2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

[meeka]

Unofficial pre-MNF cut: 135.60

I am at 135 with Warner (-5.6)Another week of dancing with the cut line.

 

[Scarpaggio]

second best week for me this season even with Portis out and Slaton not doing much: 223.25 Still have Warner and Breaston but I can't imagine either will count for me this week.

 

[Otis]

Man, my Mark Bradley purchase for a buck is starting to look like

I'm at 154 pts with Frank Gore, Anquan Boldin, Joe Nedney, and the Niners defense still to go. Week 11 here we come.

 

[Cixelsyd]

I'm in around 213.05, which I think is my best week.

 

[Alberta Clipper]

Portis owners note he's an early Quest 50/50 for wk11...

 

[tommyGunZ]

Unofficial pre-MNF cut: 135.60

Who out there besides Warner can really move this cut?

Of the 2300 that are still alive:QB - Kurt Warner is owned by 1701RB - Frank Gore is owned by 92, Edgerrin James is owned by 43WR - Steve Breaston is owned by 399, Larry Fitzgerald is owned by 318, Anquan Boldin is owned by 149, Isaac Bruce is owned by 133, Bryant Johnson is owned by 93, Jason Hill is owned by 60TE - Vernon Davis is owned by 138, Leonard Pope is owned by 50K - Neil Rackers is owned by 171, Joe Nedney is owned by 158D - SF D is owned by 240, ARI D is owned by 44Look like the only ones that may move the cutline a lot are Warner, Gore (rare player, but expensive, so those who have him may be using all his pts), all 3 ARI WR's, and Vernon Davis (another rare player, but likely to be TE1 for many who own him). As always, K's and D's will have an impact is they explode.

As a member of the ~ 25% still alive who don't own Warner, here's hoping he pulls a hammy tonight!

 

[wraith5]

150.3 using Ryan, but still have Warner. I think that it's my worst week yet thanks to Barber's bye week plus the horrific week from Slaton and Chris Johnson. I hope it's good enough to squeak by.

I've got Slaton & CJ3 too (plus Portis on BYE), but got lucky with Thomas Jones, DeAngelo Williams and Ricky Williams (flex). About 175 and should be moving on.

 

[Giantseasonticketholder]

I always seem to bow out this week every year. I'm sitting at 134 with Nedney left. My biggest mistake was Addai. All of that money could have been spent much more wisely.

 

[CrossEyed]

Portis owners note he's an early Quest 50/50 for wk11...

Just saw that. With my top 2 RBs being Portis and Parker, this might be my last hurrah.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Portis owners note he's an early Quest 50/50 for wk11...

Just saw that. With my top 2 RBs being Portis and Parker, this might be my last hurrah.

I feel you pain.Ive got Portis Parker and Mcfadden as my top 3 Ive had to rely on rice/SlatonI probably make this week with 142 (-4.5 Boldin) (-1 SFD) NEXT WEEK MIGHT DO ME IN THOUGH

 

[jdoggydogg]

I'm thinking a lot of non-Portis owners are hoping he doesn't play this week. He's a top RB, and owned on a lot of rosters.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I'm thinking a lot of non-Portis owners are hoping he doesn't play this week. He's a top RB, and owned on a lot of rosters.

I'm one Portis owner who would like to risk him sitting in week 11. I went with 7 RB's, so I'd still have a decent shot, because my team is pretty healthy. The best way to become more unique is to have your top dollar guys take an unexpected week off. Just ask all those still alive with guys like Romo, FWP, Boldin, etc.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I'm thinking a lot of non-Portis owners are hoping he doesn't play this week. He's a top RB, and owned on a lot of rosters.

I'm one Portis owner who would like to risk him sitting in week 11. I went with 7 RB's, so I'd still have a decent shot, because my team is pretty healthy. The best way to become more unique is to have your top dollar guys take an unexpected week off. Just ask all those still alive with guys like Romo, FWP, Boldin, etc.

Touche.

 

[kroyrunner89]

i have 144.8 with fitzgerald (-3.2). i'm thinking i'll be okay, but if he gets hurt or something i'm toast. if i can make it through this hell week it would be a miracle, especially since i've had one legit wr this entire contest

 

[Robbie Cooper]

As ctriopelle has noted, the line might not move all that much because of Warner alone.

To wit, 1702 teams have Warner.

Of them, 1537 of them already have a QB who scored 20+ points this week.

While 1085 of them already have a QB who scored 30+ pts this week.

So even if Warner throws up an avg. 25 pt night, the majority of owners still won't use him, or will only gain a few extra points.

Owners with Warner who also own:

475 with Cutler (-42.25)

438 with Brees (-31)

137 with McNabb (-30.20)

35 with Peyton Manning (-30)

54 with Rivers (-25.80)

115 with Garrard (-24.90)

252 with Ryan (-24.20)

31 with Eli Manning (-20.75)

 

[eric rymer]

not looking too good tonight boys. Sitting at 107.8 with Warner and Rackers left. Need about 40-45 out of the two to stay alive. Highly unlikely so good luck to all that are moving on.

 

[meeka]

Portis owners note he's an early Quest 50/50 for wk11...

Just saw that. With my top 2 RBs being Portis and Parker, this might be my last hurrah.

I have been squeeking by with Parker and Bush. It can happen.

 

[OU#1]

As ctriopelle has noted, the line might not move all that much because of Warner alone. To wit, 1702 teams have Warner. Of them, 1537 of them already have a QB who scored 20+ points this week. While 1085 of them already have a QB who scored 30+ pts this week.So even if Warner throws up an avg. 25 pt night, the majority of owners still won't use him, or will only gain a few extra points.Owners with Warner who also own:475 with Cutler (-42.25)438 with Brees (-31)137 with McNabb (-30.20)35 with Peyton Manning (-30)54 with Rivers (-25.80)115 with Garrard (-24.90)252 with Ryan (-24.20)31 with Eli Manning (-20.75)

Guess I'm in the "165 other" crowd that has a QB who scored less than 20+. My other QB is Rodgers!

 

[kroyrunner89]

warner isn't doing much to help people out yet...

 

[meeka]

As ctriopelle has noted, the line might not move all that much because of Warner alone. To wit, 1702 teams have Warner. Of them, 1537 of them already have a QB who scored 20+ points this week. While 1085 of them already have a QB who scored 30+ pts this week.So even if Warner throws up an avg. 25 pt night, the majority of owners still won't use him, or will only gain a few extra points.Owners with Warner who also own:475 with Cutler (-42.25)438 with Brees (-31)137 with McNabb (-30.20)35 with Peyton Manning (-30)54 with Rivers (-25.80)115 with Garrard (-24.90)252 with Ryan (-24.20)31 with Eli Manning (-20.75)

Guess I'm in the "165 other" crowd that has a QB who scored less than 20+. My other QB is Rodgers!

Me too. Delhomme and Schuab

 

[kroyrunner89]

warner td #1...

 

[Slider]

As ctriopelle has noted, the line might not move all that much because of Warner alone. To wit, 1702 teams have Warner. Of them, 1537 of them already have a QB who scored 20+ points this week. While 1085 of them already have a QB who scored 30+ pts this week.So even if Warner throws up an avg. 25 pt night, the majority of owners still won't use him, or will only gain a few extra points.Owners with Warner who also own:475 with Cutler (-42.25)438 with Brees (-31)137 with McNabb (-30.20)35 with Peyton Manning (-30)54 with Rivers (-25.80)115 with Garrard (-24.90)252 with Ryan (-24.20)31 with Eli Manning (-20.75)

Guess I'm in the "165 other" crowd that has a QB who scored less than 20+. My other QB is Rodgers!

Me too. Delhomme and Schuab

I have Orton and Derek Anderson.

 

[RenegadeGM]

Forget Warner, it's Breaston that's going to cost people that are near the cutline.

 

[nashua55]

Forget Warner, it's Breaston that's going to cost people that are near the cutline.

399 teams have Breaston and 289 teams have Warner and Breaston.

 

[Ariakis]

Ouch 138 and then if Gore can have a big 2nd half whatever he can do above Derek Ward's 9.5 points. Gonna be close.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Forget Warner, it's Breaston that's going to cost people that are near the cutline.

399 teams have Breaston and 289 teams have Warner and Breaston.

 

[kroyrunner89]

please fitz, i need you to show up for me. give me some insurance, get a few more catches...

 

[BuckeyeArt]

As ctriopelle has noted, the line might not move all that much because of Warner alone. To wit, 1702 teams have Warner. Of them, 1537 of them already have a QB who scored 20+ points this week. While 1085 of them already have a QB who scored 30+ pts this week.So even if Warner throws up an avg. 25 pt night, the majority of owners still won't use him, or will only gain a few extra points.Owners with Warner who also own:475 with Cutler (-42.25)438 with Brees (-31)137 with McNabb (-30.20)35 with Peyton Manning (-30)54 with Rivers (-25.80)115 with Garrard (-24.90)252 with Ryan (-24.20)31 with Eli Manning (-20.75)

Some of those overlap. For example, 55 teams have Cutler, Brees, and Warner, 61 have Ryan, Brees, and Warner, and 52 have Ryan, Cutler, and Warner. So, there are a few less Warner teams with 20 and 30 points already.

 

[ctriopelle]

142.5 as of halftime...

 

[apalmer]

Stevie B. saving my bacon. Has me up to a much more comfortable 158.

 

[Tecumseh]

Breaston's just teasing me. I figure 2 more td's from Warner, and 2 each for Breaston and Bryant Johnson and I'll move on.

 

[nashua55]

Here is a pretty scary team:

Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70 27.05 35.05 21.10 34.70 10.55 32.35 0.00 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00 24.55 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05 28.90 Marion Barber $40 23.60 25.40 23.20 4.70 10.20 28.80 17.80 13.00 4.70 Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00 13.60 Ryan Torain $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60 19.10 Jamaal Charles $2 4.40 2.70 7.70 1.80 6.00 0.00 6.30 5.40 10.60 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60 15.80 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00 4.70 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10 0.00 Greg Jennings $22 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 19.40 6.20 0.00 10.90 Anthony Gonzalez $14 9.80 22.70 5.70 0.00 1.30 7.30 12.20 6.70 21.50 Donnie Avery $5 0.00 0.00 5.40 14.90 0.00 10.80 18.20 28.20 5.60 James Jones $5 0.00 12.90 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sinorice Moss $2 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Chris Cooley $19 2.20 14.70 17.70 8.80 28.90 13.20 9.20 16.40 19.80 Leonard Pope $5 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $5 6.00 14.00 10.00 0.00 17.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00 12.00 Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00 15.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 4.00 0.00 11.00 Carolina Panthers $3 9.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00A hot streak by some combination of Torain/Charles/Avery and this guy has a huge advantage over the rest of the field.

Wow, I love that team.Only a couple of minor misses on players, several very nice hits (so far), and great uniqueness.

Not surprisingly, this is the top team in the simulation to take it all.

The more I look at it, the more amazing it is.Torain, Rice, Charles, and Avery are just now starting to add their contributions to his weekly scores.

Wow, things can change quickly in the NFL. Torain was decent for 1 week but is gone for the year. The other 3 guys mentioned were non-factors today. Plus he had a bunch of guys lay eggs this week (Slaton, S.Smith, Jennings, Avery). Interested to see if he still makes the cut.

I agree, without adding it up, he isn't scoring a ton this week... could be close.

Quick estimate I'd say he's around 120-130. He'll be close.

he's at 138.55 +leonard pope +warner-42.25 He needs warner to have a bad game except for a couple of tosses to pope

Not looking good for this team. Is Pope playing? seems like everyone else on Arizona has caught a pass.

 

[ctriopelle]

FYI!

Organized Chaos just improved the team output format for the fantasystar database, so I intend to re-export all the valid teams next weekend and try to get a larger (i.e. more accurate) sample to run the predictions with as we get to the end. We currently have 153 live teams of the 2301 remaining, but will lose some this week after the cut. I'd really like to see if we can get most of the live teams in for next week, so we can be more confident in running live cutoff predictions as we get to the finals. It would be great if we had full participation as we hit the 50% cut weeks, as I'm sure everyone will be very interested to see if they will be making those monster cuts ASAP.

On a related note, I would appreciate it if anyone with "what-if" teams submitted could please alter their team to have either 21 or 23 players so that they are not exported as part of this sample (it will only export 22 player teams, so these teams will just get ignored on the cut calculations). I would also urge you to make sure your valid team has all the right players (i.e. the right Manning, the right Steve Smith), and that you haven't inadvertently over or underpopulated your roster. On the initial download I did, I'd guess at least 1/3 of the teams had errors that caused me to delete them from the cut tracker, even though you can still see them on the site when you look them up. I will be validating that the roster cost is <250, but other than that, I'm relying on the team owners to make sure the teams are actual entries.

For those that don't yet know where to input your team, please go to thefantasystar.com to sign up.

And oh yeah, with Breaston and Fitz having nice nights, looks like I'm gonna make it over 200 for the first time in many weeks! See you in week 11!

 

[CrossEyed]

FYI!

Organized Chaos just improved the team output format for the fantasystar database, so I intend to re-export all the valid teams next weekend and try to get a larger (i.e. more accurate) sample to run the predictions with as we get to the end. We currently have 153 live teams of the 2301 remaining, but will lose some this week after the cut. I'd really like to see if we can get most of the live teams in for next week, so we can be more confident in running live cutoff predictions as we get to the finals. It would be great if we had full participation as we hit the 50% cut weeks, as I'm sure everyone will be very interested to see if they will be making those monster cuts ASAP.

On a related note, I would appreciate it if anyone with "what-if" teams submitted could please alter their team to have either 21 or 23 players so that they are not exported as part of this sample (it will only export 22 player teams, so these teams will just get ignored on the cut calculations). I would also urge you to make sure your valid team has all the right players (i.e. the right Manning, the right Steve Smith), and that you haven't inadvertently over or underpopulated your roster. On the initial download I did, I'd guess at least 1/3 of the teams had errors that caused me to delete them from the cut tracker, even though you can still see them on the site when you look them up. I will be validating that the roster cost is <250, but other than that, I'm relying on the team owners to make sure the teams are actual entries.

For those that don't yet know where to input your team, please go to thefantasystar.com to sign up.

And oh yeah, with Breaston and Fitz having nice nights, looks like I'm gonna make it over 200 for the first time in many weeks! See you in week 11!

Show off. Kidding. Thanks for all the work you put into this.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

As ctriopelle has noted, the line might not move all that much because of Warner alone. To wit, 1702 teams have Warner. Of them, 1537 of them already have a QB who scored 20+ points this week. While 1085 of them already have a QB who scored 30+ pts this week.So even if Warner throws up an avg. 25 pt night, the majority of owners still won't use him, or will only gain a few extra points.Owners with Warner who also own:475 with Cutler (-42.25)438 with Brees (-31)137 with McNabb (-30.20)35 with Peyton Manning (-30)54 with Rivers (-25.80)115 with Garrard (-24.90)252 with Ryan (-24.20)31 with Eli Manning (-20.75)

Guess I'm in the "165 other" crowd that has a QB who scored less than 20+. My other QB is Rodgers!

Me too. Delhomme and Schuab

I have Orton and Derek Anderson.

Kitna and Edwards

 

[seventwentykay]

As ctriopelle has noted, the line might not move all that much because of Warner alone. To wit, 1702 teams have Warner. Of them, 1537 of them already have a QB who scored 20+ points this week. While 1085 of them already have a QB who scored 30+ pts this week.So even if Warner throws up an avg. 25 pt night, the majority of owners still won't use him, or will only gain a few extra points.Owners with Warner who also own:475 with Cutler (-42.25)438 with Brees (-31)137 with McNabb (-30.20)35 with Peyton Manning (-30)54 with Rivers (-25.80)115 with Garrard (-24.90)252 with Ryan (-24.20)31 with Eli Manning (-20.75)

Guess I'm in the "165 other" crowd that has a QB who scored less than 20+. My other QB is Rodgers!

Me too. Delhomme and Schuab

I have Orton and Derek Anderson.

Kitna and Edwards

Palmer and Schaub

 

[Erin Go Bragh]

Kitna and Schaub....and every last one of Warner's points tonight. I suppose if you can only have one active QB, he's about as good as it gets at this point in the season.

Oh yeah, I guess you can count me among those who don't think Warner's $5 was a waste. LOL!!!!

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Just for fun, here is a $45 team that would still be alive (yes, I counted to make sure, and this team makes the cut each week)...

QB - Kurt Warner - $5

RB - Ray Rice, Dominic Rhodes, Michael Pittman, Michael Bush, Steve Slaton - $16

WR - Antwaan Randle El, DeSean Jackson, Devery Henderson Antonio Bryant, Steve Breaston, Greg Camarillo, Mark Bradley - $15

TE - David Martin, Delanie Walker, Michael Gaines - $3

K - Matt Prater, Shaun Suisham, Joe Nedney - $3

D - ATL, SF, STL - $3

 

[Das Boot]

Oh yeah, I guess you can count me among those who don't think Warner's $5 was a waste. LOL!!!!

If lhucks was here, he'd tell you what a guppy move that would have been.

 

[Marauder]

150.25 with only Warner (-42.25) and a little nervous about it. A lot of potential points in the two remaining games.

Wow, this is going to be close.

 

[Das Boot]

Just for fun, here is a $45 team that would still be alive (yes, I counted to make sure, and this team makes the cut each week)...QB - Kurt Warner - $5RB - Ray Rice, Dominic Rhodes, Michael Pittman, Michael Bush, Steve Slaton - $16WR - Antwaan Randle El, DeSean Jackson, Devery Henderson Antonio Bryant, Steve Breaston, Greg Camarillo, Mark Bradley - $15TE - David Martin, Delanie Walker, Michael Gaines - $3K - Matt Prater, Shaun Suisham, Joe Nedney - $3D - ATL, SF, STL - $3

Impressive... without looking back, it doesn't look like the TEs are contributing much to that team.Warner huh?

 

[Erin Go Bragh]

Oh yeah, I guess you can count me among those who don't think Warner's $5 was a waste. LOL!!!!

If lhucks was here, he'd tell you what a guppy move that would have been.

Maybe he would be if he had bought Warner.

 

[Phil Elliott]

Sitting at 146.9 with Warner (-24.9) and Breaston (-2.80). Looks like some nice 200+ scores this week!

Warner adds 10 points and Breaston adds 17 points...174

 

[FUBAR]

Forget Warner, it's Breaston that's going to cost people that are near the cutline.

399 teams have Breaston and 289 teams have Warner and Breaston.

Breaston may be saving my butt right now

 

[fornov]

99.8 but...Warner (-0)Boldin (-0)James (-3.4)Breaston (-2.1)Let's go Cardinals!!!!

Warner = 34.4Boldin = 30.1James XXXBreaston = 19.1 (-2.1)fornov = 181.3 Week 11...Bring it on!!!

 

[Erin Go Bragh]

161.10 is the fantasystar is on the $$ and I'm too lazy to double check.

Hey Todd Heap and Jerry Porter...better late than never!!

 

[kroyrunner89]

166.9 in my hell week, i live to fight another day!

 

[ctriopelle]

152.3 is the final FS estimate. Good luck to all the survivors!

BTW there were some stupid high scores this week. The highest in the DB was 250.3...

 

[Limp Ditka]

Got huge weeks out of Warner, Jacobs, D Will, Keller, but Vincent Jackson was my highest scoring WR this week.

Think I'm done.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

228.05 and moving on to week 11

Used 9 times - Clinton Portis, Tony Gonzalez

Used 8 times - Steve Breaston

Used 7 times - None

Used 6 times - Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Slaton, Steve Smith, Jerricho Cotchery, Derrick Mason

Used 5 times - Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Kris Brown, Jason Hanson, NYJ D, MIA D

Used 4 times - Kurt Warner

Used 3 times - Leon Washington

Used 2 times - Ray Rice, Dustin Keller

Used 1 time - Jake Delhomme, Ricky Williams, Reggie Williams

Not yet used - Maurice Morris

I was looking to see where the $39 spent on Jake Delhomme, Ricky Williams, Reggie Williams, and Maurice Morris could've been better spent. Then I thought, hey wait a minute, I am still alive. They still have time to save my bacon, so maybe they are just waiting for the right moment. At least that's what I have to keep telling myself when I see them on my bench week after week.