PizzaDeliveryGuy
extra sausage
162
Thank you Warner and Breaston.
Thank you Warner and Breaston.
ctriopelle said:152.3 is the final FS estimate. Good luck to all the survivors!BTW there were some stupid high scores this week. The highest in the DB was 250.3...
250.35 to be exact.Boldin is really good.ctriopelle said:152.3 is the final FS estimate. Good luck to all the survivors!
Should survive by 4 points despite bad weeks by CJ3, Cotchery, Delhomme, SSmith, Portis (bye), and Holmes. I wonder how many others with those players got knocked out this week?Funny how I was really worried this week, but I finish with 181.40 despite Steve Slaton counting for my RB2 with 3.4points, Bironas counting as my K with 3 points...amazing what a good TE score does for your team!146.30 with Warner (-7.2), Breaston (-11.2), and SF D (-8.0). Thanks DeSean!Still waiting for the official pre-MNF word before I start counting my blessings.131.10 with Warner (-7.2), my flex left of either Breaston or DeSean (-3.3), and SF D (-8.0).Not feeling too confident but if I somehow make it it'll weed out other Slaton, Rice, CJ4.2, and Steve Smith owners.If it wasn't for Peterson, Mark Bradley, and Dustin Keller I'd be toast already. Jonathan Stewart and McFadden being dead weight will probably do me in.
Just a few random players that didn't score for me this week: Megatron, Steve Schmitty, Cotch, CJ4.2.Just a few random players that carried me this week: Mark Bradley, Brandon Jones, Steve Breaston, DeSean Jackson, and Dustin Keller. :(It doesn't hurt to have a guy named Peterson on your team either! 
Surv% N Surv Pct---------------------------90--99 332 307 92.580--89 509 424 83.370--79 458 350 76.460--69 371 244 65.850--59 244 137 56.140--49 159 71 44.730--39 119 43 36.120--29 67 18 26.910--19 30 9 30.0 0-- 9 16 3 18.8
looks like I am done. came in at 140.8. and of course the highest cutoff to date.
have fun guys. I had a blast.
Misses by 3 points... mostly thanks to a combined 7 POINTS from my K and D. (4 and 3).Who knew I'd miss Suisham more than Witten this week???
What a difference a week can make.Here is a pretty scary team:
A hot streak by some combination of Torain/Charles/Avery and this guy has a huge advantage over the rest of the field.Code:Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70 27.05 35.05 21.10 34.70 10.55 32.35 0.00 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00 24.55 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05 28.90 Marion Barber $40 23.60 25.40 23.20 4.70 10.20 28.80 17.80 13.00 4.70 Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00 13.60 Ryan Torain $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60 19.10 Jamaal Charles $2 4.40 2.70 7.70 1.80 6.00 0.00 6.30 5.40 10.60 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60 15.80 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00 4.70 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10 0.00 Greg Jennings $22 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 19.40 6.20 0.00 10.90 Anthony Gonzalez $14 9.80 22.70 5.70 0.00 1.30 7.30 12.20 6.70 21.50 Donnie Avery $5 0.00 0.00 5.40 14.90 0.00 10.80 18.20 28.20 5.60 James Jones $5 0.00 12.90 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sinorice Moss $2 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Chris Cooley $19 2.20 14.70 17.70 8.80 28.90 13.20 9.20 16.40 19.80 Leonard Pope $5 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $5 6.00 14.00 10.00 0.00 17.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00 12.00 Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00 15.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 4.00 0.00 11.00 Carolina Panthers $3 9.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00
#1 team is eliminated, #4 team makes the cut by 2 points and the #8 team makes it by 1.85. Meanwhile, teams 2302 & 2304 squeak through. Any given week, I guess.What a difference a week can make.Here is a pretty scary team:
A hot streak by some combination of Torain/Charles/Avery and this guy has a huge advantage over the rest of the field.Code:Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70 27.05 35.05 21.10 34.70 10.55 32.35 0.00 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00 24.55 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05 28.90 Marion Barber $40 23.60 25.40 23.20 4.70 10.20 28.80 17.80 13.00 4.70 Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00 13.60 Ryan Torain $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60 19.10 Jamaal Charles $2 4.40 2.70 7.70 1.80 6.00 0.00 6.30 5.40 10.60 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60 15.80 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00 4.70 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10 0.00 Greg Jennings $22 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 19.40 6.20 0.00 10.90 Anthony Gonzalez $14 9.80 22.70 5.70 0.00 1.30 7.30 12.20 6.70 21.50 Donnie Avery $5 0.00 0.00 5.40 14.90 0.00 10.80 18.20 28.20 5.60 James Jones $5 0.00 12.90 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sinorice Moss $2 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Chris Cooley $19 2.20 14.70 17.70 8.80 28.90 13.20 9.20 16.40 19.80 Leonard Pope $5 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $5 6.00 14.00 10.00 0.00 17.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00 12.00 Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00 15.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 4.00 0.00 11.00 Carolina Panthers $3 9.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00
152.05
Wow, 177.3123.1 with Westbrook (-4.8), Warner (-0.0), and Breaston (-1.9) to go. Not feeling too confident.
ctriopelle said:152.3 is the final FS estimate. Good luck to all the survivors!Should survive by 4 points despite bad weeks by CJ3, Cotchery, Delhomme, SSmith, Portis (bye), and Holmes. I wonder how many others with those players got knocked out this week?
I have all those guys except Holmes and I missed the cut by 2 points. Nugents injury hurt as I was kickerless this week but what really cost me was my last minute switch from Deshawn Jackson to Derek Hagan.Wow! Last man in over here with 153.00. On to the next week.
Well, it's 4 weeks later and it looks like taking 2 defenses was the slightly better move. 15% of all teams with 2 defenses are still alive, while only 11% of teams with 3 defenses are still alive.And the reason I'm bumping this now is because my Bills/Saints/Rams combo scored a total of 3 points for me in week 10. And I missed the cut.I agree 6 weeks is not really enough time to determine this. But I think over time a 2 defense approach has a better chance of biting you in the ###. But that is my humble opinion.I would be interested to see how this plays out for the rest of the year. Hopefully we're all still going in about 6 weeks and we can post updates.I "only" got 68 from Bears/Rams, but there are enough examples here to suggest that you don't get a higher expectation value for defensive scoring that justifies additional roster slots (beyond 2).[kicks himself for not going Bears/Jets]![]()

I have all those guys except Delhomme, but I survived thanks to my blue light specials that were all used this week such as Ricky Williams, Dominic Rhodes, Kevin Walter, Steve Breaston, Devery Henderson, and Dustin Keller.Should survive by 4 points despite bad weeks by CJ3, Cotchery, Delhomme, SSmith, Portis (bye), and Holmes. I wonder how many others with those players got knocked out this week?
The subscriber area of the site is blocked at my work but the forums are not. How many people got the hook this week? TIA
Week 9 trim to 2,300 teamsWeek 10 trim to 1,600 team
My team is very common, but chugging along.
% owned
85.2 Steve Slaton
76.4 Kurt Warner
66.0 Ricky Williams
57.7 Ray Rice
52.2 Brandon Marshall
48.6 Dustin Keller
36.3 Jay Cutler
32.1 Jerricho Cotchery
32.0 Clinton Portis
23.7 Jason Hanson
23.5 Steve Smith
20.4 Steve Breaston
17.0 Kris Brown
15.1 Derrick Mason
14.7 Jake Delhomme
12.0 Maurice Jones-Drew
12.0 Dolphins defense
9.2 Jets defense
7.0 Tony Gonzalez
7.0 Maurice Morris
5.6 Reggie Williams
4.2 Leon Washington
I've been rooting for bad weeks from some of my top owned guys, hoping to whittle down the field. But at this point, I think anyone over 30% should only be rooted for (unless they aren't on your roster). They are simply owned by too many teams to whittle them down enough to make a difference. That said, I guess I have to root against my rare guys. So, as much as it hurts to type this, I am putting a whammy on everyone from Derrick Mason to Leon Washington over the next few weeks.
Of course, high scores from any of your players will help for that particular week. But the only way to distance yourself from the herd is to have your rare players get "rarer" up until week 14, then have them explode from weeks 14 thru 16. If you have noticed, the most common players are getting even more common as weeks go on. By week 14, I bet Steve Slaton will be owned by over 90%. When that happens, having him from weeks 14-16 will not matter, because almost everyone else will too. The winner of this thing is likely a person with alot of common guys, and a few rare studs. It's gonna be those rare studs that will make the difference. And to think, I made the cut by exactly half a point in week 1!DW I don't think I understand. Wouldn't huge weeks by your ground gainers ("GG") low % guys help you more than hurt?
My team is very common, but chugging along.
% owned
85.2 Steve Slaton
76.4 Kurt Warner
66.0 Ricky Williams
57.7 Ray Rice
52.2 Brandon Marshall
48.6 Dustin Keller
36.3 Jay Cutler
32.1 Jerricho Cotchery
32.0 Clinton Portis
23.7 Jason Hanson
23.5 Steve Smith
20.4 Steve Breaston
17.0 Kris Brown
15.1 Derrick Mason
14.7 Jake Delhomme
12.0 Maurice Jones-Drew
12.0 Dolphins defense
9.2 Jets defense
7.0 Tony Gonzalez
7.0 Maurice Morris
5.6 Reggie Williams
4.2 Leon Washington
I've been rooting for bad weeks from some of my top owned guys, hoping to whittle down the field. But at this point, I think anyone over 30% should only be rooted for (unless they aren't on your roster). They are simply owned by too many teams to whittle them down enough to make a difference. That said, I guess I have to root against my rare guys. So, as much as it hurts to type this, I am putting a whammy on everyone from Derrick Mason to Leon Washington over the next few weeks.
Looking forward to the updated version of thisHow are you running the simulations? How do the player's score fluctuate in the simulation?Another pretty good week for the simulator thingy:
Code:Surv% N Surv Pct---------------------------90--99 332 307 92.580--89 509 424 83.370--79 458 350 76.460--69 371 244 65.850--59 244 137 56.140--49 159 71 44.730--39 119 43 36.120--29 67 18 26.910--19 30 9 30.0 0-- 9 16 3 18.8

What a difference a week can make.Here is a pretty scary team:
A hot streak by some combination of Torain/Charles/Avery and this guy has a huge advantage over the rest of the field.Code:Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70 27.05 35.05 21.10 34.70 10.55 32.35 0.00 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00 24.55 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05 28.90 Marion Barber $40 23.60 25.40 23.20 4.70 10.20 28.80 17.80 13.00 4.70 Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00 13.60 Ryan Torain $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60 19.10 Jamaal Charles $2 4.40 2.70 7.70 1.80 6.00 0.00 6.30 5.40 10.60 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60 15.80 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00 4.70 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10 0.00 Greg Jennings $22 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 19.40 6.20 0.00 10.90 Anthony Gonzalez $14 9.80 22.70 5.70 0.00 1.30 7.30 12.20 6.70 21.50 Donnie Avery $5 0.00 0.00 5.40 14.90 0.00 10.80 18.20 28.20 5.60 James Jones $5 0.00 12.90 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sinorice Moss $2 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Chris Cooley $19 2.20 14.70 17.70 8.80 28.90 13.20 9.20 16.40 19.80 Leonard Pope $5 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $5 6.00 14.00 10.00 0.00 17.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00 12.00 Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00 15.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 4.00 0.00 11.00 Carolina Panthers $3 9.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00

The extreme teams...
1QB - 3 teams left (2 teams with Warner, 1 team with Brees)
2RB - 1 team left (this dude scored 195 pts with no RB's this week - Portis and Graham)
3WR - 3 teams left (one of them has been taking a goose egg with Burleson since week 2)
1TE - 34 teams left (none of them own Jason Witten or Antonio Gates)
1K - 34 teams left (2 teams own Nugent)
1D - 50 teams left (2 teams only spent a buck, and one of those teams is FBG's own Andy Hicks)
6QB - 1 team left (extreme to the max, as he counts both as one of the 34 teams with only 1TE (Keller) and 1K (Prater)
9RB - 3 teams left (each spent over $100; one of them had his 9RB's score a combined total of 24pts)
11WR - 1 team left (only WR he hasn't used yet is Galloway, who is his 3rd most expensive; also a 1K and 1D team)
4TE - 24 teams left (we lost our last remaining 5TE team this week)
8K - 1 team left (no other team has 7K's, and only 5 teams with 6K's, but he's no fourteenkickerguy)
7D - 1 team left (his IQ must be in the seventies to take 7D's)
- actually I can't count I only have 8
I am feeling pretty good, my team seems pretty unique.
Bolded players cost > $10
broken down by % of teams alive that have same players (75/50/25%)
85% RB Steve Slaton
77% QB Kurt Warner
----------------------------------------------
66% RB Ricky Williams
58% RB Ray Rice
----------------------------------------------
45% WR Kevin Walter
42% WR Calvin Johnson
28% PK Matt Prater
----------------------------------------------
20% WR Steve Breaston
19% WR Santonio Holmes
19% RB DeAngelo Williams
15% TE Anthony Fasano
15% DT Minnesota Vikings
14% WR Muhsin Muhammad
14% RB Michael Turner
10% TE Zach Miller
9% DT New York Jets
7% RB Jonathan Stewart
7% RB Maurice Morris
7% RB Selvin Young
3% WR Andre Johnson
3% QB Chad Pennington
3% PK Matt Stover
Ditto.The subscriber area of the site is blocked at my work but the forums are not. How many people got the hook this week? TIA
bumpThe subscriber area of the site is blocked at my work but the forums are not. How many people got the hook this week? TIAWeek 9 trim to 2,300 teamsWeek 10 trim to 1,600 team
I wasnt going for humor or a dig at Drinen. I was just pointing out how quickly things can change in a format like the contest. That guy's team did look formidable as we headed into the final 7 weeks of the contest.What a difference a week can make.![]()
Considering its 2 of 9 teams that have survived, probably not much.Not sure what this tells us about the contest but teams with Romo, Tomlinson, and Westbrook ($137 cap total) have a 22.22% survival rate thus far.
might want to give an honorable mention to this team:2 QB's, Romo and Warner--means he had no QB in Week 7 and only 1 since.The extreme teams...
1QB - 3 teams left (2 teams with Warner, 1 team with Brees)
2RB - 1 team left (this dude scored 195 pts with no RB's this week - Portis and Graham)
3WR - 3 teams left (one of them has been taking a goose egg with Burleson since week 2)
1TE - 34 teams left (none of them own Jason Witten or Antonio Gates)
1K - 34 teams left (2 teams own Nugent)
1D - 50 teams left (2 teams only spent a buck, and one of those teams is FBG's own Andy Hicks)
6QB - 1 team left (extreme to the max, as he counts both as one of the 34 teams with only 1TE (Keller) and 1K (Prater)
9RB - 3 teams left (each spent over $100; one of them had his 9RB's score a combined total of 24pts)
11WR - 1 team left (only WR he hasn't used yet is Galloway, who is his 3rd most expensive; also a 1K and 1D team)
4TE - 24 teams left (we lost our last remaining 5TE team this week)
8K - 1 team left (no other team has 7K's, and only 5 teams with 6K's, but he's no fourteenkickerguy)
7D - 1 team left (his IQ must be in the seventies to take 7D's)
I am at 135 with Warner (-5.6)Another week of dancing with the cut line.Unofficial pre-MNF cut: 135.60
Kurt. Best $5 I spent.Nice week, and yes, you could. Of course, if Colston doesn't catch fire, Portis is slowed by his injury (or doesn't play at all) and TJ falls back to an average game against the Pats, you could be scratching to reach the cutoff with the rest of us. That's the wicked (and wonderful) thing about this contest--you can be riding high one week and eliminated the next if things break wrong.#1 overrall for week 10 with 250.55.If Colston catches fire, I could have a very scary team.
Supposedly Nugent is close to coming back and the Jets are planning to put him back in for Feely, maybe even this week. So don't give up yet!It is funny that Nugent is still the most widely owned K even though he has only scored 2 points all year. I guess picking the Jets K up for $1 was a shark move because people who did so are still alive even though he hasn't helped them at all (also I'm sure a lot of people picked him in the first place whether they survived or not).Still in this thing without a kicker (Nugent)...can't imagine I will last much longer, but this was my best week thus far, so you never know!