survived. Of the total teams (all teams who entered the contest), 367 teams only had 1 QB. Of these teams only 7 teams (1.91%) survived through week 9. 4,787 teams started with 2 QBs, and 738 (15.42%) survived through week 9 -- compared to a survival rate of 18.22% for all teams -- so the 2-QB strategy was less than optimal.apalmer said:The Contest Querier is a wondrous thing.beto said:Keep the stats coming.
Thanks for those links apalmer, I didn't know they existed.
6,380 teams started with 3 QBs, and 1435 (22.49%) survived through week 9. There were 1,116 teams that started with 4 or more QBs on the roster, and only 125 (11.20%) of these teams survived through week 9.
So the "3-QB" strategy is clearly the best strategy -- at least so far for this year.
Similarly, for RBs, 731 teams started with 1-3 RBs, 1695 teams had 4 RBs, 4051 teams had 5 RBs, 4134 teams had 6 RBs, 1536 teams had 7 RBs, and 503 teams had 8 or more RBs.Teams with 6 RBs have the highest survival rate through week 9 (23.37%), followed by 19.35% for teams with 5 RBs, and a 19.34% survival rate for teams with 7 RBs.apalmer said:The Contest Querier is a wondrous thing.beto said:Keep the stats coming.
Thanks for those links apalmer, I didn't know they existed.
Says the guy with neither Portis or Barber. There are lots of folks with ample depth to survive without one of those two. For example, I have DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Slaton and Ricky Williams who have all scored well for me in the past. Hoping that missing Portis will not be the death of my squad.2300 teams left and 700 to get cut this week. Of the teams left, 777 have Portis and 667 have Barber (89 have both!). That's a whopping 59% of the teams still alive that have at least one of those two guys on bye this week. Sure would be nice to see those teams absorb a big chunk of the cut.
Actually, also says the guys who own one of them as well. It's always good to have your stud be as unique as possible, so you'd like to hope you can survive their bye while many of those who also picked them don't make it. I would have been sitting pretty with Bush and Slayton as my RB starters this week, but unfortunately, I am left with just Ricky Weed to fill my RB2 slot (Portis in my 4th RB). Definitely hoping to get some nice production out of 3 of my 5 active WR's and possibly fill the flex strong with either Fasano or Winslow. Week 10 was always my cross the fingers week, but unfortunately missing one of my top RB's may put me at serious risk. I'm anxiously looking forward to the latest advancement predictor, and hope I'm at least in the top half this week.Says the guy with neither Portis or Barber. There are lots of folks with ample depth to survive without one of those two. For example, I have DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Slaton and Ricky Williams who have all scored well for me in the past. Hoping that missing Portis will not be the death of my squad.2300 teams left and 700 to get cut this week. Of the teams left, 777 have Portis and 667 have Barber (89 have both!). That's a whopping 59% of the teams still alive that have at least one of those two guys on bye this week. Sure would be nice to see those teams absorb a big chunk of the cut.
I'm one. Why is this news?Only 10 teams left with this combo:Warner+Turner+AndreJohnson
At least 3 kickers and at least 3 TE's. I have been going with Stover only (Nugent) and only Visanthe Shiancoe (McMichael). I doubt many have Shiancoe left but with Portis and Barber on bye... if he has a great week this week against the Packers... that would help me out greatly.Worm said:Same here... still hanging on without a kicker all year (Coutu + Nugent). Next year I will have 3 $1 kickers, no exceptions.Sweet Love said:With 2K left I am sure there are others in the same predicament, but I have gone the whole year without a kicker (Nugent). I thought I could get by the bye week with just one on my roster, but I am hanging by a thread each week due to his injury. Definitely a lesson learned for next year; I just need him back asap!
No it would not. (I am one of the 89)2300 teams left and 700 to get cut this week. Of the teams left, 777 have Portis and 667 have Barber (89 have both!). That's a whopping 59% of the teams still alive that have at least one of those two guys on bye this week. Sure would be nice to see those teams absorb a big chunk of the cut.
Sorry, but I believe that Demetrius Williams is on IRUsed 9 times - Used 8 times - Used 7 times - Walter, WittenUsed 6 times - Brees, MBIII, BJacobs, CJ3, CalJohnson, Marshall, CotcheryUsed 5 times - Used 4 times - Slaton, Keller, BuffaloUsed 3 times - Orton, Hanson, Lindell, Suisham, SaintsUsed 2 times - Gaffney, LionsUsed 1 times - RRice, CoTaylor(!), DemWilliams(BAL)Used 0 times - Week 10 will be a bit tough without Barber and Witten... but at least, as others have stated, Barber hasn't counted recently and Witten is hurt. Brees better play well as I'll be rolling with one QB. I've used all three K three times, and won't have Suisham this week.Overall, my team has scored well but was really down Week 9. I don't think I'm unique enough to pull it off and I don't have Warner. My only shot is Brandon Jacobs (5%) rolling over a tough schedule and Demetrius Williams suddenly thinking he's Randy Moss circa 2007... he's owned by a whopping 1.2% right now!
just came back to correct myself for missing that somehow this weekwasn't really counting on him anyway... I will always remember the 70 yard TD that got him to score for me one week though!Sorry, but I believe that Demetrius Williams is on IRUsed 9 times - Used 8 times - Used 7 times - Walter, WittenUsed 6 times - Brees, MBIII, BJacobs, CJ3, CalJohnson, Marshall, CotcheryUsed 5 times - Used 4 times - Slaton, Keller, BuffaloUsed 3 times - Orton, Hanson, Lindell, Suisham, SaintsUsed 2 times - Gaffney, LionsUsed 1 times - RRice, CoTaylor(!), DemWilliams(BAL)Used 0 times - Week 10 will be a bit tough without Barber and Witten... but at least, as others have stated, Barber hasn't counted recently and Witten is hurt. Brees better play well as I'll be rolling with one QB. I've used all three K three times, and won't have Suisham this week.Overall, my team has scored well but was really down Week 9. I don't think I'm unique enough to pull it off and I don't have Warner. My only shot is Brandon Jacobs (5%) rolling over a tough schedule and Demetrius Williams suddenly thinking he's Randy Moss circa 2007... he's owned by a whopping 1.2% right now!
I'm sure there are, but it would still be nice to weed out the others. There were lots of folks with enough depth to survive LT's slow start and to survive Week 7 with no QB when they were relying on Romo/Warner. But it sure was nice to get rid of some who weren't so that having Romo/Warner/LT down the stretch can be an advantage rather than the norm.Says the guy with neither Portis or Barber. There are lots of folks with ample depth to survive without one of those two. For example, I have DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Slaton and Ricky Williams who have all scored well for me in the past. Hoping that missing Portis will not be the death of my squad.2300 teams left and 700 to get cut this week. Of the teams left, 777 have Portis and 667 have Barber (89 have both!). That's a whopping 59% of the teams still alive that have at least one of those two guys on bye this week. Sure would be nice to see those teams absorb a big chunk of the cut.
Last week there were 2.Until last week, every team that had Brees, Westbrook, Portis, and Marshall was still alive. Now, there's only 1 left.![]()
Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70 27.05 35.05 21.10 34.70 10.55 32.35 0.00 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00 24.55 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05 28.90 Marion Barber $40 23.60 25.40 23.20 4.70 10.20 28.80 17.80 13.00 4.70 Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00 13.60 Ryan Torain $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60 19.10 Jamaal Charles $2 4.40 2.70 7.70 1.80 6.00 0.00 6.30 5.40 10.60 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60 15.80 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00 4.70 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10 0.00 Greg Jennings $22 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 19.40 6.20 0.00 10.90 Anthony Gonzalez $14 9.80 22.70 5.70 0.00 1.30 7.30 12.20 6.70 21.50 Donnie Avery $5 0.00 0.00 5.40 14.90 0.00 10.80 18.20 28.20 5.60 James Jones $5 0.00 12.90 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sinorice Moss $2 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Chris Cooley $19 2.20 14.70 17.70 8.80 28.90 13.20 9.20 16.40 19.80 Leonard Pope $5 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $5 6.00 14.00 10.00 0.00 17.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00 12.00 Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00 15.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 4.00 0.00 11.00 Carolina Panthers $3 9.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00
Simulation-based week 10 survival probability estimates
A few minor tweaks. More to say later if I can find the time.
Can't get enough of the different stat derivations that you are coming up with...Simulation-based week 10 survival probability estimates
A few minor tweaks. More to say later if I can find the time.