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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

Last two weeks have been nail biters, getting past the cut by a point or so.

I don't think my team is very unique at this point, so I'll need my relatively unique players, like ADP and Greg Jennings, to step up even more.

Used 8 times: Jennings

Used 7 times: Peterson, Slaton, B. Marshall

Used 6 times: Cotchery

Used 5 times: D. Henderson, Shockey, Minn D

Used 4 times: Romo, Warner, Ricky Williams, R. Rice, Keller, Lindell, Buff D

Used 3 times: Kaeding

Used 2 times: Hardy, C. Baker, K. Brown

Used 1 time: Delhomme, McFadden, J. Hill

Only one use out of Jason Hill is acceptable, particulary since he saved me last week, but I'm pretty disappointed with Delhomme. McFadden has been a complete waste of $29 so far. It might help if he could stop stubbing his toes.

 
Used 9 times - none

Used 8 times - none

Used 7 times - Tomlinson

Used 6 times - Portis, Slaton, Megatron, Walter, Fasano, Prater

Used 5 times - Romo, Holmes, DeSean, Philly D

Used 4 times - Warner, Ginn, Shockey, Buffalo D

Used 3 times - RRice, Meachem, K Brown

Used 2 times - none

Used 1 time - Bradshaw, Keller

Used 0 times - Ri Williams, J Hester

 
Code:
Surv%	  N   Surv	Pct ---------------------------  0-- 9	21	 0	 0.0 10--19	30	 5	16.7 20--29	76	16	21.1 30--39   120	36	30.0 40--49   155	74	47.7 50--59   260   157	60.4 60--69   382   257	67.3 70--79   560   429	76.6 80--89   771   650	84.3 90--99   731   681	93.2
Those are perfect.OK. So I know you're already probably thinking about it. The next obvious step is to predict the final 250 using this new simulation program. What are our chances of advancing the rest of the way?
 
As I suspected, I'm out finally. I couldn't win without both Romo and Brees. That'll teach me to draft only two QB's.

 
Used 8 times: Welker

Used 7 times: Warner

Used 6 times: LBJ, Cotchery, Clark

Used 5 times: T. Jones, Slaton, Marshall, Hanson, Dallas D

Used 4 times: MJD, Chambers, Ginn, Miami D

Used 3 times: R. Rice, Keller, Prater

Used 2 times: R. Williams, Bradshaw,

Used 1 time: Garrard, K. Brown

Used 0 Times: Booker

Week 9 = 159.6 :goodposting:

 
Code:
Surv%	  N   Surv	Pct ---------------------------  0-- 9	21	 0	 0.0 10--19	30	 5	16.7 20--29	76	16	21.1 30--39   120	36	30.0 40--49   155	74	47.7 50--59   260   157	60.4 60--69   382   257	67.3 70--79   560   429	76.6 80--89   771   650	84.3 90--99   731   681	93.2
Those are perfect.OK. So I know you're already probably thinking about it. The next obvious step is to predict the final 250 using this new simulation program. What are our chances of advancing the rest of the way?
Really great and impressive results. It would be cool to see a prediction for the final 250.
 
Paqrtially updated after week nine --- Summary of my team (for my information and for the die-hard's entertainment)

QBs - McNabb going solo for a few weeks

McNabb 9.9% owned and 23.2% alive - used five times 111.75 pts ave 22.35

Schaub 22.2% owned and 30.9% alive - used four times 123.5 pts ave 30.88

RBs - Great Depth

Clinton Portis 31.6% owned and 42.6% alive - used seven times 142.6 pts ave 20.4 Week 10 Bye

DeA Williams 15.9% owned and 36.7% alive - used three times 62.1 pts ave 20.7

Chris Johnson 30.4% owned and 39.3% alive - used six times 121.2 pts ave 20.2

Rasta Williams 60.0% owned and 29.9% alive - used once 12.9 pts ave 12.9

Ray Rice 53.6% owned and 29.8% alive - used three times 41.1 pts ave 13.7

Steve Slaton 81.1% owned and 35.2% alive - used four times 80.5 pts ave 20.1

WRs - This line-up has been really strong

Calvin Johnson 35.3% owned and 38.6% alive - used six times 129.5 pts ave 21.6

Sant Holmes 18.3% owned and 23.9% alive - used three times 37.9 pts ave 12.6 back on board

Bran Marshall 44.9% owned and 41.0% alive - used four times 106.5 pts ave 26.63

Steve Smith 27.8% owned and 44.9% alive - used six times 117.7 pts ave 19.6

Kev Walter 37.8% owned and 44.0% alive - used three times 64.7 pts ave 21.6

DeSe Jackson 32.9% owned and 39.3% alive - used four times 71.1 pts ave 17.78

Anton Bryant 16.2% owned and 41.2% alive - used four times 85.6 pts ave 21.4 Week 10 Bye

TEs - went with nonpopular selections - Need to step it up

Zach Miller 8.9% owned and 31.3% alive - used seven times 71.1 pts ave 10.2

Todd Heap 2.2% owned and 18.6% alive - used twice 16.3 pts ave 8.15

PKs - went with three for insurance

Hanson 25.2% owned and 25.4% alive - used three times 35.0 pts ave 11.67

Lindell 14.6% owned and 28.2% alive - used three times 36.0 pts ave 12.0

Prater 23.8% owned and 30.0% alive - used three times 48.0 pts ave 16.0

DST

Buffalo Bills 31.1% owned and 29.4% alive - used four times 36.0 pts ave 9.0

Arizona Cards 1.9% owned and 26.6% alive - used five times 55.0 pts ave 13.75

Nice depth info for my squad

QB games over 20 not used - three

RB games over 12 not used - six

WR games over 12 not used - four

TE games over 10 not used - NONE

PK games over 10 not used - six

DST games over 10 not used - one

 
With 2K left I am sure there are others in the same predicament, but I have gone the whole year without a kicker (Nugent). I thought I could get by the bye week with just one on my roster, but I am hanging by a thread each week due to his injury. Definitely a lesson learned for next year; I just need him back asap!

 
With 2K left I am sure there are others in the same predicament, but I have gone the whole year without a kicker (Nugent). I thought I could get by the bye week with just one on my roster, but I am hanging by a thread each week due to his injury. Definitely a lesson learned for next year; I just need him back asap!
Same here... still hanging on without a kicker all year (Coutu + Nugent). Next year I will have 3 $1 kickers, no exceptions.
 
7 teams alive that selected only 1 QB

1 team alive that selected only 2 RB's (Portis and Graham, both off week 10, bye bye)

3 teams alive that selected only 3 WR's (1 has survived with Burleson and his 8 straight goose eggs)

72 teams alive that selected only 1 TE

55 teams alive that selected only 1 PK

72 teams alive that selected only 1 D

2 teams alive that selected 6 QB's

1 team alive that selected 10 RB's

1 team alive that selected 12 WR's

1 team alive that selected 5 TE's

1 team alive that selected 9 PK's

1 team alive that selected 8 D's

 
This week I was missing Brees, S. Smith, Colston and SD def. I'm at 137.40 with fingers crossed.
I'm done with byes and continue forward with:QB - Drew Brees - 23QB - Jay Cutler - 14RB - Maurice Jones-Drew - 34RB - Thomas Jones - 21RB - Matt Forte - 20RB - Ray Rice - 4RB - Steve Slaton - 1WR - Marques Colston - 30WR - Steve Smith - 23WR - Nate Burleson - 18WR - Courtney Taylor - 3WR - Early Doucet - 3WR - Antonio Bryant - 2WR - Miles Austin - 1WR - Steve Breaston - 1WR - Craig Davis - 1TE - Kellen Winslow - 28TE - John Carlson - 4PK - Stephen Gostkowski - 5PK - Lawrence Tynes - 2TD - San Diego Chargers - 8TD - Seattle Seahawks - 4I'm a little thin at WR. Hopefully Colston can step it up.
 
Owen Daniels has been paying off BIG TIME

I was running red hot with the Schaub/Warner combo, but now I'm left with just Warner...hopefully he can keep it going.

Portis/Westbrook/Thomas Jones trio has been deadly and now with Ray Rice coming on I should be solid at RB

WR are fairly thin, but Cotchery, Walter, Driver, DeSean Jackson, and Mark Clayton have been doing a decent job of alternating good weeks.

I too have been running all year with Nugent at K, but I did have Crosby as well so it hasn't been a total loss at the position.

 
I was running red hot with the Schaub/Warner combo, but now I'm left with just Warner...hopefully he can keep it going.
I have the Schaub/Warner combo as well, but backed them up with Delhomme. He has yet to count for me, but I'm glad to have that option down the stretch. Schaub/Warner was a risky combo due to age/injury in my opinion(although Jake hasn't exactly been an iron man over the years either).
 
apalmer said:
beto said:
Keep the stats coming.

Thanks for those links apalmer, I didn't know they existed.
The Contest Querier is a wondrous thing.
I've wondered about the optimal structure for teams in this contest. Is it better to have 2 QBs or 3 QBs? How many RBs, WRs, TEs, etc. should you have on your roster?Through the end of week 9, 18.22% of all teams have survived. Of the total teams (all teams who entered the contest), 367 teams only had 1 QB. Of these teams only 7 teams (1.91%) survived through week 9. 4,787 teams started with 2 QBs, and 738 (15.42%) survived through week 9 -- compared to a survival rate of 18.22% for all teams -- so the 2-QB strategy was less than optimal.

6,380 teams started with 3 QBs, and 1435 (22.49%) survived through week 9. There were 1,116 teams that started with 4 or more QBs on the roster, and only 125 (11.20%) of these teams survived through week 9.

So the "3-QB" strategy is clearly the best strategy -- at least so far for this year.

 
2300 teams left and 700 to get cut this week. Of the teams left, 777 have Portis and 667 have Barber (89 have both!). That's a whopping 59% of the teams still alive that have at least one of those two guys on bye this week. Sure would be nice to see those teams absorb a big chunk of the cut.

 
apalmer said:
beto said:
Keep the stats coming.

Thanks for those links apalmer, I didn't know they existed.
The Contest Querier is a wondrous thing.
I've wondered about the optimal structure for teams in this contest. Is it better to have 2 QBs or 3 QBs? How many RBs, WRs, TEs, etc. should you have on your roster?Through the end of week 9, 18.22% of all teams have survived. Of the total teams (all teams who entered the contest), 367 teams only had 1 QB. Of these teams only 7 teams (1.91%) survived through week 9. 4,787 teams started with 2 QBs, and 738 (15.42%) survived through week 9 -- compared to a survival rate of 18.22% for all teams -- so the 2-QB strategy was less than optimal.

6,380 teams started with 3 QBs, and 1435 (22.49%) survived through week 9. There were 1,116 teams that started with 4 or more QBs on the roster, and only 125 (11.20%) of these teams survived through week 9.

So the "3-QB" strategy is clearly the best strategy -- at least so far for this year.
My theory is that the three QB system is critical every season in this format. QB is often your highest-scoring position. So if you are only relying on one or two QBs, you could be missing out on a lot of points every week at that position.
 
apalmer said:
beto said:
Keep the stats coming.

Thanks for those links apalmer, I didn't know they existed.
The Contest Querier is a wondrous thing.
I've wondered about the optimal structure for teams in this contest. Is it better to have 2 QBs or 3 QBs? How many RBs, WRs, TEs, etc. should you have on your roster?Through the end of week 9, 18.22% of all teams have survived. Of the total teams (all teams who entered the contest), 367 teams only had 1 QB. Of these teams only 7 teams (1.91%) survived through week 9. 4,787 teams started with 2 QBs, and 738 (15.42%) survived through week 9 -- compared to a survival rate of 18.22% for all teams -- so the 2-QB strategy was less than optimal.

6,380 teams started with 3 QBs, and 1435 (22.49%) survived through week 9. There were 1,116 teams that started with 4 or more QBs on the roster, and only 125 (11.20%) of these teams survived through week 9.

So the "3-QB" strategy is clearly the best strategy -- at least so far for this year.
Somewhere in this thread (20 or 30 pages ago), Doug did a statistical analysis of the "optimal" roster. As I recall, at that point the stats showed the best breakdown was 3 QB, 6 RBs, 7 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 Ks, and 2 Ds. Personally, I still like 3 K's and 3 D's to go with my 3 QB's, just because I think a $1 purchase there gets better results than anywhere else (at least after you've already rostered Breston and Slaton).
 
Last edited by a moderator:
apalmer said:
beto said:
Keep the stats coming.

Thanks for those links apalmer, I didn't know they existed.
The Contest Querier is a wondrous thing.
Similarly, for RBs, 731 teams started with 1-3 RBs, 1695 teams had 4 RBs, 4051 teams had 5 RBs, 4134 teams had 6 RBs, 1536 teams had 7 RBs, and 503 teams had 8 or more RBs.Teams with 6 RBs have the highest survival rate through week 9 (23.37%), followed by 19.35% for teams with 5 RBs, and a 19.34% survival rate for teams with 7 RBs.

Teams with 1-3 RBs, 4 RBs, and teams with 8 or more RBs all had substantially lower average survival rates (less than 13%).

 
2300 teams left and 700 to get cut this week. Of the teams left, 777 have Portis and 667 have Barber (89 have both!). That's a whopping 59% of the teams still alive that have at least one of those two guys on bye this week. Sure would be nice to see those teams absorb a big chunk of the cut.
Says the guy with neither Portis or Barber. There are lots of folks with ample depth to survive without one of those two. For example, I have DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Slaton and Ricky Williams who have all scored well for me in the past. Hoping that missing Portis will not be the death of my squad.
 
2300 teams left and 700 to get cut this week. Of the teams left, 777 have Portis and 667 have Barber (89 have both!). That's a whopping 59% of the teams still alive that have at least one of those two guys on bye this week. Sure would be nice to see those teams absorb a big chunk of the cut.
Says the guy with neither Portis or Barber. There are lots of folks with ample depth to survive without one of those two. For example, I have DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Slaton and Ricky Williams who have all scored well for me in the past. Hoping that missing Portis will not be the death of my squad.
Actually, also says the guys who own one of them as well. It's always good to have your stud be as unique as possible, so you'd like to hope you can survive their bye while many of those who also picked them don't make it. I would have been sitting pretty with Bush and Slayton as my RB starters this week, but unfortunately, I am left with just Ricky Weed to fill my RB2 slot (Portis in my 4th RB). Definitely hoping to get some nice production out of 3 of my 5 active WR's and possibly fill the flex strong with either Fasano or Winslow. Week 10 was always my cross the fingers week, but unfortunately missing one of my top RB's may put me at serious risk. I'm anxiously looking forward to the latest advancement predictor, and hope I'm at least in the top half this week.
 
Used 9 times -

Used 8 times -

Used 7 times - Walter, Witten

Used 6 times - Brees, MBIII, BJacobs, CJ3, CalJohnson, Marshall, Cotchery

Used 5 times -

Used 4 times - Slaton, Keller, Buffalo

Used 3 times - Orton, Hanson, Lindell, Suisham, Saints

Used 2 times - Gaffney, Lions

Used 1 times - RRice, CoTaylor(!), DemWilliams(BAL)

Used 0 times -

Week 10 will be a bit tough without Barber and Witten... but at least, as others have stated, Barber hasn't counted recently and Witten is hurt. Brees better play well as I'll be rolling with one QB. I've used all three K three times, and won't have Suisham this week.

Overall, my team has scored well but was really down Week 9. I don't think I'm unique enough to pull it off and I don't have Warner. My only shot is Brandon Jacobs (5%) rolling over a tough schedule and Demetrius Williams suddenly thinking he's Randy Moss circa 2007... he's owned by a whopping 1.2% right now!

 
Worm said:
Sweet Love said:
With 2K left I am sure there are others in the same predicament, but I have gone the whole year without a kicker (Nugent). I thought I could get by the bye week with just one on my roster, but I am hanging by a thread each week due to his injury. Definitely a lesson learned for next year; I just need him back asap!
Same here... still hanging on without a kicker all year (Coutu + Nugent). Next year I will have 3 $1 kickers, no exceptions.
At least 3 kickers and at least 3 TE's. I have been going with Stover only (Nugent) and only Visanthe Shiancoe (McMichael). I doubt many have Shiancoe left but with Portis and Barber on bye... if he has a great week this week against the Packers... that would help me out greatly.
 
2300 teams left and 700 to get cut this week. Of the teams left, 777 have Portis and 667 have Barber (89 have both!). That's a whopping 59% of the teams still alive that have at least one of those two guys on bye this week. Sure would be nice to see those teams absorb a big chunk of the cut.
No it would not. (I am one of the 89)
 
Used 9 times - Used 8 times - Used 7 times - Walter, WittenUsed 6 times - Brees, MBIII, BJacobs, CJ3, CalJohnson, Marshall, CotcheryUsed 5 times - Used 4 times - Slaton, Keller, BuffaloUsed 3 times - Orton, Hanson, Lindell, Suisham, SaintsUsed 2 times - Gaffney, LionsUsed 1 times - RRice, CoTaylor(!), DemWilliams(BAL)Used 0 times - Week 10 will be a bit tough without Barber and Witten... but at least, as others have stated, Barber hasn't counted recently and Witten is hurt. Brees better play well as I'll be rolling with one QB. I've used all three K three times, and won't have Suisham this week.Overall, my team has scored well but was really down Week 9. I don't think I'm unique enough to pull it off and I don't have Warner. My only shot is Brandon Jacobs (5%) rolling over a tough schedule and Demetrius Williams suddenly thinking he's Randy Moss circa 2007... he's owned by a whopping 1.2% right now!
Sorry, but I believe that Demetrius Williams is on IR
 
Used 9 times: None

Used 8 times: Suisham

Used 7 times: Portis, Walter

Used 6 times: Chris Johnson, Slaton, Marshall, Steve Smith, Cochery

Used 5 times: Zack Miller, Fasano, Phi

Used 4 times: Cutler, Warner, NY Jets

Used 3 times: Turner, Chambers

Used 2 times: None

Used 1 time: Delhomme, Ricky Williams, Reggie Williams, Nugent, Hagan

Used 0 times: Betts

I'm much more concerned about missing Suisham this week than Portis but with the rest of my team at full strength I still feel pretty confident.

A little bit suprised that Michael Turner has only counted for me three times this year.

 
Interesting. Romo was "used" for 0 points when I had no active QB in week 7.

Used 9 times: Portis

Used 8 times: None

Used 7 times: Cotchery, T. Gonzalez

Used 6 times: Steve Smith, Walter, Vikings

Used 5 times: Romo, T. Jones, Slaton, Marshall, Mason, K. Brown

Used 4 times: Warner, Kaeding

Used 3 times: Ricky Williams, Patriots

Used 2 times: Rice

Used 1 time: Hagan, Utecht, Keller

Used 0 times: Ryan, M. Morris

 
Used 9 times - Used 8 times - Used 7 times - Walter, WittenUsed 6 times - Brees, MBIII, BJacobs, CJ3, CalJohnson, Marshall, CotcheryUsed 5 times - Used 4 times - Slaton, Keller, BuffaloUsed 3 times - Orton, Hanson, Lindell, Suisham, SaintsUsed 2 times - Gaffney, LionsUsed 1 times - RRice, CoTaylor(!), DemWilliams(BAL)Used 0 times - Week 10 will be a bit tough without Barber and Witten... but at least, as others have stated, Barber hasn't counted recently and Witten is hurt. Brees better play well as I'll be rolling with one QB. I've used all three K three times, and won't have Suisham this week.Overall, my team has scored well but was really down Week 9. I don't think I'm unique enough to pull it off and I don't have Warner. My only shot is Brandon Jacobs (5%) rolling over a tough schedule and Demetrius Williams suddenly thinking he's Randy Moss circa 2007... he's owned by a whopping 1.2% right now!
Sorry, but I believe that Demetrius Williams is on IR
just came back to correct myself for missing that somehow this weekwasn't really counting on him anyway... I will always remember the 70 yard TD that got him to score for me one week though!
 
2300 teams left and 700 to get cut this week. Of the teams left, 777 have Portis and 667 have Barber (89 have both!). That's a whopping 59% of the teams still alive that have at least one of those two guys on bye this week. Sure would be nice to see those teams absorb a big chunk of the cut.
Says the guy with neither Portis or Barber. There are lots of folks with ample depth to survive without one of those two. For example, I have DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Slaton and Ricky Williams who have all scored well for me in the past. Hoping that missing Portis will not be the death of my squad.
I'm sure there are, but it would still be nice to weed out the others. There were lots of folks with enough depth to survive LT's slow start and to survive Week 7 with no QB when they were relying on Romo/Warner. But it sure was nice to get rid of some who weren't so that having Romo/Warner/LT down the stretch can be an advantage rather than the norm.
 
Here is a pretty scary team:

Code:
Drew Brees			$23	 33.95  15.70  27.05  35.05  21.10  34.70  10.55  32.35   0.00 Jay Cutler			$14	 27.85  41.10  24.90  22.65  18.95  22.80  14.20   0.00  24.55 Kurt Warner			$5	 15.45  36.05  20.60  32.60  25.50  22.70   0.00  30.05  28.90 Marion Barber		 $40	 23.60  25.40  23.20   4.70  10.20  28.80  17.80  13.00   4.70 Matt Forte			$20	 21.60  12.80  25.00  11.00  20.10  19.50  14.30   0.00  13.60 Ryan Torain			$5	  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.10 Ray Rice			   $4	  9.80   0.00   2.10   0.00   0.00  12.20   6.90  11.60  19.10 Jamaal Charles		 $2	  4.40   2.70   7.70   1.80   6.00   0.00   6.30   5.40  10.60 Steve Slaton		   $1	  6.40   0.00  20.40  21.60  22.10   6.60  16.40  13.60  15.80 Brandon Marshall	  $23	  0.00  40.60  27.50  19.60   5.50  18.80  14.40   0.00   4.70 Steve Smith		   $23	  0.00   0.00  11.00  21.60  15.60  17.20  24.20  28.10   0.00 Greg Jennings		 $22	 14.10  22.70  19.50  28.90  18.70  19.40   6.20   0.00  10.90 Anthony Gonzalez	  $14	  9.80  22.70   5.70   0.00   1.30   7.30  12.20   6.70  21.50 Donnie Avery		   $5	  0.00   0.00   5.40  14.90   0.00  10.80  18.20  28.20   5.60 James Jones			$5	  0.00  12.90   0.00   0.00   1.90   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00 Sinorice Moss		  $2	  3.30   0.00   0.00   0.00  20.50   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.20 Chris Cooley		  $19	  2.20  14.70  17.70   8.80  28.90  13.20   9.20  16.40  19.80 Leonard Pope		   $5	  2.00   3.00   0.00   0.00   1.90   4.20   0.00   0.00   0.00 Stephen Gostkowski	 $5	  6.00  14.00  10.00   0.00  17.00   6.00  14.00  14.00  10.00 Robbie Gould		   $2	 11.00   5.00  14.00   8.00  13.00  10.00  14.00   0.00  12.00 Minnesota Vikings	  $8	  0.00   6.00  15.00   2.00  15.00  10.00   4.00   0.00  11.00 Carolina Panthers	  $3	  9.00   5.00   5.00   2.00   9.00   0.00   5.00   6.00   0.00
A hot streak by some combination of Torain/Charles/Avery and this guy has a huge advantage over the rest of the field.
 
I love my 89.2% chance of survival, but I do have three QB/WR pairs. Don't know if that inflates my chances or not. Since one of the WR's is Breaston (not a starter) and another is Reggie Williams (on the erratic side of awful), I'm guessing not. Rodgers and Jennings have been money, though.

 

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