2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[MSULions]

ugh. i just realized i have Portis/MBIII out this week. going to be tough to survive the cut....this is by far the best i've ever done and have comfortably made it every week. stupid byes

 

[Cowboys#1]

Keller and T. Jones have been great in that first half for me

 

[RenegadeGM]

Well if I fail to advance this week it won't be because Witten was off, thanks to Dustin Keller.

My RBs are doing nothing... that will be the reason.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

157.45 at halftime of the early games. Hooray for Cutler, MJD, Ricky, Brandon, Keller, and the Jets D.

 

[ctriopelle]

176.25 + Fitz and Breaston -5.3 & -3.2. Looks like I'm gonna make it past my Romo/S. Moss/Bush/Portis-less death march, even with Slayton as RB2 putting up a measly 3.4. Reggie better get healthy in a hurry to keep this team running strong!

Looking forward to battling with 1599 others next week!

 

[HALtheCOW]

The RB position has been my strengh all year, but With Portis and MBIII off this week, I thought I was a goner for sure. Ricky Williams did his part but Ray Rice and Slaton did nothing.

However, my TEs have sucked it up--I only have about 75 points all year out of Heap and Keller combined. It was a great week to have them get 50 for me. Both will count and get me to 165 ish with very little hope for more points.

Surely 165 will be enough even with lots of scoring around the league.

 

[Tecumseh]

Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton having awful days with Barber, Cooley and Moss out has pretty much doomed me. Only 79 points so far.

 

[Kleck]

175+ after the early games. I was a bit worried too with Portis & Moss on bye.

 

[Nugget]

Hoping Warner puts up a turd tomorrow night.

Cutler/Warner owner.

 

[Challenge Everything]

My last hopes rest in Nate Washington... Larry Fitzgerald... Mushin Muhammed and Kurt Warner (-Ryan's game). So, it looks like my journey is ending.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton having awful days with Barber, Cooley and Moss out has pretty much doomed me. Only 79 points so far.

Sitting at about 120 right now...Teddy GInn and Ricky Williams are close to my leading WR and RB today...Marshall/Cutler the other night might be all for not. Steve Smith??? LJ SMith??? Philly??? I'm running out of bullets

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

CTR, how does your cut number of 119 after the early games compare to the last few weeks? Its a little lower than I was expecting, so Im wondering if were going to have another week with the cut line below 140.

 

[a_troll00]

DWills long TD run just put me up just above 130. My squad may make it out of this week yet. Up to this point, my RBs and WRs have done nothing this week except for B. Marshall.

Keep it going DeAngelo!

 

[ctriopelle]

CTR, how does your cut number of 119 after the early games compare to the last few weeks? Its a little lower than I was expecting, so Im wondering if were going to have another week with the cut line below 140.

I don't keep track of stuff like that, and honestly I can't remember if I even calculated early cuts the last few weeks. I'm expecting a higher cut as well, with Williams, Cutler, and Marshall all having decent games, coupled with the 30% kill rate this week. Of course, there are a bunch of big players down, and just from observing comments this week, it appears a lot of teams weren't paying a lot of attention to who was on bye together this week.I suspect a fair amount of teams don't have a QB score yet, and they are depending on Warner for their points. I suspect the MNF cut will be a big rise this week if he has even a decent (not great) game.All the above is just speculation, but by the sheer cut numbers, this week's final cut should be the highest yet.

 

[CrossEyed]

I'm in trouble. Only 91 so far. Parker being out on Portis' by week is really hurting me. That and the fact that Slaton and Maurice Morris were useless today. Unless the Eagles actually use Booker tonight I think I might be done.

 

[RenegadeGM]

I think I'm a goner unless Brandon Jacobs comes up HUGE tonight.

The garbage time Hail Mary from Brees gives me hope, though.

 

[ctriopelle]

CTR, how does your cut number of 119 after the early games compare to the last few weeks? Its a little lower than I was expecting, so Im wondering if were going to have another week with the cut line below 140.

I don't keep track of stuff like that, and honestly I can't remember if I even calculated early cuts the last few weeks. I'm expecting a higher cut as well, with Williams, Cutler, and Marshall all having decent games, coupled with the 30% kill rate this week. Of course, there are a bunch of big players down, and just from observing comments this week, it appears a lot of teams weren't paying a lot of attention to who was on bye together this week.I suspect a fair amount of teams don't have a QB score yet, and they are depending on Warner for their points. I suspect the MNF cut will be a big rise this week if he has even a decent (not great) game.All the above is just speculation, but by the sheer cut numbers, this week's final cut should be the highest yet.

FYI, a 30 point night by Warner currently raises the cut by 10 points all by itself (in the FS database). I'd say a lot of people on the good side of the cut will be pulling for him to have a quiet night.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

I suspect a fair amount of teams don't have a QB score yet, and they are depending on Warner for their points. I suspect the MNF cut will be a big rise this week if he has even a decent (not great) game.

Agree. I t looks like it will be high. With 70% ownership, if Warner has his typical game of 30, he'll move the cut 15 by himself.

 

[dbc925]

I'll be here again next week. Over 200 at halftime of the 4:00 games. Hoping that the Slaton/CJ owners are all taking a big dump since I have them both (thank you MoJo, T Jones, Forte, and of course Cutler). Stuck using Josh Brown's 4 points and Ben Watson's 2.2. Lost S Moss, Cooley and Suisham this week.

 

[ClownDogs]

Sitting at 188 with Warner(-Ryan's) and DeSean Jackson(-14)

See you next week.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

I suspect a fair amount of teams don't have a QB score yet, and they are depending on Warner for their points. I suspect the MNF cut will be a big rise this week if he has even a decent (not great) game.

Agree. I t looks like it will be high. With 70% ownership, if Warner has his typical game of 30, he'll move the cut 15 by himself.

Where'd you pull that 15 from?

 

[jdoggydogg]

173.60 with Warner left (-24.9).

It'll be nice to get Marion Barber back next week with Romo at the helm.

 

[Synthesizer]

Here is a pretty scary team:

Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70 27.05 35.05 21.10 34.70 10.55 32.35 0.00 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00 24.55 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05 28.90 Marion Barber $40 23.60 25.40 23.20 4.70 10.20 28.80 17.80 13.00 4.70 Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00 13.60 Ryan Torain $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60 19.10 Jamaal Charles $2 4.40 2.70 7.70 1.80 6.00 0.00 6.30 5.40 10.60 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60 15.80 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00 4.70 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10 0.00 Greg Jennings $22 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 19.40 6.20 0.00 10.90 Anthony Gonzalez $14 9.80 22.70 5.70 0.00 1.30 7.30 12.20 6.70 21.50 Donnie Avery $5 0.00 0.00 5.40 14.90 0.00 10.80 18.20 28.20 5.60 James Jones $5 0.00 12.90 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sinorice Moss $2 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Chris Cooley $19 2.20 14.70 17.70 8.80 28.90 13.20 9.20 16.40 19.80 Leonard Pope $5 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $5 6.00 14.00 10.00 0.00 17.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00 12.00 Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00 15.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 4.00 0.00 11.00 Carolina Panthers $3 9.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00A hot streak by some combination of Torain/Charles/Avery and this guy has a huge advantage over the rest of the field.

Wow, I love that team.Only a couple of minor misses on players, several very nice hits (so far), and great uniqueness.

Not surprisingly, this is the top team in the simulation to take it all.

The more I look at it, the more amazing it is.Torain, Rice, Charles, and Avery are just now starting to add their contributions to his weekly scores.

Wow, things can change quickly in the NFL. Torain was decent for 1 week but is gone for the year. The other 3 guys mentioned were non-factors today. Plus he had a bunch of guys lay eggs this week (Slaton, S.Smith, Jennings, Avery). Interested to see if he still makes the cut.

 

[Das Boot]

Here is a pretty scary team:

Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70 27.05 35.05 21.10 34.70 10.55 32.35 0.00 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00 24.55 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05 28.90 Marion Barber $40 23.60 25.40 23.20 4.70 10.20 28.80 17.80 13.00 4.70 Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00 13.60 Ryan Torain $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60 19.10 Jamaal Charles $2 4.40 2.70 7.70 1.80 6.00 0.00 6.30 5.40 10.60 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60 15.80 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00 4.70 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10 0.00 Greg Jennings $22 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 19.40 6.20 0.00 10.90 Anthony Gonzalez $14 9.80 22.70 5.70 0.00 1.30 7.30 12.20 6.70 21.50 Donnie Avery $5 0.00 0.00 5.40 14.90 0.00 10.80 18.20 28.20 5.60 James Jones $5 0.00 12.90 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sinorice Moss $2 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Chris Cooley $19 2.20 14.70 17.70 8.80 28.90 13.20 9.20 16.40 19.80 Leonard Pope $5 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $5 6.00 14.00 10.00 0.00 17.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00 12.00 Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00 15.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 4.00 0.00 11.00 Carolina Panthers $3 9.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00A hot streak by some combination of Torain/Charles/Avery and this guy has a huge advantage over the rest of the field.

Wow, I love that team.Only a couple of minor misses on players, several very nice hits (so far), and great uniqueness.

Not surprisingly, this is the top team in the simulation to take it all.

The more I look at it, the more amazing it is.Torain, Rice, Charles, and Avery are just now starting to add their contributions to his weekly scores.

Wow, things can change quickly in the NFL. Torain was decent for 1 week but is gone for the year. The other 3 guys mentioned were non-factors today. Plus he had a bunch of guys lay eggs this week (Slaton, S.Smith, Jennings, Avery). Interested to see if he still makes the cut.

I agree, without adding it up, he isn't scoring a ton this week... could be close.

 

[a_troll00]

I'm currently sitting at 156.55 with DeSean Jackson (-5.5) and Kurt Warner (-42.25) to go. Hopefully this is enough to get me by this week.

 

[The Kerminator]

Here is a pretty scary team:

Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70 27.05 35.05 21.10 34.70 10.55 32.35 0.00 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00 24.55 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05 28.90 Marion Barber $40 23.60 25.40 23.20 4.70 10.20 28.80 17.80 13.00 4.70 Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00 13.60 Ryan Torain $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60 19.10 Jamaal Charles $2 4.40 2.70 7.70 1.80 6.00 0.00 6.30 5.40 10.60 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60 15.80 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00 4.70 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10 0.00 Greg Jennings $22 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 19.40 6.20 0.00 10.90 Anthony Gonzalez $14 9.80 22.70 5.70 0.00 1.30 7.30 12.20 6.70 21.50 Donnie Avery $5 0.00 0.00 5.40 14.90 0.00 10.80 18.20 28.20 5.60 James Jones $5 0.00 12.90 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sinorice Moss $2 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Chris Cooley $19 2.20 14.70 17.70 8.80 28.90 13.20 9.20 16.40 19.80 Leonard Pope $5 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $5 6.00 14.00 10.00 0.00 17.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00 12.00 Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00 15.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 4.00 0.00 11.00 Carolina Panthers $3 9.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00A hot streak by some combination of Torain/Charles/Avery and this guy has a huge advantage over the rest of the field.

Wow, I love that team.Only a couple of minor misses on players, several very nice hits (so far), and great uniqueness.

Not surprisingly, this is the top team in the simulation to take it all.

The more I look at it, the more amazing it is.Torain, Rice, Charles, and Avery are just now starting to add their contributions to his weekly scores.

Wow, things can change quickly in the NFL. Torain was decent for 1 week but is gone for the year. The other 3 guys mentioned were non-factors today. Plus he had a bunch of guys lay eggs this week (Slaton, S.Smith, Jennings, Avery). Interested to see if he still makes the cut.

I agree, without adding it up, he isn't scoring a ton this week... could be close.

Quick estimate I'd say he's around 120-130. He'll be close.

 

[ctriopelle]

131.4 current cutoff estimate after the day games

 

[Tecumseh]

Definitely gone. Nothing from Washington or Steve Smith. It was a good run, and a respectable showing for my first year in the contest I guess.

 

[apalmer]

Ugh. Turk gave me a 94.5% chance of moving on, but I'm sitting at 141 with Warner (-24.4) and Breaston (- Smith's awesome 1.9). I really need Stevie to be Warner's big target tomorrow.

 

[nashua55]

In at 179.35 with Deshaun Jackson (-2.8) to go. Even though my final two wr scoring slots and flex position netted me 14.5 total. Thanks to Cutler, Jones, Gonzo and Marshall I should move on.

 

[ctriopelle]

Here is a pretty scary team:

Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70 27.05 35.05 21.10 34.70 10.55 32.35 0.00 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00 24.55 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05 28.90 Marion Barber $40 23.60 25.40 23.20 4.70 10.20 28.80 17.80 13.00 4.70 Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00 13.60 Ryan Torain $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60 19.10 Jamaal Charles $2 4.40 2.70 7.70 1.80 6.00 0.00 6.30 5.40 10.60 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60 15.80 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00 4.70 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10 0.00 Greg Jennings $22 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 19.40 6.20 0.00 10.90 Anthony Gonzalez $14 9.80 22.70 5.70 0.00 1.30 7.30 12.20 6.70 21.50 Donnie Avery $5 0.00 0.00 5.40 14.90 0.00 10.80 18.20 28.20 5.60 James Jones $5 0.00 12.90 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sinorice Moss $2 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Chris Cooley $19 2.20 14.70 17.70 8.80 28.90 13.20 9.20 16.40 19.80 Leonard Pope $5 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $5 6.00 14.00 10.00 0.00 17.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00 12.00 Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00 15.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 4.00 0.00 11.00 Carolina Panthers $3 9.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00A hot streak by some combination of Torain/Charles/Avery and this guy has a huge advantage over the rest of the field.

Wow, I love that team.Only a couple of minor misses on players, several very nice hits (so far), and great uniqueness.

Not surprisingly, this is the top team in the simulation to take it all.

The more I look at it, the more amazing it is.Torain, Rice, Charles, and Avery are just now starting to add their contributions to his weekly scores.

Wow, things can change quickly in the NFL. Torain was decent for 1 week but is gone for the year. The other 3 guys mentioned were non-factors today. Plus he had a bunch of guys lay eggs this week (Slaton, S.Smith, Jennings, Avery). Interested to see if he still makes the cut.

I agree, without adding it up, he isn't scoring a ton this week... could be close.

Quick estimate I'd say he's around 120-130. He'll be close.

he's at 138.55 +leonard pope +warner-42.25 He needs warner to have a bad game except for a couple of tosses to pope

 

[BuckeyeArt]

I suspect a fair amount of teams don't have a QB score yet, and they are depending on Warner for their points. I suspect the MNF cut will be a big rise this week if he has even a decent (not great) game.

Agree. I t looks like it will be high. With 70% ownership, if Warner has his typical game of 30, he'll move the cut 15 by himself.

Where'd you pull that 15 from?

Rough estimate. If you take the ownership percentages, multiply by the points, then by about 80%, and add them together, you get the approximate cutoff. I get around 131.45, which is very close to Ctriopelle's FantasyStar estimate. Warner at 73.8% times 30 points times 80% would be 17.7 points.

 

[Random]

123.1 with Westbrook (-4.8), Warner (-0.0), and Breaston (-1.9) to go. Not feeling too confident.

 

[Das Boot]

Here is a pretty scary team:

Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70 27.05 35.05 21.10 34.70 10.55 32.35 0.00 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00 24.55 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05 28.90 Marion Barber $40 23.60 25.40 23.20 4.70 10.20 28.80 17.80 13.00 4.70 Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00 13.60 Ryan Torain $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60 19.10 Jamaal Charles $2 4.40 2.70 7.70 1.80 6.00 0.00 6.30 5.40 10.60 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60 15.80 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00 4.70 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10 0.00 Greg Jennings $22 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 19.40 6.20 0.00 10.90 Anthony Gonzalez $14 9.80 22.70 5.70 0.00 1.30 7.30 12.20 6.70 21.50 Donnie Avery $5 0.00 0.00 5.40 14.90 0.00 10.80 18.20 28.20 5.60 James Jones $5 0.00 12.90 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sinorice Moss $2 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Chris Cooley $19 2.20 14.70 17.70 8.80 28.90 13.20 9.20 16.40 19.80 Leonard Pope $5 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $5 6.00 14.00 10.00 0.00 17.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00 12.00 Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00 15.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 4.00 0.00 11.00 Carolina Panthers $3 9.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00A hot streak by some combination of Torain/Charles/Avery and this guy has a huge advantage over the rest of the field.

Wow, I love that team.Only a couple of minor misses on players, several very nice hits (so far), and great uniqueness.

Not surprisingly, this is the top team in the simulation to take it all.

The more I look at it, the more amazing it is.Torain, Rice, Charles, and Avery are just now starting to add their contributions to his weekly scores.

Wow, things can change quickly in the NFL. Torain was decent for 1 week but is gone for the year. The other 3 guys mentioned were non-factors today. Plus he had a bunch of guys lay eggs this week (Slaton, S.Smith, Jennings, Avery). Interested to see if he still makes the cut.

I agree, without adding it up, he isn't scoring a ton this week... could be close.

Quick estimate I'd say he's around 120-130. He'll be close.

he's at 138.55 +leonard pope +warner-42.25 He needs warner to have a bad game except for a couple of tosses to pope

Nobody would want their contest life hanging on a bad game by Warner. Well... other than lhucks of course.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Pretty much done. Furthest I've made it so far.

 

[Marauder]

150.25 with only Warner (-42.25) and a little nervous about it. A lot of potential points in the two remaining games.

 

[Sol D]

Checked FantasyStar and I'm at 155.65 with Warner (-42.25) and SF D (-3.00). Was feeling pretty good until I read some of the more recent posts. A 30 point Warner night will raise the cutoff 10 to 15 points, depending on who you believe. With an estimated cutoff already at 131 with two games to go, I guess it will be interesting for me. Big ups to Kevin Walter who has come up huge for me 3 times this season, including this week.

It doesn't look like the favorite team of the week is going to move on. I hope I'm never the favorite new team to watch.

 

[ctriopelle]

Rough estimate. If you take the ownership percentages, multiply by the points, then by about 80%, and add them together, you get the approximate cutoff. I get around 131.45, which is very close to Ctriopelle's FantasyStar estimate. Warner at 73.8% times 30 points times 80% would be 17.7 points.

Putting in Warner for 30 as a plug score in the database right now bumps the cut a little less than 10. Putting him in for 20 points bumps it about 5. The cut will be moved tomorrow in large part by his output alone, but his contribution will be less than half of his points unless he has a huge game (like 50+).

 

[OU#1]

131.10 with Warner (-7.2), my flex left of either Breaston or DeSean (-3.3), and SF D (-8.0).

Not feeling too confident but if I somehow make it it'll weed out other Slaton, Rice, CJ4.2, and Steve Smith owners.

If it wasn't for Peterson, Mark Bradley, and Dustin Keller I'd be toast already. Jonathan Stewart and McFadden being dead weight will probably do me in.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Safely into week 11 with 211.75 points with Kurt Warner (-42.25) and Steve Breaston (-2.80) left.

QB - Jay Cutler - 42.25

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew - 28.10

RB - Ricky Williams - 19.60

WR - Brandon Marshall - 20.90

WR - Derrick Mason - 7.10

WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 2.80

TE - Tony Gonzalez - 38.30

Flex - Dustin Keller - 25.70

K - Kris Brown - 9.00

D - Jets - 18.00

My low scoring non-used players for this week (AKA guys I want to see a huge cut from)...

QB - Jake Delhomme - 5.60

RB - Leon Washington - 8.80 (not a bad score for him)

RB - Steve Slaton - 3.40 (he's owned by tons and was only $1, so cut will be minimal)

RB - Ray Rice - 2.90 - (another low-cost, highly owned RB)

RB - Maurice Morris - 2.20 (this guy has been a bum; how can 1/6 of his owners still be alive?)

RB - Clinton Portis - bye (hoping many owners were counting on Slaton and Rice)

WR - Steve Smith - 1.90 (his 24% live ownership should take a decent hit)

WR - Reggie Williams - 1.60 (and to think, I chose him over Kevin Walter at the last minute)

WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 2.80 (he's currently a starter for me, but I expect Breaston to take over for him)

WR - Derrick Mason - 7.10 (another starter for me, but his 7.10 points will knock out many owners)

K - Jason Hanson - 2.00 (only a $1 kicker)

D - Dolphins - 3.00 (only a $1 defense)

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Rough estimate. If you take the ownership percentages, multiply by the points, then by about 80%, and add them together, you get the approximate cutoff. I get around 131.45, which is very close to Ctriopelle's FantasyStar estimate. Warner at 73.8% times 30 points times 80% would be 17.7 points.

Putting in Warner for 30 as a plug score in the database right now bumps the cut a little less than 10. Putting him in for 20 points bumps it about 5. The cut will be moved tomorrow in large part by his output alone, but his contribution will be less than half of his points unless he has a huge game (like 50+).

I'm sure your estimate is more accurate. Mine shouldn't work nearly as well well when used on just one player. How close is the fantasystar database to the contest percentages (specifically, the top 6 or 7 owned QB's)?

 

[fasteddie_21]

157.40 and that's w/ MBIII and LBJ doing squat for me.

Hello Dustin Keller, Garrard, Walter, and 'Run, Ricky, Run'!

See y'all next week.

 

[Alberta Clipper]

My first tough test this week.

127 with Warner (-11.2), LJ Smith, DeS Jackson (-2.9), Phi DT (-10) and Edge (if he's playing -3.4).

Would be a great week for LJS to play for some job security (wishfull thinking)

The surprise of my team lately has been Dawson - I thought I might never count his scores but have used him 5x in a row.

 

[kevzilla]

At 175.5 with Warner -24.9 and Breaston -6.7; see you guys next week.

 

[panhead55]

206.15 with Breaston (-0). Onto week 11.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

This week's highly owned players (over 10%) on a bye:

QB - there are only 8 QB's left over 10%

Tony Romo (23.0%), Matt Schaub (21.7%, injured)

RB - there are only 9 RB's left over 10%

Clinton Portis (33.7%), Marion Barber (28.9%)

WR - there are only 19 WR's left over 10%

Antonio Bryant (20.7%), Santana Moss (15.4%), Patrick Crayton (12.5%), Antwaan Randle El (12.4%)

TE - there are only 5 TE's left over 10%

Chris Cooley (14.0%), Ben Utecht (13.8%)

K - there are only 8 K's left over 10%

Mike Nugent (25.2%), Nick Folk (12.4%), Shaun Suisham (12.4%)

Note: Mike Nugent is still the most owned kicker, and he hasn't even played since week 1

D - there are only 10 D's left over 10%

Cowboys (13.5%)

Note: The Bills are owned by an amazing 32.0%, while the next highest are the Saints at 16.1%

 

[ctriopelle]

Rough estimate. If you take the ownership percentages, multiply by the points, then by about 80%, and add them together, you get the approximate cutoff. I get around 131.45, which is very close to Ctriopelle's FantasyStar estimate. Warner at 73.8% times 30 points times 80% would be 17.7 points.

Putting in Warner for 30 as a plug score in the database right now bumps the cut a little less than 10. Putting him in for 20 points bumps it about 5. The cut will be moved tomorrow in large part by his output alone, but his contribution will be less than half of his points unless he has a huge game (like 50+).

I'm sure your estimate is more accurate. Mine shouldn't work nearly as well well when used on just one player. How close is the fantasystar database to the contest percentages (specifically, the top 6 or 7 owned QB's)?

Finding the answer to that is a bit of a task, with the way I set the teams up (specifically how I determine the still live ones). I've thought about validating the sample by checking for these inconsistencies (and I'm sure there are some), but it's kinda low on my list of priorities right now. In general, our straight up cut is about 5-10% off from the actual cut, so it can't be off by much in the important spots. Also, once I adjust my initial projection correction factor to match what DD's pre-MNF numbers are, we're usually within a point of the final number on the estimate.BTW I wasn't ripping on your estimate, just trying to offer some hope for guys without a planned big contribution from Warner. I think most folks in here tend to way overestimate where the cut will land (likely out of pessimism so they are pleasantly surprised when they advance), but in reality it takes a pretty bad score for a given week to get booted (since up to this week only the bottom 20-30% get cut).

 

[H8fulHuck]

Moving on at 167 + Warner (-31) Boldin (-11.2) & Phi (-0)

Survived my Portis bye week.

 

[Robbie Cooper]

Very nervous with my 148.8 points, with whatever Toomer adds in the second half. Please, Eli, keep throwing the ball to Toomer. A TD or two would be extra nice.

 

[Firekaps]

In!

188.5 with Warner (-Cutler). Awesome week with Cutler/Marshall/T Jones/Ginn/Ricky/Walter and Marcedes Lewis...Portis on bye and no problems.

Still don't think my team is very unique but making it through week 10 is great...